PRC-ROK FTA is not Frightening. Our Loss of Direction Is

PRC-ROK FTA is not Frightening. Our Loss of Direction Is
United Daily News Editorial (Taipei, Taiwan, ROC)
A Translation
November 11, 2014

Executive Summary: Our nation’s plans have been stalled by the nine in one elections. Throughout the coming year, the ruling and opposition parties will be focused entirely on the 2016 presidential election. How many more major policies will be obstructed? Worse still, everyone will have their heads buried in the trivialities of the nine in one elections. The next time we look up and see the world, will we even know where we are?

Full Text Below:

The PRC-ROK Free Trade Agreement has been finalized. The Shanghai and Hong Kong stock market link will begin operations the coming Monday. The Mainland authorities are promoting the Free Trade Area of the Asia-Pacific (FTAAP). Their roadmap was endorsed during the APEC summit. Developments such as these continue to unfold, wave upon wave. Yet we on Taiwan seem mere observers, incapable of seeing where we stand in all this. We let industry take the brunt of the impact. We leave behind an uncertain future for the next generation. Our nation has lost its sense of direction. How can the public not be concerned?

The PRC-ROK FTA was anticipated. Xi Jinping and Park Geun-hye announced it before the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation meeting. But the psychological impact us still exceeded expectations. Beijing and Seoul announced the agreement in advance. This had a number of effects on international relations. One. It was a blow to the US-led "Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement" (TPP), which deliberately excluded Beijing. Two. Cooperation between Beijing and Seoul in Northeast Asia sent Shinzo Abe’s hawks a powerful message. Three. Until now Beijing has been playing the nationalism card in cross-Strait relations. This announcement suggests that may change.

Vincent Siew did a decent job at APEC. At the very least, he met with Xi Jinping. The two of them resolved recent disagreements. As Siew noted, "The skies over the Straits have cleared." The next task is to improve cross-Strait interactions. The green camp media however insisted on slinging mud. They ridiculed Siew, calling him a "dwarf" in Beijing. There mentality makes one wonder just who the enemy is, and is truly chilling.

It is not difficult to see where Taiwan’s problems lie. The ruling party took part in APEC, but it evinced little ambition. It skimmed surface of cross-Strait relations. It failed to use the international venue to establish trade relations or propose new ideas. It even failed to give the long stalled STA bill a badly needed boost in the Legislative Yuan. As for the opposition, it continues to indulge in Schadenfreude. It continues sharpening its knives, hoping the government will embarrass itself. It remains indifferent to Taiwan’s image in the international arena, as if any glory or shame is none of its concern. This is the perverse “your loss is my gain” relationship between the ruling and opposition parties. Under such circumstances, how can Taipei establish sound foreign relations? How can people work together to move the country forward?

Once the PRC-ROK FTA takes effect, 90% of Korean exports to the Mainland will be tariff free. The impact on Taiwan industries will be enormous. No hyperbole is required. We cannot pretend this is not happening. Several petrochemical industry magnates predicted this. Many businesses have fled. Future monthly salaries for young people on Taiwan will not be 20,000 NTD, but 15,000. This may sound alarmist. But if we do nothing, if we remain indifferent to global developments, if we foolishly assume we can “maintain the status quo," then the nightmare of 15,000 NT monthly salaries will surely come true. When that day comes, will our generation say to the next generation?

In fact, neither Mainland China's rise nor South Korea's expansion is terrifying. What is terrifying is Taiwan’s loss of direction amidst other peoples’ progress. We on Taiwan have lost our ability to set and pursue goals. In March the STA "thirty seconds to cross the border" provision gave rise to the student movement. The students’ anger may have been real. But their anger was misdirected. The student movement may have been powerful. But its answers were wrong. The STA negotiations, conducted in smoke filled rooms, were an object of public derision. But the Sunflower Student Movement exploited this fact to incite fear and loathing toward Mainland China. The Oversight Regulations, which had life or death implications for industry, were obstructed along with the MTA. This may look like a political victory. But it was a textbook case of public reason and economic vitality being sacrificed on the altar of ideology. The Ma government shares blame. It lost its sense of direction and its ability to lead the nation. It sat back and watched as the the nation lost one golden opportunity after another.

In fact, people need to be worried about far more than the impact of the PRC-ROK FTA. The Shanghai and Hong Kong Stock Market Connection is sure to attract vast amounts of capital. The TAIEX will be subject to long term pressures. But where are our countermeasures? The DPP has blocked passage of the STA Oversight Regulations and the Cross-Strait Agreement Oversight Regulations. It insists that Taiwan can increase international trade through the TPP. But how does the DPP intend to join the TPP? The Beijing-sponsored Asian-Pacific free trade zone has been well received. A breaking in period is required of course. But the DPP blindly incites anti-Mainland sentiment, even as the region undergoes economic integration. What position will Taiwan find itself in?

Our nation’s plans have been stalled by the nine in one elections. Throughout the coming year, the ruling and opposition parties will be focused entirely on the 2016 presidential election. How many more major policies will be obstructed? Worse still, everyone will have their heads buried in the trivialities of the nine in one elections. The next time we look up and see the world, will we even know where we are?

可怕的不是中韓 怕的是台灣失去國家目標
【聯合報╱社論】
2014.11.13 02:15 am

《中韓自由貿易協定》宣告敲定後，上海與香港股市交易互聯機制「滬港通」下周一即將啟動，而中國大陸推動「亞太自由貿易區」（ＦＴＡＡＰ）的路線圖則獲ＡＰＥＣ峰會支持。對於這一波波的形勢推移，台灣似乎像個旁觀者，找不到自己著力的位置，只能把衝擊留給企業，把不確定的未來給下一代。這種國家失去目標的景象，人們不擔心嗎？

《中韓自貿協定》的進展原是意料中事，但由習近平與朴槿惠提前在亞太經合會共同宣布，對台灣的心理衝擊仍超乎預期。中韓之所以提前宣布這項協議，從國際政治的角度看，有幾個作用：第一，對美國主導之《跨太平洋夥伴協議》（ＴＰＰ）刻意排除中國的作法，算是一個下馬威；第二，以東北亞兩強的合作，對安倍在此區域的鷹派作為示以顏色；第三，就北京以「民族主義牌」經營兩岸關係，宣告已到了一個轉折點。

平實而論，蕭萬長在ＡＰＥＣ的表現，堪稱得體與稱職。至少，他和習近平的會晤，已將兩岸近期因各種齟齬而引起的不快順利化解。如同蕭萬長所言，「兩岸間的烏雲已經散了」，接下來，就是要設法營造良好的互動。即便如此，國內綠媒還在其稱謂上大作文章，譏指蕭萬長在北京遭到「矮化」；這種心態，不免讓人有「到底誰才是敵人」之慨，令人心寒。

事實上，由此也不難看出台灣的問題所在。執政黨對參與這次ＡＰＥＣ，似乎沒有展現太多企圖，只以拂去兩岸關係表面的落塵為足，而無意利用此一國際舞台經營更多邊的經貿關係，或提出可以振奮人心的新意，甚至未企圖藉此對卡關多時的服貿條例等對立法院施力敦促。至於反對陣營，則仍是抱著「看笑話」心態，磨刀霍霍等著政府出糗，而不覺得台灣在國際露臉的表現與它有榮辱與共之感。在這種「你消我長」的變態朝野關係下，台灣如何營造積極的對外關係？又如何凝聚國家正向發展的能量？

《中韓自貿協定》一旦生效，韓國出口大陸產品九十％享有零關稅，對於台灣相關產業之衝擊必然是鉅大的，這沒有必要誇張，也不可能裝作不會發生。有石化業大老因此預言，若許多企業出走，未來台灣年輕人的薪資將不是廿二Ｋ，而是一萬五。這樣的說法固然顯得危言聳聽，但如果我們什麼都不做，對世界潮流的風起雲湧一概漠然以對，以為可以「以不變應萬變」；那麼，「十五Ｋ」的詛咒難保沒有噩夢成真的一天。屆時，這一代人如何面對下一代人？

其實，可怕的不是中國的崛起或韓國的擴張，可怕的是台灣在別人的進步中找不到自己的方向，甚至失去了設定與追求目標的能力。如今回看，三月間因為服貿「卅秒過關」而掀起的那場學運，憤怒或許是真實的，但其發洩出口卻是扭曲的；力量或許是強大的，但答案卻是錯誤的。亦即，為了一個懸為眾矢之的的「服貿黑箱」，太陽花學運把社會民氣帶向「反中」、「恐中」；然後，又因「監督條例」的牽制把攸關產業存亡的「貨貿」一起卡死，這儼然是一個政治上勝利卻以社會理性和經濟生機為犧牲的典型案例。誠然，馬政府亦難辭其咎，因為它失去領導國家方向的企圖和能力，坐視國家機遇流逝而缺乏必要作為。

事實上，人們要擔憂的，何止《中韓自貿協定》之衝擊？「滬港通」的啟動，勢必吸走大量資金，台股的量能將會長期受到削減與壓抑，然而我們的因應對策在哪裡？民進黨卡死「服貿條例」和「兩岸協議監督條例」，卻宣稱台灣可以透過ＴＰＰ來加強國際貿易；請問，民進黨加入ＴＰＰ的錦囊妙計在哪裡？這次北京推動的「亞太自貿區」，各國多予正面回應，當然還有很長的路需要磨合，但如果民進黨一味催化反中情緒，未來在這個區域經貿融合的過程中，台灣要把自己放在什麼位置？

目前看來，近期台灣的國家大計都因九合一選舉而停擺；接下來，明年一整年朝野都將全力衝刺二○一六大選，多少大政又將進一步停滯。更令人不安的是，全民今天埋首於這場瑣碎的九合一選舉，當下次大家有空抬起頭來看看世界，還知不知道自己身處何方？