United Daily News Editorial (Taipei, Taiwan, ROC)
A Translation
December 13, 2016
Executive Summary: The Trump Tsai phone call thrilled everyone within the DPP. But the Tsai government must realize that no amount of political stimulants can unfreeze Taiwan's economy. If President Tsai refuses to change her political posture, and the DPP refuses to change its brazenly self-serving ways, but instead sets political wildfires everywhere it goes, the public will turn its back on them in short order. People are tightening their belts. Businesses are struggling to stay afloat. Meanwhile the ruling party bickers over who will be appointed to what position of power. One cannot help asking, just who was the third change in ruling parties for?
Full Text Below:
Frankly, we have no idea whether the Lin Chuan cabinet can be considered a “cabinet comprised of financial and economic experts”. For the past half year, it has shown hardly any financial or economic pronouncements. Amidst wave after wave of political proclamations, the entire cabinet has been demoted to the status of “gofer” for the Presidential Office. On the one hand, it must take orders from the DPP legislative caucus. On the other hand, it must be the whipping boy for Taiwan independence elders. The cabinet is even finding it difficult to serve as gatekeeper, let alone act on its own initiative. The smile on Lin Chuan's face remains. But the cabinet's fumbling reveals its enervated state.
Looking back over the past seven months, it is clear that Taiwan has been wracked by internal and external strife. Cross-Strait relations have been frozen. South China Sea arbitration has failed. Labor has gone on strike. Protests follow, one after another. Businesses have closed. Disputes rage over the importation of food products from Japan's nuclear disaster areas. The recent Trump Tsai phone call even led to PLA Air Force planes circling Taiwan. Not a day goes by without public anxiety, unease, and suspicions. Yet despite this political wildfire, the government has done nothing to address people's economic plight. The economy remains frozen. The problem is that when the new government came to power, it single-mindedly promoted its own political agenda. It was utterly indifferent to the people's livelihood and their economic future. The inevitable result was the president's poll numbers went straight down.
Tsai Ying-lin trusted and relied on the Lin Chuan cabinet. The cabinet ought to enjoy ample latitude. So why in actual practice has the Lin Chuan cabinet become so passive, even irrelevant? There are three reasons.
Reason One. Lin is too weak. In the face of Tsai Ying-wen's strong leadership and DPP special interests, he has lost almost all initiative and will. It is all he can do to be carried along by political currents, while bobbing up and down in the waves. Other cabinet members are limited by their lack of experience and insight, or cowed by DPP political flak. They dare not advance their own ideas. This reflects the authoritarian structure of the Tsai regime and the aggressive nature of the DPP. The "old blue men" elements within the Lin cabinet are merely scapegoats.
Reason Two. Tsai Ying-wen lacks any sense of how to lead the nation. The moment the president came to power, she immediately rewrote cross-Strait relations. Internally, she rummaged through old records in order to settle old scores. She hastily pandered to the United States and Japan and sundry Social Justice Warriors. Under the circumstances, Taiwan's economy and the people's livelihood were naturally relegated to the bottom of her to do list. For the past seven months, the cabinet has been busy implementing President Tsai's policies, then struggling to clean up the mess they left behind. Where is she going to find time to revitalize the economy?
Reason Three. The Democratic Progressive Party considers itself more important than the nation. When considering fiscal matters, it is more concerned with how to benefit the party than the people's livelihood or the interests of the nation. Recently, major public works projects planned by the Tsai government include moving the Taoyuan Railway underground, raising the Chiayi Railway above ground, building the Taichung Shanshou Line and the Lugang Historical Scenic Area. Every one of these projects is in a county or city ruled by the DPP. These projects cost hundreds of billions of dollars. Yet the decisions were made in haste. The amount of economic momentum they have generated is questionable. Another example is the rise in produce prices after typhoons. The DPP thought only about how to acquire the rights to operate fruit and vegetable companies, not how bring down the price of fruits and vegetables. With such a selfish attitude, how can it possibly think about the future of Taiwan's economy?
Taiwan's economy faces two major variables. Variable One. Cross-Strait relations have been flash frozen. The result has been greatly reduced Mainland tourism, leading to a tourism industry recession. The tourism industry is suffering. TransAsia Airways has exited the industry. The DPP is reaping what it sowed. Beijing has recently increased pressure on large corporations, and even resorted to saber rattling. It is difficult to be optimistic. Variable Two. Donald Trump is inciting the rise of international trade protectionism. Leave aside the stilborn TPP for the moment. Taiwan's foreign trade will face more stringent challenges. The Tsai government's "New Southern Strategy" has yet to be implemented. Its Five Major Innovative Industries initiative, plus New Agriculture and the Recirculating Economy, remain paper projects. It is unlikely that over the next two years, the people will actually feel any benefits. This is probably the main reason for President Tsai's drop in popularity.
The Trump Tsai phone call thrilled everyone within the DPP. But the Tsai government must realize that no amount of political stimulants can unfreeze Taiwan's economy. If President Tsai refuses to change her political posture, and the DPP refuses to change its brazenly self-serving ways, but instead sets political wildfires everywhere it goes, the public will turn its back on them in short order. People are tightening their belts. Businesses are struggling to stay afloat. Meanwhile the ruling party bickers over who will be appointed to what position of power. One cannot help asking, just who was the third change in ruling parties for?
政治野火旺，經濟放冷灶
2016-12-14 聯合報
老實說，我們不知道林全內閣到底算不算「財經內閣」，因為半年多來，民眾幾乎看不到什麼財經作為。在一波又一波的政治喧囂中，整個內閣幾淪為總統府的「行政執行處」，這一頭受民進黨立院黨團使喚，那一頭被獨派大老當成出氣包；內閣連基本把關的守勢都難以維持，遑論主動出擊。儘管林全臉上的微笑沒有消失，對照紛亂的行政步調，不免顯得虛弱。
回顧過去七個月，台灣內外紛擾不斷。從兩岸關係急凍、南海仲裁失利、勞工罷工及抗爭不斷、企業關門收攤、日本核食進口爭議，乃至最近川蔡通話引發的共機繞台風波，民眾幾乎無日不在焦慮、不安、猜疑中度過。然而，在這片燎原的政治野火中，大家卻看不到政府對經濟民生事務有任何著墨，經濟仍是一口冷灶。問題是，新政府上台，若一心一意炒作自己屬意的政治議題，對人民生活及經濟前景毫無關注，總統的民調直直落，恐怕是必然的結果。
以蔡英文對林全的信賴和倚重，照理說，內閣應該不是沒有發揮的空間。但是，為什麼在實際運作中，林內閣的表現卻顯得如此消極與被動，甚至不著邊際？其中原因，可以從三點觀察。
其一，林全的政治性格太弱，在面對蔡英文的強勢領導及民進黨的利益掛帥下，幾乎完全失去了主動的意志，只能被政治議題帶著走，在其間載沉載浮。至於其他閣員，或受限於經驗和見識，或被民進黨的政治砲火震懾，更不敢提出自己的主張。這種情況，其實是蔡政府的威權結構與民進黨的好鬥性格使然，林內閣的「老藍男」成分只是代罪羔羊罷了。
其二，蔡英文的決策領導，缺乏本末先後的治國瞻矚。總統一上台，不僅立刻改寫兩岸關係，內政上什麼陳年舊帳都要翻箱倒櫃掏出來清算，還要忙著討好美日及各路社運團體。在這種情況下，台灣經濟和人民生活的議題，當然就被排到施政議程表的尾巴去了。試想，過去七個月，內閣光是忙著執行蔡總統決策及收拾其善後都來不及，哪有餘裕思考振興經濟之道？
其三，民進黨「黨大於國」的政治思維，對財經議題的思考向以如何「有利於自己」為先，而不是考慮民生或國家。最近蔡政府規畫的一些重大公共建設，包括桃園鐵路地下化、嘉義鐵路高架化、台中山手線、鹿港歷史風景區，幾無例外都落在民進黨執政縣市。這些工程動輒耗資上千億，在決策草率下，能創造什麼經濟動能，令人高度存疑。再如颱風後的菜價上漲問題，民進黨想到的，竟只是如何把果菜公司的經營權搶到手，而不是如何把菜價平抑下去。這種只圖近利的自私心態，又如何會想到台灣經濟的未來？
台灣經濟面對的是兩大變數：一是兩岸關係急凍，導致陸客大減及觀光產業衰退，旅遊業叫苦、復興航空解散，惡果已現。最近，中共更逐漸將壓力對準大企業，且動用軍事威嚇，前景難以樂觀。第二，是川普帶動的國際貿易保護主義興起，撇開ＴＰＰ破局不談，台灣對外貿易將遭遇更嚴苛的挑戰。蔡政府的「新南向」政策迄今未見開展，五大創新產業雖加上「新農業」和「循環經濟」兩項，也仍然只是紙上作業，未來兩年內，恐怕都無法讓人民對振興經濟「有感」。這點，恐怕才是蔡總統民意直落最大的罩門。
最近川蔡通話雖讓民進黨上下一陣振奮，但冷靜下來之後，蔡政府應該意識到：再多的政治「興奮劑」，其實已治不了台灣經濟的冷感症候群。蔡總統若不重新整理她自己的主政步調，民進黨如果不收斂自利的驕兵嘴臉，卻每天在那裡以燃放政治野火為樂，很快就會被人民厭棄。人民都在勒緊褲帶，商家都在苦撐待變，卻只見執政黨在那裡爭官封位，不可一世；試問：第三度政黨輪替，究竟為了誰？
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