United Daily News Editorial (Taipei, Taiwan, ROC)
A Translation
December 9, 2016
Executive Summary: Trump Tsai fever rages on. But blowback is gathering strength. The government cannot afford to look only at superficial political gains. It must pay attention to the impact of Trump's policies on our economy as well. It must respond early, in order to find a better way and to end uncertainty in Taiwan's economy.
Full Text Below:
Donald Trump will not take office for another month. Yet his election victory has already had a major impact on the global economic and political order, in many respects. The Taiwan issue was not originally a matter of concern for the incoming Trump government. But the Trump Tsai phone call blew the matter out of proportion, and upset relations between Washington, Beijing, and Taipei. For the Tsai government, the incident may be a minor diplomatic victory. But for the people, greater uncertainty in cross-Strait relations is certain to make Taiwan's economic challenges even more daunting.
Following the Trump Tsai phone call, Trump and his administration used social media to accuse Mainland China of manipulating exchange rates, dumping products in the United States, and stealing American jobs. Trump issued a series of provocations. The US media predicted that Trump would continue to opeate in this manner after taking office. US-China relations will therefore be riddled with friction and uncertainty. In other words, if the Trump Tsai phone call benefits the Tsai government, and US-China relations became tense, the Mainland will exact revenge. Taiwan will be a fish in a barrel. The result will be a short term gains at the expense of long term losses.
The response from Beijing in the wake of the Trump Tsai phone call has been restrained. That is because Beijing sees Trump as merely a "president elect", and is in no hurry for a showdown. Beijing may have exercised restraint. But affiliated organizations, including party media channels, have not held back. They are even prepared to respond to a pro-Taiwan policy on the part of Trump once he takes office. If and when it becomes necessary, Beijing will lash out at Taiwan, politically or economically. The Tsai government must not misjudge the situation.
Mainland China, which has become economically powerful in recent years, often uses economic leverage to strongarm opponents. For example, South Korea agreed to allow the United States to deploy the THAAD anti-missile system in South Korea earlier this year. Beijing launched a diplomatic counterattack. It also forbade the airing of South Korean film and television programs on the Mainland. This and other economic sanctions exerted indirect pressure on South Korea. In the case of Taiwan, Beijing often applies pressure on Taiwan businessmen at critical moments, as a form of psychological warfare. For example, just before the Anti-Secession Law was passed in 20015, Hsu Wen-lung, former chairman of Chi Mei, was pressured into to publishing an open letter in support of the CCP's Anti-Secession Law.
This practice of "using business to influence politics" was replayed this year. The star of this year's show was the Hai Pa Wang Company, owned and operated by Tsai Ing-wen's family. The company's investments on the Mainland were audited for tax evasion, and its products were investigated for failure to meet health standards. Hai Pa Wang was forced to issue a public statement saying that "both sides of the Strait are part of one China". Meanwhile, Taiwan Semiconductor Chairman Morris Chang and Giant Tour Chairman Liu Chin-piao have reportedly resigned as presidential consultants. In fact the two resigned before the Hai Pa Wang incident, and before Taiwan Affairs Office Director Zhang Zhijun said he "opposed allowing Taiwan businessmen who advocate Taiwan independence to make money on the Mainland”. In any event, these changes and cross-Strait relations have become increasingly sensitive, and are directly and indirectly linked. They will inevitably undermine public confidence in the government.
Over the past two weeks, PLA Air Force warplanes have twice circumnavigated Taiwan, indicating that Beijing's intimidation against Taiwan has escalated to military means. Such intimidation is mostly symbolic, but will only increase in the foreseeable future. Taiwan cannot afford to be optimistic or naive.
Trump has declared that he will abolish the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement (TPP). If it is replaced by bilateral economic and trade agreements, the United States is bound to exert major pressure on smaller nations, in order to reap economic and trade benefits beyond those provided by the TPP. Naturally this does not favor smaller nations. Protectionist barriers to US trade will inevitably be raised, and trade friction between the United States and China will inevitably increase. This will have a major impact on Taiwan, which remains highly dependent upon exports to the US and the Mainland. Hon Hai intends to invest in the United States. This is something the business community must do to cope with the Trump government's new economic policies.
Under the circumstances, the Tsai government must deal with the aftermath of the Trump Tsai phone call. She must minimize the impact on cross-Strait relations, and avoid harming Taiwan businessmen on the Mainland. The US will focus its attention on exports from Taiwan over the next few years. Government ministries charged with economics and finance must have a response ready during bilateral trade negotiations on everything from pork to arms purchases. The government must develop a strategy for balance of trade issues between the US and Taiwan consistent with Taiwan's best interests.
Trump Tsai fever rages on. But blowback is gathering strength. The government cannot afford to look only at superficial political gains. It must pay attention to the impact of Trump's policies on our economy as well. It must respond early, in order to find a better way and to end uncertainty in Taiwan's economy.
川蔡熱對台灣經濟是「短多長空」
2016-12-12 聯合報
川普還有一個多月才要上任，但其當選已為全球政經秩序帶來嚴重衝擊，且遍及各個領域。台灣議題原非美國新人新政的焦點，但在「川蔡通電」經放大解讀後，美中台三角關係頓時風起雲湧。對蔡政府而言，這在外交上或許有少許加分作用；但對人民而言，兩岸關係的不確定因素升高，勢必使經濟面的挑戰愈發艱鉅。
川普與蔡英文通電之後，川普與其團隊密集地利用社群網路與媒體發聲批評中國大陸操縱匯率、對美傾銷產品、搶走美國人工作等等，一連串動作皆充滿挑釁意味。美國媒體評論都認為，川普就任後若仍維持這種風格，美中關係將進入一個不確定性高、且充滿摩擦的階段。亦即，「川蔡電」雖為蔡政府加分，但美中關係若轉趨緊張，大陸一旦採取報復行動，反而可能讓台灣遭到池魚之殃，這將是「短多長空」的局面。
「川蔡電」後，北京的反應尚稱克制，因為中共認為川普目前只是「總統當選人」，不急著現在就跟他攤牌。北京政權雖然克制，但一些官方外圍組織、包括特定黨媒卻已露出口風，包括要對川普執政後可能的友台政策做好準備，必要時將在政治或經濟上打擊台灣，並警告蔡政府不要誤判情勢。
利用經濟上的優勢向對手施壓，是近年經濟崛起的中國常用的手段。例如，今年韓國同意美國在其境內部署薩德反飛彈系統，北京除在外交上給予反擊，也透過封殺韓國影視節目等經濟制裁方式，間接向韓國施壓。對於台灣，北京也常在關鍵時刻向台商施壓，以達到心理戰的目的。例如，二○○五年在台灣舉行反「反分裂國家法」遊行前，奇美前董事長許文龍被迫發表支持中共《反分裂國家法》的公開信，就是一個令人印象深刻的例子。
這類「以商逼政」的案例，今年又見重演。這次的主角，是與蔡英文家族關係密切的海霸王，該公司在大陸的投資遭到查稅，並傳出產品品質不合規定；為此，海霸王被迫在媒體上發表公開聲明，稱該公司支持「兩岸同屬一中」政策。與此同時，台積電董事長張忠謀、巨大董事長劉金標又先後傳出請辭總統府資政，儘管兩人辭職其實早在「海霸王事件」之前，也早於國台辦主任張志軍「反對支持台獨的台商到大陸賺錢」的談話；無論如何，這些變化與兩岸關係轉趨敏感都有直接間接的關聯，必然影響民眾對政府的信心。
再看，最近半個月內，共軍戰機兩度「繞台飛行」，顯示北京對台灣的威嚇行動已經「升級」，進階到軍事手段。這些恫嚇，雖然多為象徵性動作，但在未來可預見的期間內，恐怕只會升高，不會減緩，台灣似乎沒有樂觀或天真的餘地。
川普已宣稱要廢除跨太平洋夥伴協定（ＴＰＰ），若改以雙邊經貿談判取代，美方必然會以大壓小，牟取超乎ＴＰＰ條件的經貿利益，這對小國當然不利。可以預見，未來美國經貿保護主義的藩籬必然高築，美、中之間的貿易摩擦也將升高；這對高度倚賴對美、中出口的台灣，必然深受衝擊。鴻海傳出有意赴美投資，其實也是企業界因應川普新政不得不走的布局。
在這種情況下，蔡政府必須謹慎處理「川蔡電」的後續效應，以降低對兩岸關係的衝擊，同時避免大陸台商受到牽累。財經部會必須就我可能遭美方盯上的出口產業擬好應對策略，對於未來數年我與美國的雙邊經貿談判，小至美豬、大至軍購，政府也應重新擬定戰略，在美台經貿天秤上找到符合台灣發展利益的最大公約數。
「川蔡電」的熱潮還在延燒，但反撲的力道也將泉湧而至。政府不能只看到浮面的政治效應，更要留意川普新政對我國經濟的衝擊並提早因應，才能在其不確定性中幫台灣經濟找到趨吉避凶之路。
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