Siew Xi Meeting Will Help Taiwan Turnaround

Siew Xi Meeting Will Help Taiwan Turnaround
China Times Editorial (Taipei, Taiwan, ROC)
A Translation
November 11, 2014

Executive Summary: Yesterday Beijing and Seoul held a summit meeting. They announced the completion of substantive negotiations on a PRC-ROK FTA agreement, to be signed within days. The PRC-ROK FTA will have a huge impact on Taiwan's economy. Time is not on our side. We must create a new and upgraded framework for cross-strait economic cooperation. We cannot delay, even for a minute. Taipei must immediately take action to catch up. Mainland President Xi Jinping should uphold his "The two sides of the Strait are a single family” concept. He should work with Vincent Siew to promote the new framework.

Full Text Below:

The widely anticipated Siew Xi meeting was held in Beijing on the afternoon of the 9th. Former Vice President Vincent Siew met with Mainland President Xi Jinping on behalf of President Ma Ying-jeou, and set forth “three reaffirmations.” He hoped to upgrade cross-Strait economic relations. Xi Jinping offered his own mantra: "Maintain confidence, increase mutual trust, mutual respect, and positive interaction." Cross-strait relations over the past six years have remained at low ebb. The Siew Xi meeting may be able to reestablish cross-Strait mutual trust, repair damaged cross-strait relations, restart economic restructuring, and reaffirm our desire for a new arrangement. PRC-ROK FTA negotiations have just been concluded. The Siew Xi meeting is expected to create opportunities for Taiwan's economic rejuvenation. For this, it deserves recognition.

Consider cross-strait interaction. Cross-strait relations have recently taken numerous twists and turns. The two sides are now determined to consider the Big Picture. Vincent Siew wants to ensure peaceful development. He wants to reaffirm the "1992 consensus" as the foundation for cross-Strait interaction, formal negotiations, and cross-Strait economic cooperation. Hence, his “three reaffirmations.” These three affirmations show the Ma government’s determination to promote the path of peaceful development it has over the past six years. The "1992 consensus" institutionalized cross-Strait economic and political cooperation. The core of this policy is ECFA. Xi Jinping noted that cross-Strait relations have encountered difficulties and resistance. These were unavoidable. But they merely mean that we need increased exchanges and mutual trust, and respect for each others’ systems. He affirmed the two sides’ adherence to the "1992 consensus," the establishment of a common political foundation for opposing Taiwan independence and enhanced mutual trust, as the key to the cross-strait relations and maintaining the peace.

The Siew and Xi exchange helped untie cross-Strait knots. It reaffirmed and consolidated the "1992 consensus." It left both sides room for different interpretations. It enabled cross-Strait relations to remain unaffected by recent ups and downs. Meanwhile, to overcome cross-Strait economic stagnation, Vincent Siew proposed a new upgraded framework for cross-Strait economic relations. This framework is highly innovative and pragmatic, and offers concrete proposals for the solution of problems. The two sides should explore this proposed framework. They should study it, then implement it.

Current cross-strait economic cooperation is based primarily on the cross-Strait framework formulated by Ma in 2008, when the Ma government took office during the financial crisis. It was built on a foundation of cross-Strait economic complementarity and reciprocity. But in recent years, dramatic changes have taken place in the global economy. Cross-Strait economic relations have undergone structural changes. The original economic cooperation framework is inadequate for the new cross-Strait situation. This can be viewed from several angles. First of all, Mainland economic development has entered a new phase. It has gone from high-speed growth to medium-speed growth. Therefore it must change its economic growth mode. It must turn its attention to domestic demand and the equitable distribution of wealth, and away from reliance on exports. Industrial development must shift away from demand-driven and investment-driven to innovation-driven. This is Xi Jinping's often stressed “new normal." The Mainland economy has entered a "new normal" phase. This has changed the pattern of cross-strait trade. A complementary relationship has rapidly changed to a competitive relationship. As a result the public on Taiwan has become increasingly concerned about a potential Mainland threat to Taiwan's economy.

Secondly, accelerating regional economic integration is rapidly rewriting the global economic map. This includes the US-led "Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement" (TPP) and the Mainland-led "Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement" (RCEP), and FTAAP (FTAAP) promoted at this year's annual meeting of APEC. Taiwan cannot participate in TPP and RCEP negotiations because of political factors. It is in danger of economic marginalization. This has substantially increased the difficulty of ECFA follow-up negotiations.

Cross-Strait economic cooperation tends to favor consortia and large enterprises. Most SMEs, young people, and ordinary citizens receive few benefits. They may even become victims of market openings and distortions in the distribution of benefits. As a result, public support for cross-Strait economic cooperation is far lower than government expectations. Cross-Strait economic and trade relations should bring substantial benefits to people's lives. Only that would qualify as a true cross-strait peace dividend. We must create a new, upgraded framework for cross-strait economic cooperation. We must expand the peace dividend, and correct the imbalance in trade and economic interests. This is a matter of the utmost urgency.

Vincent Siew noted the need direction for a tripartite, upgraded version of cross-Strait economic relations. One. We must establish a new mechanism for joint participation in regional integration. The two sides should support each other in participating in in TPP, RCEP and FTAAP. The new mechanism should inspire public confidence in cross-strait trade liberalization. Two. We must establish a new model for cross-Strait economic cooperation. We must acceleration MTA negotiations. Three. We must establish a people-centered new platform for cross-strait exchanges. We must allow SMEs, young people, and ordinary citizens to fully share the fruits of exchanges and cooperation. These three strike at the core of current cross-Strait economic issues. They reinforce each other. The two sides should form research teams consisting of government officials and scholars. They should develop specific, in depth programs. Then, through existing institutionalized consultation and cooperation mechanisms, they should promote and implement them.

Yesterday Beijing and Seoul held a summit meeting. They announced the completion of substantive negotiations on a PRC-ROK FTA agreement, to be signed within days. The PRC-ROK FTA will have a huge impact on Taiwan's economy. Time is not on our side. We must create a new and upgraded framework for cross-strait economic cooperation. We cannot delay, even for a minute. Taipei must immediately take action to catch up. Mainland President Xi Jinping should uphold his "The two sides of the Strait are a single family” concept. He should work with Vincent Siew to promote the new framework.

社論－蕭習會為台灣經濟脫困布局
2014年11月11日 04:10
本報訊

眾所囑目的APEC「蕭習會」已於9日下午在北京舉行。前副總統蕭萬長代表馬英九總統向大陸國家主席習近平提出三個堅持不變，並期許打造升級版兩岸經濟關係新架構。習近平亦提出「堅定信心、增進互信、相互尊重、良性互動」16字箴言。在兩岸關係陷於6年來罕見低潮之際，這次「蕭習會」在政治面產生了重建兩岸互信、修補兩岸關係的正向作用；經濟面則展現出重整步伐、再造新局的企圖心，在中韓完成FTA談判之際，「蕭習會」的成果可望為台灣經濟再造創造機會，值得肯定。

從兩岸互動來看，面對近來兩岸關係的波折不斷，雙方皆展現了顧全兩岸大局的意志和決心。蕭萬長提出維護和平發展大局目標、鞏固「九二共識」作為兩岸互動協商重要基礎及推進兩岸制度化經濟合作方向等三個堅持不變，充分表達馬政府堅持繼續推動6年來和平發展路線、「九二共識」政治基礎及以ECFA為核心的兩岸制度化經濟合作政策。習近平則指出，兩岸關係遇到一些困難和阻力在所難免，愈是如此愈要交流與增進互信，並尊重彼此制度的不同；他並強調，兩岸雙方在堅持「九二共識」、反對台獨的共同政治基礎上建立並持續增進互信，是維繫兩岸和平發展關係的關鍵。

蕭習這一番對話，有助化解兩岸心結，也重新確認並鞏固了「九二共識」，並為雙方留下對內部各自表述的空間，讓繼續推進兩岸關係的基礎不受近來風風雨雨影響而有所動搖。另一方面，為突破當前兩岸經濟停滯不前的困境，蕭萬長提出打造升級版兩岸經濟關係新架構之議，可說是極富新意且務實面對問題的具體建議，雙方應進一步積極探討，並研商落實推動之道。

現行兩岸經濟合作主要是2008年馬政府上任後到兩岸共抗金融海嘯期間所形成的架構，也是建立在兩岸經濟互補互惠的基本格局上，但近年全球經濟劇烈變動，兩岸經濟關係也出現結構性變化，原有經濟合作架構已不足以因應兩岸新情勢，這可從幾個層面來分析：首先，大陸經濟發展進入全面轉型階段，從高速增長轉為中速增長，因而必須改變經濟增長方式，從依賴出口及投資轉向重視內需及所得公平分配；產業發展也從要素及投資驅動轉向創新驅動；這也是習近平近來一再強調的「新常態」。大陸經濟進入「新常態」，也改變了兩岸經貿格局，導致過去互補關係快速轉變為競爭關係，讓台灣社會愈來愈擔憂大陸經濟對台灣與日俱增的威脅。

其次，近年區域經濟加速整合正快速改寫全球經濟版圖，美國主導「跨太平洋夥伴協定」（TPP）建置及協商，大陸主導「區域全面經濟夥伴協定」（RCEP），並在今年APEC年會力推亞太自由貿易區（FTAAP）願景及路線圖，但台灣因政治因素而無法參加TPP、RCEP談判，致有陷入經濟邊緣化危機之虞，而且大幅增加ECFA後續談判阻力。

再者，兩岸經濟合作利益傾向財團及大型企業，多數中小企業、年輕人及基層民眾無法普遍感受到實質利益，甚至還成為市場開放的受害者，利益分配的扭曲，造成兩岸經濟合作的民意支持度遠低於政府期待。兩岸經貿關係應為人民生活帶來實質利益，才是兩岸當局一再強調的和平紅利。打造升級版的兩岸經濟新架構，擴大和平紅利，改善經貿利益傾斜及集中問題，實乃刻不容緩。

蕭萬長點出升級版兩岸經濟關係的三大努力方向：一是建構共同參與區域整合新機制，兩岸應相互扶持，共同參與TPP、RCEP及FTAAP，以增強民眾對兩岸經貿自由化信心；二是建構兩岸經濟合作新模式，加速貨貿談判；三是建構以人民為核心的兩岸交流新平台，讓中小企業、青年和基層民眾能夠充分參與，分享交流合作的果實。這三者切中當前兩岸經濟問題核心，且互為因果，可由雙方組成產官學共同參與的研究團隊，深入探討，擬定具體方案，再透過現有制度化協商及合作機制，加以落實推動。

昨日中韓領袖高峰會宣布中韓FTA協議完成實質談判，將於近日內完成簽署。中韓FTA對台灣經濟衝擊影響至深且鉅；時不我與，打造升級版兩岸經濟新架構不容再須臾拖延，台灣應立即付諸行動，急起直追。大陸也應該秉持習近平總書記「兩岸一家親」的理念積極評估，共同推動蕭萬長提出的新架構。