The New Cabinet Must Do the Right Thing at the Right Time

The New Cabinet Must Do the Right Thing at the Right Time
China Times editorial (Taipei, Taiwan, ROC)
A Translation
September 11, 2009

After more than 400 stormy days, Liu Chao-hsuan has gracefully stepped down as premier. As he departed, he said he "would not comment on the merits or demerits of his time in office." Obviously, at the moment of his departure, Liu Chao-hsuan had his own views bout his performance in office, and that it was at considerable variance with the views of others. A fair evaluation of the Liu Cabinet's performance probably requires that we judge Liu based on his own expectations. Indeed, "doing the right thing at the right time" is the key to modern leadership. A sense of timing is an art. Premier Liu may have done the right thing, but whether he did it at the right time is another question.

The public had high expectations of a cabinet comprised of professors and university presidents. But by the time Liu Chao-hsuan was forced to step down, the consensus was he "did not feel the people's pain." Just exactly where did the Liu cabinet go wrong? Had a once professional and capable Liu Chao-hsuan really lost his touch? American sociologist Samuel N. Eisenstadt made a detailed study of the power held by American presidents. He noted that the public arrives at its own evaluation of political leaders very early on. These leaders cannot avoid inevitable ups and downs in their approval ratings. Public expectations of politicians have changed. Therefore Ma Ying-jeou, who demonstrated commendable restraint in the use of presidential power, is now ridiculed as timid and overcautious. Liu Chao-hsuan, who was characterized as professional and capable, is now characterized as elitist and arrogant.

Changing times have generated this gap in perceptions. During May of last year, oil prices skyrocketed. The cost of living rose in response. The Liu cabinet had alreay committed itself to the president's energy conservation and carbon reduction programs. The energy industry, in response to long-term considerations, was undergoing transformation. But immediately upon taking office, Premier Liu was forced to increase oil prices. This provoked public discontent. Even pan-blue legislators refused to support the administration. The Liu cabinet's approval ratings immediately tumbled.

Was it right to increase oil prices? To be fair, in terms of industrial development and fairness, it was the right thing to do. But was the timing correct? That is a matter of opinion. The Liu cabinet was thinking of the economy as a whole. For the sake of long-term development, it was necessary to endure short-term pain. Therefore it was not concerned about short-term controversy. But the political environment is undergoing rapid change. For pundits who appear before the cameras on a daily basis, a week is considered long-term, and is enough to seal a politician's fate.

The Liu cabinet was lambasted for getting haircuts or celebrating Father's Day during a hurricane. But it would be fairer to evaluate the Liu cabinet's performance based on its six major industries and long-term development policies. These all deserve affirmation. The past is past. We are now in a different place. When evaluating the Liu cabinet and the prospects of the new cabinet, we must avoid falling into another trap. We must, as the old saying goes, avoid "throwing the baby out with the bath water."

Why do we need such a reminder? The main reason is that the public likes the Wu cabinet mainly because it has mastered the art of timing, and has a better sense of proportion. For example, on his very first day, Premier Wu Den-yih floated the concept of the "street economy." He knew the Liu cabinet had been criticized as too theory-oriented, Therefore he immediately said, "Economic statistics are important, But the stock market, the restaurant business and the number of container trucks are indices more relevant to people's lives." The low-keyed Liu cabinet eschewed political theater. By contrast, as soon as Wu Den-yih took office, the first thing he did was to visit the disaster areas and spend the night with disaster victims.

The Wu cabinet has deliberately contrasted itself with its predecessor. So has much of the public. The public is looking at these two cabinets, before and after, in terms of their pros and cons. For example, it is contrasting the professional nature of the Liu cabinet with the political nature of the Wu cabinet. It is contrasting the bureaucratic style of Liu cabinet with the public relations style of the Wu cabinet. It is contrasting the professional attitude of the Liu cabinet with the election-savvy attitude of the Wu cabinet. Such appraisals may or may not be fair. The biggest problem is that when both the public and Kuomintang party and government officials make such black and white comparisions, this may inadvertently repudiate the virtues of the Liu cabinet. When everyone expects the new cabinet to consider public preferences, won't it wind up governing according to the polls? Won't it fail to take into account long-term national development?

We take comfort in the fact that President Ma Ying-jeou has not fallen entirely into such a "black or white" myth. He did not follow the herd. He did not fall back on a successful precedent. He did not appoint an elective leader as Minister of the Interior. Instead, he appointed Chiang Yi-hua, who hails from academia. Whether this will turn out to be a blessing or a curse is still unknown. But at least it shows that President Ma and the new cabinet have not fallen completely into the trap of an "election-savvy cabinet."

The Liu cabinet, which has just stepped down, tried to do the right thing. But it tripped over the issue of timing. The Wu cabinet is next. it has mastered the art of timing. But can it seize the opportunity to do the right thing? That will determine whether the new cabinet will be given a positive evaluation.

中時電子報 新聞
中國時報 　2009.09.11
社論－新閣務必要在對的時間做對的事
本報訊

經歷四百多個波濤洶湧的日子後，劉兆玄最後瀟灑的下台一鞠躬，留下「不爭一時毀譽」的告別感言，很顯然，到了離去的一刻，劉兆玄的自我評價，和外界還是有著不小的落差。也許，此時此刻要公平的評價劉內閣作為，最適切的標準，莫過於劉兆玄的自我期許:「在這一段對的時間做了對的事」；確實，現代領導的祕訣，一言以蔽之，可以說就是掌握時間感的藝術，劉內閣這一段時間以來，也許是做了對的事，但是否在對的時機點，就是另一個問題了。

從眾人期許的博士、校長內閣，在下台前竟然得到「不知民間疾苦」的評價，劉內閣到底出了什麼問題？果真是當年專業、能力強的劉兆玄寶刀已老？精研總統權力的美國學者艾森斯達指出，政治領導人的評價，民眾早有定見，但是，這些領導人卻終究無法迴避民意支持度高低起伏的命運，其中關鍵在於，民眾對政治人物的期待改變了；因此，過去是對權力節制而受稱道的馬英九，現在則遭謹小慎微之譏；過去以專業有魄力著稱的劉兆玄，現在卻淪為菁英的傲慢。

這種因時間感而產生的落差，劉內閣一上任就立即面對。去年五月前油價早已開始狂飆，民生物價也跟著水漲船高，但是，一心要落實總統節能減碳政策的劉內閣，卻在能源產業轉型的長期考量下，一上任就機動調漲油價，不但惹來民怨，當然連藍營立委都不支持，劉內閣的民意支持度也立即重挫。

機動調漲油價對不對？持平而論，無論是就產業發展還是公平性的角度，這都是正確的事，但是時機是否正確，就是見仁見智；劉內閣有著總體經濟的思考思維，為了整體社會長期的發展，歷經短期的痛苦是必須的，因此，他也不在意短期的紛紛擾擾，但以現代快速變化的政治環境、及每日登場的媒體名嘴，一個禮拜就已算是長期，足夠判定政治人物的生死。

因此，與其從風災還是去理髮、還要過父親節這樣的角度來譏評劉內閣，比較公允的角度應是，劉內閣時代的六大產業等措施、長期發展的政策思維模式，仍有可肯定之處。尤其，當事過境遷、在評價劉內閣及展望新內閣之際，我們必須避免掉入另一個陷阱，那就是如俗話說的，「倒髒水不要把嬰兒一起倒掉」。

為何要做這樣的提醒，最主要的原因在於，以民意喜好為導向的吳內閣，不只是長於掌握時間藝術，更深諳對比原理，例如，剛就任的第一天，行政院長吳敦義就提出「庶民經濟」的口號，他深知劉內閣被批為太著重理論，因此立即說出，「經濟數字固然重要，但包括股市、餐廳生意、至貨櫃車數量，卻是更貼近民眾生活的指標」；相對於劉內閣的低調不喜作秀，吳敦義上任的第一天，就要到災區過夜。

不只吳內閣刻意和前朝對比，大多數的輿論，不論褒貶，也都是用正反對比來看待前後兩任內閣，例如劉內閣專業性格對比於吳內閣政治性格；劉內閣官僚作風對稱於吳內閣的民意導向；或劉內閣的專業態度對上吳內閣的選舉內閣等。不論這些評比是否公平，最大的問題在於，當輿論或國民黨黨政要員自己都如此做非黑即白的對比時，是否會不慎全盤否定劉內閣的優點，當大家對新內閣的期許是要盡量考量民意喜好時，最後會不會只依民調施政，而不考慮國家長程的發展？

值得安慰的是，總統馬英九似乎未完全掉入這樣「非黑即白」的迷思，例如，他這次並未從眾，或依成功的前例，由民選首長出任內政部長，反而是由學者出身的新閣員江宜樺出掌第一大部，此舉是福是禍猶未可知，但至少顯示，馬總統及新內閣並未全掉入「選舉內閣」的陷阱。

可以說，已經下台的劉內閣有心做好，但在時間的掌控上栽了跟斗，接下來的吳內閣，必然是掌握時間的長才，但能不能把握時機做對的事，才是新內閣能否留下好評的關鍵。