Will President Ma Be Re-Elected?

Will President Ma Be Re-Elected?
United Daily News editorial (Taipei, Taiwan, ROC)
A Translation
May 19, 2011

Tomorrow is May 20, the third anniversary of Ma Ying-jeou's inauguration. On January 14 of next year, we will hold the next presidential election. Almost all the polls show President Ma having a difficult time getting reelected. Will this be his last year in office?

In 2008, Ma Ying-jeou won the presidential election, He won mainly because voters gave him two mandates. One, to clean up political corruption, and two, to change cross-Strait policy. Over the past three years, President Ma has fulfilled both these mandates. He has fulfilled the voters' demands. And yet his bid for re-election remains troubled.

Consider political corruption. Chen era scandals such as the high-speed railway scandal, the Longtan Land Acquistion scandal, thje Nangang Exhibition Hall scandal, the justice system collusion scandals, the PNG scandal, the Taiwan Goals scandal, and other bizarre scandals are all things of the past. The Ma administration's troubles are confined to legislative election vote-buying, and few central or local government officials implicated in corruption cases. Over the past three years, President Ma's own conduct has been exemplary. The most earth-shaking "scandal," within the KMT was the Flora Expo "water spinach scandal." This shows how dramatically different the current administration is from the Chen administration.

Consider cross-Strait policy. Twenty years of folly under Lee Teng-hui and Chen Shui-bian left cross-Strait relations in shambles. For the past three years, the Ma administration has moved cross-Strait relations toward peaceful development and win/win coopetition. It has been a daunting taks, akin to turning the world on its axis, or akin to reviving the dead. The Chen regime's moves toward Taiwan independence brought the two sides to the brink of war. They turned Taipei and Washington into enemies. They turned Taipei into an international "troublemaker." Moves toward Taiwan independence created social divisions and widespread suffering. The Ma administration seized this historical opportunity. It upheld the principles such as the 1992 Consensus, "One China, Different Interpretations," "No Unification, No Independence, No Use of Force," "no recognition of each other's sovereignty, no repudiation of each other's authority," and "putting Taiwan first, benefitting the people." It allowed direct cross-Strait flights, and Mainland tourists to visit Taiwan. It promoted a diplomatic truce, signed 15 bilateral agreements, including ECFA. Cross-strait relations moved from hatred to peaceful development and win/win symbiosis. William Stanton, Director of the Taipei Office of the American Institute in Taiwan, described cross-Strait relations today as a "Godsend," as a "success story."

President Ma has these two major achievements to his credit. So why is his bid for re-election still in so much trouble? There are two reasons. One, over the past three years, he has been unable to win the hearts and minds of Green Camp voters. Two, he has lost the once passionate support of Blue Camp voters.

Three years ago, Tsai Ing-wen promised to "lead the DPP into the post-Chen Shui-bian era." Her promise won her the DPP chairmanship. Today however, she is working hand in glove with Chen Shui-bian, Lee Teng-hui, Frank Hsieh, Koo Kuan-min, and other Taiwan independence elements. She refuses to apologize for DPP corruption. She refuses to promise not to pardon Chen Shui-bian. She refuses to retreat on Taiwan independence. Yet her momentum far exceeds Ma Ying-jeou's. In 2004, 50.11% of the voters supported the DPP and Chen Shui-bian. In 2008, 42% of the voters supported the DPP and Frank Hsieh. Today, they apparently have even more reason to support the DPP and Tsai Ing-wen. Ma Ying-jeou cleaned up corruption, and turned cross-Strait relations around. But this means nothing to the 42% of the voters in the Green Camp. They will never vote for Ma Ying-jeou. They need no reason. Nor can they offer one.

Over the past three years, President Ma has lost his once enthusiastic supporters. This is another crisis in the way of his re-election. Three years ago, 58% of the voters threw their support behind a law-abiding, honest, self-disciplined presidential candidate who disdained populist demagoguery and Machievellian trickery. But once Ma Ying-jeou became president, those same personality traits took on the opposite meaning. He was perceived as dull, conservative, hidebound, indecisive, even weak and incompetent. What accounts for this discrepancy? Some blame President Ma's poor judgment, for example, during the recent Grand Justices nomination. Some blame the public for harboring unrealistic expectations, blaming him for the long delays in the Chen corruption trials. But one point is a constant. The public apparently prefers politicians with flash, even ones who flip-flop endlessly. They tire easily with those who are straight-laced and who lack charisma. They may feel alienated from them, even contemptuous of them. Ma Ying-jeou is unable to hold on to his supporters, for whatever the reasons may be. Hardliners dislike Ma Ying-jeou because he is wishy-washy. First time voters consider him less "fresh" than Tsai Ing-wen. No matter how solid Ma Ying-jeou might be, he cannot withstand this steady erosion. His supporters have lost their enthusiasm, and Ma Ying-jeou's re-election campaign lacks momentum.

President Ma is the incumbent. But he enjoys an advantage only because he is honest and trustworthy, and because his cross-Strait policy has provided everyone, at home and abroad, with a peace dividend. The Green Camp advocates Taiwan independence and refuses to recognize the Republic of China. It sees the peace dividend as a quid pro quo for "pandering to [Mainland] China and selling out Taiwan." President Ma's cross-Strait policy has not changed Green Camp political allegiances. Meanwhile, President Ma's honesty and trustworthiness have been devalued by negative impressions of Ma as a "teflon" politician, as someone who shrinks from the front lines, as an irresolute panderer, who is damned if he does and damned if he doesn't, as someone who is always "a day late and a dollar short," and even "incompetent." These negative impressions have alienated former supporters. In other words, the Green Camp remains hostile to Ma Ying-jeou. The Blue Camp is disappointed with Ma Ying-jeou because he comes across as sluggish to the point of obtuseness. This is why Ma Ying-jeou's re-election bid is in trouble.

But President Ma's accomplishments over the past three years, go far beyond the presidential election. He has taken cross-Strait relations past the point of no return. Even if he fails to win re-election, his successor will have to follow in Ma's footsteps. The more his successor refuses to follow in Ma's footsteps, the more disastrous the consequences will be. President Ma is relatively bland, in both style and substance. He is not the kind to provoke an internal crisis by demanding the "rectification of names," or proclaiming that the "Pacific Ocean has no lid." He is not the kind to provoke an international crisis that tars Taipei as a "trouble maker," or to embark on a "lost voyage." His personal style is one of self-restraint. He is not one to stir up trouble. He is not one to use people as political tools. He may come across as dull. But he is a national leader who has avoided tearing his nation apart, who has maintained cross-Strait and international peace. If President Ma fails to win re-election, his successor must win the trust of the public, of Beijing, and of the international community. Otherwise the Big Picture will not remain secure.

Over the past three years, President Ma has completed what President Chiang Ching-kuo set out to do 23 years ago, when he lifted martial law and liberalized the political system. Lee Teng-hui and Chen Shui-bian linked our democratic institutions to Taiwan independence. They made them part of a hostile cross-Strait power struggle. Ma linked our democratic institutions to cross-Strait peace. He liberated us from Lee Teng-hui and Chen Shui-bian's negative legacy.

As matters stand, President Ma might not win re-election. But if Ma's successor departs from his cross-strait policy, and fails to inspire the same trust at home, across the Strait, and around the world, it will be impossible to promote the security of the nation.

In conclusion, President Ma's leadership over the past three years may be riddled with controversy. It may contain defects. It may have failed to fulfill its potential. But its overall political direction is correct, and it is morally unassailable. Even if Ma fails to win a second term, its achievements have already transcended the presidential elections. Any future president will find them difficult to surpass.

明年此時馬總統能否連任
【聯合報╱社論】 2011.05.19

明天五二○是馬英九總統就職三周年。明年一月十四日就要舉行下屆總統大選，幾乎所有的民調皆顯示，馬總統的連任之路十分艱難，這會不會是他的最後一個就職周年紀念日？

馬英九在二○○八年總統選舉大勝，主要是得自選民的兩大令狀（mandates）：一、清洗政治貪腐；二、調整兩岸政策。就這兩點而言，馬總統三年來已經做到，可謂不負選民的託付；然而，即使如此，他仍陷於可能競選連任失敗的危機之中。

就清洗政治貪腐言，今日像扁政府時代高捷案、龍潭購地案、南港展覽館案、司法黃牛案、巴紐案、鐽震案那類匪夷所思的大案已不復見，馬團隊的困擾在立委選舉賄選，而鮮有中央政務官或地方行政首長涉及貪腐案件。三年來，馬總統自身操守清正，而國民黨團隊「最轟動」的「案子」，竟儼然是花博的「空心菜案」，由此可徵政風較扁政府清廉。

再就調整兩岸政策言，馬政府三年來將李扁二任近二十年的兩岸亂局，導入「和平發展」的競合關係，可謂是旋乾轉坤、起死回生的功業。扁政府的台獨操作，非但使兩岸瀕於戰爭邊緣，台美關係亦反目成仇，國際也以「麻煩製造者」看台灣，至於因台獨操作引致的社會撕裂及痛苦更不必贅言。馬政府掌握了歷史機遇，以「九二共識／一中各表」、「不統／不獨／不武」、「主權互不承認／治權互不否認」、「以台灣為主／對人民有利」等政策原則，開放直航、開放陸客來台、外交休兵、簽署ＥＣＦＡ等十五項雙邊協議，將兩岸關係從仇恨、破裂導向和平發展、雙贏共生。美國在台協會台北辦事處處長司徒文說，現今的兩岸關係是「上帝的恩賜」（godsend），是「一個成功的故事」。

然而，即使馬總統有這兩大事功，為何仍陷於可能競選連任失敗的危機？主要原因，一方面三年來他幾乎未能轉化吸收任何綠營的選票，另一方面藍營支持者對他的熱情亦告流失。

三年前，蔡英文打著「帶領民進黨進入沒有陳水扁的時代」之口號出任民進黨主席，如今則與「扁李謝辜獨」等原班人馬並肩合體，且在貪腐問題上不道歉，在特赦扁上不否認，在台獨議題上不退卻，而儼然已有超越馬英九的聲勢；想像中，二○○四年那百分之五十點一一的選票可以支持當時的民進黨及陳水扁，二○○八年那百分之四十二的選票可以支持當時的民進黨與謝長廷，如今似乎更有理由支持今日的民進黨與蔡英文。馬英九在清洗貪腐上與扭轉兩岸上的表現，對這百分之四十二起跳的綠營支持者並無意義。他們不會投票給馬英九，其實不必任何理由，也不怕找不到理由。

馬總統三年來使他原本的支持者失去了光榮感與失去了熱情，則是他連任之路的另一危機。三年前，百分之五十八的選票，應是在支持一位守法、清正、自我節制，不屑民粹權謀操作的總統候選人馬英九；但馬英九成為總統後，其實是出自同一人格特質的表現，在支持者眼中，卻成了呆板、保守、綁手綁腳、瞻前顧後，甚至懦弱無能。這樣的落差，有些是出自馬總統的錯咎（像此次大法官提名），有些則出自民眾扭曲的期望（為何扁案審判拖那麼久？）；但總歸一句，人民似乎還是欣賞手法靈活俗麗甚至反覆自如的政治人物，對拘謹又淡如白開水的風格沒有興趣，甚至疏離或鄙視。馬英九拉不住因這樣或那樣的原因流失掉的支持者，激進者不喜歡馬英九的溫吞，首投族覺得他不如蔡英文有新鮮感；此時的馬英九，猶如再大的山體也禁不起東一片西一片落石的消損。支持者失去了熱情與光榮感，馬英九的選情也就欠缺動能。

總之，馬總統競選連任的優勢，是在他相對比較清正而可堪信任的人格特質，及他的兩岸政策所產生的內外和平紅利。但是，一方面綠營的台獨訴求根本否定了中華民國體制，視和平紅利為「傾中賣台」之所得，而馬總統的兩岸政策始終未能改變綠營的國家認同；另一方面，馬總統相對清正及可堪信任的人格特質，則因「不沾鍋」、「第二線」、「父子騎驢」、「慢半拍」、「無能」等批評，而使原來的支持者與他疏離。也就是說，綠營無論如何皆敵視馬英九，藍營則對馬英九因素樸以致顯得遲緩笨拙的政治手法感到失望，這正是馬英九連任之路的危機。

然而，馬總統三年來的政績，已經超越了換屆選舉；他已將兩岸關係帶過了不可折返點，即使他不能連任，接手者也無可能另闢蹊徑，且若愈抵拒，災禍愈大。至於馬總統相對素樸的人格特質與操作手法，對內不致引發「正名制憲」或「太平洋沒加蓋」的痛苦撕裂，對外不致引發「麻煩製造者」或「迷航」的動盪；這樣的風格，自我節制，不興風作浪，不以人民為政治工具，即使有時顯得呆板，卻是國家領導者不撕裂國家及維持兩岸與國際和平的應有修為。馬總統若未連任，接手者亦須獲得國人、兩岸及國際之信任，非此不能保全大局。

三年來，馬總統已將蔣經國總統在二十三年前的「解嚴／開放」政策完整體現，他將兩岸和平與台灣的民主機制作了正面結合，跳脫了李扁二任將台灣民主的另一面（台獨）與兩岸敵對鬥爭作了負面結合的覆轍。

就當下選情看，馬總統未必能贏得連任，但繼任者若脫離了馬英九所定下的兩岸政策，又在國內、兩岸及國際不具馬英九一樣的人格信任度，即絕無可能安邦定國。

我們的結語是：馬總統三年來的領導表現，雖爭議不斷、缺陷不鮮，令人恨鐵不成鋼，但大政無虧、大德無虧，即使不能連任，其成就已超越了再一次的總統選舉，而可能是未來多任總統所難以違離及超越的。