A Just Cause Invariably Gains Support: Key to China's Return to Glory

A Just Cause Invariably Gains Support: Key to China's Return to Glory
China Times editorial (Taipei, Taiwan, Republic of China)
A Translation
January 7, 2014

Summary: The New Year has already begun, but tensions in Northeast Asia have not improved. Beijing has forcefully reiterated that "The Chinese people do not fear demons, and do not believe evil will prevail." It has already declared its intention to fight to the bitter end. But the Japanese government under Abe shows no signs of softening. We appeal to all parties. War is hell. It involves life and death. When all is said and done, peace remains the highest value. Neither side should precipitate a major disaster merely because it could not endure a minor slight. Neither side should act to the detriment of its own national growth, national interests, and to regional security.

Full text below:

The New Year has already begun, but tensions in Northeast Asia have not improved. Beijing has forcefully reiterated that "The Chinese people do not fear demons, and do not believe evil will prevail." It has already declared its intention to fight to the bitter end. Some in the Mainland military and media say that sooner or later China and Japan must have a showdown. But the Japanese government under Abe shows no signs of softening. It even added fuel to the fire by visiting the Yasukuni Shrine. It insists on further revising its textbooks, whitewashing Japanese war crimes. Chinese and Japanese nationalist sentiments are escalating. The outside world long ago concluded that the situation will get worse before it gets better. Consider the big picture. Consider practical interests. We appeal to all parties. War is hell. It involves life and death. When all is said and done, peace remains the highest value. Neither side should precipitate a major disaster merely because it could not endure a minor slight. Neither side should act to the detriment of its own national growth, national interests, and to regional security.

Everything has a beginning and end. The East China Sea dispute arose because Japan "nationalized" the Diaoyutai Islands. The Japanese side insists that its motives were pure. But It gave no prior warning. its behavior afterwards was unacceptable. Naturally this led to unnecessary suspicions. Once the status quo was disrupted, it became difficult to restore. Beijing established territorial waters baselines and an air defense identification zone. It dispatched maritime surveillance and fisheries vessels to Diaoyutai Islands waters. It demonstrated a willingness to go to war. The Japanese side fired back three security treaty arrows. It openly named China as the biggest threat to its national defense. It sought international support from the United States, Australia, and ASEAN. It is determined to crush Mainland China. Late last year, Abe visited the Yasukuni Shrine, in a move deliberately calculated to provoke Mainland China. No wonder the Mainland Chinese Foreign Ministry named Abe persona non grata. A vicious cycle has formed between Mainland China and Japan.

Escalating tensions and conflict involve a process. First the parties exchange verbal threats. They halt exchanges. They withdraw diplomatic personnel. They impose economic sanctions. They dispatch troops. They stockpile materiel. A small-scale conflict becomes full-scale war. There are invariably warning signs. Most importantly, the countries involved must not send complex, contradictory signals. They must avoid misunderstandings and miscalculations. After all, rationally speaking, neither Mainland China nor Japan, nor even the United States, considers conflict absolutely necessary. In case the situation spins out of control, it will be a lose/lose, lose/lose/lose, everyone loses scenario. No country will benefit. Consider the situation logically. Many believe the United States hopes to provoke a Sino-Japanese conflict in order to undermine Mainland China's modernization. But such opportunism is far too risky. The consequences are far too unpredictable. America cannot afford such a gamble.

He who creates a problem ought to solve the problem. As matters stand, Mainland China cannot accept Japan's "nationalization" of the Diaoyutai Islands. Beijing has already delineated its territorial waters baselines. It has no reason to rescind its air defense identification zone. Japan may refuse to recognize Beijing's air defense identification zone. Japan's desire to become a "normal nation" is understandable. But whatever the outcome, Tokyo must confront Japan's past. It must dispel Asian-Pacific doubts about its reversion to militarism. In particular, Japan must acknowledge the reality of a rising Mainland China. It must deal with the WWII war criminals enshrined in the Yasukuni Shrine. It must avoid pouring salt into China and South Korea's wounds. It must seek diplomatic solutions based on current realities. Abe's empty rhetoric and lies will only increase the complexity of the problem. He must says something more constructive. He must do something more substantive. He must not go too far. That is how he can ease the current conflict.

We also have some suggestion for Mainland China. This is the 120th anniversary of First Sino-Japanese War. For over 100 years, the Chinese people have endured humiliation. The entire nation seeks to restore China's glorious history. Today a thriving Mainland China is a reality. Essentially the problem of being invaded, of being starved, and of being denounced has been solved. The Chinese people have the opportunity to contribute to peaceful development and economic prosperity. Unless there is no alternative, Beijing must safeguard China's national sovereignty, national security, and its pursuit of economic prosperity. Its national strength must have a firm foundation. If harsh words are required, it must utter them in a quiet voice. It must resort to more civilized means than others use to solve problems. America's hegemonic mannerism, and its "Big Stick" approach, is alien to China's political tradition. The best military strategy is an intelligent military strategy. A just cause will invariably gain broad support. Winning without fighting is always the best policy. If refusing to endure a minor slight results in a major debacle, and deprives China of the opportunity to restore its former glory, the CCP will go down in infamy.

Lastly, we must address President Ma Ying-jeou's long touted East China Sea Peace Initiative. Some say his proposal includes only principles, and lacks a roadmap for concrete action. But this sees only part of the picture. All of the countries involved have concerns they dare not express publicly. But privately all believe the disputes should be shelved, the resources developed jointly, and the dispute settled peacefully. In this regard, we must give the Ma government its due. Taipei's voice may be small. But the countries involved should all be thinking along these lines, and seeking to solve the problem. Taipei's proposal shows that it is a defender of the regional peace.

社論－得道多助才是中華民族復興之路
    2014-01-07 01:54
    中國時報
    【本報訊】

    　新年伊始，東北亞緊張局勢並未好轉，北京儘管還未再度說出「中國人不怕鬼、不信邪」的狠話，但不惜奉陪到底的重話已經出口，大陸軍方及媒體迭有中、日終須一戰的呼聲，不過日本安倍政府非但未有絲毫軟化的跡象，還火上加油的前去參拜靖國神社，執意進一步修改教科書，在中日雙方民族主義情緒高漲的情況下，儘管外界早已認知，在局勢好轉之前，情況恐怕還有進一步惡化的可能，但不管是從大局出發或是現實利益考量，我們還是要懇切的呼籲相關各方，兵凶戰危，死生大事，一切還是要以和為貴，任何一方都不應小不忍而亂大謀，而損害了自己的國家發展、民族利益及區域安全。

    　物有本末、事有終始，東海爭議起源於日本將釣魚台國有化，雖然日方辯稱動機單純而善良，但自己的善意事前未見溝通、事後又不能讓人接受，當然就會引發必要或不必要的猜忌，而且現狀一經破壞即難恢復。北京先後劃出領海基線及防空識別區，派出海監、漁政船前往釣魚台海域執行公務，大有不惜一戰之慨。日方則是還以顏色的祭出安保三箭，明白把中國視為最大的國防威脅，並且分赴美、澳、東協爭取國際支持，企圖全面圍勦中共，而安倍去年底祭拜靖國神社的舉動更是蓄意挑動中方最敏感的神經，難怪中共外交部要將安倍列為不受歡迎人物。中、日雙方的惡性循環已經基本形成。

    　基本上，緊張和衝突的升高會有一個發展的過程，涉案各方會先由口頭威懾、中斷交流、撤使斷交、經濟制裁，調兵遣將、屯積糧草，從小規模的衝突再發展成全面的戰爭，事前總會有跡象可循。當前最重要的是，所有涉案的相關國家都不要送出錯綜複雜、前後矛盾的訊號，避免任何一方誤解、誤判局勢，畢竟在理性的層面上，中、日雙方，甚至美國都沒有蓄意製造衝突的絕對必要，萬一事態失控這將會是一個雙輸、三輸、多輸的最壞局面，沒有任何一個國家可以從中漁利。從邏輯上推敲，許多人相信美國想要挑起中、日衝突，從而破壞中國現代化的進程，但這種火中取栗的作法風險太大，美國未必承擔得起不可預知的後果。

    　若說解鈴還需繫鈴人，於今之計，中國當然不能接受日本把釣魚台國有化，北京已經劃定、設立的領海基線、防空識別區當然也無撤回之理，日本可以不承認大陸的防空識別區，它想要建立正常國家的意圖雖然可以理解，但東京好歹還是要坦誠面對其過去的歷史，祛除亞太國家對其重返軍國主義的疑慮，尤其是日本必須理性面對已然成長茁壯的中國大陸，務實處理靖國神社中所供奉的二次世界大戰戰犯問題，避免觸動尤其是中、韓兩國的歷史傷痛，然後大家再在當前現狀的基礎上，用外交的方式來徐圖解決之道。安倍的空言、大話只會增加問題的複雜性，多說好話、多做實事、莫為已甚，應為當前緩解衝突之道。

    　同樣的，我們對中國大陸也有一些良心的建議，今年是甲午戰爭120周年，百多年來中國人受盡了欺凌，舉國上下莫不以尋回歷史的光榮為職志，如今中國大陸成長茁壯已成事實，不但基本解決了挨打、挨餓、挨罵的問題，還有餘力為世界的和平發展、經濟的繁榮做出一定程度的貢獻，除非萬不得已，北京今天更應該在維護國家主權、保護國民安全、追求經濟發展之餘，以實力為基礎，學會輕聲說重話，用更文明的方式來解決問題。美式胳膊粗、棍子長的霸權作風並非中國政治文化的一部分，上兵伐謀，做一個得道多助的善霸，不戰而屈人之兵才是上上之策，若小不忍而亂大謀，毀了中國復興機會，中共將成為千古罪人。

    　最後，我們還是要談到馬英九總統所一再主張的東海和平倡議，雖然有人說這種主張只有原則，缺乏具體的行動綱領和路線圖，但這是只知其一不知其二，所有相關國家即使在公開場合都有各種各樣的顧慮，不敢公開給予肯定，但私下莫不認為這種擱置爭議、共同開發、和平解決的提議才是解決衝突的最佳方案。對此，我們還是要給馬政府相當的肯定和支持，也呼籲相關國家莫以台灣人微言輕，而應朝此方向思考，謀求解決問題，台灣的這種主張也說明了我們正是區域和平的維護者和諦造者。