United Daily News Editorial (Taipei, Taiwan, ROC)
A Translation
August 26, 2016
Executive Summary: Leaders on Taiwan must understand the global situation. If they frighten themselves to death with "united front" boogeymen, they are merely incarcerating themselves. Sha Hailin cannot form a united front against anyone. But if leaders on Taiwan continue making hairpin turns, they will make prisoners of us all.
Full Text Below:
Sha Hailin, Minister of the Shanghai City United Front, arrived in Taipei to participate in the Twin Cities Forum. The term "united front" is being blown up beyond all proportion. Sha Hailin's arrival on Taiwan is being spun as a conspiracy with Ko Wen-je against their common enemy Tsai Ing-wen. But this reads far too much into it. Viewing the cross-Strait situation in isolation from world events inevitably leads to misinterpretations.
The rise of Mainland China in the 21st century is irreversible. The 2001 collision between Mainland Chinese and US warplanes constituted a microcosmic version of the new global power struggle. To avoid triggering global concern over the coming years, Chinese Communist Party leader Hu Jintao advanced his "peaceful rise" theory as a theoretical framework for the world's future power structure.
The term "peaceful rise" was later changed to "peaceful development" to underscore the Mainland's lack of hegemonic ambitions. This strategic label was later applied to cross-Strait relations, to highlight the unique history of cross-Strait relations over the past half-century. Divided rule and historic grievances were put into a larger strategic framework. They became local matters not fondly remembered by Zhongnanhai.
Just before Tsai Ing-wen was elected, Xi Jinping reaffirmed the 1992 Consensus. This was why. During last year's Ma Xi summit, Xi Jinping laid out the rules of the game. During Tsai Ing-wen's inauguration, she trotted out the ROC Constitution, and the Regulations Governing the Relations between the People of the Taiwan Area and the People of the Mainland China Area. But Beijing's rules of the game remained exactly the same. Beijing repeatedly demanded that she respond more fully. One reason for this, was fundamental changes in the global strategic picture.
Xi Jinping's opponent is not Tsai Ing-wen, but strategic opponent Barack Obama, or next year's Donald Trump, Hillary Clinton, or Shinzo Abe. The CCP has no need to win over Ko Wen-je. It does not need Ko as leverage over Tsai Ing-wen. The US and Japan are hardly the only ones who can make Tsai Ing-wen flip.
Tsai Ing-wen was Lee Teng-hui's ghost writer. She was the actual author of the previous century's "two states theory”. Seventeen years later, she has become president. During her inauguration she pledged to conduct cross-Strait relations in accordance with the "one China" oriented ROC Constitution. Leave aside the fact that many of her supporters are members of the anti-Mainland, “natural Taiwan independence” oriented Sunflower Student Movement from two years ago. The fact is the Tsai government has been boxed in by the rise of Mainland China.
This is Tsai Ing-wen's dilemma. Changes in the global political and economic order have pushed Taiwan to margins. That was why Tsai confidant James Huang characterized Taiwan as an "ant". Tsai Ing-wen is attempting to cast herself as an anti-China [sic], pro-American, pro-Japan fellow traveler. She is hoping to blaze a new trail. But having been in power 100 days, Tsai Ing-wen and her administration remain trapped on a perilous beachhead, crying out in agony.
The Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement (TPP) Tsai Ing-wen llongs for may be stillborn. Even many in the US oppose it. The New Southern Strategy is a castle in the air. As a result, the government has been forced to extend an olive branch to Beijing, in a gesture of goodwill. All roads to the outside have been blocked or severed. Export figures are not expected to improve. The economy is in a downward spiral. On top of which, Tsai remains a hostage of Taiwan independence forces. She flagrantly rejects the 1992 Consensus, the key to cross-Strait political consensus. Cause and effect are abundantly clear.
Sha Hailin is merely a member of the Shanghai City United Front. When Ma Ying-jeou was in power, such exchanges drew little attention. But Tsai Ing-wen has been in office 100 days. Sha has become the focus of DPP heavyweights. Is this not ironic? The spectre of a "united front" still haunts them. Is this not laughable? It is as if the Berlin Wall has yet to fall, and the Iron Curtain still stands. Taiwan remains trapped in a time warp, and refuses to move forward. Is this not pitiful?
The term "united front" is a term from the previous century. So too is the term "Taiwan independence". The DPP has never leveled with the people. It has never told them that "Taiwan independence" is an outmoded concept, a Cold War era view of the world. Why else would Tsai Ing-wen embrace overlapping sovereignty over the South China Sea and Chinese owned islands?
Leaders on Taiwan must understand the global situation. If they frighten themselves to death with "united front" boogeymen, they are merely incarcerating themselves. Sha Hailin cannot form a united front against anyone. But if leaders on Taiwan continue making hairpin turns, they will make prisoners of us all.
聯合／「統戰」或「自囚」：台灣的政治迷惘
2016-08-26 01:15 聯合報 聯合報社論
上海市委統戰部長沙海林到台北出席「雙城論壇」，「統戰」的頭銜成了巧妙的借喻，恍似沙海林特地來台出席「雙城論壇」，就是為與柯文哲形成所謂「統一戰線」，以對抗共同的敵人蔡英文。但這文章未免作得太大、太遠，彷彿兩岸形勢可以孤空地自世局剝離，當然會失去真貌。
中國崛起自廿一世紀即成為無法逆阻的趨勢，二○○一年的中美撞機事件，即是新世紀全球權力新圖像的一個縮影。為避免引發全球的過度疑慮，隔年接下中共領導班子的胡錦濤提出了「和平崛起」論，為未來的世界權力結構，預為理論部署。
「和平崛起」其後被刻意潤飾成「和平發展」，強調中國並不追求霸權；而這塊全球戰略標籤更進一步被用於兩岸關係上，從而凸顯兩岸關係已從過去半世紀分裂的獨特歷史情仇，被放進全球戰略脈絡之下，成為一個中南海並不十分眷念的局部事務。
這個背景，正是習近平在蔡英文當選以前迄今，不曾從「九二共識」這個前提上退守的底氣所在。他在去年「馬習會」就定下這根「定海神針」，直至蔡英文就職演說搬出中華民國憲法與兩岸人民關係條例，北京的指標尺度依然寸步不移，一再要求蔡英文完成未完成的答卷。其中原因，正是因為全球戰略格局已經產生根本性的改變所致。
亦即，習近平的對弈者，並不是蔡英文，而是歐巴馬、或是明年的川普、希拉蕊，以及安倍等的全球戰略對手。中共其實並不需要刻意籠絡柯文哲，不需要以柯作為槓桿，以求扳動蔡英文。能扳動蔡英文者，豈非只有美、日？
蔡英文作為上世紀末的李登輝「兩國論」幕後的原創者，卻在十七年後自己當上了總統，就職時宣示她將依循其內涵與本質皆為「一個中國」的中華民國憲法處理兩岸關係。且不論她的支持者中，或有相當比例是兩年前太陽花運動中的反中天然獨世代，但就大局而言，蔡政府畢竟受到這一「中國崛起」的現實潮流所框定與制約。
然而，這也正是蔡英文的困境。在全球不斷變動中的政經秩序下，台灣儼然已被世界擠至邊陲，她的親信黃志芳才會把台灣自比為「螞蟻」。蔡英文試圖以她自己編製的遠中、親美、附日的權力路線另闢蹊徑，探索出一片新的海洋，但執政百日將屆，蔡英文團隊卻猶仍深陷惶恐灘頭，大嘆零丁。
如今蔡英文的處境是：她所寄望的跨太平洋夥伴協定（ＴＰＰ）已有胎死腹中之虞，連美國自己內部都群聲反對；新南向政策亦不過是海市蜃樓，於是被迫要向北京遞出橄欖枝，冀圖對岸的善意。而當外圍的通路與連結都在逐次失效與斷絕的情境之下，出口數字更看不到翻紅的契機，整個經濟已然緩緩陷入緊縮的循環。這些，皆與她受到獨派牽制，悍然推拒兩岸政治最重要支撐即「九二共識」，所造成的後果與效應。
沙海林只是上海市委的一位常委，在馬英九主政時期若來交流可能不會引起太多注意，但在蔡英文主政未及百日的此際，卻成為全台聚焦的一位重量級官員，豈不令人深感反諷？而所謂「統戰」幽靈在台飄盪的指控，又怎不讓人啞然失笑？這樣的視角，彷彿處在柏林圍牆猶未倒塌、冷戰鐵幕依然矗立的時空，那種台灣猶留在歷史隧道裡遲遲不願昂藏前行的畏縮，令人感到深沉的悲哀。
「統戰」已是舊世紀的名詞，「台獨」亦然。民進黨未曾告訴人民的是，「台獨」是以冷戰的舊思維與框架去看待世界，所炮製出來的過時主張；否則，蔡英文面對南海仲裁結果，何必依然擁抱與中國主權重疊的南海諸島？
台灣若不能看穿全球現勢，卻用「統戰」自我恫嚇，其實只是在進行「自囚」。沙海林統戰不了誰，但台灣若只在髮夾彎裡打轉，卻可以把自己活活困死。
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