United Daily News Editorial (Taipei, Taiwan, ROC)
A Translation
December 22, 2016
Executive Summary: Will Donald Trump abandon the one China policy? He has at least loosened it. Some predict he will eventually return to the one China policy. Others think he may even restore diplomatic relations with Taiwan, and defend Taiwan. These are all mere speculation, because Trump is highly unpredictable.
Full Text Below:
Will Donald Trump abandon the one China policy? He has at least loosened it. Some predict he will eventually return to the one China policy. Others think he may even restore diplomatic relations with Taiwan, and defend Taiwan. These are all mere speculation, because Trump is highly unpredictable.
The following is an attempt to analyze the situation from the perspective of Washington, Beijing, and Taipei.
Trump's action can be viewed from three levels. On the first level, he sees himself as the "Kim Jong-un of the United States". He wants to dominate the situation with slippery but shallow rhetoric. To some extent, he has already done this. But this sort of "ranting politics" can only increase hostility, worsen the situation, and leave problems unresolved. On the second level, we have the commercialization of the one China policy. In fact, Trump wants to commercialize all international strategic cooperation, including the relationship between the United States and South Korea and Japan. If Beijing wants the United States to abide by the one China policy, it must pay a “user fee”. But this approach, as Richard Bush noted, would forfeit the moral high ground, thereby undermining the one China policy. Moreover, the US-China economic and trade relationship, generally speaking, is mutually beneficial. Harming Mainland China will not necessarily benefit the US. The room for political intervention is limited.
The third level demands close attention. Is Trump using non-recognition of the one China policy to prevent China's rise? First of all, if the United States abandons its one China policy, will that really stop China's rise? Second, if Trump does not want the US to be the world's policeman, but abandons the one China policy and stirs up trouble in the Asia-Pacific region, won't he be adding fuel to the fire? Third, abandoning the one China policy in order to change US China economic and trade relations, is no way to solve the problem. Fourth, abandoning the one China policy will seriously undermine US-China relations. Trump is a businessman. Does he really want such a lose/lose outcome? Trump's move cannot prevent China's rise. Even abandoning the one China policy cannot prevent China's eventual rise. If Trump does this, he will be no wiser than Kim Jong-un.
Beijing's response can also be viewed from three levels. On the first level, it can refuse to lower itself to the level of a Kim Jong-un. It can exercise restraint in its official words and deeds. It can use its official media to respond to Trump personally. This would effectively talk down to Trump. On the second level, if the one China policy is “negotiable”, and can be abandoned, it will highlight the United States' moral perfidy. Beijing would emerge the winner. If the one China policy is reduced to a matter of quid pro quo, to the level of a business deal, Beijing actually holds plenty of chips. On the third level, Beijing and the United States can continue to clash without severing relations. Taiwan will remain constrained by the one China principle. It will prevent the realization of Taiwan independence. If the US abandons its one China policy, that will not change the cross-Strait strategic scenario. This would then test Trump's bottom line. Does he want to resolve the cross-Strait issue, or worsen cross-Strait relations?
Taiwan's response can also be viewed from three levels. On the first level, the Tsai government and much of the public do not consider Trump's move undiluted good news. They are deeply alarmed. Their reaction is the result of years of experience, in office and out. On the second level, Trump is selling the one China policy not just to Beijing, but also to Taipei. This policy is a double-edged sword, and is being sold to two buyers. The loss of the moral high ground and the sense of responsibility in US China policy would constitute a huge loss for Taiwan and pose a hidden danger.
The most serious problem will be found on the third level. As previously noted, Trump has desecrated the formerly sacrosanct one China policy. How will the Tsai government interpret this? Will it take advantage of this? Will Tsai move toward the "Republic of China” and “one China, different interpretations”? Or will she move toward backdoor listing or de jure Taiwan independence? It all depends on whether the Tsai government will correctly assess its strategic situation.
At this point, the Tsai government may be able to take advantage of the "Republic of China” and “one China, different interpretations”. But if it continues to resort to backdoor listing and de-Sinicization, or if it fails to prevent a "national referendum" on Taiwan independence, it will place Taiwan in danger.
As the above situation shows, we must see whether Washington, Beijing, and Taipei can correctly assess their own strategic circumstances. This will determine what they do. Does Trump want to prevent the rise of China? If he does, he must do certain things. Common sense would suggest that he does not. But Trump is not bound by common sense. Will Beijing tolerate backdoor listing or Taiwan independence? That too will require different strategies. All one can be certain of, is that Beijing will not accept it. As for Taiwan, Trump has shaken the one China policy. Will Tsai attempt to dispense with the one China principle? Or will she safeguard cross-Strait relations by returning to the one China principle and one China, different interpretations? This too requires the serious evaluation of different strategies.
The Tsai government must ask itself what it must do in response to cross-Strait realities, regardless of what Trump does.
一中政策 美中台三邊三層次
2016-12-22 聯合報
川普不知會不會拋棄一中政策，至少他已鬆動了一中政策。有人預言他終究會回到一中政策，但也有人勁爆推測他甚至可能與台灣恢復邦交，並協防台灣。這些猜測皆是未知數，因為他是川普，他的特徵是不可預測。
以下，試從美中台三方面分析情勢：
川普的操作，有三個層次。第一層，他將自己當作「美國的金正恩」，想用滑邊但不具縱深的語言去左右情勢。在某種程度上，他似已做到了這一點。但這種「罵街政治」，其實可能只是提升敵意、惡化情勢，沒有解決問題的效能。第二層，將一中政策商品化。事實上，川普也想將一切國際戰略合作商品化──包括美國與韓日的關係，如果北京想要美國維繫一中政策，也必須「使用者付費」。但如此一來，就如卜睿哲所說，一中政策就失去了道德高度，成為對一中政策的最大傷害。何況，美中經貿現況，大致上是在互利情勢上進行，損人未必利己，政治介入的空間有限。
必須嚴肅面對的是第三層，川普是否要藉此阻擋或摧毀中國崛起。一、美國拋棄一中政策，就真能阻擋中國崛起嗎？二、川普不願做世界警察，但拋棄一中政策攪動了亞太情勢，豈不是澆油救火？三、放棄一中政策，與調整美中經貿關係恐怕不是一路的問題。四、放棄一中政策，將嚴重撕裂美中關係，川普這個生意人，難道有魚死網破的意志？倘若川普的操作，不具摧毀中國崛起的縱深，或即使拋棄一中政策也終究阻擋不了中國的崛起，一切就可能回到金正恩的層次。
北京的操作，也有三個層次。第一層，拒絕與「金正恩」一般見識，官方的言行節制，用官媒及個體回應川普，這是下駟對上駟。第二層，如果一中政策有了「可交易性」，顯示美國並非在道德責任上持守一中政策，這反而成為北京的收穫。既然是交易，在商言商，北京的籌碼還算寬裕。第三層，北京與美國可以維持鬥而不破的局面，但若能繼續將台灣框限在「一中原則」中，使台獨不致實現，則美國即使放棄一中政策，也不能改變兩岸情勢，這就考驗川普操作的縱深如何。他到底想化解兩岸問題，或惡化兩岸關係？
台灣的操作，也可從三個層次談。第一層，無論蔡政府或社會輿論，非但未將川普的操作視為片面的喜訊，反而多所戒懼，這是朝野多年憂懼歷練而漸趨成熟的表徵。第二層，川普非但要將一中政策作價賣給北京，也要將它賣給台灣；一個政策，正反兩面，賣給兩個買主。美國一中政策道德性與責任感的喪失，是台灣最大的損失與隱患。
最嚴重的在第三層。前文指出，川普畢竟搖撼了原本如神主牌一般的一中政策，蔡政府如何解讀及運用其中可能出現的空間？是朝「中華民國／一中各表」的方向走？還是朝借殼上市或法理台獨的方向走？這就要看蔡政府如何正確評估自己可能操作的戰略縱深。
此時，蔡政府或許可以趁勢爭取「中華民國／一中各表」的空間，但若繼續操作借殼上市的去中國化，或無力防止獨派「國歌公投」等操作，皆將使台灣陷於僵局危地。
以上情勢，要看美中台三方如何各自正確評估自己的戰略縱深。所謂縱深，就是你到底要如何。川普是否會以摧毀中國崛起為目標，那將有不同的操作。合理的預估是他不會，但川普不能以常理計。北京是否會以容許台灣借殼上市或台獨為縱深，那也會有不同的操作。唯可確定，北京不會接受。至於台灣，在川普作態要搖動一中政策時，蔡政府究竟想趁勢甩掉「一中原則」，或反而必須回到「一中原則／一中各表」以維護兩岸關係，以免被川普玩弄，這也是對於不同戰略縱深的嚴肅考量。
蔡政府必須評估，不論川普要怎麼玩弄，兩岸到底要如何？
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