Yanqi Lake Tempest: Economic Coopetition vs. Political Confrontation

Yanqi Lake Tempest: Economic Coopetition vs. Political Confrontation
United Daily News editorial (Taipei, Taiwan, ROC)
A Translation
November 21, 2014

Executive Summary: Taipei must improve economic coopetition with Mainland China. Taipei must "connect with the rest of the world through Mainland China." It must join the TPP, RCEP, FTAAP and other regional economic organizations, in order to soften and limit cross-Strait political confrontation. This is the only viable strategy for Taiwan’s survival. Otherwise, once economic coopetition between Taiwan and Mainland China changes, political confrontation will increase. This will make it even less possible for Taiwan to participate and respond to globalization. If Taiwan is marginalized in the international market place, it will have even more to lose in the international political arena.

Full Text Below:

Two developments unfolded at this years Yanqi Lake APEC meeting. One was political confrontation. The other was economic coopetition. When the meeting adjourned and the curtain rang down, economic coopetition overshadowed political confrontation.

During the Cold War, economic sanctions and military containment were two sides of the same coin. The two camps lacked any framework for mutually beneficial coopetition. This intensified military confrontation. Whoever wielded more nuclear warheads had the upper hand. This became the Conventional Wisdom. But the drama that unfolded at Yanqi main showed that under globalization, regional dominance requires more than warships, armaments, nuclear warheads, or collective self-defense. It requires participation in the regional economy. Whoever dominates economic coopetition, will also dominate political confrontation. “It’s the economy, stupid!” This was APEC’s answer to questions about political confrontation in the Asia-Pacific region.

The annual Yanqi meeting is usually characterized by behind the scenes political confrontation. Japan and South Korea nurse historical grudges. The Sino-Japanese dispute over the Diaoyutai Islands is particularly bitter. Add to this the United States' saber-rattling “return to Asia and " rebalancing" strategy, which makes the Asia-Pacific situation even more upsetting. Nevertheless the Abe government and Beijing reached "different interpretations" of the "four-point consensus." Abe has at least acknowledged that recent tensions in Diaoyutai Island waters are the result of different ideas about its sovereignty. The main reason was the Japanese economy cannot do without China. Xi Jinping and Park Geun-hye also announced the imminent signing of the PRC-ROK FTA. This helped the Mainland and South Korea consolidate their opposition to Japan. This showed that economic coopetition trumps even political confrontation.

The primary focus of the Yanqi Lake meeting was the new Beijing-Washington “Great Game.” Beijing’s home court strategy was to use economic coopetition to trump political confrontation. Xi Jinping held all the trump cards. He laid they all out at the APEC annual meeting. He established his "one zone, one road." He established his 40 billion US "Silk Road Fund," also known as the "Chinese version of the Marshall Plan." He promoted the FTAAP, and announced a "Beijing road map." The name of course has a double meaning. It means a "road map drawn up in Beijing." But it also means a "road map drawn up by Beijing.” It advocates Asian integration as opposed to fragmentation. He announced the signing of PRC-ROK FTA. He announced the Hong Kong-Shanghai Stock Exchange Link. He reached an ITA (Information Technology Agreement) tax cut agreement with the United States. He donated another 10 million US to ECFA. Beijing's ambition appears to be to go from being the world's factory, to being the world’s market, to being the world’s engine. Today it is nothing less than the world’s money-lender. In fact, Beijing has long dominated the 100 billion US Asian Investment Bank. Such is the Mainland China the US must face. When the US considers the situation in the East China Sea and returning to East Asia, the first thing it must face is economic coopetition, how to avoid losing its bargaining chips during political confrontation.

The US-led TPP is an attempt to manipulate economic coopetition and political confrontation. But Mainland China expressed willingness to join the TPP and RCEP. It is using “one zone, one road, the FTAAP, and other FTAs to break America's "TPP containment." Mainland China's one-party dictatorship enjoys an authoritarian advantage not shared by democratic governments when competing for FTAs. Industrial transformation requires nothing more than an order from the CCP, and the bird in the cage gets replaced Mainland China's handling of "vulnerable industries" does not lead to democratic street protests during FTA negotiations. The Mainland China-led Asian Investment Bank and the Silk Road Fund are unlike Cold War radar stations and missile bases in other countries. Mainland China refers to them as "excess capacity." This results in the construction of roads, power plants, and other kinds of infrastructure. According to Li Keqiang, for Mainland China economic development and political security are two wheels that turn in unison during international political and economic jockeying. No wonder when Obama was in Beijing, he said that the United States has no intention of containing the rise of China, because that is not in the US interest. What he really meant was that economic coopetition is even more difficult than political confrontation.

Economic coopetition and political confrontation between Taiwan and Mainland China is even more difficult. Therefore globalization and cross-Strait relations must be viewed even more seriously. Mainland China has declared its intention to dominate the regional economy. It may already have sufficient strength. In other words, if Taipei wants to connect with the rest of the world, it cannot bypass  Beijing. Washington can’t. Tokyo can’t. Seoul can’t. Does Taipei really think it can achieve "globalization without Mainland China?"

Taipei must improve economic coopetition with Mainland China. Taipei must "connect with the rest of the world through Mainland China." It must join the TPP, RCEP, FTAAP and other regional economic organizations, in order to soften and limit cross-Strait political confrontation. This is the only viable strategy for Taiwan’s survival. Otherwise, once economic coopetition between Taiwan and Mainland China changes, political confrontation will increase. This will make it even less possible for Taiwan to participate and respond to globalization. If Taiwan is marginalized in the international market place, it will have even more to lose in the international political arena.

雁棲湖風雲：經濟競合與政治交鋒
【聯合報╱社論】
2014.11.21 02:13 am

此次雁棲湖ＡＰＥＣ年會，有兩條發展軸線。一條是政治交鋒，一條是經濟競合。年會閉幕，大體呈現了經濟競合超越了政治交鋒的態勢。

冷戰時代，經濟封鎖與軍事圍堵是一體兩面。由於相對陣營沒有在經濟競合上互利共贏的體制，因而軍事對峙愈演愈烈，認為誰掌握了較多的核子彈頭就能掌握較大的優勢，此亦成為當年世界思潮的顯學。然而，雁棲湖的主戲卻顯示，在全球化下，欲爭奪區域情勢的主導權，絕不僅在船堅砲利或擁有多少核子彈頭或解禁集體自衛權，而在爭取區域經濟競合的參與權與主導權。誰能掌握經濟競合的主導地位，也就能擁有了較多的政治交鋒破解能力。笨蛋，問題在經濟！這是雁棲湖年會給陷於政治交鋒中的亞太地區的答案。

政治交鋒原是雁棲湖年會的顯著背景。主軸是中日與日韓的新仇舊怨，尤其是中日間的釣魚島爭議，再加上美國「重返亞洲」的「再平衡」戰略行動，均有劍拔弩張之勢，甚至使亞太情勢陷於嚴重不安。但是，安倍政府與北京達成了「各自表述」的「四點共識」，至少承認了「對釣島海域近年出現的緊張局勢存在不同主張」，主因即在日本經濟不能沒有中國元素的給養；而習近平與朴槿惠又共同宣布中韓ＦＴＡ簽約在即，藉以鞏固中韓共同對日之立場，此均顯示經濟競合影響了甚至凌越了政治交鋒。

雁棲湖更大的焦點是在中美兩「新型大國」的對手戲。北京的主場戰略，正是以經濟競合影響並凌越政治交鋒。習近平把手中積存的所有響亮鞭炮，在此次ＡＰＥＣ年會一次燃放：打造「一帶一路」，成立四百億美元「絲路基金」，又稱「中國版馬歇爾計劃」；再推倡亞太自貿區（ＦＴＡＡＰ），宣示「北京路線圖」，此中含有「在北京達成的路線圖」與「北京主導的路線圖」的雙義，主張亞太應當「一體化」，勿「碎片化」；並宣布簽訂中韓ＦＴＡ、宣布滬港通、又與美國達成ＩＴＡ（資訊科技協定）減稅等共識、再捐款一千萬美元給ＥＣＦＡ……。北京的姿態儼然是：從世界工廠，轉至世界市場、世界引擎，如今不啻又以世界金主的地位現身，事實上，北京稍早已主導成立一千億美元的亞洲基礎建設投資銀行（亞投行）。美國面對這樣的中國，在考慮東海情勢及重返亞洲時，首先必須面對的是在經濟競合上如何避免自己被削弱了在政治交鋒上的籌碼。

美國主導的ＴＰＰ，即是欲以經濟競合來操作政治交鋒。但中國則回應願意參加ＴＰＰ，並用ＲＣＥＰ、一帶一路、ＦＴＡＡＰ及其他ＦＴＡ來突破美國的「ＴＰＰ圍堵」。亦可注意的是，中國的一黨專政，在參與ＦＴＡ競合上，具有民主國家所缺少的「專制紅利」。因為，只要中共一句「騰籠換鳥」，產業轉型即可發動，而中國的「弱勢產業」在ＦＴＡ談判中也不會成為街頭的民主議題。再者，中國主導的亞投行及絲路基金，不像冷戰時代將雷達站及飛彈基地搬到他國，而是以中國自稱的「過剩產能」在他國從事道路、電廠等基礎建設。面對中國此種「使經濟發展與政治安全兩個輪子一起轉」（李克強語）的國際政經操作，難怪歐巴馬會在北京說：「美方沒有圍堵中國崛起的意圖，因為不符合美方的利益。」此話的真意，應是指經濟競合比政治交鋒更難纏。

台灣與中國大陸的「經濟競合／政治交鋒」糾纏更甚，因此必須更認真看待所面對的全球化議題與兩岸關係。中國大陸已經宣示其主導區域經濟競合的意圖，並可能已經具備操作的實力。也就是說，台灣若要「走進世界」，絕無可能繞過北京。美國繞不過，日本繞不過，韓國繞不過，難道唯有台灣能實現「沒有中國的全球化」？

因而，與中國大陸改善「經濟競合」關係，並進而「由中國走向世界」，加入ＴＰＰ、ＲＣＥＰ、ＦＴＡＡＰ等區域經濟組織，以軟化、節制兩岸的「政治交鋒」，實為台灣唯一可行的生存戰略選擇。否則，一旦台灣與中國大陸的「經濟競合」生變，而「政治交鋒」惡化，必將使台灣更無可能參與並因應全球化的博弈。萬一台灣在國際經濟上邊緣化至此，則在國際政治上也就會更加失去憑靠。