If TPP Fails to Pass, What Will Taipei Do?

If TPP Fails to Pass, What Will Taipei Do?
United Daily News Editorial (Taipei, Taiwan, ROC) 
A Translation 
August 15, 2016

Executive Summary: Twelve nations on both sides of the Pacific have finally reached agreement on the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP). But both leading US presidential candidates have publicly opposed the agreement. If the TPP fails to pass during the five months left in Obama's term of office, the new president could shelve the agreement indefinitely. This would endanger American leadership. All nations seeking to join the TPP, including the ROC, must reconsider their options.

Full Text Below:

Twelve nations on both sides of the Pacific have finally reached agreement on the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP). But both leading US presidential candidates have publicly opposed the agreement. If the TPP fails to pass during the five months left in Obama's term of office, the new president could shelve the agreement indefinitely. This would endanger American leadership. All nations seeking to join the TPP, including the ROC, must reconsider their options.

Obama recently told Singaporean Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong that he, Obama, is currently the president, and he supports the TPP. But even as Obama spoke, six House Republicans signed a letter asking him not to put the TPP up for a vote. Earlier, when Congress voted 218 to 208 to grant Obama fast track negotiating authority, these six stood by him. Now however, they have flipped, and guarantee Obama's defeat.

Now that the TPP may be shelved, the government must rethink its development path. Currently every nation in the world considers trade its highest priority. No progress has been made in WTO negotiations. Therefore they have begun signing bilateral or multilateral free trade agreements, or joining regional trade associations. Taipei's goal is to join the Washington led TPP and the Beijing led Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP).

The Ma government adopted a two-pronged approach. On the one hand, it signed the STA with Beijing. It also negotiated an MTA. It sought Mainland help in joining the RCEP. On the other hand, it sought help from Washington joining the TPP during second round negotiations. It allowed the importation of key agricultural products, especially US pork containing Ractopamine. When the DPP came to power, cross-Strait relations chilled. The STA can no longer be passed into law. MTA negotiations have ground to a halt. The COA chairman announced that the DPP government would allow US pork imports. This triggered immediate protests. The Tsai government was afraid to rock the boat, and did not try again. The Tsai government is hobbled. It lacks clear direction. It has called for a "New Southern Strategy". But the business community sees no market in the south. Naturally it is in no hurry to invest there.

Passage of the TPP during Obama's term appears unlikely. Whether Hillary or Trump is elected, the content of the agreement may change. Taipei being voted in during second round negotiations, during President Tsai's term, is extremely unlikely. Therefore current pressure from Washington to allow US pork imports may be a blessing in disguise. But if political commissar Teng Chen-chung spins this as promotion of the TPP, he is either ignorant or engaged in self-deception.

The TPP is a high standard international trade agreement. Taiwan's political atmosphere is highly protectionist. Any attempt to liberalize agriculture or services will be met with widespread protests. If truth be told, even now the TPP would have a hard time passing. By contrast, the RCEP is an eminently suitable free trade agreement for developing nations. Tariff barriers can be eliminated through negotiations. Nations which insist on retaining protective measures can also be accommodated. Therefore, Taipei can first negotiate with these nations according to RCEP standards. Then, step by step, it can negotiate with them according to TPP standards.

Put bluntly, the government is currently under a political shadow. The Tsai government refuses to recognize the 1992 Consensus. Therefore Beijing has closed down all channels of communication. This makes joining the RCEP even more difficult. Taipei hopes that based on political considerations, Washington will treat Taiwan the same as it has Vietnam, relaxing its TPP membership requirements. This would fulfill Washington's trade and strategic requirements in one fell swoop. But any such hope will only end in disappointment. Washington cares only about US national interests. It is unwilling to compromise on bilateral trade agreements. The TPP is no exception. Due to political considerations, politicians often say no when they mean no, letting down other Asia-Pacific nations. Not to mention, national leaders who make concessions during negotiations are often forced to step down.

The government is overly reliant on political slogans. It obstinately refuses to have contacts with the Mainland. It forfeits tangible economic benefits. This is the same Closed Door Policy that Chen Shui-bian imposed on the nation when he was in power. The only difference is in degree. Today nations are rooted in economic and trade relations. Every nation seeks shelter from the storm. Asia-Pacific nations talk with the United States about the TPP. But they also talk with Beijing about the RCEP. Our diplomatic situation is fundamentally unfavorable. Putting all our eggs in one basket of course, make it even more dangerous. Taipei cannot afford to offend either Beijing or Washington. When Washington abandons its allies out of self interest, it does not even bothers to say goodbye. Has the Tsai government learned nothing from the Taiping Island incident?

聯合／TPP若未通過，台灣如何因應？
2016-08-15 02:47 聯合報 聯合報社論

太平洋兩岸十二國好不容易達成跨太平洋夥伴協議（TPP），而如今，主導的美國之兩黨總統候選人都公開反對此協議。TPP若不能在歐巴馬剩下的五個月任期內通過的話，可能被新總統無限期擱置下去；這不僅危及美國的領導地位，所有TPP成員國及希望加入的台灣在內都必須重新思考出路。

歐巴馬日前藉歡迎新加坡總理李顯龍時特別強調，「現在我是總統，我支持TPP」。但就在他談話之際，六位共和黨眾議員聯名寫信，要求歐巴馬勿在年底提出表決。稍早國會以二一八票對二○八票通過快速授權，這六人站在歐巴馬這邊；現在這些人轉向，便左右了歐巴馬落敗的關鍵。

面對TPP可能擱置，台灣必須重新思考：我們的發展出路何在？目前，世界各國無不以經貿為重中之重，在WTO談判遲無進展下，各國皆以簽訂雙邊或多邊自貿協定或加入經貿集團為目標；而加入美國主導的TPP及中國大陸主導的RCEP（區域全面經濟夥伴協議），正是台灣的目標。

馬政府時代的作法，是兩路並進：一方面與大陸簽定服貿，洽談貨貿，希望經由大陸協助加入RCEP；另一方面則積極與美國洽商第二輪加入TPP的可能，關鍵在農產品市場自由化，尤其是瘦肉精美豬的開放。民進黨上台後，兩岸關係僵滯，服貿無法立法，貨貿協商喊卡。農委會主委上台前一句「開放美豬」，立刻引發強烈抗議；蔡政府擔心動搖政權基礎，自不敢輕易再試。正因蔡政府裹足不前，沒有明確的新方向，雖喊出「新南向」的口號，但工商界不知道市場在哪裡，當然不敢貿然投資。

目前看來，TPP在歐巴馬任內通過的機會不大，而無論希拉蕊或川普當選，以目前協議的內容也沒有通過的可能；因此，台灣想要在蔡總統任內拿到第二輪門票，希望極其渺茫。也因此，此刻暫緩諸如美豬開放的美方壓力，可謂塞翁失馬；但如果還將鄧振中出任政委說成是為了推動TPP，恐怕是昧於形勢，且自欺欺人。

TPP是國際上最高規格的自貿協議，而以台灣目前的政治及社會氛圍，從農業到服務業都充滿濃烈的保護主義氣息，碰到任何開放措施都要抗爭；說實在，就算TPP此刻通過，其門檻也是我們難以跨過的。相對而言，RCEP是一個適合發展中國家參加的自貿協議，透過談判，可以去除關稅壁壘，而各國想要保留的保護部分也有相當彈性。因此，我國如先以RCEP的標準與這些夥伴國家談，循序漸進，再以TPP的標準與他們談，應更為事半功倍。

說穿了，目前籠罩在政府心中的，其實是政治陰影。因為蔡政府不承認九二共識，大陸關閉協商機制，加入RCEP有政治上的困難；也因此，才會期待美國基於政治考慮，像對待越南一樣讓台灣以比較寬鬆的條件加入TPP，一舉與美國在經貿與戰略上緊密結合。但這種想望，終究要以失望收場。美國在乎的是自己的國家利益，每次雙邊經貿談判都寸步不讓，包括TPP也不例外，政治人物往往因政治考慮說不贊成就不贊成，辜負了其他亞太國家的期待。更遑論，國家領導人因談判讓步而下台的，所在多有。

我們認為，政府過度堅持政治口號，死硬不與大陸接觸，棄實際經濟利益於不顧，這和陳水扁時代的「鎖國」，只是五十步與百步之別。況且，在今天的經貿立國時代，每個國家都在追求避險，故亞太各國既與美國談TPP，也與大陸談RCEP；我國外交處境已經先天不利，若還孤注一擲，當然危險。台灣沒有得罪中美任何一方的本錢，當美國為自身利益要拋棄盟邦時，連句場面話都不會留給說。從太平島事件，蔡英文政府難道還沒得到教訓？