Young Graduates Seek Employment Overseas

Young Graduates Seek Employment Overseas
China Times editorial (Taipei, Taiwan, ROC)
A Translation
June 17, 2011

June is when college students graduate. President Ma Ying-jeou and Vice President Vincent Siew spent most of this last weekend visiting universities and giving graduating students pep talks. But the the financial tsunami has taken its toll. Graduates emerging from college campuses today suffer from high unemployment. Even those who have found work, must endure low starting salaries.

The unemployment rate on Taiwan is seasonal. Between June and August, over 200,000 students graduate from college. They join the ranks of job seekers. The unemployment rate soars accordingly. That the unemployment rate increases between June and August each year is nothing to fear. That is merely a seasonal phenomenon. Of more concern is the period just before graduation. In late 2008, the financial tsunami slowed. Its impact however, is still felt on the job market. The United States and Europe both suffer from youth unemployment. The situation on Taiwan is no different. Today the youth unemployment rate is still higher than before the financial tsunami, by 1 to 2 percentage points. Many aspiring young people with Masters degrees and Doctorates are finding their ambitions thwarted by circumstances, Many of them held lofty ideals, only to have their dreams shattered. They look at the soaring cost of urban housing, and depression overwhelms them, We know how they feel.

According to DGBAS statistics, young people on Taiwan between 20 and 24 suffered a 12.4% unemployment rate in April. The 25 to 29-year-old youth unemployment rate was 7.2%. Youth unemployment remains much higher than the overall average. Worse still, the employment survey covered not just domestic employment. but overseas employment. In other words, take away overseas employment opportunities, and the unemployment rate for young people on Taiwan today would be even higher.

The government is trying to understand these unemployment and employment trends. Each month it surveys 20,000 households regarding their employment situation. The survey counts the number of people registered at any particular household, rather than its long term residents. Anyone registered as a member of a household on Taiwan is counted. It matters not whether he or she works in Shanghai, Kunshan, Singapore, or Ho Chi Minh City. He or she is counted as part of Taiwan's workforce. This accounting approach, which includes overseas employment, naturally helps reduce the unemployment rate on Taiwan. But in fact these were not employment opportunities created on Taiwan.

Precisely how many people from Taiwan are employed overseas? We have no exact figures, only occasional studies, conducted by various agencies. But the DGBAS surveyed various industries. In recent years, overseas employment has continued to increase. Between January 2008 and March 2011, surveys of households showed that private employment increased by 300,000. Industry surveys showed an increase of only 19 million people employed. Surveys of households included overseas employment. Surveys of Industry included only domestic employment. If not for increased overseas employment, such discrepancies would not have appeared.

Now increase the time frame to ten years. Over the past decade surveys of industry show employment increasing by only 90 million people. Since surveys of households show employment increasing by 140 million people, the gap between the two is even more apparent. This shows that for nearly a decade overseas employment has been increasing. When the government boasts that employment has increased and unemployment has declined, we must not be too happy. This probably includes the contribution of overseas employment. We on Taiwan have not created any significant employment opportunities.

Some may argue that surveys of households include foundations, research institutions, cram schools, and religious groups. In part this is because industry surveys failed to include them. Naturally differences will arise between the two. But we find it hard to believe that over the past decade surveys of households showed 500,000 more people employed than surveys of industry. We find it hard to believe that the number of teachers, priests, and monks increased so drastically. If our above reasoning is correct, then the statistical difference is the result of significant changes in overseas employment over this period.

It is important to distinguish between domestic employment and foreign employment. High-ranking officials have long assumed that long term employment growth means that government policies took effect. In fact such growth was probably the result of increased overseas employment, and utterly unrelated to government policies. Domestic employment must be distinguished from foreign employment. Otherwise it will be difficult to verify the effectiveness of industrial policies and employment policies. The government will then misjudge how ordinary people actually feel.

How can the government distinguish between domestic and overseas employment? It must get to the root of the statistical sample. It must count the number of long term residents rather than the number of people registered at any particular household. This will enable it to better estimate domestic and overseas employment. It will also enable it to better estimate the total number of jobs created by various counties and municipalities. But so far the government has not compelled those working or studying in other counties and municipalities to register where they work. Currently the government has only household registry data, and no long term resident data. Overseas workers who fail to return to Taiwan within two years are reclassified as non-residents. Otherwise, they remain registered residents. The government must make changes. It must cease using household registries as its statistical base. Domestically, doing so fails to show employment opportunities within various counties and municipalities. Internationally, it fails to account for the number of people employed overseas.

Accurate employment statistics will enable the government to more readily count absentee ballots for future presidential or legislative elections. The government must compile statistics on the long term residents. These statistics will be vital when estimating the economic strength of our nation, The ruling administration must take on this task. It must make comprehensive plans, give the problem higher priority, and form inter-ministerial groups to ensure its early completion.

中時電子報 新聞
工商時報 　2011.06.17
畢業時節談青年人海外就業增加趨勢
本報訊

每年六月是各大學畢業的時節，馬英九總統及蕭萬長副總統週末的行程大都前往各大學，給即將畢業的學子們一些勉勵。然而受到前幾年金融海嘯的影響，今天走出校園的社會新鮮人，非但失業率較以往為高，而且起薪也普遍偏低。

台灣的失業率走勢有很明顯的季節性，每年從六月到八月，在二十多萬學子走出校園、加入尋職行列後，失業率總會一路升高。事實上每年六至八月失業率升高並不足懼，這只是季節因素使然。比較值得注意的反而是在畢業前的這段時期，雖然2008年底這一波金融海嘯的衝擊已經趨緩，但是在就業市場上的影響仍在。非但美、歐為青年人失業問題困擾不已，台灣情況亦然。如今青年人的失業率依然比金融海嘯前高出1到2個百分點，多少獲取碩、博士學位的青年有志難伸，多少懷抱遠大理想者失望落寞，回首遙望都市裡狂漲的房價，心情之沮喪，不言可喻。

依主計處統計，台灣20至24歲的青年人四月份失業率12.4％，25至29歲的青年人失業率7.2％，失業情況遠高於全體平均水準。然而，更值得注意的是，這項就業調查統計非僅涵蓋國內就業，也包括海外就業。換言之，若沒有海外就業機會，台灣今天青年的失業率乃至於全體失業率，勢必還要更高。

政府為了解失業及就業變化，每月會調查兩萬戶家庭的就業情況進行推估。由於調查的母體係戶籍人口而非常住人口，因此只要此人的戶籍在台灣，不論其人是在上海、昆山、新加坡、胡志明市就業，全數計入台灣的就業人口。如此算法，海外就業自然也有助於降低台灣的失業率，惟事實上這並非是台灣境內所創造的就業機會。

台灣的海外就業人數究竟有多少？至今仍無確切的統計，只有相關單位零星的研究。但我們可以藉由比對主計處訪自廠商面的受僱人員調查發現，近年海外就業情況仍持續升溫。自2008年1月至2011年3月這段期間，從家庭面訪查的受私人僱用人數增加了30萬，但自廠商面調查的受僱人數卻只增加19萬人。自家庭面推估的受僱人數包括海外就業，而自廠商面推估的受僱人數僅限於國內，若非海外就業人口持續增加，不致出現如此歧異的走勢。

我們若把時間數列拉長至十年，近十年廠商面調查的受私人僱用人數只增加90萬人，而自家庭面調查的受僱人數卻增加了140萬人，兩者之間差距更為明顯。這說明近十年隨著海外就業日趨普遍，當政府發布就業人數增加、失業率下滑時，先不要太高興，這極可能是來自海外就業的貢獻，而不是國內創造了什麼可觀的就業機會。

或許有人會說，自家庭面推估的受僱人數涵蓋了財團法人、研究機構、補習班、宗教團體，這部份是自廠商面推計時所沒有納入的，因此兩者自然會有差異。但我們很難相信這十年來家庭面調查比廠商面調查多出的50萬受僱人數，是因為老師、牧師、和尚大幅增加所致。如果上述推論是正確的，那麼這兩項統計差異的根本原因，就在於此一期間國人在海外的就業人數已出現重大變化。

我們認為，釐清國內就業與海外就業是非常重要的統計工作。長期以來當就業人數成長，府院高層總以為政府政策奏效，但事實上非常有可能是拜海外就業成長所賜，與政府相關政策未必有關。若不釐清國內就業與海外就業，非但難以核實產業政策與就業政策的成效，也將錯估庶民的心中感受。

如何釐清國內就業與海外就業？正本清源之道是將調查的母體，由現行戶籍人口改為常住人口，如此非但可以推估出國內及海外就業人數，也可以正確地推計各縣市所創造的就業機會。不過，礙於政府迄今並未強制赴外縣市工作、就學者必須赴工作所在地的戶政單位登記，以致如今台灣僅有戶籍人口資料，並沒有常住人口統計，而赴海外工作者除非兩年不曾返台被除籍，否則仍在戶籍人口之列。由此可知，如果不改弦易轍，仍舊根據戶籍人口做為母體進行調查，對內將無法清楚呈現各縣市的就業機會，對外則無法掌握海外就業人數究有多少。

我們認為，不論是基於掌握正確的就業統計，或是讓未來總統、立委不在籍投票更順利進行，建立常住人口資料已勢在必行。這項攸關國勢統計的重要工作，執政當局非但要加以正視，而且必須提升層級組成跨部會小組全力規劃，以促其早日完成。