Red vs. Yellow Confrontation: A Wrong Turn in Thailand's Road to Democracy

Red vs. Yellow Confrontation: A Wrong Turn in Thailand's Road to Democracy
United Daily News editorial (Taipei, Taiwan, ROC)
A Translation
April 16, 2009


The shockwaves from last year's Yellow Shirt seige of the Prime Minister's Office and occupation of the National Airport have yet to subside. Several months have passed, and it's the Red Shirts' turn to disrupt the ASEAN summit, raid the Ministry of the Interior, and set fires in the streets of the capital. Thailand's vicious political clashes involve rival political camps alternately taking to the streets to vent their anger. This has not merely damaged the nation's peaceful image, it has sown the seeds of mutual confrontation and mutual hatred.

Recently Thailand's democracy has been a horsedrawn carriage that has taken a wrong turn. Having gone down the wrong fork in the road, it is unable to find its way. Politicians with selfish motives have used a basically gentle people as tools in their political struggles. The King of Thailand, who has long been a stabilizing factor, has unfairly been given a political label. The military is adopting a wait-and-see attitude. It is sitting back watching the social chaos, hoping to profit politically. The greatest irony is that while all of Thailand is in turmoil, former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, in exile because of his corruption, is laughing as he manipulates the conflict from overseas.

Thailand's Red Shirts and Yellow Shirts have taken to the streets one after the other. Recently a number of nations have undergone largely similar democratic "color revolutions." One. They do not involve people rising up as one in protest against authoritarianism, but masses taking to the streets in support of their own political parties. Ordinary citizens are mere pawns in the struggle between politicians. Two. Protest tactics have gone beyond simple pro-democracy demonstrations. They now include the deliberate targeting of international airports, political and economic summits, and international hotels, by crowds numbering in the tens of thousands, that can easily harm the nation's image. Three. No holds barred protest tactics divide society and breed mutual hatred. Meanwhile the politicians who fomented the unrest remain above the fray.

Today Thailand finds itself in an impasse. The main reason is that three years ago Thaksin's corruption was not dealt with effectively, either politically or legally. The military resorted to a politically expedient coup d'etat to force Thaksin out of office. The courts twice ruled the elections invalid. This sowed the seeds of future instability. Unfortunately, the corrupt and derelict Thaksin is a charismatic political leader. He enjoys broad support in rural villages. He even dares to challenge the authority of the royal family. Even in exile, he has massive financial resources and political momentum, enough to mobilize domestic forces to do his bidding. Take one exiled politician with unquenched ambitions. Add masses with irrepressible political passions, a ruling administration impotent in the face of crisis, and vested interests content to watch from the sidelines, and you have the recipe for today's out-of-control Thailand.

The Filipino people took to the streets and overthrew the Marcos dictatorship. Amidst the carnival atmosphere of "People Power," myths about democracy gained currency. Developing nations competed with each other to follow suit. But from what we have seen of the Yellow Shirts and Red Shirts, Thailand's "People Power" revolution has gone awry. The people have unwittingly become the pawns of politicians. They have fallen into the politicians vortex of hate. Political knots are harder and harder to untie. The nation is finding it harder and harder to fulfill its potential.

The Red Shirts have temporarily retreated. But the chaos that forced the ASEAN Summit to adjourn early has already embarrassed current Prime Minister Abhisit Vejajiva. Thaksin, who sits on piles of gold and silver but who cannot return home, will miss no opportunity to induce the masses to fight his proxy war. Meanwhile, Bhumibol Adulyadej, the aging King of Thailand, is finding it harder and harder to maintain the credibility of the royal family amidst the chaotic transition to democracy.

An even more serious problem is the people of Thailand have misunderstood democracy. In addition to the pro-Thaksin Red Shirts, the anti-Thaksin, royalist Yellow Shirts, the pro-Abhisit Vejajiva Blue Shirts have recently emerged. Reds, Yellows, and Blues struggle against each other. Is Thailand's democracy nothing more than a chess game between rival political camps?

Think back to the Red Shirt "anti-corruption, depose Ah-Bian" movement on Taiwan. Although the DPP ridiculed it as a failed middle class revolution, one millions people never lost control or erupted into violent conflict. Crowds outraged by corruption exercised restraint and maintained their reason. In the end, they used the ballot box to settle disputes. Is that not something Republic of China citizens can be proud of?

If a nation takes a wrong turn at a critical juncture in its development, who knows how much time and effort must be expended to get back on track? It is hard to believe Thailand has spun its wheels for three years. The Thai Baht has been devalued. Tourists have been frightened away. The economy has stagnated. By contrast, neighboring Indonesia underwent a period of intense turbulence following the end of Suharto's dictatorial rule. But in recent years anti-corruption, counter-terrorism, and economic development are back on track, leaving the international community amazed. The ruling party recently won re-election. If this trend continues, in a few years Thailand and Indonesia may switch places!

紅黃對抗，泰國走岔的民主路
【聯合報╱社論】
2009.04.16 05:19 am

去年底黃衫軍包圍總理府、佔領國家機場的驚魂未定，事隔數月，換成紅衫軍直搗東協峰會會場、突襲內政部，並在首都街頭隨意縱火。泰國的政治惡鬥，演變成不同陣營的民眾輪流上街示威洩憤，不僅讓這個國家一向的和平形象付諸一炬，更深深埋下人民彼此仇恨、對立的種子。

近幾年，泰國的民主像一輛轉錯彎的馬車，駛進岔路後，再也找不回方向感。各懷鬼胎的政治人物，將素來溫和的人民當成動員鬥爭工具；一向能穩定大局的泰皇，被染上偏袒的色彩標籤；軍方在其間投機觀望，等待自己的機會，坐視社會脫序。最諷刺的是，當整個泰國為此蒙羞動盪，因貪瀆而流亡的前總理塔信卻在海外遙控，笑看國內的連天烽火。

泰國的紅衫軍與黃衫軍的輪流演出，與近年世界各國標榜「顏色革命」的民主運動其實已大相徑庭。第一，這已非人民共同反抗威權的行動，而是群眾上街力挺自己傾心的政黨，人民只是政治人物相爭的棋子。第二，抗爭手段均已跨越單純的民主示威，刻意選擇國際機場、國際峰會、國際飯店下手，幾萬人即輕易賠掉國家形象。第三，在不擇手段的抗爭中，人民互相仇視，社會被分化，煽風點火的政客卻置身事外。

泰國之所以陷入今天的僵局，主要原因在，三年前塔信的貪瀆問題，無法透過有效的政治及司法途徑處理，軍方卻採取政變的便宜手段逼走塔信，司法又兩度判決選舉結果失效，埋下日後一波波動盪的因子。不幸的是，貪瀆的塔信卻是具有民粹魅力的領袖，在農村地區擁有廣大的支持群眾，甚至敢於挑戰皇室權威。而即使流亡海外，他仍擁有龐大的財力和聲勢，足以動員國內勢力為其聲張旗鼓。野心未盡的流亡政客，激情難耐的民眾，缺乏作為的現任政府，再加上袖手旁觀的既得利益者，共同造就了今天失控的泰國。

當年菲律賓人民從街頭推翻了馬可仕的獨裁統治，在嘉年華氣氛中締造了「人民民主」，傳為民主佳話，許多開發中國家曾競相仿效。但從黃衫軍和紅衫軍的表現看，泰國卻對「人民民主」作了變調的演出，人民淪為政客的馬前卒而不自知，深陷政客布置的仇恨漩渦。政治糾結愈發無解，國家大局越難開展。

對現任總理艾比希而言，紅衫軍雖暫時退場，但這場亂局和東協峰會被迫停開，已夠他灰頭土臉了。對坐擁金山銀山卻有家歸不得的塔信而言，一定還會伺機召喚國內的群眾，進行他的隔空戰鬥。對於年事漸高的泰皇蒲美蓬，如何在民主轉型的亂局中確保皇室一言九鼎的地位，似乎也越來越為不易。

更大的問題，在泰國人民的民主認知。除了支持塔信的「紅衫軍」，反塔信、擁泰皇的群眾是身著黃衣的「黃衫軍」，曼谷最近更出現擁艾希比的「藍衫軍」。紅黃藍的對抗，如果只是充當各種政治力量的政爭棋子，泰國的民主政治有什麼厚度可言？

回看當年台灣紅衫軍的反貪倒扁，雖被綠營譏為失敗的中產階級革命，但百萬人的隊伍從未恃眾而失控暴衝，洶湧的反貪民氣始終保持節制與理性，最後在投票箱前平定了大局，那才是台灣可堪自豪的民主品質，不是嗎？

一個國家的發展，在重要關頭轉錯一個彎，不曉得要耗掉多少時間精力才走得回去。泰國這三年的耗損，難以想像，泰銖貶值，觀光客卻步，經濟發展停滯。相對的，鄰近的印尼在擺脫蘇哈托的獨裁統治後，雖曾歷經一段激烈的動盪盤整，但近幾年在肅貪、反恐及經濟發展上漸漸走上軌道，讓國際社會刮目相看，其執政黨也在日前的選舉蟬聯獲勝。照這樣的路走下去，泰國和印尼幾年後的地位將易地而處了！