Global Integration Accelerating: Taiwan Must Respond

Global Integration Accelerating: Taiwan Must Respond
China Times Editorial (Taipei, Taiwan, ROC)
A Translation
November 8, 2014

Executive Summary: 2015 is the year for regional economic reorganization. An irresistible force will hit Taiwan. Taiwan's ruling and opposition parties are fighting each other when they should be concerned about the nation's future. Participation in internationalization is Taiwan's only economic option. Sound cross-Strait relations are not a panacea. But without it, nothing is possible. Sound cross-Strait relations are a prerequisite for Taiwan's participation in the international economy. Willful blindness to international power politics, globalization, and the rise of the Chinese mainland, can only lead to Taiwan's marginalization under capitalist competition.

Full Text Below:

Former Vice President Vincent Siew is in Beijing today. He will attend the 2014 APEC meeting on behalf of President Ma. The theme of the meeting is "Shaping the Future through Asia-Pacific Partnership." On the eve of the meeting, Beijing and Tokyo reached a major agreement on bilateral relations. Xi Jinping and Shinzo Abe will formally meet next week. They hope to get Sino-Japanese strategic relations back on track. The Ma Xi meeting was a bust. Cross-Strait relations have been frozen since. Will Vice President Siew be able to meet with Xi Jinping to firm up cross-Strait political and economic relations? Can he ensure Taiwan's participation in Asia-Pacific regional economic integration? These are important questions that will affect our domestic economy.

The Ma Xi meeting was a bust. President Ma Ying-jeou expressed regret during an October 31 interview with the New York Times. President Ma Ying-jeou asked former Vice President Vincent Siew to attend the APEC Economic Leaders' Meeting on his behalf. This was the first time Ma formally responded to questions about the Ma Xi meeting. President Ma Ying-jeou said that the ROC government does not promote a two Chinas, one China, one Taiwan, or Taiwan independence policy. Ma Ying-jeou reaffirmed the 1992 consensus as the foundation of  the cross-Strait relationship. He hoped that the two sides could return to the 1992 consensus and one China, different interpretations foundation, then proceed from there. 

ROC participation in regional economic integration has been stalled as a result of two major problems. Trade negotiations have lagged, and Taiwan has not liberalized its financial sector. One. Trade between the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement (TPP), and the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) with Taiwan amounted to $ 200 billion last year. It accounted for 35% of Taiwan's foreign trade. RCEP trade with Taiwan was as much as $ 325 billion last year. It accounted for 57% of all foreign trade. But Taiwan lags behind in the signing of free trade agreements and overall Asian regional economic integration.
Only 10% of all exports are covered by free trade agreements. As a consequence, ROC exports are rapidly losing market share.

Taiwan's participation in these two major regional economic organizations has been delayed. The main reason for this is that Beijing objects to Taipei's position regarding regional economic activities. The Beijing authorities have made clear to the Taipei authorities that joining regional economic organizations and signing bilateral trade agreements with other countries requires proper communication between the two sides. The Beijing authorities have drawn up a road map for negotiation. The two sides must first complete follow up ECFA negotiations. Only then can Taipei engage in TPP and RCEP negotiations with other governments. In mid-September the ninth round of STA negotiations took place. The two sides' negotiating teams have yet to resume talks. The PRC-ROK FTA is likely to make significant progress during the upcoming APEC annual meeting. It will probably be signed before the end of the year.  The ITRI predicts
that over the next 3-5 years Taiwan's manufacturing output will decline between 1.59 and 3.85 percentage points. The pressure is on for the two sides to sign the STA.

Two. Beijing is actively seeking to replace the USD with the RMB. Britain's Financial Times said Beijing is attempting to lay the groundwork for a Mainland China centered financial system. The prospect of Beijing achieving such an ambitious goal seems remote. But Beijing's strategic goal is clear. Beijing is attempting to establish a RMB regime to compete with the global USD regime established following World War II. Its effort include encouraging the use of the RMB as a reserve currency, trade settlement currency, and securities investment currency. Beijing is also drawing up global development plans and establishing new regional financial institutions. In July of this year, the China-led Brazil, Russia, India and South Africa, "BRICS" organization established a new development bank and emergency reserve fund to compete with the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund. Beijing must ensure transparency in its governance standards and mechanisms. Otherwise it cannot gain the prestige commensurate with its economic capacity.

Beijing is attempting to lead regional trade and financial integration. The ROC government has ignored the impact regional economic integration may have had on our economic security. It has not implemented effective risk management and hedging mechanisms. Worse still, the US will taper QE3. It will withdraw from international capital markets and return to the US market. The RMB will face enormous pressure to devalue. The impact on Mainland economic development next year could be serious. The Ma administration is busy campaigning. It must pay closer attention. The DPP must not think only about winning elections. It must not disregard the marginalization of Taiwan's international economic status and cross-Strait relations. It must not be both blind and unresponsive.

2015 is the year for regional economic reorganization. An irresistible force will hit Taiwan. Taiwan's ruling and opposition parties are fighting each other when they should be concerned about the nation's future. Participation in internationalization is Taiwan's only economic option. Sound cross-Strait relations are not a panacea. But without it, nothing is possible. Sound cross-Strait relations are a prerequisite for Taiwan's participation in the international economy. Willful blindness to international power politics, globalization, and the rise of the Chinese mainland, can only lead to Taiwan's marginalization under capitalist competition.

Ruling and opposition party leaders must choose wisely. They must prevent Taiwan's marginalization under cross-Strait relations and the global economy. We hope Vincent Siew and Xi Jinping will bring us good news.

社論－全球加速整合 台灣怎麼辦？
2014年11月08日 04:09
本報訊

蕭萬長前副總統今天首途北京，代表馬總統參加2014年亞太經合會，這次會議主題是「共建面向未來的亞太夥伴關係」。會議前夕，中日就雙邊關係達成重大協議，習近平與安倍晉三將在下周舉行正式會晤，希望重回中日戰略互惠正軌。兩岸關係自馬習會破局後，陷入凍結狀態。蕭副總統能否利用與習主席會面機會，重新穩定兩岸政治與經貿關係，創造台灣參與亞太區域經濟整合的契機，是能否穩定國內經濟發展大勢的重要議題。

針對馬習會破局，10月31日馬英九總統接受美國《紐約時報》專訪時表示遺憾，這是馬英九總統敦請前副總統蕭萬長代表前往北京參加APEC經濟領袖會議後，首度針對馬習會做出的正式回應。馬英九總統表示，中華民國政府不會推動「兩個中國」、「一中一台」或「台灣獨立」的政策。馬英九重申「九二共識」到目前為止還是兩岸關係當中非常關鍵的基礎，希望兩岸回歸「九二共識、一中各表」的基礎上往前邁進。

我國參與區域經濟整合，正面對貿易談判滯後與金融自由化不足二大巨大板塊的陷落。首先，跨太平洋夥伴協議（TPP）和區域全面經濟夥伴關係（RCEP）與台灣貿易額一年達2000億美元，占台灣對外貿易的35%左右；而RCEP與台灣貿易額一年高達3250億美元，占對外貿易57%。但在整個亞洲簽署自由貿易協議或參與區域經濟整合上，台灣的成績嚴重滯後。目前出口產品被自由貿易協議涵蓋的量只有約10%，其後果表現在我國出口市場占有率的急速萎縮。

檢視台灣在參與此二大區域經濟組織談判滯後，主要關鍵在中國大陸對台參與區域經濟組織活動的政治立場。由於大陸對台部門明確表態，台灣爭取加入各種區域經濟整合與其他國家簽署雙邊經貿協議，需要兩岸進行適當溝通。大陸擘畫出的談判路徑圖，是兩岸須先完成ECFA後續談判，才能與其他國家展開TPP與RCEP談判。審視9月中旬第九輪兩岸貨物貿易談判後，兩岸談判團隊並未再進行會談，由於中韓FTA很可能在此次APEC年會上有重大進展，或是年底前有望簽署，工研院產經中心預估，未來3至5年台灣製造業產值將因而衰退1.59至3.85個百分點，兩岸貨貿談判的時間壓力緊迫。

第二、北京正積極建立人民幣區與美元區抗衡。英國《金融時報》發表社論指出，中國大陸正在努力為建立以中國為中心的金融體系打下基礎。雖然北京實現這項宏偉設計的目標還顯得遙遠，但中國的戰略努力是非常明確的。中國大陸試圖建立一個人民幣區，以平衡二戰以來主導世界金融體系的美元區的影響。這樣的努力涉及鼓勵人民幣當做儲備貨幣，貿易結算貨幣，以及證券投資者的選擇。此外北京正積極對照管理全球發展計畫並建立新的區域金融機構。今年7月中國主導巴西、俄羅斯、印度和南非等「金磚五國」建立新的發展銀行和緊急儲備基金，創造了相對於世界銀行和國際貨幣基金組織的新體系。對於中國大陸來說，如果不能在新機構中保持透明度和管理標準，將無法建立與自己經濟能力相符的聲望。

面對中國大陸主導的區域貿易與金融整合大趨勢，政府卻無視區域經濟整合對我國經濟安全可能造成的巨大衝擊與影響，更未提出有效的風險管控與避險機制。雪上加霜的是，美國QE3退場國際資金重返美國市場之際，人民幣將面臨貶值的巨大壓力，對我國明年經濟發展的衝擊可能更嚴重。馬團隊在打選戰之餘，應密切關注。民進黨更不能只以勝選為念，漠視台灣在國際經濟與兩岸關係權力結構中的邊陲化事實，無所認知與因應。

2015年是區域經濟板塊重組年，將以雷霆萬鈞之勢重創台灣，台灣朝野政黨在內鬥之際，是否也該關注未來國家的命運。參與國際化是台灣經濟唯一的路徑選項，所謂「兩岸不是萬能，沒有兩岸是萬萬不能」，處理好兩岸關係是台灣經濟國際參與的前提條件，任何政黨缺乏國際格局、全球視野及大陸崛起意識，均將導致台灣陷入邊陲資本主義的悲慘命運！成敗如何抉擇，是朝野政黨精英須做出的正確判斷。面對台灣在兩岸關係及全球經濟的邊緣化現象，我們期待蕭萬長與習近平的會談能為帶來正面消息。