China Times Editorial (Taipei, Taiwan, ROC)
A Translation
August 3, 2016
Executive Summary: Over the past several days, the Global Times has incited populist sentiment over the tour bus fire incident. This may not be something that the Mainland authorities want to see. But public antipathy toward Taiwan independence on the Mainland is very real, and cannot be ignored. The tour bus fire incident took place on Taiwan. Taiwan authorities are responsible. They must make every effort to uncover the truth. They must invite Mainland experts to Taiwan. They must use forensic science to reconstruct the accident, and uncover the truth. The accident rate for Mainland tourists on Taiwan is undeniably too high. Are these accidents part of some larger pattern? A thorough investigation must be conducted, one that will enable the Mainland to unravel the mystery, and prevent the two sides from colliding head on.
Full Text Below:
During President Tsai Ing-wen's May 20 inaugural address, she said, "People expect the new government to solve problems". But two months later, the new government isn't solving problems. It's creating more problems. No wonder two recent polls show President Tsai's approval numbers plummetting.
Among the many problems the new government has created, the most outrageous is perhaps the tour bus fire incident that burned 26 Mainland tourists from Liaoning to death. The government pandered to politics and the police fell down on the job, worsening an already bad cross-Strait situation. When the accident first happened, the president declared "There can be no tourism without safety". Premier Lin declared the need to "checkup on the tourism industry". These high profile declarations were hollow. They included no expressions of empathy for the families of the victims burned to death. Arson investigators and crime scene investigators were clueless. The truth remains elusive, therefore the dark shadow cast by the incident continues to grow. Official cross-Strait relations following the DPP's return to power were already chilly. The political flames from the tour bus fire incident spread quickly. President Tsai eulogized the Taiwanese tour guide with a couplet, but expressed no sympathy whatsoever for the Mainland tourists who died. This provoked a major storm in the Mainland media, and will inevitably make cross-Strait relations worse.
Crash investigation and reconstruction is extremely difficult. Everyone on the bus perished. No witnesses survived. No one is left to testify. Clues are nowhere to be found. The flames charred the entire vehicle black. The vehicle lacked a GPS trip recorder. The company had no remote monitoring data, and nothing for investigators to latch onto. The only hope appears to be forensic evidence. The question arises, where are the forensic experts with public credibility?
The Mainland family members want "Mainland participation in the forensic investigation". But the Lin cabinet refused. As a result, it lost the moral high ground. Taiwan is supposedly an open society. Everything is supposedly open and transparent. There is no need for so-called "judicial sovereignty". Not only should forensic experts from the Mainland participate, so should forensic experts from other nations. That is how it is done in international arbitration. Crash investigation and reconstruction must be acceptable to all parties to ensure trust in the investigation. Sadly, Lin Chuan refused. Now clouds of suspicion hang above the Taiwan Strait.
Expert arson investigators on Taiwan investigated the tour bus fire incident. But the case is more than a traffic accident. Political recriminations and public skepticism have rapidly increased. Forensics investigations initially focused on the escape door latches and power overloads. This was not quite missing the forest for the trees, but did little to win the trust of the pubic and the victims' families. Was the vehicle "jury rigged"? The audio video systems may be subject to criticism. But they had little to do with the tour bus fire. The real problem is an inadequate tour bus system.
Taiwan has approximately 17,000 tour buses. Supply exceeds demand. The market consists primarily of Mainland tourists, pilgrims, and students on field trips or graduation trips. The number of Mainland tourists has fallen. The number of bookings by students is rapidly rising. But the Ministry of Education requires buses to be less than five years old. In other words, the buses depreciate much too rapidly. The industry cannot afford to invest in higher quality, safer vehicles. The result is the current vicious cycle.
Soon after the families of the victims returned to the Mainland, a string of revelations surfaced. The tour bus driver was badly intoxicated. A gasoline container was found inside the bus. The driver had been convicted of sexual assault. He was about to begin serving a prison sentence, and was also liable for civil penalties. Prosecutors and police issued a string of mealy-mouthed statements, saying "We do not rule out... [this, that, or the other]”. This created even more uncertainty. As a result, some began to suspect that the police had fabricated a story passing the buck onto the dead driver. Others suspected that a Taiwan independence driver committed an act of terrorism against Mainland tourists. All manner of bizarre speculation began to challenge the credibility of the forensic report.
The tour bus fire incident must revert to the status of a scientific investigation. The report must be made public. It must be subject to challenge. Only questioning, followed by explanations, followed by debate, can persuade everyone to accept the truth. Only such a process can restore objectivity and effectiveness to the justice system on Taiwan. The government's response following the incident was inappropriate. It failed to win over the families of the victims. It failed to take the moral high ground. As the families of the deceased left for the Mainland, they cried, "We demand the truth". Lest we forget, when Mainland authorities bungled the investigation of the Qiandao Lake incident, the families of the victims on Taiwan remained unconvinced. This triggered revulsion towards the Mainland and set back cross-Strait relations.
Over the past several days, the Global Times has incited populist sentiment over the tour bus fire incident. This may not be something that the Mainland authorities want to see. But public antipathy toward Taiwan independence on the Mainland is very real, and cannot be ignored. The tour bus fire incident took place on Taiwan. Taiwan authorities are responsible. They must make every effort to uncover the truth. They must invite Mainland experts to Taiwan. They must use forensic science to reconstruct the accident, and uncover the truth. The accident rate for Mainland tourists on Taiwan is undeniably too high. Are these accidents part of some larger pattern? A thorough investigation must be conducted, one that will enable the Mainland to unravel the mystery, and prevent the two sides from colliding head on.
釐清火燒車真相 止兩岸民粹對撞
2016/8/3 中國時報
蔡英文總統在520就職演說中高亢地說，「人民期待新政府解決問題」，但掌舵兩個月來，人民卻發現新政府不但未解決問題，反而製造更多問題，難怪最近兩份民調蔡總統施政滿意度均急速下墜。
新政府製造的諸多問題中，大陸遼寧旅遊團火燒車26死事件，可能是其中最離譜的一件，政府受政治態度綁架、檢警公權力表現失能，非常可能惡化原已失睦的兩岸關係。沒錯，事故發生第一時間，總統宣示「沒有安全就沒有觀光」，林揆指示「觀光業總體檢」，這些話很高調，也很空洞，對弭平火燒車罹難者家屬的傷痛毫無作用；檢警火場鑑識毫無章法，至今真相不明，事故陰影面不斷擴大。原本兩岸官方關係在民進黨執政後漸行漸遠，火燒車事件的政治猜忌迅速延燒，對照蔡總統在公祭時致贈殉難台籍導遊「典範長昭」輓聯，卻吝於對罹難陸客給予最起碼的同悲，在大陸媒體引發了強烈的風暴，難免對嚴峻的兩岸關係雪上加霜。
重建真相確實難度極高，車上乘員全數喪生，沒有目擊者，無從指證，蛛絲馬跡杳然；烈焰造成全車重度碳化，車上沒有行車紀錄器，公司也無遠端監控雲端資料，全無「科學辦案」著力點，只能寄望鑑識出現端倪。問題出現了，誰來鑑識才是權威，才能獲致信服？
大陸家屬要求「陸方參與鑑識」卻被林內閣拒絕，因而失去了重建真相的「制高點」。台灣是個開放的社會，萬事公開透明，無需被所謂的「司法主權觀」綁架，不但該邀陸方，還可以邀國際權威第三方參與鑑識，以類似仲裁庭的設計，重建可為各方接受的公信調查過程。可惜林全不此之圖，造成如今漫天疑雲與兩岸猜忌。
台灣的火場鑑識菁英在火燒車事件精銳盡出，可惜案件本質已不全然是車禍，政治紛擾下質疑聲浪快速升高。最初鑑識聚焦在逃生門暗鎖、用電超負荷，雖不能說是捨本逐末，但對建構完整案情取得社會及家屬的信賴毫無益處。至於對肇事車輛是「拼裝車」，聲光音響金玉其外但敗絮其中的批評，更與火燒車事件案情關係不大，實歸因遊覽車制度不當。
台灣遊覽車總數約17000輛，供過於求，市場集中在陸客、進香團、校外教學、學生畢業旅行，陸客量萎縮後，學校市場爭得更凶，但教育部規定學校租車車齡應在5年以下，換言之，遊覽車汰換率高，業者很難投資高檔、高安全車輛，造成如今惡性循環局面。
但在罹難家屬離台後，突然持續爆出重大案情，傳出遊覽車司機極度酒醉駕車、車上發現汽油瓶、司機因性侵案遭判決有罪，需入監服刑並承擔民事賠償等駭人情節，檢警一連串以「不排除……」語法重建火燒車拼圖過程，更讓事件更顯得懸疑，因而傳出檢警「編造劇情推給死人」、「台獨司機對陸客恐攻」等離奇猜測，挑戰鑑識報告的可信度。
於今之際，火燒車事件的鑑識要回到科學辦案，鑑定報告必須公布，以接受各方質疑；只有走過「質疑說明辯論」的過程，才能重建為大家接受的「真相」；也才能拾回台灣司法檢警的客觀性及辦案能力。由於政府在意外事件發生第一時間點應對不恰當，未能取得罹難家屬信服的戰略「制高點」，讓往生者家屬哭喊著「要真相」踏上返途。不要忘記當年千島湖事件，案發後第一時間公安調查草率，未取得台灣家屬信賴，引發台灣對大陸的強烈反感，造成兩岸關係的逆轉與退化。
這幾天，《環球時報》以民粹動員方式報導火燒車事件，這未必是大陸官方所樂見，但大陸社會對台灣問題的民粹主張與力量是真實的存在，台灣不能輕忽。陸客火燒車事件錯在台灣，台灣有責任盡一切努力調查真相，並邀請大陸專業人士來台，依據科學鑑識結果共同還原事件過程，釐清真相。陸客來台觀光意外事件發生率與死傷率確實偏高，是否與一條龍模式有關，亦應深入調查改革，方能讓大陸釋疑，防止兩岸民粹對撞。
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