Cross-Strait Relations and the Economy: President Tsai Must Face Reality

Cross-Strait Relations and the Economy: President Tsai Must Face Reality
United Daily News Editorial (Taipei, Taiwan, ROC) 
A Translation 
August 28, 2016

Executive Summary: The new government must seek consensus on cross-Strait relations. It must cease viewing the Mainland as its imagined enemy. It must change its military strategy and legal framework. It must view peace in the Taiwan Strait as its highest priority. Only then cross-Strait relations get back on track. Ony then can Taiwan's economic momentum be restored.

Full Text Below:

President Tsai has been in office 100 days. Her approval ratings now resemble a death sentence. Swing voters are deserting in droves. This newspaper's own survey shows that over half the people oppose joining with the US and Japan to oppose the Mainland. They want the Tsai government to improve the economy and improve cross-Strait relations. President Tsai brushed away such concerns with the comment, "It's not that bad”. But approval ratings reflect current public sentiment. Tsai Ing-wen's approval ratings have nose-dived. They have fallen faster over the same period than her three predecessors'. Her approval ratings and the speed with which they have fallen, cannot be taken lightly. She cannot afford to inhabit a fool's paradise.

Every poll shows what the public wants. It desperately wants Pesident Tsai to deal with cross-Strait and economic matters, each of which affects the other. The Tsai government assumes that Beijing will eventually change its mind, decide that Tsai Ing-wen's May 20 inaugural address is acceptable, and maintain the diplomatic status quo. But the Hsiung Feng III missile launch fiasco, Tsai Ing-wen's callous indifference to the Mainland tourists burned to death in the tour bus fire, and the Presidential Office's remarks about “elephants and ants”, have undermined President Tsai's prestige. They have revealed her appointees' abysmally poor qualifications, and their lack of vision and professionalism. The Mainland has seen through her. They know she is incompetent. They know she lacks strategic vision and governing ability. Why should they compromise and bend over backwards for her? Why not sit back and watch Taiwan wither on the vine? After all, reunification is already at hand.

Taiwan has already undergone three ruling party changes. Democracy has already taken root. The public expects cross-Strait peace. It expects increased participation in international activities. Most people on Taiwan want to maintain the democratic status quo. Most people think neither reunification nor independence are feasible at the moment. So why not maintain a free and democratic way of life, and improve cross-Strait relations?  That is why most people oppose the new government's sabotaging of cross-Strait and foreign relations. They oppose the undermining of economically beneficial cross-Strait exchanges. They oppose the new government's reversion to diplomatic war and checkbook diplomacy, which have diminished Taiwan's participation in international activities.

DPP Chairman Tsai is also ROC President Tsai. The Constitution of the Republic of China and the DPP's Taiwan Independence Party Platform flat out contradict each other. Just exactly what does she want to be? President of the Republic of China? Chairman of the DPP? Or President of an independent “Republic of Taiwan”? Even she seems to be undecided. During her inaugural address, she refused to refer to her own nation by name, but referred to it instead as “this nation”.

During the 100 days since the inauguration, the Presidential Office, the Executive Yuan, and the DPP, along with deep green pressure groups, have frequently clashed over policy. President Tsai has attempted to mediate. This has confused the public as well as the Mainland. If President Tsai colludes with DPP legislators who promote "cultural Taiwan independence", and with deep green pressure groups who promote "de-Sinicization" Beijing will conclude that she is two-faced. That will undermine cross-Strait relations. Mainland tourists may stop coming altogether. The economy will stagnate. Our international participation will diminish. Unemployment will skyrocket. Antagonisms between the rich and the poor will intensify. Diplomatic isolation will increase. Taiwan's development will stall. International participation and cross-Strait relations go hand in hand. They must be our strategic goal.

The public does not buy the Tsai government's policy of joining with the US and Japan in order to oppose the Mainland. They realize Taiwan is likely to suffer the consequences long before it derives any benefit from such a policy. They fear that once cross-Strait relations deteriorate, the United States and Japan will sell out Taiwan. Investor confidence in Taiwan will plummet. Capital, technology, and talent will take flight. President Tsai longs to reduce economic dependence on the Mainland. To some extent this makes sense. But she must be honest with the people. The "New Southern Strategy" may be an attempt to diversity Taiwan's economy. But Taiwan cannot survive economically without the Mainland. It cannot depend on foreign nations alone.

Former American Institute in Taiwan Chairman Richard Bush recently warned President Tsai. He said Beijing may lose patience with Taiwan's persistent refusal to negotiate. If overall US strategy changes, or US-China military confrontation in East Asia changes, the US may reconsider its security commitments to Taiwan. Also, the Democratic Progressive Party now enjoys “total government” on Taiwan. The US may resort to "dual deterrence". It may use the carrot and the stick against Taipei as well as Beijing. What Taiwan itself chooses to do in the Taiwan Strait, will determine whether it enjoys peace and stability. In other words, long-term US policy will be one of strategic ambiguity. The US may not be able to maintain its current East Asian and cross-Strait posture. The Tsai government must beware.

Taiwan independence was the result of KMT failure to properly deal with the 2/28 Incident. Taiwan and the Mainland have no historical grievances. The current misunderstanding and conflict between Taiwan and the Mainland is the result of long-term separation and confrontation caused by clashes between two political authorities. The new government has recognized and accepted the constitutional system of the Republic of China. It has largely dispensed with the possibility of de jure independence. The new government must offer an interpretation of "one China". It must clarify the nature of relations between the Republic of China and the Peoples Republic of China. It must reaffirm that "people on both sides of the Strait are part of the Chinese nation". The resumption of constructive relations is not difficult. Simply straighten out cross-Strait relations. Only then can Taiwan's economic growth resume. Only then can Taiwan find a way out.

The new government must seek consensus on cross-Strait relations. It must cease viewing the Mainland as its imagined enemy. It must change its military strategy and legal framework. It must view peace in the Taiwan Strait as its highest priority. Only then cross-Strait relations get back on track. Ony then can Taiwan's economic momentum be restored.

社論：探究新政府執政困境系列 三》兩岸與經濟 蔡總統要面對現實
2016/8/28 下午 08:08:07  主筆室

蔡總統執政百天，民調滿意度已瀕臨「死亡交叉」，中間選民流失嚴重，本報調查數據更顯示，過半民眾反對「聯美日、抗中」路線，希望蔡政府優先搞好經濟與兩岸關係。蔡總統雖以一句「還好啦」輕鬆應對，但施政滿意度畢竟是人民即時的反應，尤其以蔡總統與前面三任總統同期民調相較，她的下降幅度與速度都最大，切不可掉以輕心、自我感覺良好。

所有民調數據都顯示，民眾高度期待蔡總統處理好兩岸與經濟問題，這兩者又有很高的連動性。蔡政府樂觀認為北京終究會調整態度，接受520就職演說主軸，並在外交領域維持現狀。但是，雄三誤射事件、輕率處理陸客團火燒車事件，到總統府新南向辦公室的「大象與螞蟻論」，一再重創蔡總統的領導威望，並暴露選才用人的水平、格局視野與專業欠缺，執政能量開始被大陸看破手腳。倘若蔡總統治國戰略高度與執政團隊治理能力被北京輕視，北京又何需對新政府展現靈活彈性與善意，只需坐視台灣走向凋零，「統一」就唾手可得。

台灣歷經三度政黨輪替，民主社會已經成型，公民對於兩岸和平發展有期待，也希望能夠開拓國際活動空間。「維持民主現狀」是台灣民意最大公約數，多數公民認為既然「統」與「獨」目前都做不到，還不如務實地維持自由民主生活方式、兩岸和緩良性互動以及健康的國際活動空間。因此，多數民眾不希望新政府的兩岸與外交政策破壞良性互動、經貿互利的兩岸關係，也反對新政府走回「烽火外交」與「支票簿外交」老路，讓台灣的國際活動空間越變越小。

身兼民進黨主席的蔡總統，糾結在《中華民國憲法》與《台獨黨綱》之間，到底要當中華民國總統？民進黨總統？還是台獨總統？連自己都搞不清楚，因而演說中不願稱呼自己的國號，只敢自稱「這個國家」。

就職百日以來，府院黨與深綠團體頻頻釋出相互矛盾的政策方向，蔡總統極力保持平衡感，民眾與大陸卻一頭霧水。倘若蔡總統放任民進黨閣員力推「文化台獨」，並與深綠團體「去中國化」合唱雙簧，將會被北京當局解讀為玩弄兩手策略，恐進一步影響兩岸良性互動，讓陸客止步、經貿停滯、國際空間萎縮，導致台灣失業人口暴增、社會貧富對立加劇、外交孤立困境惡化，對台灣整體發展不利，遑論達到國際關係是兩岸關係良性循環的戰略目標。

民眾對蔡政府「聯美日、抗中」路線並不買帳，甚至認為台灣恐將未蒙其利、先受其害，擔憂兩岸關係惡化，被美、日兩國出賣，並導致投資台灣信心不足，資金、技術、人才外流加劇。蔡總統有意降低對中國大陸的經濟依賴風險，自有其理性考量，但仍必須誠實告訴台灣人民，「新南向政策」是開拓台灣經濟空間的策略，但台灣的經濟繁榮不可能脫離兩岸與國際因素，尤其繞不開中國大陸。

美國在台協會前理事主席卜睿哲，日前向蔡總統發出警訊，指出北京可能對台灣抗拒協商的態度失去耐心，如果美國整體戰略出現變化，或者美、中在東亞軍力消長達到某種程度，美國可能會改變對台灣的安全承諾。此外，應對民進黨在台灣全面執政的新局，美國或許拿出「雙重嚇阻」劇本，對北京和台北提出適當的警告與保證混合使用，台灣自己要做什麼，將是台海和平穩定的關鍵變數。換言之，美國長期運用兩面嚇阻的模糊戰略，可能難以繼續支撐東亞及兩岸新局，蔡政府務必謹慎。

台獨是國民黨處理二二八事件失敗所造就，台灣和今天的大陸與中共之間並沒有仇恨，台灣和大陸的誤解與衝突，是長期隔絕及政權對抗所造成，新政府承認並接受中華民國憲法與憲政體制，已實質拋棄法理台獨的可能性，只要對「一個中國」的內涵能提出論述，說清楚中華民國與中國的關係，並體現「兩岸人民同屬中華民族」，兩岸恢復建設性關係並不難。只要先理順兩岸關係，台灣經濟成長的任督二脈才能打通，台灣才能找到寬闊的出路。

找出與大陸的兩岸關係共識，改變以大陸為假想敵的軍事戰略與法理架構，以台海和平為基本國策，兩岸關係可以回到正軌，台灣經濟成長動能將可恢復。