Transform the KMT, Broaden the Blue Camp Path

Transform the KMT, Broaden the Blue Camp Path
China Times Editorial (Taipei, Taiwan, ROC)
A Translation
December 1, 2014

Executive Summary: The nine in one elections inflicted the worst defeat on the KMT since it relocated to Taiwan in 1949. but the  KMT need not be too discouraged. Falling into the valley of the shadow of death is an opportunity to finally see its own blind spots. The KMT should consider expanding the concept of a blue camp. The KMT path should become a blue camp path. This would regain it the support of mainstream public opinion, and once again make it the leader of the “peoples path.”

Full Text Below:

The nine in one elections inflicted the worst defeat on the KMT since it relocated to Taiwan in 1949. Sean Lien lost to Wen-Je Ko by 240,000 votes in the capital city of Taipei, a blue camp stronghold. Island wide, the number of counties and municipalities headed by the KMT plummeted from four cities and 11 counties to one city and five counties.  The blame has fallen on Ma Ying-jeou. Political reality will probably force him to resign as party chairman during the Wednesday Central Standing Committee meeting. A new election will probably be held within three months.

Support for the Kuomintang collapsed for many reasons. It did not occur overnight. Put simply, the KMT failed to win peoples’ hearts and minds. Ma failed to win peoples’ hearts and minds. The party’s nominees failed to win peoples’ hearts and minds. The party’s political path failed to win peoples’ hearts and minds. The situation was irremediable.

President Ma must begin by acknowledging his failings. Specifically, he must bear responsibility for the defeat. The public has spoken. President Ma failed to win peoples’ hearts and minds. That was the main reason for the KMT’s debacle. Before the election Eric Chu estimated that he would receive 300,000 votes. When it was all over, he squeaked by with a 20,000 vote margin. Wu Chi-yang’s defeat was even more unexpected. Neither candidate had a poor record or lacked charisma. Many voters considered voting for Chu or Wu. But they chose to punish the Kuomintang instead. They punished KMT candidates not just in New Taipei City and Taoyuan, but in every voting district across the island.

Ma Ying-jeou has decided to resign the party chairmanship. But that is hardly enough to atone for his failings. He let the KMT down. He must now reinvigorate the party. The party must now hold a party chairmanship election and nominate a presidential candidate. Ma should use the vestiges of his political influence to help KMT party leaders resolve the problems in its nomination process. KMT support for peaceful development in cross-Strait relations will win the most public support.

The second reason for the KMT’s defeat, was that its nominees failed to win peoples’ hearts and minds. This was evident from the resistance Sean Lien encountered in Taipei. In recent years, young people have become increasingly unhappy with political dynasties. This has led to intense resentment against “political elites.” Nevertheless the KMT nominated Sean Lien as its candidate for capital city mayorship. The KMT was oblivious to public sentiment. The KMT's nomination process was also dysfunctional. Wen-Je Ko’s wave of populist approval was due in part to his personal charm. But the main reason for his popularity was the contrast between him and his opponent Sean Lien. During the nomination process, when Sean Lien and Ting Shou-chung were rivals, Wen-Je Ko publicly acknowledged that Sean Lien would be easier to defeat. Yet the KMT nomination process, either by intent or by default, set Sean Lien up for defeat.

The situation was similar in Keelung. Keelung is a diehard blue camp stronghold. But every KMT nominee for Keelung mayor over the past 20 years has been worse than the last one. Yet the KMT nominated yet another dubious city council speaker. The KMT treated loyal supporters in Keelung with contempt. The eventual result was an unprecedented KMT defeat in Keelung.

The nomination process must be reformed. KMT party primaries should be conducted by registered party members. Anyone who professes to be member of the Kuomintang or agrees with KMT ideology, should be allowed to become a registered KMT member and participate in the nomination and election of the party’s chairman and presidential candidate.

The KMT changed from an authoritarian style political party. It underwent democratization. Chiang Ching-kuo, Lee Teng-hui, Lien Chan, and Ma Ying-jeou were all political “stars." The 2014 election defeat has significantly shrunk the territory headed up by the KMT. It also marks the beginning of a new era, during which the KMT is no longer blessed with political stars. The KMT must expand its base and seek new supporters. Members of the KMT, the New Party, the People First Party, and independents who identify with Kuomintang premises should be allowed to register as candidates for KMT party chairman or KMT presidential nominee. Upon registration, aspiring candidates should be allowed to participate in debates about the party’s political direction. This would make the KMT more inclusive and appealing. Only the deconstruction to the KMT will allow it to appeal to more people. The KMT’s political path can be divided along two lines. Left vs. right, and reunification vs. independence. These two lines are not parallel. They are wavy lines that often intersect. A major debate over the KMT’s political path would be more than merely an internal Kuomintang party line debate. It would be a debate over the KMT’s leadership and survival as a political party. Such a debate over reunification vs. independence could take many forms. It would enrich the KMT. It would guide collective thinking on Taiwan.

For example, should the KMT take a right wing path and promote economic growth, or take a left wing path and promote economic redistribution? The nine in one elections were local elections. But KMT strategy was to underscore FTAs. The KMT was defeated in the nine in one elections. Does that mean that it must now oppose free trade, and instead stress domestic markets? Must it cease fighting for FTAs and instead stress “the little things that make us happy?” The KMT championed "no [immediate] reunification, no Taiwan independence, and no use of force." and the "1992 consensus, one China, two interpretations." It vigorously promoted peaceful development. During this election the KMT was defeated by the Democratic Progressive Party, which demands Taiwan independence. What does that mean? Can the KMT transcend the "three noes" and the "1992 consensus?" Can it establish a mutually unsatisfactory but mutually acceptable cross-Strait framework? Can it redraw its road map for cross-Strait peace? These issues must be debated by blue camp voters.

The KMT need not be too discouraged. Falling into the valley of the shadow of death is an opportunity to finally see its own blind spots. The KMT should consider expanding the concept of a blue camp. The KMT path should become a blue camp path. This would regain it the support of mainstream public opinion, and once again make it the leader of the “peoples path.”

時論－改造國民黨 擴大藍營路線
2014年12月01日 04:10
本報訊

九合一大選，國民黨遭遇了1949年遷台以來最慘痛的敗局。連勝文在鐵票首都大輸柯文哲24萬票，全國執政版圖從4都11縣市，掉到只剩1都5縣。究責的聲浪湧向馬英九，讓他在政治現實的壓力下，可能於周三中常會宣布辭去黨主席，並於3個月內完成改選。

國民黨崩盤的原因很多，並非一夕造成，簡單而言就是不得人心，馬不得人心、黨的提名不能反映人心向背、黨的路線與論述不得人心，現況非大破已不能大立。

馬主席要從罪己出發，更明確承擔敗選責任。眾議咸同，馬總統不得人心，是國民黨全面慘敗的最主要原因，朱立倫選前民調評估可贏30萬票，最後卻以2萬票險勝，吳志揚更意外落選，這不是他們政績不好或魅力不夠，而是許多選民在考慮應肯定朱、吳兩人或教訓國民黨時，選擇了後者。這種懲罰效應，不只在新北市與桃園發生，在全國各選區都普遍發生。

馬英九決定辭去黨主席，仍遠遠不足以向國民黨的歷史贖罪，他還必須在強化黨的生命力方面有更多作為。接下來就要舉行黨主席選舉與國民黨總統候選人提名，他應該利用政治生命的餘暉，領導國民黨解決黨的提名機制失靈問題，讓國民黨支持兩岸和平發展的理念能取得最大程度的民意支持。

國民黨提名候選人不得人心，是此次敗選的第二大原因，這從連勝文在台北的苦戰可見一斑。近年來，年輕人對家族政治的不滿愈益高漲，轉化為對「權貴」的強烈怨念，國民黨卻仍提名了連勝文做為首都候選人，意謂著國民黨與社會氛圍完全脫節，也顯示了國民黨提名制度的失效。柯文哲捲起的素人旋風，固然有其個人魅力因素，但這氣旋的快速膨脹，最大的加持者不是別人，正是與素人恰成對照組的連勝文。在連勝文與丁守中角逐提名時，口無遮攔的柯文哲都說連勝文比較好打，但國民黨還是放任失靈的提名制度，讓連勝文出線挨打。

基隆市情況類似，仗著基隆被雨淋也不生鏽的藍軍鐵票，國民黨近20年來提名的基隆市長候選人一個比一個糟糕，由議長轉市長的地方政治人物屢屢出包，國民黨卻依然麻木地提名了一個在初選前即知爭議非常大的議長。這種吃定基隆鐵票的心態，終於讓國民黨在基隆面對前所未有的慘敗。

要矯治提名機制的失靈，國民黨應將黨內選舉改造為黨員登記制，只要自認是國民黨員或認同國民黨理念者，都可以登記為選民，參與黨主席選舉與總統候選人的提名初選投票。

國民黨是從威權型政黨逐漸走上民主化的，從蔣經國到李登輝、連戰、馬英九，都是政治明星。2014選舉初敗，國民黨不但版圖大幅縮小，更進入一個未曾經歷過、沒有政治明星加持的新階段。國民黨必須盡量擴大認同，爭取支持者。不管是國民黨、新黨、親民黨、無黨籍，只要認同國民黨理念，都可以登記為參選人，角逐黨主席或總統提名，登記後，有志參選者要進行路線大辯論，把國民黨的概念擴大化、全民化後，才能透過解構國民黨、重新組構成可以爭取最大化認同的國民黨。

路線大辯論可以劃分為兩個思維線：左右與統獨，這兩個思維線不是平行線，而是呈波浪交集的狀態。這時候，國民黨的路線大辯論將不只是國民黨一黨的路線辯論，也是國民黨領導台灣生存發展大戰略的辯論。這種絞揉左右與統獨的辯論，可以以許多不同的議題形式呈現，將豐富國民黨的論述，也將引導台灣社會的集體思考。

例如，國民黨未來要走的是促進發展的右翼路線？或是強調分配的左翼路線？這次九合一大選雖是地方選舉，但國民黨將之上綱為FTA戰略大會戰，九合一大敗，是否意謂反自由貿易、重內需市場的小確幸，擊敗了向外拚搏FTA？過去國民黨靠「不統不獨不武」與「九二共識，一中各表」，大力推動的和平發展論述，在這次選舉被堅持台獨黨綱的民進黨擊潰，又意謂著什麼？國民黨應該如何突破守勢的「三不」與「九二共識」，重新建構一種雙重「不滿意但接受」的兩岸大論述，取回兩岸和平發展路線的正當性呢？這些議題都需要經過辯論凝聚藍營選民的共識。

國民黨不必太過灰心喪志，掉進死亡蔭谷正是從絕處檢視盲點的契機。不妨讓國民黨概念擴大為藍營概念，將國民黨路線擴大為藍營路線，重新贏得主流民意的支持，再度成為領導台灣的「全民路線」。