Deciphering Tsai Ing-wen's "Generational Change"

Deciphering Tsai Ing-wen's "Generational Change"
United Daily News editorial (Taipei, Taiwan, ROC)
A Translation
June 2, 2011

Tsai Ing-wen is trumpeting "generational change." But in fact she is merely six years younger than Ma Ying-jeou. Chronologically speaking, she hardly qualifies as a member of a different generation. Nor would her election victory amount to "change."

Tsai Ing-wen's "generational change" means something else entirely. The term "generational change" denotes the appearance of a new generation distinctly different from the old generation. It implies that this new generation will replace the old. During the eight years it wielded power, the Democratic Progressive Party engaged in rampant corruption. Tsai Ing-wen is now trumpeting generational change. According to her own logic, the DPP must offer voters a new generation of leaders distinctly different from the old. This is the only way generational change can be understood.

But as everyone knows, the only action Tsai Ing-wen has taken in response to the old generation, is to squeeze out Su Tseng-chang. Having done so, she has joined herself at the hip to old generation Taiwan independence doctrinarians Chen Shui-bian, Lee Teng-hui, Frank Hsieh, and Koo Kwan-min. This represents more than political networking. This represents atavism and regression. This represents a regression to 2000, when Chen Shui-bian and Tsai Ing-wen jointly repudiated the 1992 Consensus and retreated to old generation thinking.

Therefore from a networking and political policy perspective, Tsai Ing-wen's "generational change" exhibits no signs of progress from old generation to new generation whatsoever. On the contrary, it represents a "harmonic convergence" of the most obdurate elements of the old boy network and the old generation, in over a decade. Taiwan independence doctrinarians Chen Shui-bian, Lee Teng-hui, Frank Hsieh, and Koo Kwan-min are all present and accounted for. This confluence of forces is unprecedented. By contrast, during the 2000 general election, the faultline between Chen Shui-bian and Lee Teng-hui could be considered generational change of a sort. The Chen era "new centrist path" also conveyed connotations of a new generation. During the 2008 general election, Frank Hsieh and Chen Shui-bian revealed a number of ideological differences. Frank Hsieh's uphill struggle was evident. Yet Tsai Ing-wen aligned herself with old generation Taiwan independence doctrinarians Chen Shui-bian, Lee Teng-hui, Frank Hsieh, and Koo Kwan-min.

Tsai Ing-wen is only six years younger than Ma Ying-jeou. One can hardly characterize them as members of different generations. On top of which, she has joined old generation Taiwan independence doctrinarians Chen Shui-bian, Lee Teng-hui, Frank Hsieh, and Koo Kwan-min. Where, pray tell, is the loudly trumpeted change? Tsai's "generational change" is nothing more than a cutthroat electioneering slogan aimed at first time voters. But as noted above, this slogan contains a fundamental contradiction. Tsai represents the thinking of old generation Taiwan independence doctrinarians Chen Shui-bian, Lee Teng-hui, Frank Hsieh, and Koo Kwan-min. What is Tsao up to? Does she intend to rally first time voters against obdurate old generation Taiwan independence doctrinarians Chen Shui-bian, Lee Teng-hui, Frank Hsieh, and Koo Kwan-min? Or is she merely herding first time voters to the polls to robotically cast their votes for these stale smelling old generation leaders?

We have long wondered how Tsai Ing-wen can appeal to both the "Showa generation" and to first time voters. After all, they have sharply divergent expectations. Tsai Ing-wen is asking the new generation to bear the burden of the future. But Tsai's future has already been hijacked by old generation Taiwan independence doctrinarians Chen Shui-bian, Lee Teng-hui, Frank Hsieh, and Koo Kwan-min. Does she really want to mire first time voters in that kind of future? Does she really want first time voters to bear the burden for old generation Taiwan independence doctrinarians Chen Shui-bian, Lee Teng-hui, Frank Hsieh, and Koo Kwan-min? Just exactly whose future is Tsai Ing-wen protecting? old generation Taiwan independence doctrinarians Chen Shui-bian, Lee Teng-hui, Frank Hsieh, and Koo Kwan-min? Or new generation first time voters?

During the 1996 presidential election, the Lee/Lien ticket won 54% of the vote. Polls revealed that some voters believed Lee Teng-hui was a defender of the Republic of China. Others believed a vote for Lee Teng-hui was a vote for Taiwan independence. This newspaper warned that the Lee/Lien ticket might be a ploy.Taiwan independence doctrinarians might be attempting to split KMT supporters by presenting them with a split platform. We said the KMT to consider this a red flag. In 2000, Chen Shui-bian and James Soong split the vote. The Lien/Hsiao ticket received a mere 23.1% of the vote. Our fears came true. Today, Tsai is splitting the DPP's own supporters by preenting a split platform. On the one hand, Tsai is granting real world concessions to old generation Taiwan independence doctrinarians Chen Shui-bian, Lee Teng-hui, Frank Hsieh, and Koo Kwan-min. On the other hand, Tsai is making hollow emotional appeals to new generation first time voters. It is casting itself as the birth mother of the Deep Greens, and as the wet nurse pf first time voters. These appeals are mutally contradictory, They must lead to a contradictory future. How can Tsai Ing-wen and the DPP assume the burden for such a future?

The situation is clear. In Tsai Ing-wen's future, she and old generation Taiwan independence doctrinarians Chen Shui-bian, Lee Teng-hui, Frank Hsieh, and Koo Kwan-min will possess, command, and exploit the resources of the nation together. Tsai Ing-wen is asking a new generation to assume the burden of the future. In essence, she is asking first time voters to assume the burden for old generation Taiwan independence doctrinarians Chen Shui-bian, Lee Teng-hui, Frank Hsieh, and Koo Kwan-min. Polls indicate that young and middle-aged voters have no desire to assume the burden for old generation Taiwan independence doctrinarians Chen Shui-bian, Lee Teng-hui, Frank Hsieh, and Koo Kwan-min. Tsai Ing-wen is recruiting first time voters. She expects these new generation voters to assume the burden for the future of the old generation. The deception is obvious. There is no generational change. Tsai's generational change is deception, plain and simple. It is an attempt to trick new generation voters to bear the burden for the old generation's political comeback.

Tsai is asking the new generation to bear the burden for old generation Taiwan independence doctrinarians Chen Shui-bian, Lee Teng-hui, Frank Hsieh, and Koo Kwan-min.

解讀蔡英文的世代交替
【聯合報╱社論】 2011.06.02

蔡英文主張「世代交替」，而馬蔡二人其實只差六歲，若以年齡來說，兩人其實難謂是不同「世代」，也就說不上「交替」。

因此，蔡英文所說的「世代交替」應是另有別解。就正統的觀點而言，所謂「世代交替」，應指「新世代」與「舊世代」在人脈與理念上的差異與輪替；因而，就蔡英文的立場言，由於民進黨執政八年貪腐亂政，則蔡英文既宣示「世代交替」，就應標舉一個民進黨的「新世代」，以與民進黨的「舊世代」有所區隔，這才是「世代交替」的正解。

但是，如所共見，蔡英文如今在綠營之中，除了排擠掉蘇貞昌這個「舊世代」之外，現在她儼然已成為「扁李謝辜獨」一干所有「舊世代」的完全合體；且不止是人脈的整合，亦是理念的返祖與倒退，其中之一是在今日ＥＣＦＡ的「新世代」中，倒退至二○○○年扁蔡合作否認九二共識的「舊世代」思維中。

因此，蔡英文所謂的「世代交替」，在政治人脈及政策思考上，不但完全未見「新世代」與「舊世代」的遞嬗，卻反而可謂是十餘年來綠營「舊人脈」與「舊思維」最為頑強的一次「舊世代」總集結，「扁李謝辜獨」人馬全員到齊，陣容空前壯盛。相對而言，二○○○年大選，陳水扁與李登輝的分道揚鑣或有「世代交替」的意味，而扁當時的「新中間路線」也有「新世代」的色彩；到了二○○八年大選，謝長廷與陳水扁之間亦有路線之歧見，謝長廷當時的掙扎亦有目共睹。但是，如今蔡英文卻儼然是「扁李謝辜獨」這個「舊世代」人脈與理念水乳交融的總集合。

因而，蔡英文既與馬英九只差六歲（難謂不同「世代」），又與「扁李謝辜獨」完全整合（根本沒有「交替」），致使其「世代交替」只剩下了一個意義，那就是以此作為向「首投族」割喉拉票的口號。但如上所述，這個口號卻存在著根本的矛盾，蔡英文既是「扁李謝辜獨」這個「舊世代」人脈與理念的總和，則如今究竟是要帶領「首投族」，將「扁李謝辜獨」這個頑強的舊世代「交替」掉？還是其實只是要「首投族」為這個已經發臭發霉的「舊世代」背書抬轎？

我們曾經質疑，蔡英文如何能同時回應「昭和世代」與「首投族」的不同期待？蔡英文說：召喚新世代，把未來扛起來！但當蔡英文的「未來」，已經被「扁李謝辜獨」這個「舊世代」所挾持，她難道要「首投族」一起陷身那樣的「未來」？又難道要「首投族」與她一起將「扁李謝辜獨」的「未來」扛起來？蔡英文究竟是允諾了「扁李謝辜獨」的「未來」？還是許諾了「首投族」的「未來」？

一九九六年，李連配在總統大選中獲百分之五十四的選票而當選，依當年選情分析，其中有認為李登輝是中華民國維護者的選票，亦有認為李登輝是走台獨路線者的選票；本報當即指出，這是「分裂的政策」所形成的「分裂的支持」，應視為國民黨的警訊；至二○○○年，陳水扁和宋楚瑜分掉了兩頭的票，連蕭配僅得百分之二十三點一的選票而大敗，警訊應驗。如今，蔡英文亦以「分裂的訴求」尋求「分裂的支持」，一方面在實體利益上結合「扁李謝辜獨」的「舊世代」，一方面在虛擬感情上拉攏「首投族」的「新世代」，也就是以深綠為「親娘」，以首投族為「奶媽」，這樣的矛盾操作，必將會面對一個矛盾百出的「未來」，又將如何「扛起」這個未來？

情勢十分明確。蔡英文的「未來」，將是與「扁李謝辜獨」共有、共治、共享的「未來」；蔡英文「號召新世代，把未來扛起來」，不啻就是要「首投族」把「扁李謝辜獨」的「未來」扛起來。因為，民調顯示，中壯年齡層的成熟選民，不願做「扁李謝辜獨」的轎夫，所以蔡英文將徵募的對象聚焦在初出茅廬的首投族身上，有賴這些「新世代」扛起「舊世代」的「未來」。拆穿了說，這絕非世代交替，而是一場要「新世代」幫「舊世代」復辟的政治騙局。

號召新世代，把「扁李謝辜獨舊世代」的「未來」扛起來？