The Perng Phenomenon and DPP Political Calculations

The Perng Phenomenon and DPP Political Calculations
China Times editorial (Taipei, Taiwan, ROC)
A Translation
May 16, 2011

Like his counterparts in most other democratic nations, the Republic of China Central Bank President enjoys considerable autonomy. Perng Fai-nan has fulfilled his role especially well. He is well thought of, both at home and abroad. He has successfully risen above partisanship. This is not an easy feat on Taiwan. As a result, Perng Fai-nan's late night meeting with Tsai Ing-wen provoked an uproar. It reflects the tensions behind the 2012 presidential election. It also reflects Blue vs. Green opposition on Taiwan. Public figures who can be classified as neutral, are few and far between.

Tsai Ing-wen deliberately downplayed the significance of the secret Tsai/Perng meeting. She stressed that Perng Fai-nan was a respected financial expert. He is "public property." Anyone, from either the ruling or opposition parties, has the right and even duty to seek help from him in solving Taiwan's fiscal woes. What she said is true. But the timing was just too sensitive. The ruling and opposition parties have just confirmed their presidential nominees. The candidates are about to choose their running mates. A late night meeting between Tsai and Perng at this moment will naturally arouse suspicions. In fact, Perng Fai-nan knew the timing was sensitive. He knew the location was sensitive. That is why he initially issued a denial to curious reporters.

The "Tsai/Perng Meeting" is being seen as evidence of a "Tsai/Perng ticket," primarily because of the DPP. Is the DPP seeking a running mate from outside the party?

First of all, the party does need internal restructuring. In theory, if Tsai Ing-wen chooses a running mate about as popular as her, such as rival Su Tseng-chang, that would make for the strongest possible ticket. But relations between Tsai and Su are chilly. Worse, the DPP presidential primary was virtually a showdown between pro-Su and anti-Su elements. Tsai Ing-wen might be willing to set aside her personal feelings and designate Su her running mate, But such a decision would lead to dissatisfaction among party members opposed to Su. On the other hand, if she chose election expert Frank Hsieh, she would provoke a backlash among pro-Su forces. No matter which force prevails, the result would be detrimental to the DPP's election prospects.

Su and Hsieh are party elders. Neither Su nor Hsieh as running mate would preserve the balance of power. Tsai Ing-wen cannot find a middle-aged running mate within the party. Because this person would be perceived as Tsai's successor. This would upset the balance of power among DPP factions. It would provoke a backlash. Tsai Ing-wen has yet to fully consolidate her power within the party. The choice of a middle-aged running mate would run the risk of provoking a power struggle.

In order to preserve the balance of power within the party, Tsai Ing-wen's best option is a running mate from outside the party. In fact, as soon as the DPP made her the party nominee, party leaders immediately began setting conditions. They insisted that Tsai Ing-wen choose a running mate from outside the party, from the financial sector. Another important factor of course, is the DPP's desire to expand its voter base.

Over the past two years, the DPP has gained the upper hand. It won the three in one county and municipal elections, the legislative by-elections, and the five cities elections. But the main reason it won, was that Pan Blue voters stayed home in droves. Green Camp voters remained solid. They participated enthusiastically. During last year's five cities elections, the turnout was as high as 70%. But the DPP, which attempted to appeal to swing voters, still fell short in Greater Taipei. The turnout rate during the presidential election could be as high as 80%. Hsu Hsin-liang referred to these voters, comprising 10% of the total, as "economic voters." They are centrist oriented, and are the key to the presidential election.

How can the DPP attract these swing or independent voters? Political parties do not provide policy. They provide human capital. Fiscal policy was never one of the the DPP's strong suits. In recent years, ideology has led to even greater rigidity. This has created the perception that the DPP "cares only about ideology, not about economics." The DPP has long been proficient in law and politics. It has long been lacking in financial experise. That is why the first time the DPP assumed power, it was forced to retain the services of KMT financial experts. Either that, or look to the business community. The DPP's current situation is not much better than it was back then.

Under the circumstances, Perng is indeed the best vice presidential candidate for the DPP. This is not the first time Perng's name has been mentioned. During the DPP era, Lee Teng-hui wanted Perng as his premier. When Frank Hsieh was running for president, he wanted Perng as his running mate. The Green Camp was not alone. When Ma Ying-jeou was casting about for a running mate, Perng's name came up. Perng Fai-nan has also been considered as a potential Blue Camp candidate.

How can one explain this "Perng Phenomenon?" When he was central bank president, he was professional, honest, and reliable. He enabled Taiwan to survive the financial crisis, and several exchange rate fluctuations. The public trusts him implicitly. No wonder his approval rating has remained the highest in the Ma administration.

More importantly, the Republic of China is a nation of political extremes, with a giant hole at the center. Any centrist force hoping to become involved in politics may mean well. It may start off with enthusiasm, but will inevitably resign in defeat. The best example of course is Lee Yuan-tse. Once he got caught up in the political maelstrom, even his halo as a Nobel laureate and president of the Academia Sinica could not save him from being perceived as a member of the Green Camp. Lee began to lose his appeal to other parties, his authority, and his credibility.

People with a sense of mission cannot of course worry constantly about being slandered or ridiculed. They must not be afraid to take a stand or to enter politics. The important thing is whether they consider it worthwhile. The answer is clear, the DPP needs Perng far more than Perng needs the DPP. After all, the vice president is merely a potential successor to the president. He is of far less importance than the central bank president. If Perng eventually retires and leaves his post as central bank president, he must ask himself whether as DPP vice presidential candidate he would really be able to change the Democratic Progressive Party's fundamental character?

「彭淮南現象」背後的民進黨算計
2011-05-16 中國時報

就像多數民主國家一樣，中華民國的央行總裁享有相當的獨立性，彭淮南的角色扮演尤其是恰如其分，不但在國內外有頗高的聲望，在台灣更能成功的超乎黨派之上。因此，彭淮南夜訪蔡英文引發軒然大波，反映的不只是二○一二總統大選選情緊繃，也凸顯出藍綠對立的台灣，可當之為中道立場的公眾人物，真是寥寥可數。

蔡英文刻意淡化蔡彭密會，強調彭淮南是她敬重的財經前輩，是台灣的公共財，不論執政或在野，都有權利或義務向他請教台灣整體財經情勢。所言甚是，只是時機太敏感；在這個時刻，朝野兩大政黨都已確定總統提名人，正進入決定副手的關鍵時刻，此時蔡彭夜會，自然難以避免外界的聯想；事實上，彭淮南要不是深知自己是在「敏感」的時機、出現在「敏感」的地方，他又何必在第一時間向查證的記者否認此事。

「蔡彭會」如果被想像成「蔡彭配」，最重要因素還是在民進黨，民進黨是否有必要向外尋找副手？

首先，就對內整合的角度來說，確實有必要。理論上，蔡英文如果找人氣差距不大的競爭對手蘇貞昌搭檔，應該是戰力最強的組合，但除了蔡蘇兩人關係冷淡外，更大的阻力在於，這次民進黨總統黨內初選形同一場「親蘇與反蘇」的大對決，因此，即使蔡英文個人願意放下一切恩怨，找蘇當副手，卻必然引發黨內反蘇人士的不滿；反之亦然，若找了選舉功臣謝長廷，只怕引發親蘇勢力反彈；不管最後是何方勢力出線，都不利大選整合。

蘇謝兩位大老都不利權力鋪排，蔡英文卻同樣不能找黨內中生代，因為，此人若被視為有接班人的態勢，同樣會打破民進黨派系均勢，引發反彈，蔡英文在黨內羽翼未豐，找中生代搭檔同樣有擺不平的風險。

可以說，就黨內權力結構考量，蔡英文最佳副手人選不在黨內而在黨外；事實上，她一從民進黨黨內初選出線，黨內立即傳出條件說，蔡英文副手人選可能是黨外財經界人士，另一個重要關鍵因素，當然就是關乎民進黨對外開拓選票的戰略。

過去兩年來，從三合一縣市長選舉、立委補選到五都選舉，民進黨雖然都占上風，但多數是勝在藍營選民不投票，綠營選民卻鐵板一塊、熱情參與，去年的五都選舉投票率雖然高達七成，但是訴求中間選民的民進黨，在大台北仍有不少的差距，尤其，總統大選投票率可能高達八成，許信良稱這多出來的一成選民為「經濟選民」，立場偏向中間，他們就是總統大選決勝負的關鍵。

如何吸引這些中間、或獨立選民？政黨能提供的不是政策，就是人才。就政策而言，財經政策向來不是民進黨的強項，這幾年來更因僵固的意識形態，而予人「寧要政治不要經濟」的觀感；就黨內人才來說，民進黨更是向來法政強、缺財經人才。因此，第一次民進黨執政時，必須留用國民黨財經人才，不然就是向商界尋覓，現在也沒有比那時候好太多。

在這些大背景下，彭淮南確實是民進黨副手的最佳人選。這不是彭淮南第一次被點名，民進黨政府時代，李登輝就曾點名找彭擔任行政院長，謝長廷選總統時積極尋求彭淮南搭檔，不只綠營如此，之前總統馬英九副手人選討論尚未浮出檯面時，彭淮南同樣是藍營點名人選。

如何解釋這樣的「彭淮南現象」？他在央行總裁任內的專業、操守及穩健作風，讓台灣安然度過金融風暴、及數次匯率市場波動，深受民眾肯定，難怪他的民意支持度一直是馬政府中最高的。

更重要的是，台灣是個政治上兩極對立、中間空虛的國家，任何中道力量想要介入政治，即使動機良善，卻總是以熱情始、以挫敗終。最典型的例子當然是李遠哲，當他捲入政治漩渦，即使諾貝爾獎得主、中研院院長的光環，都不能挽救他被貼上綠營標籤的命運，李遠哲也從此失去號召不同黨派、一言九鼎的發言分量。

當然，具有使命感的人，不能總是因為憂讒畏譏，而不敢表態或投入政治，重要是值不值得。答案很清楚，民進黨需要彭淮南遠甚於彭淮南需要民進黨！畢竟，副總統僅是備位元首而已，遠遜於央行總裁的重要性；即使彭淮南終將退休、離開央行總裁一職，他當然也必須要思考，擔任民進黨副總統候選人，真的能改變民進黨的體質嗎？