The Nine in One Elections are not just Local Elections

The Nine in One Elections are not just Local Elections
China Times Editorial (Taipei, Taiwan, ROC)
A Translation
November 20, 2014

Executive Summary: The nine in one elections are not just local elections. They are a choice between two paths. Voters motivated primarily by economic factors must set the agenda, and help everyone make the right choice during the elections.

Full Text Below:

In the wake of the Sunflower Student Movement, the green camp embraced a clearly anti-economic integration, anti-free trade, and anti-business policy path. It clearly distinguished its path from that of the KMT. One might say that the nine in one elections is a choice between two paths that will determine Taiwan's economic future. Taiwan has enjoyed a glorious economic past but faces a grim economic present. Given Mainland China's economic rise and the pressure of regional integration, voters motivated by rational economic considerations must make themselves heard.

Taiwan has a small scale free economy. A mere 36,000 square kilometers of land area must support 23 million inhabitants. Two-thirds of the land area is mountainous. Only one-third is flatland suitable for agriculture or urban habitation. Natural resources are scarce. Following World War II, poor farming communities created an economic miracle. During the 1980s, Taiwan became a model for economic development. The main factors were an industrious people and liberal government economic policies.

Liberal economic policies are the opposite of closed door "self-sufficiency” policies adopted by nations such as the Philippines. President Ferdinand Marcos of the Philippines considered the Philippines economy “big enough.” He imagined that with proper development, self-sufficiency would not be a problem. Therefore he implemented protectionism, fostered domestic industries, forbade the entrance of foreign companies, and refused to develop export industries. By contrast, those of us on Taiwan seized the opportunity to participate in the international market. Our exports earned foreign exchange in the international arena. This led to economic development. Taiwan's industries thrived and our economy grew. Protected industries in the Philippines on the other hand, became perennial losers. By the year 2000, Taiwan was well ahead of the Philippines.

The problems encountered in the past few years on Taiwan, are of course not the same as those encountered by the Philippines back then. But the results have been the same. Beginning in 2000, Taiwan fell victim to internal friction.

Governments the world over valued the Mainland market. Taiwan was closest to it. But heavy government restrictions neutered our industries by prohibiting normal dealings with the Mainland. The government at that time opposed direct links, opposed Mainland tourists coming to Taiwan, opposed Taiwan banks opening branches on the Mainland, opposed raising the ceiling on Mainland investments any highter than 40%. This prevented cross-Strait exchanges. Only the electronics industry survived. Almost all other sectors were devastated. Only when Ma Ying-jeou took office was Taiwan's cross-Strait policy finally turned around. Only then was a financial cooperation memorandum of understanding (MOU) signed with the Mainland authorities. Only then was the cross-Strait economic cooperation agreement (ECFA) signed. Only then was the early harvest list advanced. But opposition green camp obstruction mired the subsequent STA in the legislature and prevented passage. Substantial agreement on the MTA had already been reached, but nonetheless it could not be introduced.

PRC-ROK FTA negotiations have been completed. South Korea FTAs now cover 62.66% of the globe. Exports from Taiwan and South Korea overlap by nearly 70%. Substitute products are easy to find. Once the PRC-ROK FTA goes into force, Korean exports to the Mainland will enjoy large tariff cuts and sharply enhanced competitiveness. By then our exports to the Mainland will be severely affected. The PRC-ROK FTA was a one step process. In addition to trade in merchandise, it also includes trade in services. These services include finance, computers, and communications. Domestic demand on the Mainland is growing rapidly, driving service sector growth. The STA was a golden opportunity for Taiwan. Now that opportunity may be ceded to Korea. The impact of the PRC-ROK FTA will not be limited to the short term. It will disrupt Taiwan companies’ strategic plans. Customs duties and lost opportunities will force Taiwan companies to set up factories on Mainland China or elsewhere. The effects of industry uprooting will be long-term.

The world marches on. The Mainland authorities will not wait for Taiwan to come around. On the 17th, the Mainland authorities announced the completion of substantive negotiations over an FTA with Australian authorities. Once the PRC-Australia FTA goes into force, all Mainland products will be tariff free, and 95% of Australian products will be tariff free. Australia can then use the STA portion of the bilateral FTA to gain access to Mainland service sector opportunities. Australian universities can recruit students on Mainland China. More Australian hotels can enter the Mainland market. Australian health and aged care providers can enter the Mainland market. The PRC-Australia FTA will have an impact on our service sector. Taiwan companies on Mainland China will face increased competition. Taiwan's economic problems are interlinked. Income distribution, wage stagnation, high prices, an aging population, an unclear industrial policy, all need to be resolved. We on Taiwan can no longer afford to delay. We must reverse the status quo. We must break through these transitional difficulties. The key is voters motivated primarily by economic considerations.

Late last month, global competitiveness guru Michael Porter came to Taiwan to take its competitiveness pulse. He noted our salary stagnation, an indicator of stalled industrial competitiveness. He suggested that Taiwan and the Mainland form a joint industrial settlement to spur growth and international competitiveness in specific areas. More importantly, he urged us not to allow political troubles to retard economic growth on Taiwan.

The nine in one elections are not just local elections. They are a choice between two paths. Voters motivated primarily by economic factors must set the agenda, and help everyone make the right choice during the elections.

社論－九合一不只是地方首長選舉
2014年11月20日 04:10
本報訊

太陽花運動後，綠營清楚走向反兩岸經濟整合、反自由貿易、反商路線，已與國民黨形成涇渭分明的兩條路線競爭，可以說，九合一選舉是台灣兩條路線的一次選擇的選舉，攸關台灣未來的經濟發展。思考台灣經濟輝煌的過去與現今的困頓，面對中國經濟崛起及區域整合的壓力，理性的經濟選民應該有所作為。

台灣是小型開放經濟體。只有36000平方公里，要養活2300萬居民。土地三分之二是山地，只有三分之一是可以耕作的平原，或作為居住的都市，沒有太多的天然資源。過去從二次世界大戰之後，貧困的農業社會，能夠有成長奇蹟，成為1980年代經濟發展的模範生，主要憑藉的是台灣人民的努力與政府採用自由開放經濟政策。

自由開放的經濟政策，對比是自給自足的封閉政策，當時採用的對比國家是菲律賓。因為當時菲律賓總統馬可仕認為菲律賓是夠大的經濟體，可以有好的發展，自給自足沒有問題。因此採用保護主義，扶植自己國內幼稚工業，不允許外國的競爭廠商進入，也不發展出口產業。相對的，台灣抓住國際市場的機會，出口產品在國際舞台賺取外匯，發展經濟。結果台灣的產業成長茁壯，經濟走出去，菲律賓的產業在保護主義下成了扶不起的阿斗。2000年前台灣遙遙領先菲律賓。

這幾年台灣遇到的問題，比起當年的菲律賓，當然不一樣，但效果卻差不多。從2000年後，台灣就一直在內耗。世界各國紛紛看重大陸市場，台灣離她最近，卻在重重的限制下，自廢武功，不與大陸正常的往來。當時台灣的政府反對三通直航、反對陸客來台、反對銀行登陸、反對提高投資大陸淨值40%上限等，造成兩岸不通，只能靠迂迴轉進的電子業撐場面，幾乎百市蕭條，直到馬英九上台才扭轉台灣的兩岸政策，才與大陸簽訂金融合作的備忘錄（MOU），兩岸才簽訂經濟合作協議（ECFA），進行早收清單的推動。但是因為在野黨的杯葛，後續的《服貿協議》，簽訂了也卡在立法院，遲遲不能通過；貨貿協議談得差不多，也不能端上檯面。

中韓已完成FTA談判，南韓FTA全球的覆蓋率將達到62.66%。台、韓的出口商品，有7成以上是相同的，商品的替代性極高。一旦中韓FTA生效，韓國輸中商品將因關稅調降而大幅提升競爭力，屆時我國部分輸銷中國產品恐將受到嚴重衝擊。另外由於中韓FTA是一步到位，除貨品貿易，還包括服務業，例如金融、電腦、通信等。當前大陸內需快速增長，同時帶動服務業成長，兩岸的《服貿協議》，本來給台灣帶來巨大的機會，現在可能拱手讓給韓國人。而且中韓FTA不只是短期間的影響，還有打亂台商布局，及台商因為關稅及機會流失而到大陸或其他地方設廠，產業被連根拔起的長期性影響。

世界在進步，大陸不會等台灣。大陸17日宣布與澳洲完成FTA實質談判。中澳FTA生效後，最終大陸所有輸澳產品都可降到零關稅，澳洲也將有95%產品降至零關稅。而澳洲可利用雙方FTA服貿部分獲得進入大陸服務業市場的先機，包括澳洲的大學可以直接在大陸開拓生源，更多澳洲酒店可以進入大陸，並進入大陸醫療衛生與老年人護理行業。中澳FTA將會對我服務業產生衝擊，讓台灣業者在大陸將面臨更大競爭。台灣經濟問題環環相扣。所得分配、薪資停滯、高房價、人口老化、產業政策不明，都急需解決。台灣已經沒有時間再等了。要反轉台灣現狀，要突破現階段困境，經濟選民是關鍵。

上個月底，全球競爭力大師麥可．波特來台為台灣競爭力把脈，除了點出薪資停滯，代表產業競爭力沒有提升的關鍵，亦建議台灣應透過與大陸共同形成一個產業聚落，壯大特定領域的產業國際競爭力，更重要的是，不要讓政治紛擾，延緩台灣經濟成長。

九合一選舉，不只是地方選舉，而是兩條路線選擇的一次選舉。經濟選民應該引領風潮，引領大家在選舉中做出最好的選擇。