Ma Ying-jeou: Another Obama?

Ma Ying-jeou: Another Obama?
China Times Editorial (Taipei, Taiwan, ROC) A Translation
November 6, 2014 

Executive Summary: Many people think that the nine in one elections are merely local elections, unrelated to the central government. That is not the case. The most important factor in local government leader elections is how voters feel about individual candidates. This however, is followed by the political climate and public sentiment toward overall national policy. It is easy for voters to feel an imaginary sense of security, and to conclude that local elections have nothing to do with larger national policy. In fact, the election results will have a high degree of influence on political dynamics and public approval. They will affect the nation's overall policy direction, including the direction of cross-Strait policy.

Full Text Below:

The Democratic Party has been thoroughly thrashed in the midterm elections in the US. The Republicans now control a majority in both the Senate and House of Representatives. They have also made enormous gains in the gubernatorial races, especially in Obama's home state of Illinois. Former Democratic President Bill Clinton's hometown also went Republican. Even the traditionally liberal Maryland Governorship went Republican for the very first time in history.

The Democratic Party debacle was no surprise. Observers were not optimistic about the Democratic Party's prospects in the midterm elections. In an interview just before the election, even Obama acknowledged this. The Democratic Party now faces its biggest challenge in 50 years. The election  results have merely confirmed widespread predictions.

The midterm elections in the US may have taken place on other side of the Pacific. But the public on Taiwan has a sense of deja vu. They almost foretell the results of the upcoming November nine in one elections on Taiwan. Given the KMT's dismal election prospects, the results of the midterm elections in the US should set off alarm bells for President Ma Ying-jeou and the KMT. The situation on Taiwan bears a number of remarkable similarities to the situation in the United States. Nevertheless, they are not identical. The public on Taiwan must be clear about that. They must avoid conclusions that lead to erroneous actions.

The Democratic Party defeat will impact America's political scene on two levels. One. Political forces have ebbed and flowed. The political map has been redrawn. This will affect the 2016 US presidential election.The Democrats' defeat in the midterm elections, leaves the Democrats in a highly disadvantageous situation for the 2016 presidential election.

This is also true on Taiwan. The nine in one election results will have a direct impact on the 2016 presidential election. If the KMT is defeated in the nine in one elections, its prospects in the 2016 presidential election will be in jeopardy. It will greatly increase the chance of a change in ruling parties. Conversely, if under such adverse circumstances, the KMT manages to hold the line, or suffers only a minor setback, the leadership of the DPP and likely DPP presidential candidate Tsai Ing-wen, will find themselves under fire from within their own party. She will be asked why given such advantages, the results were so poor. Tsai Ing-wen's current status as the unchallenged leader of the DPP will come into question, and significant changes will follow.

Two. The Democrats' midterm election defeat was essentially a repudiation of Obama. This repudiation has two components. One. It is a repudiation of the past. Voters are dissatisfied with the policies promoted by the Democrats. They used the mid-term elections to express their dissatisfaction. Two. Obama lost both the House and the Senate. Over the next two years he will have a hard time promoting any of his policies. Republicans are in full control of both houses of Congress, and better able to block major legislation.

This observation can be applied to the year end nine in one elections on Taiwan.
Based on past experience, the KMT faces an even more perilous situation than the Democrats during the mid-term US elections. Obama's policies provoked a powerful backlash that undermined his reputation. Yet his approval ratings held at 40%. President Ma Ying-jeou's approval ratings may have risen slightly. But they remain stuck at the 20% level. Therefore the political climate the KMT faces on Taiwan is even less favorable than what the Democrats faced in the US. The US midterm elections were a repudiation of Obama. The repudiation of Obama's policies turned into a repudiation of the the Democratic Party during the midterm elections. If this scenario replicates itself on Taiwan, it will influence the outcome of the elections.

The US and Taiwan differ to some extent. The US midterm elections, including the congressional elections, may determine or influence national policy. The elections on Taiwan are elections for local government leaders and representatives. Even if the Kuomintang is defeated during the nine in one elections, it will remain the majority party in the legislature. Of course, this is only a technical distinction. A major defeat in the nine in one elections would influence public opinion and exert psychological pressure on the legislature. The majority KMT has long been mocked as a “majority party of chickens.“ A defeat in the nine in one elections would make the chickens even more chicken. President Ma may retain majority party status in the legislature. But that does not mean he will fare any better than the Democratic Party in the United States Congress.

In other words, ff the KMT loses the nine in one elections, President Ma's overall policy will be doubly repudiated. The most critical component of this overall policy is cross-Strait policy.

Many people think that the nine in one elections are merely local elections, unrelated to the central government. That is not the case. The most important factor in local government leader elections is how voters feel about individual candidates. This however, is followed by the political climate and public sentiment toward overall national policy. It is easy for voters to feel an imaginary sense of security, and to conclude that local elections have nothing to do with larger national policy. In fact, the election results will have a high degree of influence on political dynamics and public approval. They will affect the nation's overall policy direction, including the direction of cross-Strait policy.

Therefore the ballots cast during the nine in one elections, will not be ballots cast merely for individual candidates. They will also be ballots cast for national policy over the coming years. Some voters may feel apathy. Others may feel distaste. But voters may want to think hard about the potential consequences.

社論－馬英九會變成歐巴馬嗎
2014年11月06日 04:09
本報訊

美國民主黨在期中選舉全面挫敗，共和黨不但掌握參議院與眾議院二院的多數，州長選戰也大有斬獲，尤其在歐巴馬的家鄉伊利諾州、民主黨籍前總統柯林頓的家鄉阿肯色州皆輸，連傳統自由派地盤的馬里蘭州州長席位，也首度被共和黨奪下。

民主黨的大敗並不讓人意外，外界普遍不看好民主黨在期中選舉的表現，歐巴馬投票前接受媒體訪問時也承認，民主黨面臨50年來最大困局，最後投票結果只是印證了一般的預測。

特別的是，美國的期中選舉雖然在太平洋的另一頭，看在台灣人民的眼中，卻有一種熟悉感，似乎預言了台灣11月即將舉行的九合一選舉。對馬英九總統及國民黨來說，看到美國期中選舉的結果，再看看自己低迷的選情，應該更有一番警惕與戒懼。不過，我們要指出，台灣與美國當前的政治情勢，固然有若干相似之處，但也不盡相同，國人應該慎思明辨，以避免錯誤的解讀與判斷，導致錯誤的行動與結果。

首先，民主黨的挫敗，對美國政局會帶來兩個層面的影響，其一，政治版圖的重構與政治勢力的消長將連動2016年美國總統大選，民主黨在期中選舉大敗，將讓民主黨在2016年總統選舉中，陷入極端不利的處境。

這一點台灣也是如此，九合一大選的結果將直接連動2016年總統大選的勢力消長。如果國民黨在九合一選舉大敗，則2016年的總統大選將岌岌可危，政黨再輪替的機率大增。相反的，如果在大格局不利的情況下，國民黨守了一個平手或小輸的格局，則領導民進黨、目前被視為民進黨最有可能的總統候選人蔡英文，恐將得承受內部的檢討海嘯，質疑她為何「情勢大好，結果卻不能大好？」那麼目前蔡英文幾乎被視為民進黨共主的地位還能不能繼續保有，就會出現重大變數。

其二，民主黨在期中選舉大敗，等於是否定歐巴馬推動的政策。這種否定是雙重的，一是對過去的否定，亦即選民透過期中選舉表達對民主黨推動政策的不滿意；二是，失去參眾兩院的歐巴馬，未來兩年的政策推動將雪上加霜，全面掌控國會兩院的共和黨，將更有能力封殺重大法案。

而這一點觀察也可以延展到對台灣月底九合一選舉的分析。從過去否定層面來看，國民黨的情勢比美國民主黨在期中選舉面對的處境還險惡。歐巴馬雖然政策招引反彈，聲望受挫，但民調的滿意度尚維持在4成；然而馬英九總統的民調近來雖略有回升，但也只在約兩成的水位，由此以觀，國民黨面對的台灣氛圍，比民主黨面對的美國氛圍更為低迷。在美國期中選舉出現的否定連動，即對歐巴馬政策的否定變成對民主黨期中選舉的否定，會不會在台灣被複製，將成為影響選舉結果的一個指標。

從否定的層面來看，美國和台灣的情況則略有不同。美國的期中選舉包括了可以決定或影響國家政策法案的國會選舉，台灣則是地方首長與民代的選舉，即便國民黨在九合一戰敗，國民黨仍然是國會的多數黨。當然，這只是形式上的意義。因為，一旦九合一戰敗，民意的流向會成為國會的心理壓力，國民黨過去的多數黨已經被取笑為弱雞式的多數，九合一敗選，弱雞只會更怯懦，馬總統處境不會因為還保有國會多數而比美國民主黨的處境好上多少。

換言之，國民黨一旦輸掉九合一選舉，將意謂對馬總統總體政策從過去到未來的雙重否定，這總體政策中最關鍵的就是兩岸政策。

許多人認為，九合一只是地方選舉，無關中央大政，這樣的說法並不精確，從選舉實務來說，地方首長的選舉，選民對候選人的個別喜好因素是最重要的，其次才是社會的氛圍與對國家總體政策的態度。選民確實容易產生一種「想像的安全感」，認為這只是地方選舉，與國家發展總路線無關。但實際上，選舉結果所導引的政治消長與民氣連動，在極高的程度內，將牽動未來國家總體政策，包括兩岸政策的發展方向。

也因此，月底大家領的、大家投的九合一選票，不只是對人的選票，同時將按下接下來數年國家發展方向的總按鈕。對前者，或者有人會選擇冷漠，因為都不喜歡；但對後者，選民可能要思之再三。