APEC’s Bright Spot, Taiwan's Blind Spot

APEC’s Bright Spot, Taiwan's Blind Spot
United Daily News Editorial (Taipei, Taiwan, ROC)
A Translation
November 15, 2014

Executive Summary: Thirteen years ago, during the Shanghai APEC summit, the Mainland authorities spoke of Mainland China’s “peaceful rise.”  Recently, during the Beijing summit, Mainland authorities spoke on an equal footing with the United States, of “shared rule by great nations.” The President of the Republic of the Philippines will be hosting APEC next year. Under the rippling waters and shade trees of Yanqi Lake, Aquino the Third could only joke that a small nation could not put on such a grand show.

Full Text Below:

Thirteen years ago, during the Shanghai APEC summit, the Mainland authorities spoke of Mainland China’s “peaceful rise.”  Recently, during the Beijing summit, Mainland authorities spoke on an equal footing with the United States, of “shared rule by great nations.” The President of the Republic of the Philippines will be hosting APEC next year. Under the rippling waters and shade trees of Yanqi Lake, Aquino the Third could only joke that a small nation could not put on such a grand show.

The current APEC meeting has become the Mainland authorities’ stage for its dream of a Great Nation. Behind the scenes, other governments competed with each other in an attempt to strut their stuff. It is often said that "diplomacy is an extension of domestic politics." National rulers who encounter problems at home often try to reverse their fortunes or minimize their domestic losses through foreign relations.

Take the South Korean authorities for example. Their FTA with the Mainland Chinese authorities has attracted much attention. Upon taking office last year, President Park Geun-hye promoted her “economics of happiness" policy. Her goal was to change the ROK-US and ROK-EU FTAs signed by the Lee Myung-bak government. These widened the gap between rich and poor. She actively supported SMEs, and delayed the signing of FTAs with other countries. She hopes to change the chaebol-dominated economy. But large chaebols dominate the Korean economy. The impact of her "economics of happiness" has been limited.

In recent years South Korea has fallen victim to "Samsung's Disease." The main causes of this disease are the sharp depreciation of the Japanese Yen, pressure from Apple iPhones, and a rising tide of Mainland China mobile phones and other products. Samsung now faces an unprecedented dilemma. Samsung's contribution to South Korea’s GDP has slipped from 23% to 18%. This has had a severe impact on the economy. To overcome this economic hardship,
Park Geun-hye has chosen a "politics depends upon the United States, economics depends upon China" strategy. She has fast-tracked the FTA with Mainland China. She hopes to take a bite out of Mainland China’s domestic market, thereby addressing Korean companies’ financial difficulties. Park Geun-hye has adopted a "first make friends, then do business" approach, that is definitely Mainland China’s cup of tea.

Now take Japan. Mainland China’s Xi and Japan’s Abe held a Xi-Abe meeting. Xi Jinping received Abe with chilly formality. He never once cracked a smile. He fidgeted while listening to the translators. He looked away from Abe. How did Abe feel? Probably embarrassed. The atmosphere of this meeting with Japan may have been cool. But at least Xi Jinping and Abe shook hands. The discord between the two countries has not vanished. But at least the meeting signaled a reconciliation of sorts. The two governments’ administrative agencies and industrial firms can now resume normal exchanges. The impasse has been broken.

As soon as Abe assumed power, he attempted to restore Japan's great nation status through a two-pronged military and economic approach. He also butted heads with Beijing by claiming sovereignty over the Diaoyutai Islands. Abe’s hardline military and diplomatic posture caused difficulties for Japanese companies operating in Mainland China. The Abenomics "three arrows" failed to achieve the results expected. This led to a sharp drop in his support. Abe went to great lengths to arrange a meeting with Xi Jinping. He repeatedly dispatched negotiators. He agreed to make concessions on Diaoyutai sovereignty and Yasukuni Shrine visits. Abe was forced to bite the bullet in exchange for a brief 30 minute meeting with Xi, approved only at the last minute. He was forced to eat crow for his past insolence. Abe may have been embarrassed. but he had little choice.

Finally, take the United States. For President Obama the midterm elections were a debacle. He arrived in Beijing a lame duck. He summoned up all his courage for a showdown with Beijing at High Noon. Obama's stance was simultaneously humble and headstrong. He said that the United States needs its partnership with Mainland China. To win the goodwill of the Mainland authorities on Hong Kong, he expressed support for freedom of speech but added that the United States would not get involved. This was realistic and helped establish bilateral political trust.

On international anti-terrorism issues, Obama successfully obtained the Mainland authorities’ support. Beijing agreed to provide 10 million USD to help Afghanistan rebuild. It agreed to the establishment of a tripartite United States, Mainland China, Afghanistan dialogue mechanism. On bilateral issues, Beijing and Washington agreed to establish a military confidence building mechanism, to reduce the risk of accidents. They relaxed requirements on business visas. They made Sino-US "bilateral investment agreement" a priority issue. More importantly, Obama and Xi Jinping reached an agreement on climate and carbon reduction issues. The New York Times described this achievement as "extraordinary."

Consider the conduct of the governments of the United States, Japan, and South Korea. Each government has its difficulties. Those in power must assess their situation. They must attempt to break through. They must not squander any opportunities. Obama’s philosophy of peace, proceeds from the easy to the difficult, from differences to common ground. To reverse his decline in approval back home, Park Geun-hye changed course to restart her FTA strategy, and used APEC to highlight her desire to restore the glory of the Korean economy. Abe bit the bullet. He attempted to create an atmosphere in which Beijing and Tokyo could remove their armor and Japan’s domestic economy could bounce back.

As far as Taipei is concerned, we missed our flight. But we must try to catch the red eye. Elections are not everything. We face tough problems and difficult dilemmas. We must maintain long-term growth to ensure the nation’s survival. This is the goal toward which we must strive.

APEC亮點 台灣的盲點
【聯合報╱社論】
2014.11.15 02:23 am

比起十三年前的上海ＡＰＥＣ峰會中國大陸表現「和平崛起」之姿，這次的北京峰會，中國大陸展現的是要與美國平起平坐的「大國共治」企圖。在雁棲湖水波蕩漾、樹影婆娑的點綴下，明年ＡＰＥＣ主辦國菲律賓總統艾奎諾三世只能自嘆弗如，笑稱「小國」營造不出這種大排場。

這次ＡＰＥＣ會議，成為中國大陸展現大國夢的華麗舞台；在幕後，其他參與國家也都爭相奔走、斡旋，企圖在這個舞台上找到自己伸展身段的時光。所謂「外交是內政的延伸」，那些在國內遇到難題或困境的領導人，更是企圖藉此逆勢翻轉，藉外交運籌挽回或抵銷內政的不利情勢。

先看與中國敲定自貿協定而深受矚目的韓國。朴槿惠總統去年上台後提出了「幸福經濟學」政策，目的是為改變李明博政府簽署「韓美」及「韓歐」ＦＴＡ所引發的貧富差距加大；她除積極扶植中小企業，也放慢與他國簽署ＦＴＡ的進程，希望改變大財閥主導的經濟體制。但由於韓國經濟對大財閥倚賴甚深，「幸福經濟學」的效果並不顯著。

近兩年韓國出現了所謂的「三星病」，主要是在日圓大幅貶值、蘋果手機壓境下，再加上中國本土製造的手機等用品紛紛崛起，讓三星面臨了空前的困境。三星產值佔韓國ＧＤＰ從廿三％滑落到十八％，這對經濟造成嚴重衝擊。為了突破此一經濟困境，朴槿惠選擇「政治靠美國、經濟靠中國」的策略，選擇加速與大陸簽署ＦＴＡ，希望藉著搶攻中國內需市場，來突破韓國企業面臨的經營困境。朴槿惠這種「先交朋友、後做生意」的方式，確實很合乎中國大陸的口味。

再看日本的表現。這次，在中日兩國領導人的「習安會」上，習近平以冷漠的姿態接待安倍，嘴角不露一絲笑容，甚至不耐煩聽譯員翻譯，就別過臉去；在安倍心裡，大概只有難堪二字可言。然而，對日本而言，不管這場會面氣氛再怎麼冷淡，習近平與安倍兩人一握手，就算不代表兩國之間的一切齟齬煙消雲散，至少是一個「和解」的訊號，兩國的行政部門及工商業者都因此可以重新恢復正常交往，僵局就打開了。

安倍上台之後，透過軍事及經濟雙管齊下的方式，企圖恢復日本的大國榮光，卻也為釣魚台主權之爭與北京鬧得不可開交。安倍在軍事和外交上的強勢，造成日本企業在中國經營的困境，而安倍經濟學「三支箭」均已射出卻未收到預期效果，也讓他的支持度大幅跌落。這次安倍為了換取與習近平的一會，可謂煞費苦心，不斷派人疏通交涉，同意在釣魚台主權及參拜靖國神社爭議上表示退讓，直到最後一刻，才換得短短三十分鐘的「習安會」。如此「忍辱負重」，正是為了彌償先前的張狂，雖然難堪，安倍不得不為。

最後再看美國。歐巴馬總統方遭到期中選舉的慘敗，帶著跛腳的傷口來到北京，鼓勇與日正當中的習近平抗衡。歐巴馬的姿態卑亢有致，他說「美國需要中國大陸這個夥伴」，以博取中國的好感；在香港占中議題上，他表明支持言論自由卻澄清美國「未涉入」的立場，可謂實事求是，有助建立雙邊的政治信任。

在國際反恐議題上，歐巴馬成功獲得中國支持，北京不但同意提供一千萬美元來協助阿富汗重建，並同意成立美、中、阿三邊對話機制。在雙邊議題上，中美兩國建立軍事互信機制，以降低意外發生的風險，同時放寬商務簽證，並將中美「雙邊投資協議」列為優先議題。更重要的是，歐巴馬還與習近平在氣候及減碳議題上達成共識，這項成就，被紐約時報形容為「非比尋常」。

從美、日、韓三國的作為看，每個國家都有本難念的經，重要是主政者必須審時度勢，設法突破，不放過任何機會。歐巴馬抓住「以和為貴」的哲學，從易到難、異中求同，以扭轉他在國內受挫的頹勢。朴槿惠以「改弦易轍」重啟ＦＴＡ戰略，並利用ＡＰＥＣ展露她找回韓國經濟之榮光的企圖。安倍則「忍辱負重」，營造中日卸下甲冑的氛圍，冀讓國內經濟能觸底反彈。

對台灣而言，我們雖然沒搭上「早班車」，卻仍應努力趕上「晚集」。選舉不是一切，面對艱難、化解困境、保持國家的長期發展於不墜，才是我們要努力的目標。