Help the Green Camp Assess Tsai-Lin Government Successes and Failures

Help the Green Camp Assess Tsai-Lin Government Successes and Failures
United Daily News Editorial (Taipei, Taiwan, ROC) 
A Translation 
September 1, 2016

Executive Summary: Green Camp criticism of the Tsai government has intensified. Green camp members are even referring to Tsai Ing-wen as a “hun jun”, i.e., a “fatuous and self-indulgent ruler”. Taiwan independence elder Wu Li-pei is livid. He says that "If Lin Chuan does not step down, Tsai Ing-wen is done for". He echoed the sentiments of many green camp members. But would replacing Lin Chuan really cure what ails the Tsai government? That is far too naive.

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Green Camp criticism of the Tsai government has intensified. Green camp members are even referring to Tsai Ing-wen as a “hun jun”, i.e., a “fatuous and self-indulgent ruler”. Taiwan independence elder Wu Li-pei is livid. He says that "If Lin Chuan does not step down, Tsai Ing-wen is done for". He echoed the sentiments of many green camp members. But would replacing Lin Chuan really cure what ails the Tsai government? That is far too naive.

President Tsai has been in office 100 days. But no one is happy. Most people think she has departed from mainstream consensus. The blue camp accuses her of carrying out a political vendetta. The green camp disapproves of her "old, blue, male" cabinet appointments. Beijing is unhappy with her refusal to recognize the 1992 Consensus. Everyone is displeased with her. The Tsai Lin government's response is either too slow or too self-contradictory. The new government's halo has already lost its luster. A government cannot please everyone. No government can stonewall indefinitely. That much is abundantly clear.

Tsai Ing-wen is attempting to take a different path than Chen Shui-bian. But the problem is, she cannot decide what path to take. As a result, she is encountering obstacles all along the way. Many green camp members wax nostalgic over the early days of Chen Shui-bian's rule. They want Tsai Ing-wen to revert to the old green camp path. They assume only that can restore the ruling Democratic Progressive Party's prestige. Chen Shui-bian's path has been proven a failure. Nevertheless it haunts many green camp members like an apparition. Even younger generation green camp members recall Chen Shui-bian's political trickery with fondness. It now remains to be seen whether Tsai Ing-wen possesses the vision and wisdom to change course. If she doesn't, then all she can do is follow meekly in Chen Shui-bian's footsteps, and lead Taiwan to an even greater disaster.

The first indicator is Lin Chuan. Will he become "Tang Fei the Second"? Taiwan independence elements are blasting Lin Chuan. But Tsai Ing-wen is unlikely to throw Lin Chuan to the wolves. At least not immediately. Lin Chuan is more like a partner to Tsai Ying-wen. Tang Fei was more a “guest” and “shield” to Chen Shui-bian. The relationships are quite different. Also, dumping Lin Chuan would probably leave Tsai Ing-wen without a hand to play. Her plight would be even more desperate. When Chen Shui-bian pushed "giant rock" Tang Fei out of his way, all his rhetoric about "a government for all the people", and "a new centrist path" fell by the wayside. Tsai Ing-wen is unlikely to make the same mistake.

The second indicator is whether Tsai can reconcile the differences between the “Tsai-Lin government” and a “DPP government”. Since taking office, Tsai Ing-wen has been struggling to maintain a relationship between the party and the government, but with little success. Differences between the party and the government remain and often lead to clashes. Tsai Ing-wen has given many younger people government jobs. But this has not eased frictions. In short, current Tsai government personnel appointments have not moved the machinery of state. They have failed to meet public expectations. Even if Tsai fails to replace Lin Chuan, she must appoint better people to the cabinet. Otherwise the tail will continue to wag the dog, and the Tsai government will continue to be hijacked by extremist forces.

The third indicator is Tsai Ing-wen's ability to reflect on her own path. The Lin Chuan cabinet has disappointed the public. But those whom the green camp wants to step down, include the Minister of Defense, the Minister of Foreign Affairs, and the Chief of MAC. All of them are under the President's direct command. Is this a matter of politics, or a matter of decision-making ability? That has yet to be determined. In fact, during the her first 100 days, Tsai Ying-wen directly or indirectly intervened in affairs large and small. Her micro-management has led to confusion over authority and responsibility. Pressure groups have overreached and undermined the rule of law. On the surface, the government has resolved a whole host of problems. But endless complications will ensue, making it ever more difficult to implement fair policies. Tsai Ing-wen relied on pressure groups to seize power. She is now returning the favor. But if one's goal is a sound civil society, one cannot afford to shoot holes in the rule of law. Otherwise one is bound to fall short.

Wu Li-pei's fate will not be Tsai Ing-wen's fate. Tsai Ing-wen's fate will not be determined by whether Lin Chuan goes or stays. Just what sort of government do the green camp and Taiwan independence forces want? Even they cannot say. But careful review of the Tsai government's first 100 days, shows that "green camp ecumenism" is not the answer. If Tsai Ing-wen does not want her administration to go down the tubes, she had better be clear on who is leading her around by the nose.

聯合／幫綠營重新盤點蔡林政府功過
2016-09-01 03:41 聯合報 聯合報社論

最近，綠營對蔡政府的批評聲浪越拉越高，連「昏君」的重話都脫口而出。獨派大老吳澧培更是怒火沖天，指名道姓「林全不下台，蔡英文沒有明天」；此話，恐怕道出了許多綠營人士的心聲。但是，換掉林全，蔡政府的病症就能霍然而癒嗎？這種想法未免太過天真。

蔡英文總統執政百日，其實各方都不滿意。一般民眾認為她偏離了全民的主軸，藍營批評她專搞鬥爭清算，綠營認為「老藍男」內閣所用非人，北京則不滿她拒絕承認九二共識。面對這四面八方紛來沓至的不滿，蔡林政府的因應不是過於緩慢，就是陷入髮夾彎，新政光環因此快速磨損。施政不能一味討好，也不能光靠硬拗，由此可見。

目前主要的問題是，蔡英文企圖走一條不同於陳水扁的執政路線，卻不知路徑何在，因此一路摸索頻遇荊棘。另一方面，許多綠營人士則仍迷戀陳水扁執政早期的「風光」，希望把蔡英文拉回以綠營為中心的老路，以為如此才能光大民進黨的執政威望。事實上，陳水扁路線早已證明是失敗，但它仍像鬼魅般盤踞在綠營人士心頭，連年輕一代幕僚也還在懷念陳水扁耍點小技即能讓全國傾倒的輝煌時光。現在，就看蔡英文能否有足夠的瞻矚和智慧自我調整，如果不能，她恐怕只能選擇向陳水扁路線偏倚，而那恐怕就是台灣更大的災厄。

第一項指標，是林全會不會變成「唐飛第二」。儘管獨派連續砲打林全，蔡英文應不至於立即將林全當成犧牲供品；原因是，其一，林全和蔡英文比較像是夥伴關係，與唐飛之於陳水扁是「客卿」及「擋箭牌」關係大不相同；其二，拋棄林全，蔡英文手中恐怕也沒有第二張好牌可打，情況只會更為棘手。何況，當年陳水扁搬開唐飛這塊「大石頭」之後，他夸夸其談的「全民政府」和「新中間路線」也就圖窮匕現，一路破功。蔡英文大概不會奉這種失敗的經驗為師。

第二個指標，是蔡英文有沒有能力解決「蔡林政府」和「民進黨政府」之間「形影脫離」的關係。上任以來，蔡英文試圖在「黨」和「政」之間維持一定的並駕關係，但顯然並不成功；黨和政的扞格不僅始終存在，而且時常互相牽制。蔡英文雖安排了相當數量的年輕世代進入政府擔任機要職位，卻未發揮潤滑效用。簡言之，目前蔡政府的人事結構，無法順利推動偌大的國家機器，因此難以滿足人民的期待。就這點而言，即使不撤換林全，內閣人事也有必要再作結構上的強化；否則，蔡政府就會不斷出現「尾巴搖狗」現象，一直被極端勢力牽著走。

第三個指標，是蔡英文對自己路線和能力的反省。林全內閣表現雖然讓人失望，但綠營點名應該下台的首長，包括國防部、外交部、陸委會等，其實都是總統直接指揮的部會。這究竟是政治屬性的問題，還是元首決策品質欠佳，必須加以區辨。事實上，上任百日來，蔡英文直接或間接地插手各種大小事務，不僅導致權責混淆，更是治絲益棼。其中，包括對若干公民團體或社運團體的過度傾俯，已到了踰越法治及破壞體制的地步；表面上雖收拾了一個眼前問題，卻可能帶來無窮後遺症，也讓施政公平愈發難以落實。蔡英文在相當程度上是靠著公民運動之助而取得政權，因此願意勤於回饋；然而，如果要塑造健全的公民社會，卻不斷向法制鑿洞，結果必將功虧一簣。

吳澧培的明天，當然不會是蔡英文的明天；而蔡英文的明天，當然也不僅繫於林全的去留。綠營或獨派到底想要什麼樣的政府，他們其實也說不清楚；但是，仔細盤點一下蔡英文執政百日的功過，這顯然不是走回「綠色大一統」的路線即能解決。蔡英文如果不想執政顛顛簸簸一路下滑，她得想清楚誰在牽著自己的鼻子走。