Free Trade? Or Evasion and Retreat?

Free Trade? Or Evasion and Retreat?
China Times Editiorial (Taipei, Taiwan, ROC)
A Translation
November 25, 2014

Executive Summary: Voters motivated by economic considerations must seize the opportunity. The Taiwan Region of the ROC has an island-based economy. It must confront economic and financial globalization and the rise of the Mainland. Taiwan has few options. It must connect with the Mainland, then the rest of the world. It must face challenges with an open mind, rather than attempt to escape and retreat from them. Your votes will determine the nation’s future. Consider the issues calmly. Then use your ballots to demonstrate responsible citizenship.

Full Text Below:

Terry Guo urged voters motivated by economic factors to stand up and be counted, and not allow political ideology to permit Taiwan to be drowned by the tidal wave of economic globalization. Guo’s emotion-laden appeal carried profound economic implications. Taiwan's economic miracle was once universally praised. It was one of the four Asian tigers, a title not easily earned. One of the reasons was a pragmatic openness that integrated Taiwan into the global trading system.

During the 1960s, the rise of free trade forced the nations of the world to take part in the globalization game. Comparative advantage became the engine of economic prosperity. In this game, Taiwan was hardly absent. It seized the opportunity to become a major player. Taiwan succeeded because it took part in international trade. Former Administrative Yuan political appointee Hsueh Chi once joked that the WTO's full name should be Watch Taiwan Open. He nailed it. Global economics and finance today are even more integrated. Taiwan faces even more daunting challenges. It has even less latitude for carelessness.

The WTO Doha Round of negotiations has long been stalemated. As a result, governments the world over began competing to see who could sign the most bilateral and regional economic cooperation agreements. Non-membership meant marginalization. On the other hand, timing is everything. Whoever seizes the initiative, will get the biggest piece of the international trade pie. According to WTO figures, governments the world over have implemented a total of 379 regional trade agreements (RTAs), including FTAs. Of these, more than 250 were signed during the past decade. In this regard, Taiwan has lagged behind.

In order to catch up, Taiwan recently signed bilateral economic cooperation agreements with its major trading partners. To achieve a breakthrough in international trade, Taiwan is developing and promoting FEPZs, accelerating the opening of its markets for goods and financial products. It is creating a genuinely liberalized trade environment. Alas, these have come to naught, because the STA and FEPZ bills have remained stalled in the Legislative Yuan.

The PRC-ROK FTA struck like a blow out of nowhere and took Taiwan down. Internal political troubles and competition from trading rivals intensified Taiwan’s economic plight.

The 2008 financial tsunami led to a substantial reorganization of the international trade environment. Emerging Markets, especially in Asia, are growing in importance. South Korea has just signed an FTA with a major trading partner. It is rapidly expanding its territory. It is gaining a foothold in the international trade sector. Taiwan cannot afford to delay. The current administration has finally passed ECFA. It has broken the shackles of international political reality. New Zealand and the ROC have successfully signed an economic cooperation agreement. This will become a springboard facilitating integration into the Asian-Pacific regional economy. In particular, it will enable us to join the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement (TPP) and the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (RCEP), two Mega FTAs. Will this golden opportunity slip away because the STA and FPEZ remain stalled?

More challenges await Taiwan. The PRC-ROK FTA is merely an appetizer. The PRC-Japan-ROK FTA is the main dish. Over the past 20 years, Asian exports to Europe have decreased. Intra-region trade meanwhile has dramatically increased. Mainland China, Japan, and South Korea's share of intra-regional trade increased from 12.3% in 1990 to 20.2% in 2012. This means that once the PRC-Japan-ROK FTA takes effect, the intra-regional trade advantage will further impact ROC trade relations with these three economies. Needless to say, the PRC-Japan-ROK FTA is the heart of the RCEP. The RCEP will probably be signed in late 2015. Its impact on Taiwan will be comparable to that of PRC-Japan-ROK FTA.

How should we on Taiwan respond to these economic and trade difficulties? We must pass the STA, complete negotiations over the MTA, sign economic cooperation agreements with major trading partners, and join the TPP or RCEP. We must do all of these. But these differ from our short-term goals. Our primary objective in the short-term must be to sign the STA and MTA, as soon as possible, and sign FTAs with other countries and join the TPP or RCEP. Successful trade liberalization and internationalization are our mid and long-term goals.

To achieve our long-term goals, our first task must be to pass the FEPZ special regulations. The FEPZs symbolize liberalization, internationalization, a forward-looking attitude, a significant loosening of restrictions over company employees, the movement of goods and capital, and conformance with international legal and regulatory standards. We must reduce barriers to investment, helping domestic and foreign enterprises attract foreign investment. We must upgrade and transform Taiwan’s industries, improving Taiwan's international status. This will help Taiwan participate in regional economic integration as soon as possible.

Voters motivated by economic considerations must seize the opportunity. The Taiwan Region of the ROC has an island-based economy. It must confront economic and financial globalization and the rise of the Mainland. Taiwan has few options. It must connect with the Mainland, then the rest of the world. It must face challenges with an open mind, rather than attempt to escape and retreat from them. Your votes will determine the nation’s future. Consider the issues calmly. Then use your ballots to demonstrate responsible citizenship.

社論－自由貿易或逃避退縮的選擇
2014年11月25日 04:10
本報訊

郭台銘呼籲經濟選民站出來，不要因為政治意識型態，讓台灣淹沒在經濟全球化的潮流。這樣的呼籲，感性中帶有深厚的經濟意涵。過往，台灣的經濟奇蹟，舉世稱道。亞洲四小龍的稱號，更是得來不易。箇中原因就是採取務實開放的精神，徹底融入全球經貿體系。

1960年代自由貿易興起，讓世界各國瘋狂加入全球化的遊戲，透過比較利益，帶動經濟的繁榮。在這場遊戲中，台灣不但沒有缺席，更順勢成為主角之一，成功奠定台灣在國際經貿的地位。前行政院政務委員薛琦就曾戲稱，WTO的全名應是Watch Taiwan Open，真是一語中的。如今，在全球經濟及金融更加整合的趨勢下，台灣的挑戰更大，也更加沒有缺席的本錢。

WTO杜哈回合談判陷入長期的僵局，促使世界各國進入雙邊或區域經濟合作的軍備競賽，不加入就等著被邊緣化。另一方面，時機的掌握也特別重要，誰先取得先機，誰就能分得更多國際經貿的大餅。根據WTO統計，截至目前為止，全球已生效實施的區域貿易協定（RTAs，包括FTA）總共有379個，其中有超過250個是近10年簽訂的。台灣，在這方面是明顯落後。

為了迎頭趕上，台灣近來除與主要貿易夥伴洽簽雙邊經濟合作協議、尋求國際經貿的突破外，更擬定並推動自由經濟示範區，加速開放商品及金融市場，營造真正經貿自由化的環境。然而，這些成果卻因為兩岸服貿協議及自由經濟示範區特別條例草案在立法院的擱置，逐漸化為烏有。而中韓FTA的簽署，更像是突如其來的一記重拳，將台灣直接擊倒。內部政治的紛擾與外在貿易對手國的競爭，無異加劇台灣的經貿困境。

2008年金融海嘯的發生，造成國際經貿版圖大幅重整，新興市場（尤其是亞洲地區）的重要性日益突顯。如今韓國藉由與主要貿易夥伴簽署FTA，快速地攻城掠地，在國際經貿板塊取得一席之地。台灣，實在沒有蹉跎的空間了。現在的主政者好不容易透過ECFA，突破國際政治現實的枷鎖，成功簽署台紐及台星經濟合作協議。未來，更有機會將此作為踏板，融入亞太區域經濟整合，特別是加入跨太平洋夥伴協定（TPP）及區域全面經濟夥伴協定（RCEP）這兩個巨型化的自由貿易協定（Mega FTA）。難道又要因為服貿及示範區的卡關，白白看著這個大好機會溜走嗎？

平心而論，台灣接下來面臨的考驗，中韓FTA或許只是前菜，中日韓FTA可能才是主菜。過去20年間，亞洲出口至歐美的比重明顯下降，但區內貿易比重卻反向大幅提升。其中，中日韓的區內貿易比重從1990年的12.3%，大幅成長至2012年的20.2%。此意味著一旦未來中日韓FTA成形，區內貿易的優勢，將會進一步衝擊台灣與這3國的貿易關係。更不用說，中日韓FTA是RCEP的核心，RCEP預計2015年底完成簽署，到時對台灣的影響鐵定不亞於中日韓FTA的衝擊。

面對當前經貿困境，台灣如何因應？通過服貿協議、完成貨貿協議的談判、與主要貿易夥伴簽署經濟合作協議、加入TPP或RCEP，都是解答，但短中長期目標有異。換言之，短期首要目標是盡速通過服貿及貨貿協議，而與他國洽簽FTA及加入TPP或RCEP，成功實現台灣經貿自由化及國際化則為中長期目標。

要達成中長期目標，首要之務是通過自由經濟示範區特別條例。因為示範區標榜自由化、國際化與前瞻性的精神，大幅鬆綁人員、貨品及資金的移動，並讓相關法規及行政措施與國際接軌。這除有利降低投資障礙並吸引國內外企業前來投資外，也有助台灣產業升級及轉型，更能提升台灣國際格局，讓台灣及早做好加入區域經濟整合準備。

經濟選民該好好思考一下，作為海島型的經濟體，面對經濟、金融全球化及中國崛起的大趨勢，台灣其實沒有太多選擇的機會。應取道大陸，走向世界，以開放的心態迎向挑戰，而不是逃避退縮，你的選票將對國家方向產生重大影響，想清楚後，就用你的選票呈現沉默卻真實的公民意識吧！