Local Elections in the North and South

Local Elections in the North and South
A Preview of the Presidential Election?
United Daily News editorial (Taipei, Taiwan, ROC)
A Translation
April 2, 2009

Tsai Ing-wen appears to have found the political lever she needs. Su Tseng-chang's campaign for Taipei County Commissioner will be the engine that allows the Democratic Progressive Party to make a comeback. The nomination of Li Chun-yi for Tainan County Commissioner, and rejection of Chen Tang-shan, will be the big move that draws a line in the sand between the DPP and Ah-Bian.

Chen Tang-shan is seen as Chen Shui-bian's proxy. Chen Tang-shan sees himself as Chen Shui-bian's proxy. Therefore the nomination of Chen Tang-shan has become the acid test for whether Tsai Ing-wen can get Chen Shui-bian off her back. Chen Tang-shan enjoys a wide lead in the polls. Yet Tsai Ing-wen has nominated Li Chun-yi. She runs the risk that Chen Shui-bian may enter the Legislative by-election. Her decision means she has steeled her nerves. No wonder Tainan County Legislator Wang Hsing-nan says "The DPP will be officially divided."

Su Tseng-chang is expected to run for Taipei County Commissioner. This probably motivated Tsai Ing-wen to reject Chen Tang-shan. Hopes that the DPP can make a comeback in Taipei County, and distance itself from Ah-Bian in Tainan County, have suddenly provided her with a lever and a clarion call. This may provide the Democratic Progressive Party with the strategic framework for its campaigns in the year end County and Municipal Elections. Their political calculus is that distancing the party from Ah-Bian will help the DPP make a successful comeback, and conversely, making a successful comeback will help the DPP distance itself from Ah-Bian.

By contrast, the KMT finds itself on the horns of a dilemma, in both Taipei County and Tainan County. Chou Hsi-wei in Taipei County is no longer politically viable, but cannot be persuaded to withdraw. As for Tainan County, if Chen Tang-shan and Li Chun-yi engage in a mutually-destructive duel to the death, the KMT may reap the rewards. But the KMT lacks a candidate in Tainan County able to take advantage of the opportunity. The KMT fears it will lose in Taipei County. The KMT fears it can't win in Tainan County. If it watches idly as it loses in Taipei County and fails to win in Tainan County, the Democratic Progressive Party's leverage in both the North and the South will break the KMT's hold on the larger scenario. The consequences of such a strategic reversal of fortune could be disastrous.

The Battle over Taipei County will be a preliminary skirmish in the Battle for the 2012 Presidency. Add to this the impact of the Tainan County Commissioner Election. Tsai Ing-wen is hoping for a succession of victories, beginning with Su Tseng-chang winning the Taipei County Election, successfully distancing the DPP from Ah-bian, and finally, regaining the Presidency in 2012. By contrast, the KMT's strategic objective must be to disrupt any such chain of victories. Su Tseng-chang must not be allowed to win Taipei County. The DPP must not be allowed to regroup. The DPP must not be allowed to launch its campaign for the Presidency in advance of 2012. If the KMT cannot defeat the DPP's strategy, the consequences will be disastrous.

The current scenario is the result of Tsai Ing-wen's willingness to face down Chen Tang-shan despite his high poll numbers. She is doing so to establish her authority within the party, and to assert her right to set the party's agenda. Conversely, the KMT can neither boost Chou Hsi-wei's dismal prospects, nor persuade him to withdraw from the race. It has lost its leadership status. and needless to say, its ability to set the party's agenda.

The County Commissioner and City Mayor Elections have been elevated to the status of preliminary skirmishs to the 2012 presidential election. The Tainan County Election has become an indicator of whether the DPP can distance itself from Ah-Bian. Therefore the DPP and the KMT are under pressure to win at all cost. For Tsai Ing-wen, Taipei County must be won. Only then can the DPP obtain a powerful political engine. The function of the Tainan County Election meanwhile, is merely to deny the KMT the opportunity to disrupt the DPP's political momentum. It is also an opportunity to draw a line in sand between the DPP and Ah-Bian. In doing so, it must not split the DPP. Conversely, if the Democratic Progressive Party loses Taipei County and Tainan County, Tsai Ing-wen will suffer a crushing defeat. The Democratic Progressive Party will be plunged into even greater crisis. By contrast, if Ma Ying-jeou loses Taipei County, the Democratic Progressive Party will launch its 2012 presidential campaign in advance, and the political scene will have no peace.

If the DPP begins its 2012 presidential campaign with the County Commissioner and City Mayor Elections, the political scene on Taiwan will become even more chaotic. For the KMT, increased social unrest will make governing the nation even more difficult. For the DPP, it has yet to sort out its position on the nation's identity and cross-Strait policy. If it touches off a battle for the 2012 presidency under such circumstances, it will have a difficult time transitioning from its current internal "balance of terror." Even assuming it succeeds, it may not be able to bolster the strength of the Democratic Progressive Party. It may not be able to improve Taiwan's plight.

Compare Ma Ying-jeou to Tsai Ing-wen. Tsai can nominate Su Tseng-chang in Taipei County. She can force Chen Tang-shan to withdraw in Tainan County. She has demonstrated that she can maintain party discipline. She can maintain the initiative. She can set the agenda, and put the ball in Ma Ying-jeou's court. By contrast, Ma Ying-jeou cannot deal with Chou Hsi-wei. He cannot deal with Tainan County. He watches idly as Tsai Ing-wen lobs the ball into his court. Surely he isn't going to stand there doing nothing as the ball caroms all over the court?

Whether the 2012 presidential election is moved up or not, the Taipei County and Tainan County Commissioner Elections will be watershed moments.

南北帶動 二○一二總統大選提前開打？
【聯合報╱社論】
2009.04.02 04:50 am


蔡英文似乎已為她的政治槓桿找到了支點。蘇貞昌參選台北縣長是帶領民進黨「捲土重來」的火車頭，台南縣長候選人提名李俊毅（棄陳唐山）則是「與扁切割」的大動作。

陳唐山被陳水扁視為代理人，陳唐山本身也以陳水扁的代理人自居。因而，是否提名陳唐山，成為蔡英文能否擺脫陳水扁的指標。蔡英文在陳唐山民調大幅領先的情勢下提名李俊毅，且冒著陳水扁可能參與立委補選的風險；這樣的決定可說是吃了秤砣鐵了心。難怪南縣立委王幸男說：「民進黨將正式分裂。」

蘇貞昌可望參選台北縣長，應是促成蔡英文排除陳唐山的支撐因素。一時之間，台北縣的「捲土重來」之勢，與台南縣的「與扁切割」之勢，互為支點，互成犄角，堪可構成民進黨年底縣市長選舉的主要戰略架構。其考量是，與扁切割有助捲土重來，捲土重來有助與扁切割。

相對而言，國民黨在台北縣及台南縣均陷困境。台北縣的周錫瑋，扶不起，勸不退；至於台南縣，則若出現陳唐山、李俊毅鷸蚌相爭之局，應是國民黨漁翁得利的機會，但國民黨在南縣卻似無足可趁勢崛起的人選。倘若國民黨在北縣有會輸的感覺而眼睜睜看著它輸掉，而在南縣有贏的可能亦眼睜睜看著它贏不了；則國民黨支撐大局的政治槓桿，將因民進黨南北兩個支點的衝擊，而告摧折斷裂，從而大局翻盤，後果不堪設想。

北縣之戰，就是二○一二年總統大選的前哨戰。如今，加上南縣的對照效應，蔡英文欲將「蘇貞昌北縣勝選／與扁切割／進軍二○一二」連成一氣。相對而言，國民黨的戰略目標，自會思考及時將「蘇貞昌北縣勝選／民進黨整合／民進黨提前發動二○一二總統大選」三者的連鎖效應切斷，否則後果將難以收拾。

今日情勢之所以形成，關鍵在於：蔡英文能對民調高的陳唐山開刀，以取得自己在黨內與黨際的議題設定權；而國民黨對民調低落的周錫瑋，扶不起，勸不退，完全失去領導的主控地位，亦當然失去了黨內及黨際的議題設定權。

由於已將縣市長選舉拉高到「二○一二總統大選前哨戰」的高度，且又因南縣的選局已成為民進黨能否與扁切割的指標；使民進黨與國民黨在此次選舉皆有非贏不可的壓力。對蔡英文而言，北縣固然要贏，才能獲得高動能的政治引擎；而南縣之役，則非但不能給國民黨趁虛蹈隙之機，且要趁勢與扁切割，又不能分裂民進黨。反過來說，若民進黨輸掉北縣南縣，蔡英文固然一敗塗地，民進黨亦將陷入更大危機。相對而言，馬英九若輸了北縣南縣，則將使民進黨操持提早發動二○一二總統大選的主動地位，政局恐將無有寧日。

二○一二年總統大選若提前在縣市長選舉後開打，台灣的政局不免更形扭曲。就國民黨而言，一旦社會衝突升高、社會動盪加劇，施政環境的變數亦將相對增加，必將更感左支右絀。至於民進黨，迄今在國家定位及兩岸政策上皆尚未整理出頭緒，若就此掀起二○一二大選的大潮，則在黨內「恐怖均衡」的妥協中，轉型恐更難期待，即使能有一時的突破，卻未必能改善民進黨的體質，因而亦終不能改變台灣的難局。

若以蔡英文與馬英九對比。蔡能在北縣推出蘇貞昌，又在南縣逼退陳唐山，均顯示她這個黨主席，至少在黨內及黨際，操持了主動，掌握了議題設定權，並將球打到馬英九的那一邊；相對而言，馬英九卻似不知如何處理周錫瑋，也對南縣的新形勢拿不出新對策，眼看著蔡英文將球擊來，總不能讓觀賽者覺得只見球在滿地亂滾吧！

二○一二總統大選是否提前開打，北縣南縣的縣長選舉將是決定性的因素。