Trump Tsai Fever: Enjoy the Moment Before the Bubble Bursts

Trump Tsai Fever: Enjoy the Moment Before the Bubble Bursts
United Daily News Editorial (Taipei, Taiwan, ROC) 
A Translation 
December 7, 2016

Executive Summary: Trump is arrogant and egotistical. Under his administration, the US will probably lack a clear and stable policy stance. He may adopt a confrontational strategy against the Mainland. He may provide Taiwan with a little more international breathing room. But his opportunism and caprice could result in him abandoning Taiwan at any time. Taiwan must assess the situation. It must take note of trends. It must not be reduced to a bubble in a breaking wave.

Full Text Below:

Tsai Ying-wen and Donald Trump spoke over the phone, and provoke a firestorm among the US, the Mainland, and Taiwan. Two things are certain. One. The Trump administration is a loose cannon, and does not care whether it collides head on with Mainland China. Two. Trump has no intention of following Obama's Asian-Pacific policy. Washington's diplomatic conventions mean nothing to him. So the next question is: What role does Taiwan play in this picture, and how can it derive the most benefit?

The Trump Tsai phone call provoked intense international concern. First impressions
suggest that it was a diplomatic victory for Taiwan. One. It raised Taiwan's international profile. Two. It established a channel for future communication with the new Trump administration. Three. The subsequent tug of war between the US and the Mainland give Taiwan an extra chip in cross-Strait relations. These can be considered positive developments.

But the person responsible for this Trump Tsai Fever is wild man Donald Trump. People everywhere remain skeptical about his consistency and the potential consequences of the incident. The key is whether Trump consciously used Taiwan to provoke the Mainland, or whether he was steered wrong by aides. Trump is reckless and often repeats the same mistakes. He has the instincts of a businessman. His support for Taiwan will not be based on considerations of justice. It will be based solely on calculations of advantage. If we wish to talk about advantages, the Mainland can provide thousands of times the advantages of Taiwan. This is a reality the Tsai government must acknowledge.

Consider what happened after the Trump Tsai phone call. The attitudes adopted by the US, the Mainland, and Taiwan, are intriguing. The Trump camp is still experiencing the thrill of victory. It has countered Beijing's protests head on. His economic advisers even spouted obscenities such as "F**k 'em". The Obama administration was shocked by the Trump Tsai phone call. On the one hand, it was concerned that Obama's Asian rebalancing policy would go down the drain. On the other hand, it reiterated the "one China principle" to mollify Beijing. Beijing's reaction, by contrast, was not to blame Trump, but Taiwan, for “engaging in trickery”. The PRC Ministry of Foreign Affairs even asked Washington to deny Tsai transit privileges when she visits Nicaragua next month. Tsai told an American reporter that the phone call was merely a reflection of Taiwan's respect for the US elections, and did not represent any change in policy.

The DPP was initially elated. But Tsai Ing-wen has turned low-key. Clearly invisible diplomatic pressures have been brought to bear. Three days ago, Tsai's visit to Nicaragua and three other nations was supposed to transit New York. Political pundits speculated that she might even meet with Trump. The latest news however, is that she will not transit New York, but Houston and San Francisco instead. There will be no Trump Tsai meeting. The reason should not be hard to imagine. The current US president is Barack Obama. Before the official handover, Washington is not about to allow a replay of the Trump Tsai phone call that undermines Obama's authority ahead of schedule.

What worries many in the political world is that Beijing may not stop at interfering with Tsai's trip to Central America. They may take revenge and embarrass her. They may turn ROC diplomatic allies. Nicaragua in particular, may change diplomatic recognition from Taipei to Beijing. If not for the Ma government's diplomatic truce, it would have recognized Beijing already. Therefore, the Tsai government must maintain a low profile. Otherwise, a phone call and less than a day's euphoria, may result in a string of retaliatory moves whose cost are not worth the candle.

Taiwan's prolonged diplomatic isolation has led some to use a points system or shallow pro forma ritual to tally wins and losses. For example: What title was given to some representative from Taiwan taking part in some international activity? How many national flags were displayed during some international event? Whom did James Soong meet and greet at APEC? Which cities did the president transit? Such petty pro forma gains and losses, sway popular sentiment again and again. Such clashes are not unimportant. But in terms of the ROC's survival and development, their form outweighs their substance. Far more important is strategy. Do we have a strategy that is more inclusive, one that is more politically and economically sophisticated, and more indicative of the nation's progress? We need a strategy that is less prone to intimidation, frustration, or incitement. This is why we have repeatedly stressed that cross-Strait policy is so important.

Trump is arrogant and egotistical. Under his administration, the US will probably lack a clear and stable policy stance. He may adopt a confrontational strategy against the Mainland. He may provide Taiwan with a little more international breathing room. But his opportunism and caprice could result in him abandoning Taiwan at any time. Taiwan must assess the situation. It must take note of trends. It must not be reduced to a bubble in a breaking wave.

川蔡熱：抓穩潮流，勿成泡沫
2016-12-08 聯合報

蔡英文和川普一通電話，在美中台之間捲起千堆雪。可以確定的有二：一是川普及其團隊是「自走砲」作風，根本不在乎與中共正面衝突；二是川普完全無意追隨歐巴馬的亞太政策，華府那一套外交規範也管不住川普團隊。接下來要問的是：台灣在這樣的變局中，該如何抓住自己的角色和利益？

從第一印象看，「川蔡電」引起如此熱烈的國際關注，對台灣而言，這次外交出擊可謂斬獲不菲。包括：第一，放大了台灣的能見度；第二，建立了未來與川普新政府溝通的管道；第三，由於美中的拉扯，或使台灣在兩岸關係中有出現新空間的機會。這些，都可說是正面的成果。

然而，正因為煽起這次「川蔡熱」效應的主角是狂人川普，儘管野火狂燒，各界對這種操作的一致性及可能後果不免抱持懷疑。其中關鍵，不在川普是否有意識地利用台灣向中共挑釁，或者他是否受到幕僚誤導；而在他過度輕率且易於反覆的性格，加上其商人本能的利益取向，他對台灣的支持絕對不會有「義」的考量，而將只有「利」的盤算。而若要談利，中國大陸能夠提供的誘因，絕對比台灣大上千百倍。這點，是蔡政府必須認清的現實。

觀察川蔡通話後的發展，美中台三方的態度均堪玩味。川普陣營方面始終未脫亢奮狀態，對北京的抗議直接反擊，其經濟顧問更粗話開罵「去他的」。歐巴馬政府則對川蔡通電難掩震驚，一方面憂心歐巴馬的亞洲再平衡政策將盡付東流，一方面則不斷重申「一中原則」安撫北京。相形之下，北京的反應則顯得有所選擇，並未大力指責川普，卻歸咎「台灣搞小動作」，中共外交部甚至進一步要求華府勿讓蔡英文下月出訪尼加拉瓜時過境美國。至於蔡英文，則在接受美國記者訪問時說，那通電話只是表達台灣對美國選舉的尊重，並不代表政策轉變；言下，顯得相當保留。

從民進黨第一時間的喜不自勝，到蔡英文後來轉為低調，可以窺知看不見的外交壓力已經泉湧而至。三日前，蔡英文出訪尼加拉瓜等三國的行程原稱要「過境紐約」，政壇甚至猜測她將在那裡會見川普。最新的消息則說，她不會過境紐約，而是過境休士頓和舊金山，同時也不會有「川蔡會」。這樣的變化應是不難想像：目前美國還是歐巴馬當家，在正式交接之前，華府當然不會讓「川蔡電」的意外重演，讓歐巴馬提前破功。

更讓政界擔心的，是中共除了干擾蔡英文的中美洲行程，會不會下重手以「奪取邦交」的方式作為報復，來使她難堪？尤其，尼加拉瓜近年屢傳外交生變的可能，若非馬政府的「外交休兵」政策，早就投靠對岸了。因此，蔡政府此刻除了小心為上，保持低調也是必要的。否則，為了一通電話，快樂不到一天，接下來可能要面對連串的報復，將得不償失。

長期以來，由於台灣外交上的孤立，人們似乎已習慣仰賴若干點狀或淺層的儀式交鋒來計算得失。例如：台灣代表在國際組織拿到了什麼頭銜，某場國際賽事又亮了幾面國旗，宋楚瑜在ＡＰＥＣ和誰照面，元首過境外交又前進了什麼城市；小小的形式得失，一再牽動國人的心。這類儀式性交鋒不能說不重要，但放在台灣生存發展的戰略脈絡中看，其實點綴性質大過實質。更重要的，是我們有沒有一套涵括面更大、政經縱深更厚、有效性更持久的策略，作為指引國家前進的方針，而不需要動輒因受到恐嚇、挫折、或慫恿而浮沉不定。這也是我們一再強調兩岸政策非常重要的原因所在。

以川普的自大狂暴，他主政後的美國恐怕不會有清晰、穩定的路線。他對中國採取對抗策略，或許能提供台灣多一點國際空間；但以他的投機與善變，也隨時可以棄台灣於不顧。明智之計，台灣必須審慎評估，把握潮流，但千萬小心，別淪為浪尖的泡沫。