China Times Editorial (Taipei, Taiwan, ROC)
A Translation
December 15, 2016
Executive Summary: Former Vice President Annette Lu published an article in the China Times yesterday. She said there was no reason to be excited about the Trump Tsai phone call. On the contrary, she voiced unease, and called on President Tsai to be prepared for the storm that is about to hit. As a veteran green camp political leader, Annette Lu's reaction was level-headed. She hoped that President Tsai would "know thyself”. If Tsai is willing to be a bargaining chip for the US, she will not merely break with the Mainland, she will also have to pay the US protection money. Therefore she would be well advised to let cross-Strait problems be solved by the two sides of the Taiwan Strait.
Full Text Below:
When president elect Donald Trump openly questioned the Mainland's “one China policy” the official response from the Tsai government was quite low-key. To everyone's surprise, Taiwan independence elders were uniformly silent. Instead, it was the Western media that seemed determined to make the most of the issue, especially the New York Times, which accused Trump of provoking China over its most sensitive core interest. If he persisted, the Mainland would have many bargaining chips it could use, and Taiwan would be its first victim. The Times noted several of these. They included trade sanctions, investment slowdowns, aid to North Korea, and aid to Iran. Among these, Taiwan most fears a Mainland launched diplomatic war that deprives Taiwan of its diplomatic allies. The Mainland could also limit investments on Taiwan and the number of Mainland tourists to Taiwan, thereby undermining Taiwan's economy.
The New York Times does not support Trump. Nor has it ever hesitated to criticize the Mainland. Trump's use of the One China Policy as a bargaining chip makes people shudder. Clear-minded people know it was not exaggerating. The Mainland is fully capable of punishing Taiwan. That was never in question. The only question is whether it wants to. The Trump Tsai phone call may have given Taiwan independence elements some cheap thrills. It may have held out hope that Taiwan would become a bargaining chip the US uses to check and balance the Mainland. But the question is, at what price?
What is a bargaining chip? It is the ante a gambler puts up before a bet, in the hope of making a greater gain. The concept of bargaining chips applies in many other areas, including international politics. Bargaining chips are often viewed as units of trade among players. All this talk about bargaining chips however, presumes that Taiwan's current and future status will not determined by Taiwan itself, but by the major powers. The United States has long treated Taiwan as a bargaining chip between the Mainland and the United States. This did not begin today. It began with the outbreak of the Korean War. Taiwan became the United States' unsinkable aircraft carrier in the first island chain, part of its plan to contain the Mainland. Its fate was sealed back then. Past US presidents have allowed Taiwan to save face. Trump did not. He made Taiwan's status explicit. The situation is now abundantly clear. In the current Great Game of Nations, is Taiwan a player? Or merely a bargaining chip? If the former, then it must possess the strategic wisdom to play with others. If the latter, then all it can do is wait and hope that others will be merciful.
Do not say that Taiwan is too small, and therefore lacks the means to play among the major powers, or that it cannot afford to play. Many small nations in the world today lack even Taiwan's resources. Yet they are still able to play among the major powers. Leave aside North Korea for the moment. Singapore has less territory and fewer people than Taiwan. But who can deny its key role in the Southeast Asian Great Game? During the Chiang Ching-kuo era, the United States feared the Mainland, and refused to sell second-generation fighters to Taiwan. Old F-104 fighters crashed often, and were derided as "widow makers". Taiwan's own IDF showed the United States that Taiwan could produce its own fighters. Therefore the US sold the F-16 to Taiwan, to the benefit of US arms merchants. During the Two Chiangs era, Taiwan remained dependent upon the United States. Nevertheless it maintained its Chinese identity.
Taiwan must not resign itself to being a bargaining chip. The reason is simple. A player retains the initiative. A bargaining chip passively permits others to do with it as they will. When one is reduced to the status of a bargaining chip, do not assume that the players will feel any sympathy for you. As long as you can be traded for something more profitable, you will be. Never forget that Trump is a businessman. For businessmen, the main theme is trade. His eyes will always be focused on the interests of the United States, never on those of Taiwan. If Trump really “loved Taiwan”, he would proclaim that "Taiwan is the 51st state of the United States" and that Taiwan is protected. Is Trump about to do that?
Following the Trump Tsai phone call, Trump repeatedly railed against Mainland China. It appeared as if a sudden change had suddenly come over US-China relations. If some people on Taiwan are excited about this, their reaction can only be described as foolish. How do they know he is not merely bargaining with the Mainland? Is it not obvious Trump is using the Trump Tsai phone call as leverage, to raise the price during negotiations with the Mainland? If the Mainland is willing to pay Trump's asking price, who says the Taiwan chip will not be sacrificed and traded? The New York Times has already listed the Mainland's other chips. Has Taiwan counted its own chips? Do they really outnumber the other side's chips ?
As history can attest, numerous US presidents have loudly criticized the Mainland before taking office, and left Taiwan with high expectations. But when push came to shove, the presidents who inflicted the most damage to Taiwan, were often the ones who criticized the most loudly. Nixon, Carter, Reagan, Clinton, and Bush Jr. all did the same with the Mainland. Is Trump really going to be the lone exception? Especially since this time the outcry was the loudest. Therefore, will the injury visited upon Taiwan also be the greatest?
Former Vice President Annette Lu published an article in the China Times yesterday. She said there was no reason to be excited about the Trump Tsai phone call. On the contrary, she voiced unease, and called on President Tsai to be prepared for the storm that is about to hit. As a veteran green camp political leader, Annette Lu's reaction was level-headed. She hoped that President Tsai would "know thyself”. If Tsai is willing to be a bargaining chip for the US, she will not merely break with the Mainland, she will also have to pay the US protection money. Therefore she would be well advised to let cross-Strait problems be solved by the two sides of the Taiwan Strait.
台灣要確實認識自己
2016/12/15 中國時報
美國總統當選人川普公開挑戰大陸「一中政策」，台灣官方反應相當低調，令人意外的是，獨派大老居然一片沉寂，反而西方媒體彷彿炸了鍋，尤其《紐約時報》，直指川普碰觸了中國最敏感的「核心利益」，如果執意而為，大陸手上有不少牌可以回敬，台灣可能首當其衝先受害。紐時點出大陸可能操作的幾張牌，如經貿制裁、投資放緩、經援北韓、拉攏伊朗等，其中台灣最不想聽到應該是，大陸很可能發動外交戰，加緊挖角台灣邦交國，以及限制對台投資和赴台遊客數量，打擊台灣經濟。
《紐約時報》並不挺川普，批評大陸向來也不假辭色，這次在評論川普所謂一中政策「談判籌碼說」時，直白得讓人不寒而慄！腦筋清醒的人都知曉，紐時並沒有亂說，大陸要不要懲罰台灣，從來就不是能不能的問題，而是要不要的問題！蔡川通話或許讓獨派人士感到興奮，甚至盼望台灣成為美國制衡大陸的籌碼，問題是，台灣承受得起代價嗎？
什麼是籌碼？是賭徒在賭桌做為下注的本錢，目的是希望在對賭時獲取更大的利益，今天這概念被用在更多層面，包括在國際政治的博奕上，籌碼往往被隱喻成玩家對奕的交易單位。籌碼說表示台灣的地位與前途不操之在己，應由大國決定。美國把台灣視為中美關係的籌碼，並非始自今日，從韓戰爆發台灣成為美國遏制陸權大國第一島鏈的不沉航母時，就已經注定，只是歷任美國總統為盟國保留顏面，川普只是把話明說了。現在問題很清楚了，當前大國博奕中，台灣究竟定位自己是玩家？還是籌碼？如果是前者，還得要看你有沒有足夠的戰略智慧跟人家玩，如果是後者，那麼就等著任人宰割吧！
不要說台灣很小，在大國之間玩不動，也玩不起，當今世上有多少小國，掌握的資源可能還不及台灣，照樣在大國之間玩得虎虎生風？北韓就不提了，新加坡的面積與人口都不及台灣，有誰能否定它在東南亞博奕中的關鍵角色？蔣經國時代，美國忌憚大陸，拒絕出售第二代戰機給台灣，老舊F-104戰機事故頻頻，有「寡婦飛機」謔稱，台灣發憤圖強自行生產了IDF，美國眼看台灣可以自力生產，又強賣了F-16給台灣，圖利美國軍火商。兩蔣時代台灣依附美國，但仍然堅持自己中國人的身分。
台灣不可自居籌碼！原因很簡單，做玩家主動權在自己手上，做籌碼是你被動地讓人家玩，當自己被淪為籌碼之際，就請不要假定玩家會對你心存善念，因為只要可換得更大利益，你是隨時可以被交易的！永遠不要忘記一點，川普是商人，商人遊戲的主旋律是交易，眼中永遠只有美國的利益，永遠不會是台灣的利益。川普如果真的「愛台灣」，就宣布「台灣是美國第51州」，保護台灣，但川普會嗎？
蔡川通話後，川普不斷對大陸嗆聲，一副美中關係即將發生突變的態樣，台灣若有人因此而大感興奮，那恐怕也只能用愚蠢來形容！你怎麼知道他不是在對大陸喊價？有了蔡川通話做為槓桿，川普豈不是正好可以對大陸抬高價碼？如果大陸所提供的報酬夠大夠好，誰說台灣做為籌碼不能被犧牲、被交易？《紐約時報》不是早已羅列出大陸可以操縱的其他籌碼，台灣有真的秤過自己的分量，贏得過其他籌碼嗎？
歷史的經驗班班可考，多少美國總統在就任前大聲批判大陸，讓台灣懷了挺大的樂觀期待，最後對台灣傷害最大的，往往就是這些聲量最大的總統，從尼克森、卡特、雷根、柯林頓到小布希，都曾與大陸做過類似交易，川普有可能例外嗎？特別是這次喊價更高過以往，對台灣傷害會不會也更大呢？
呂前副總統日昨在《中國時報》發表文章，對蔡川通話效應不見興奮，反而表達了不安，呼籲蔡總統要嚴肅面對即將席捲而來的風浪。呂秀蓮身為綠營資深政治人物，反應極其冷靜，期待蔡總統也要「確實認識自己」，如果自甘當美國籌碼，不但會與大陸決裂，還要付保護費，兩岸問題還是放到兩岸平台解決吧。
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