China Times Editorial (Taipei, Taiwan, ROC)
A Translation
August 5, 2016
Executive Summary: Public support is essential for the President's reforms. President Tsai's poll numbers have plummeted during the first one hundred days since her inauguration. Tsai Ing-wen is losing the bargaining chips she needs for reform. Her honeymoon period is rapidly coming to an end. President Tsai has declared a multi-front war. The people are in distress. Tsai Ing-wen would be well advised to return to the two basic tenets of national governance: promote economic prosperity and ensure cross-Strait peace.
Full Text Below:
Less than a month from now, President Tsai Ing-wen will have been in office for one hundred days. Former US presidential advisor David Gergen noted that the greater part of a national leader's legacy is established during his or her first one hundred days in office, the “honeymoon period”. The history of modern democracies shows that a national leader's power and prestige do not increase over time. Rather they are at their highest when the leader first takes office. From then on it experiences a steady decline. If the leader achieves litle or nothing during his or her first one hundred days in office, reversing the situation during a later term is impossible. President Tsai made too many promises of reform during her election campaign. Knowing this, she really should be worried.
Recently two pro-green polls set off alarm bells for Tsai Ing-wen. The first poll showed Tsai Ing-wen's approval ratings still topping 50%, but plummeting 14%. The second poll showed her approval ratings slipping slightly, but her disapproval ratings rocketing nearly 24%, from 12.5% two weeks after her inauguration to 36% by the end of July. Why has a newly elected president, swept into office with such great fanfare, fallen so low in two short months? News reports suggest President Tsai over-promised on reform during her election campaign, only to declare five new wars upon taking office. Each of these wars is fraught with peril. The outcome is uncertain, but affect people's perceptions, value systems, and vital interests. Everyone has been swept onto the battlefield. Social unrest is guaranteed.
The first war that Tsai has declared, is with the Mainland. The newly victorious Tsai Ing-wen was initially cautious about cross-Strait relations. Nevertheless upon taking office, she worsened the impasse over the 1992 Consensus. She even told the US media that she rejected the Mainland's deadline for acceptance of the 1992 Consensus. She treated sovereignty over Taiping Island in the same negligent, ambivalent manner as always. When a fire killed an entire tour bus filled with Mainland tourists, she not only refused to mourn the victims, she even bungled the eulogy, further enraging the Mainland public. Worse still, Academia Historica set back academic neutrality by limiting access to scholars from the Mainland, Hong Kong, and Macao. Its policy and personnel appointments reflect glaringly obvious cultural Taiwan independence and de-Sinicization tendencies. These have further exacerbated cross-Strait tensions, and undermined Taiwan's tourism industry, agriculture, and fishing industry. Countless individuals have been caught in its wake.
The second war that Tsai has declared, is against pensioners. Pension reform is necessary. But its implementation has been crude, chaotic, and lacking in credibility. The DPP has habitually demonized military personnel, civil servants, and public school teachers. Winning their trust was always going to be difficult. Yet the first thing the Tsai regime did upon taking office was to appoint long-time critics of the pension system. Groups representing military personnel, civil servants, and public school teachers, refer to these unqualified and unprofessional appointees as the "Queen's Commissioners". Pension reform has gone awry from the very outset. Reaching any kind of understanding on intractable issues will be difficult. Military personnel, civil servants, and public school teachers have long been the most important force for stability on Taiwan. Pension reform that is crude, that demonizes pensioners, is forcing them to take to the streets on September 3. The new government's most positive, stabilizing force, has become Taiwan's most destabilizing force. How can Taiwan possibly know peace?
The third war that Tsai has declared, is against the KMT. Tsai has initiated a political pogrom. The KMT was routed in 2016. But half the voters still prefers the blue camp. They merely failed to vote. Over the years Taiwan has remained mired in blue vs. green political bickering. People are disgusted with the endless political conflict. Yet upon taking office, Tsai not only refused reconciliation, she did the opposite. She used the banners of "improper party assets" and "transitional justice" as pretexts to dismember the KMT. She has made her vendetta against the KMT the highest priority for her government, provoking unrest among blue camp supporters.
The fourth and fifth wars that Tsai Ing-wen has declared, are public relations wars. Tsai has apologized to Aborigines and established an "Aboriginal History and Transitional Justice Committee", and a “Judicial Reform Committee” at the presidential office. These two reform projects are arduous. If Tsai Ing-wen has the courage to take them on, more power to her. But Aboriginal history, identity, and land ownership issues, and Tsai's promised "special relationship with Aborigines" remains empty talk. Aboriginal expectations have been raised. Future agitation and conflict are guaranteed.
The green camp has not even begun judicial reform. Yet Tsai's personnel appointments for President and Vice President of the Judicial Yuan have already provoked a firestorm. The people are filled with doubts about the justice system. The criminal justice system is a highly specialized realm. The justice system is far removed from the daily lives of ordinary people. Yet the virtues or vices of the justice system will determine the fate of criminal justice and social order. Judicial reform, once begun, leads to uncertainty and conflict. But it will also have a far-reaching impact on the future of the country.
Public support is essential for the President's reforms. President Tsai's poll numbers have plummeted during the first one hundred days since her inauguration. Tsai Ing-wen is losing the bargaining chips she needs for reform. Her honeymoon period is rapidly coming to an end. President Tsai has declared a multi-front war. The people are in distress. Tsai Ing-wen would be well advised to return to the two basic tenets of national governance: promote economic prosperity and ensure cross-Strait peace.
五面作戰 蔡英文百日政績堪憂
2016/8/5 中國時報
不到1個月，蔡英文總統就職將屆滿百日。曾任美國總統文膽的大衛．葛根指出，國家領導人政績大半就任「百日定江山」，是謂總統的黃金百日。依據近代民主政治歷史規律，民主國家元首的權力與威望，並不會隨著時間累積而增加，反而在上任時達於巔頂，後一步一步走低、損耗。若百日內交不出成績，就很難在接下來的任期反轉局面。從這個歷史規律來看，競選期間做出太多改革承諾的蔡總統，確實應該捏一把冷汗。
最近二個親綠民調接踵對蔡英文發出警訊，其一，蔡英文的滿意度雖然仍過半，但已大跌14%；另一個民調蔡總統滿意度微幅滑落，但不滿意度由就職兩周的12.5%攀升至7月底的36%，陡增近24%。為什麼一個才風光上任的新總統，會在短短2個月內民調大傷？就媒體內容分析可判斷，應是選前做出太多改革承諾的蔡總統，選後急功冒進同時開闢了5個戰場，但每一個戰場都具高度衝突性與不確定性，戰鬥結果都可能影響許多人的認知與價值系統或切身利益，幾乎所有人都被迫走上戰場，社會當然顯得動盪不安。
第1個戰場是兩岸。剛勝選的蔡英文尚看得出對兩岸的穩健謹慎，但上任後卻把九二共識的結打得愈來愈死，甚至對美國媒體表示不接受大陸的「限期接受」；太平島主權問題輕忽於前、首鼠兩端於後；陸客火燒車事件，不至靈堂致哀，又在輓聯處理上失當，加深了大陸民眾的不滿；尤有甚者，國史館竟大開學術中立倒車，限制陸港澳學者調閱資料；在政策與人事上鮮明的文化台獨與去中國化傾向，更使得兩岸緊張關係持續升高，並連鎖衝擊台灣的觀光、農漁與經濟，讓眾多台灣民眾陷於不安。
第2個戰場是年金改革，年金改革雖有必要，但作法卻顯得粗糙、無序並欠缺公信力。年金改革啟動前，民進黨長期汙名化軍公教人員，已難獲軍公教族群信任。年金改革啟動階段，就先任命若干長期為綠營批判軍公教退休金制度、不具年金改革專業的人士擔任委員，被軍公教團體痛批為「御用委員會」，起步已走歪了第一哩路，往後的議事程序與議題安排就難獲得信賴。軍公教長期以來是台灣最重要的安定力量，一個粗糙、針對性汙名化的年金改革，卻逼得軍公教揚言要在9月3日走上街頭。新政府把台灣最安定的力量，變成最不安的力量，台灣焉有寧日？
第3個戰場是一系列清算國民黨的政治追殺，雖然國民黨在2016年大敗，但支持藍營的民眾仍約有半數，他們只是沒有站出來投票而已。這些年來台灣陷於藍綠惡鬥，民眾對政黨永無止盡的對立早已深惡痛絕。蔡英文上台後不知止鬥和解，卻反其道而行，拿著「不當黨產」與「轉型正義」兩面大旗，赤裸裸地企圖支解國民黨，還當成最優先的政務，加劇了藍營支持者的不寧。
第4個與第5個戰場，是蔡英文以國家元首身分向原住民道歉，並在總統府成立「原住民族歷史正義與轉型正義委員會」以及宣示司法改革，在總統府成立「司法改革委員會」。這兩件事，也是非常艱鉅的改革任務，蔡英文有勇氣面對，可給予肯定，但原住民的正義問題涉及歷史觀、認同感及土地所有權問題，甚至蔡總統承諾的「原住民族與國家特殊關係」其定義與內涵仍毫無頭緒，但原住民的期望已經升高，未來的激盪與衝突勢所必然。
至於司法改革，還沒上路綠營內部就為了司法院正副院長的人事案吵翻天，民眾對司法體系也充滿質疑與不信賴，但司法本身是一個高度封閉與專業的領域，可以說司法與社會的距離極其遙遠，但司法制度的良窳將決定社會正義與秩序的存廢，司法改革一旦啟動，就是一連串不確定與衝突的開始，更將深遠影響未來國家的成敗。
社會支持是總統推動改革的重要資產，若以蔡總統民調快速走下坡的趨勢，就職百日後，蔡英文將喪失推動改革的籌碼。面對百日蜜月即將結束，蔡總統與其廣開火線、陷民心於不安，不如回歸治國二本：拚經濟發展、拚兩岸和平。
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