Compromise or Dig In: Obama's Choices

Compromise or Dig In: Obama's Choices
United Daily News Editorial (Taipei, Taiwan, ROC)
A Translation
November 7, 2014

Executive Summary: Obama has two years left in his term. He must cooperate with his rivals, even under adverse political circumstances. He may then be able to preserve his legacy, and help his own party's presidential candidate win in 2016. If so, he can avoid becoming a lame duck stymied whichever way he turns.

Full Text Below: 

US President Barack Obama delivered a speech following the midterm election defeat. He said he has heard the voice of the people. He said “Obviously, Republicans had a good night. And they deserve credit for running good campaigns.” He decided to meet with congressional leaders of both parties today. The executive branch and Congress will discuss how they can work together. He said they must work together, to “try and make this town work."

Try and make this town work. That is easier said than done. If a chief executive permits passions to determine his behaviour, if the ruling and opposition parties remain at loggerheads, if a consensus cannot be reached, no town can ever work. Take a long look at  America's problems. For people on Taiwan, it is like looking into a mirror.

Since the 2010 midterm elections, American politics has been embroiled in endless battles. Obama feels he has a popular mandate. His successful re-election was followed by vigorous Republican opposition. He has even threatened to issue executive orders overriding congressional opposition. By contrast, in 2010 and 2012, Republicans obtained a majority in the House, forcing the White House to defer to a "new mandate." The two parties find themselves at loggerheads over Obamacare, the immigration bill, the debt ceiling, and even the budget. The federal government is shutdown, the public blasts Washington, and the world looks on in disbelief.

During the mid-term elections, the Republicans scored another win. They achieved an unprecedented majority in the House of Representatives, the largest since World War II. They also achieved a majority in the Senate. They took both in one fell swoop. Does this mean Obama has become a lame duck? Must he now take orders from the Republican Party, and be trampled under foot? Consider the reaction from Wall Street. The three major indexes have reached new highs. That suggests that investors welcomed the result. Obama conceded defeat. He adopted a lower profile. But that does not mean he intends to give Republicans carte blanche. White House sources say that Obama feels the election results were unfair to him. Many Democratic candidates did not want his endorsement. He was denied the opportunity to show what he could do. Obama said "Congress will pass some bills I cannot sign. I’m pretty sure I’ll take some actions (use the veto) that some in Congress will not like. That’s natural. That’s how our democracy works."

Obama has only two years left in his term. The midterm elections were a disaster. He can choose to bow and compromise with his political opponents, and preserve his legacy. He can choose to fight to the bitter end, uphold his principles, and risk losing everything. Obama says he understands that he must “make this town work.” He will choose compromise on certain issues. On other issues however, he will fight to the bitter end, and refuse to yield.

Statesmen differ from politicians. To achieve their goals, they know when to compromise, without compromising their principles. Obama knows that he and the Republicans can promote certain policies, such as corporate taxes, trade and infrastructure bills, and in particular, the promotion of free trade.  Republicans must be be more aggressive than the Democrats. If the Republican-led Congress can pass the "Trade Promotion Authority Act" it will have a decisive influence on the Asian-Pacific TPP  and the US-Europe TTIP.

The Democrats suffered a major defeat, mainly due to the economy. The US economy has improved. But the general public, including families, are not feeling its effects. If Obama has a falling out with Congress, his achievements will come to naught. If Obama compromises with the Republicans, and ensures an economic upturn, over the next two or three years, Obamacare and minimum wage laws could pass. History could rehabilitate Obama.

Obama has spoken with House and Senate leaders since the election. Today he will meet with leaders of both parties, to discuss means of cooperation. Republican congressional leaders welcome the prospect, and expressed a willingness to cooperate. But some Republicans think they should put Obama's feet to the fire. If the Republicans are given an inch, but take a mile, if they abuse their advantage in Congress, they might alienate the American people. The Republicans now control both houses of Congress. They must assume responsibility for governance. They cannot shirk responsibility and repeatedly promote deadlock.

Obama and the Republicans are also willing to cooperate on diplomacy. This weekend, Obama will travel to Asia to participate in three-day international summit, the APEC Leaders Meeting, the East Asia Summit, and the G20 summit. Some leaders, such as Putin from Russia, may revel in the defeat of the President. Some leaders, such as Japan's Abe, may fear US policy change.
They may attempt to cozy up to Obama. Beijing however, is realistic about the Obama-Xi meeting. Diplomatic power belongs to the President. Both underestimating and overestimating one's opponents is unwise.

Obama has two years left in his term. He will still have a direct impact on the 2016 presidential election. The midterm elections involve a peculiar political phenomenon. The Democrats lost. But this has inspired the party to seek the presidency in 2016, and unite under the most obvious candidate Hillary Clinton.
The Republicans won. But this has resulted in infighting over coveted posts, and the party's “seven dwarfs” refusing to yield to each other. The GOP has no obvious front runner, creating a situation favourable for the Democratic Party.

Obama has two years left in his term. He must cooperate with his rivals, even under adverse political circumstances. He may then be able to preserve his legacy, and help his own party's presidential candidate win in 2016. If so, he can avoid becoming a lame duck stymied whichever way he turns.

妥協或硬幹：歐巴馬未來兩年的抉擇
【聯合報╱社論】
2014.11.07 02:20 am

美國總統歐巴馬在期中選舉慘敗後現身講話，說他「聽到了民眾的聲音」，也讚揚共和黨享受了美好的一夜「是應得的」。他並決定今天和國會兩黨領袖會面，商討接下來行政部門與國會的運作模式，「大家必須一起合作，讓這個國家運轉」。

「讓國家運轉」，說起來簡單，做起來很難。如果元首意氣用事，如果朝野相持不下，如果各部門沒有共識，一個國家就無法在軌道上順利運轉。看美國的問題，台灣像看到了鏡子。

自二○一○年期中選舉後，美國政治即陷入無休止的惡鬥僵局。歐巴馬自認擁有選民託付，再加上連任成功，強勢對付共和黨的杯葛，甚至揚言以總統的行政命令排除國會的阻撓。相對的，共和黨則接連在二○一○和二○一二取得眾議院多數，因而要求白宮尊重「新民意」，兩黨就這樣槓上。從歐記健保、移民法案、舉債上限，乃至預算僵局，美國演出聯邦政府關門大戲，民眾罵聲連連，全球咸感難以置信。

這次期中選舉，共和黨再度獲勝，不僅在眾院取得自二次大戰以來空前的多數，參議院也一舉超過半數。這是否意味歐巴馬自此成為跛鴨總統，必須聽命於共和黨，任人宰割？從華爾街的反應看，三大指數同創新高，顯示投資人歡迎此一結果。但歐巴馬雖放低姿態承認失敗，卻未必會讓共和黨予取予求。白宮消息說，歐巴馬覺得選舉結果對他並不公平，很多民主黨候選人不邀他站台，讓他從頭到尾沒有機會表現。歐巴馬還說：「國會將通過一些我不能簽署的法案，我確定我會採取一些行動（動用否決權）；國會有些人會不喜歡，這很自然，這就是我們的民主運作的方式。」

只剩兩年任期的歐巴馬，面對期中選舉的慘敗，可以選擇低頭和政敵妥協，以保全自己的政績；他也可以選擇不顧一切奮戰到底，維護自己的原則，卻要冒最後一事無成的風險。從目前看，歐巴馬了解「讓國家運轉」的重要，他會選擇局部妥協，但在某些議題上，他仍將奮戰到底，不會屈服。

「政治人物」與「政客」的不同就在於：為了自己的目標，要懂得妥協，卻不能失去立場和原則。歐巴馬知道，有些政策可以和共和黨一起推動，例如公司稅、貿易及基礎設施的法案。尤其自由貿易的推動，共和黨比民主黨人要積極；如果共和黨主導的國會能通過《貿易促進授權法》，這對目前亞太的ＴＰＰ與美歐的ＴＴＩＰ將有決定性影響。

這次民主黨大敗，主因就在經濟。儘管美國經濟大勢已經好轉，但是一般民眾與家庭無感，歐巴馬若與國會鬧翻，將會前功盡棄。歐巴馬如能與共和黨妥協，推動經濟好轉，未來三兩年後，俟全民健保、基本工資政策效果顯現，歷史評價可能還歐巴馬一個公道。

歐巴馬選後分別與參眾兩院領袖通話，今天也將邀集兩黨領袖會晤，討論合作方向。對此，共和黨國會領袖表示歡迎，也願意合作，但部分共和黨人卻認為還應該給歐巴馬更多苦頭。事實上，如果共和黨得寸進尺，要在國會耍酷，未必是美國民眾所樂見；至少，共和黨已控制參眾兩院，也須對國家治理負起責任，不可能對行政癱瘓一再推卸責任。

歐巴馬和共和黨合作的意願，也顯現在外交領域。本周末，歐巴馬將前往亞太一連參加三項國際峰會：ＡＰＥＣ領袖會議、東亞高峰會以及Ｇ20高峰會。有些領袖──如俄國的普亭，也許會更看扁這位慘敗的總統，有些領袖──如日本的安倍，生怕政策生變，會更拉攏歐巴馬；但對於「歐習會」的東道主──北京而言，則必須實事求是，外交大權屬於總統，過度低估或高估對手都是不智的。

歐巴馬未來兩年的施政，對於二○一六的總統大選，仍有很直接的影響。期中選舉後最奇特的政治現象是：民主黨輸了，反而激發起黨內二○一六年求勝的意願，會讓大家團結在目前最明顯的候選人希拉蕊之下；而共和黨贏了，黨內反而爭相覬覦大位，黨內七矮人互不相讓，若無明顯可以獲勝的候選人，情勢反而對民主黨有利。

歐巴馬的最後兩年，只要掌握好與對手合作的契機，即使在不利的政治環境下，仍有機會維持自己的政績，並協助同黨總統候選人搶下大位。那樣的話，他即不致處處碰壁，跛鴨以終。