Collective Silence Among Taiwan Independence Elders

Collective Silence Among Taiwan Independence Elders
China Times Editorial (Taipei, Taiwan, ROC) 
A Translation 
December 28, 2016

Executive Summary: The DPP, and in particular Taiwan independence elders, have a better understanding of the trilateral relationship between the United States, Mainland China, and Taiwan than the masses. Naturally they have a better understanding of the impossibility of Taiwan independence. They know they cannot achieve it. The reason has nothing to do with ideals, and everything to do with personal power and special interests. They have no objection to sacrificing Taiwan's future and cross-Strait peace for their own selfish interests. Fortunately, we have entered an era of great change. Many black swans have appeared. The global picture is changing. This has revealed much of this hypocrisy for what it is.

Full Text Below:

President Tsai has been in office for a while now. The blue camp is very unhappy with her. Even the green camp has blasted her relentlessly. Of course the latter have entirely different reasons for their discontent. They have no desire to replace her. They are merely unhappy with her policy of "maintaining the status quo". That is not what they want. More importantly, Ms. Tsai has appointed large numbers of bureaucrats, many of whom hail from the blue camp, or are “Mainlanders”. This has angered Taiwan independence elders, who denounce them as “Old Blue Males”. Put simply, the Tsai Ying-wen government is insufficiently committed to the cause of Taiwan independence for their tastes.

Paradoxically however, President Tsai successfully phoned US President-elect Donald Trump. Trump later issued a series of challenges to the US government's one China policy. Logically speaking, Taiwan independence elements should be dancing with joy. But they were unusually low-keyed. In fact, news of the the "Tsai Trump phone call" provoked intense debate. Many assumed that the incoming Republican government would change China policy and provide Taiwan with new opportunities. But this enthusiasm quickly evaporated. Taiwan independence elder Wu Li-pei may have told reporters he didn't mind being America's pawn. But others remained silent.

What accounts for this strange phenomenon? The explanation is simple. Many have warned that if Taiwan is reduced to a bargaining chip between the United States and the Mainland, or a pawn in the United States' attempt to “contain” the Mainland, the first victim will be Taiwan. Republican government policy toward China has conistently started hard but ended soft, started hostile but ended friendly. More importantly, Trump is a businessman. He is likely to use Taiwan as a bargaining chip in order reach a deal with the Mainland, and win concessions or cooperation from the Mainland on other issues. Most people on Taiwan have noticed that Trump himself came right out and said as much on Twitter.

Today's Taiwan independence movement has a distinguishing characteristic. It is led by people knowledgeable about the United States, and chummy with the United States. These people differ from earlier Taiwan independence advocates, who were Japanese imperial subjects. Today the most influential Taiwan independence elders are those who have studied and worked in the United States. They had successful careers in the United States. They also have many political contacts. They have studied the United States' cross-Strait policy in-depth. They have a clear understanding of the one China policy. Therefore, when Trump issued a series of reckless statements, they were keenly aware of the dangers.

When Obama came out and reiterated the US government's long held stance on the Taiwan issue, these Taiwan indepdence elders did not make a peep. They knew these developments would have a serious impact on their pursuit of Taiwan independence. They knew that the United States' cross-Strait position includes maintaining the status quo, strategic ambiguity, and even open opposition to Taiwan independence. It also includes ensuring Taiwan's autonomy. This autonomy enables Taiwan's autonomy to pass for sovereignty, and to defy the Mainland's goal of reunification. Trump's approach has shattered the tacit understanding underlying the triangular relationship between the United States, Mainland China, and Taiwan. It as forced Obama to stand up and eliminate the ambiguity. This is not good for Taiwan, which has benefited from strategic ambiguity. Taiwan independence elders understand this paradoxical situation better than anyone.

President Tsai has a similar understanding. Following  the Tsai Trump phone call, she exercised considerable restraint. She urged DPP legislators to cool their rhetoric, and not exaggerate the significance of the phone call. She was aware of the possible consequences, especially the reaction from the Mainland. She knew the United States would lose the benefit of strategic ambiguity. From this perspective, President Tsai and Taiwan independence elders understand each other perfectly.

If that is the case, why are Taiwan independence elders so unhappy with the Tsai administration? Why are they openly criticizing her? Since President Tsai was elected, a series of events have left them frustrated. Taiwan independence elders assumed that as long as they remained steadfast in their support for Taiwan independence and the DPP, they would be on the receiving end of government patronage. But lo and behold, President Tsai's concern for continuity of government, led her to rehire so-called "Old Blue Males". This of course, undermined the Taiwan independence elders' interests, and led to inevitable discord.

But isn't this the way it has always been with the DPP? The DPP has used Taiwan independence. It has incited internal conflict over reunification vs. independence. It has used so-called “ethnic” opposition to win votes. Every time an election has rolled around it has done so without fail. It simply cannot hold itself back. But when the KMT echoes its claims, or even raises the ante, the DPP shows its true colors. The DPP has flip-flopped repeatedly on amending the “referendum law". This parallels the Taiwan independence elders' ambivalence in the face of Trump's words and deeds.

In other words, the DPP, and in particular Taiwan independence elders, have a better understanding of the trilateral relationship between the United States, Mainland China, and Taiwan than the masses. Naturally they have a better understanding of the impossibility of Taiwan independence. They know they cannot achieve it. The reason has nothing to do with ideals, and everything to do with personal power and special interests. They have no objection to sacrificing Taiwan's future and cross-Strait peace for their own selfish interests. Fortunately, we have entered an era of great change. Many black swans have appeared. The global picture is changing. This has revealed much of this hypocrisy for what it is.

集體沉默的台獨大老們
2016/12/28 中國時報

蔡總統就任以來，不但藍營對她深深不滿，連綠營內部都批評不斷，當然後者的出發點還不至於想取而代之，而是認為「維持現狀」政策不能代表他們的真實想法。更重要的是，在人事安排上，蔡總統任用大量官僚體系出身者，其中很多不是有藍營背景就是外省人，讓獨派大為光火，所謂「老藍男」的指摘，也是出自這些人之口。簡單說，獨派認為蔡英文政府「不夠獨」。

弔詭的是，當蔡總統與美國總統當選人川普成功通話，接著川普還發表一系列質疑美國一中政策的言論，照理說，獨派應該興高采烈隨之起舞，但這段時間，獨派卻異常低調。事實上，「英川通話」訊息一出，台灣內部確曾激起一陣熱議，很多人認為未來共和黨政府將會調整中國政策，將是台灣的機會。但這股風潮很快就被平息下去，除了獨派大老吳澧培在接受採訪時說出不反對當美國的棋子以外，其他人多保持沉默。

為什麼會出現如此奇怪的現象？其原因並不難理解，很多人已經提出警告，認為若台灣真的成為美國與大陸談判的籌碼，或者充當美國對抗大陸的棋子，首當其衝受害的當然只能是台灣。這不僅是因為共和黨政府歷來對中政策都會走過先硬後軟、先敵對後友好的路徑，更重要的是，川普的商人性格讓其更傾向於拿台灣來與大陸做交易，來爭取大陸在其他問題上的讓步或者配合，最讓台灣人有感的是，川普本人在社交平台上已經用近乎直白的語言指陳此事。

台灣獨派有一大特色，那就是知美派或者親美派當道，與最早期帶有濃厚日本皇民色彩的獨派不同，現在檯面上分量較高的獨派大老，通常都有美國的求學和事業背景，不僅在美國事業有成，也在美國政壇擁有大量人脈，對美國的兩岸政策也有著深入的鑽研，因而對美國的一中政策也有著清楚的認知。因此，當川普出現一系列暴衝言行後，他們也都能敏銳地意識到危機所在。

甚至歐巴馬站出來詳細闡述美國政府對台灣問題的一貫主張時，即便知道這對他們追求台獨的想法會有嚴重衝擊，他們也並未多置一詞。他們知道，美國對兩岸議題的態度就是維持現狀、戰略模糊，即便明言反對台獨，但美國政府也在實際動作上支持台灣的自主權不受侵犯，這也讓台灣得以擁有足夠的空間將這種自主權闡釋成為主權，以便與大陸的統一訴求相抗衡。但川普的作法打破了這一默契，導致了美、中、台三邊微妙關係的公開化，迫使歐巴馬不得不站出來打破這種模糊，這對從模糊中受益的台灣來說當然不是什麼好事。這一弔詭的演變過程，獨派恐怕比誰都更加了解。

蔡總統與他們的認知頗為類似，所以「英川通話」之後，蔡總統保持了高度的克制，並要求黨籍立委降低調門，不要過度宣揚此次通話的意義，也正是因為意識到危機的可能性，特別是來自大陸的反制，會讓美方失去過去的模糊空間。從這個角度看，蔡總統與獨派是有著充分的默契。

既然如此，為何獨派又表現出對蔡總統施政的強烈不滿，甚至不惜公開加以批評。從蔡總統勝選以來，包括近來的一系列表現來看，獨派恐怕只是醉翁之意不在酒，一直以來的台獨主張看似堅定不移，其實不過是他們爭取權力的憑藉，在他們看來，牢牢站穩獨派立場，並充當民進黨執政的基本盤，就可以獲得執政後的人事資源，而蔡總統出於穩定執政的考量，重用所謂「老藍男」，當然就損害到他們的利益，雙方有所齟齬也就在所難免。

而獨派的這些作法難道不正是民進黨一直以來的路數嗎？民進黨以訴諸台獨的立場，引爆台灣內部統獨之爭來升高族群對立，以達到凝聚更多選票的目的，每次選舉都屢試不爽，但當國民黨技術性地附和他們的主張，甚至要往前推一把時，他們的真面目就暴露出來，《公投法》修正議題上民進黨的進退失據，其實同樣可解釋獨派大老面對川普言行的糾結。

換言之，比起追隨他們的普羅大眾，民進黨特別是獨派大老們對當下美、中、台三邊關係了解得更為深入，對台獨的不可能性也當然知之甚詳，但明知不可為而為之，不是因為什麼理想，而終究是權力和利益的紛爭。只是他們為了自己的權與利，而不惜犧牲台灣的發展前途及兩岸關係的光明前景，未免過於自私了一些。好在如今已進入大變革的時代，許多黑天鵝的出現在讓世界格局處於變動的同時，也讓許多虛偽矯飾無所遁形。