Tuesday, August 12, 2008

The Future of the DPP: Supporting A Bian and Abetting Corruption

The Future of the DPP: Supporting A Bian and Abetting Corruption
United Daily News editorial (Taipei, Taiwan, ROC)
A Translation
August 12, 2008

President Ma Ying-jeou has declassified the State Confidential Expenses case files. DPP Chairperson Tsai Ing-wen referred to Ma's action as "political calculation," setting the tone for any future disputes. DPP legislators have accused President Ma of "treason." Taiwan independence oriented organizations are calling for a large scale, 250,000 person "100 Days Angry Roar" protest march.

The Green Camp and the DPP may be returning Taiwan's political atmosphere back to where it was before the March Presidential Election, i.e., back to "supporting A Bian, supporting corruption, and supporting independence" vs. "opposing A Bian, opposing corruption, and opposing independence."

The March Presidential Election was a showdown between those who supported A Bian and those who opposed A Bian. Supporting or opposing Chen Shui-bian was tantamount to making diametrically opposed declarations about ones' fundamental values. Supporting A Bian meant supporting corruption and supporting independence. Opposing A Bian meant opposing corruption and opposing independence.

The Green Camp suffered a major defeat in March because it supported A Bian, supported corruption, and supported independence. Now, five months later, to everyones' surprise, it is again supporting A Bian, supporting corruption, and supporting independence. The Green Camp is going all out to support suspect Chen Shui-bian, i.e., supporting A Bian and supporting corruption. Taiwan independence organizations are leading a 250,000 person demonstration march at the end of the month, i.e., supporting independence. Chen Shui-bian has again become the Green Camp political icon, and the beneficiary of unconditional Green Camp support. Taiwan independence organizations have again become the Green Camp's prime movers.

To see the Green Camp's call to arms as purely an attempt to "topple Ma" is simplistic. According to Tsai Ing-wen's own thinking, DPP attempts to "topple Ma" may not translate into support for A Bian and support for independence. They could well lead to rejection of A Bian and suppression of independence. The Green Camp hopes that a large-scale demonstration will restore Chen Shui-bian's legitimacy and polish the Taiwan independence movement's halo. Toppling Ma is merely a slogan. The Green Camp's real motive is to rehabilitate two political icons: Chen Shui-bian and Taiwan independence.

For the DPP to support A Bian before the election was understandable. But for the DPP to continue supporting A Bian and supporting corruption today is mind-boggling. What reason do Tsai Ing-wen, the DPP, and Taiwan independence organizations have to support A Bian? One. The files Chen Shui-bian belatedly classified as "top secret" were already in the public domain. Are the Democratic Progressive Party and Tsai Ing-wen truly unaware that these files are evidence in a criminal case rather than "state secrets?" Two. What exactly is the Democratic Progressive Party's position? That Chen Shui-bian is innocent of corruption? Or that even if Chen Shui-bian is guilty of corruption, he must remain exempt from prosecution? Three. Do Taiwan independence organizations consider trying Chen Shui-bian for corruption an unacceptable assault on Taiwan independence values?

This sudden resurgence in support for A Bian and for corruption, demonstrates the fundamental problem with Green Camp values and Green Camp thought. If even Tsai Ing-wen can not undo the bonds between A Bian, corruption, and independence, then the DPP can never be reborn, and politics on Taiwan will never change. Because the driving force behind support for Ma vs. attempts to topple Ma won't necessarily translate into public support for A Bian, support for corruption, and support for independence.

The DPP cannot possibly topple the KMT within the next four years. This is not news. The DPP KO'd the KMT in 2000. But the question is: Even assuming the DPP could overthrow the KMT, can it save Taiwan? The answer is "Not likely." The DPP's performance over the past eight years testifies to that.

Following its debacle on March 22, the first large-scale demonstration launched by the DPP ought to be about new values and new thinking. To everyones' surprise, it is still about supporting A Bian, supporting corruption, and supporting independence. Is this how the Democratic Progressive Party intends to save Taiwan? Is the DPP fated never to learn from its mistakes? Is it determined to tear Taiwan apart again?

Besides helping Chen Shui-bian get off scot-free, the DPP has much to answer for. The DPP has criticized Ma Ying-jeou's Modus Vivendi. But what does the DPP stand for? Its "Scorched Earth Diplomacy?" The DPP has criticized Cross-Strait Mutual Coexistence. But what does the DPP stand for? Its "Closed Door Policy?" The DPP opposes the 1992 Consensus. But what does the DPP stand for? Its "Rectification of Names and Authoring of a New Constitution?" Its "Nation of Taiwan?" The DPP opposes trying Chen Shui-bian in a court of law. But what does the DPP advocate? Allowing politicians guilty of corruption to get off scot-free?

The DPP is good at criticizing others. The public is well aware of that. But is the DPP any good at solving problems? That is a giant question mark. That has been the case for the past eight years. And that is the case today. The DPP has blasted Ma. But has the DPP offered any viable options for any of the major issues it has raised? Not one.

Chairperson Tsai Ing-wen has a tiny ROC flag on her desk. But the large-scale demonstration on August 30 will probably not display a single, solitary ROC flag. The DPP has been complaining that the ROC flag cannot be displayed at the Olympic Games. So why not hold high the red, white, and blue ROC flag during the August 30 protest march?

挺扁護貪:民進黨何去何從?
【聯合報╱社論】
2008.08.12 02:51 am

馬英九總統註銷國務費案系爭「機密」,蔡英文主席將之定調為「政治計算」,民進黨立委按鈴控告馬總統「外患罪」,台獨社團號召在月底舉行二十五萬人「百日怒吼」大遊行……。

不知不覺之間,綠營及民進黨可能又將台灣的政治氛圍,回復到三月大選以前的情勢,亦即:「挺扁/挺貪/挺獨」與「反扁/反貪/反獨」的對決。

三月大選,是一場「挺扁/反扁」的對決。當時,對陳水扁的支持與反對,不啻就是對整個「台灣價值體系」的兩種迥然而異的認知與抉擇:挺扁大略等於就是挺貪挺獨,反扁則是反貪反獨。

綠營在三月因「扁/貪/獨」而大敗,如今在五個月後竟又再度標舉「挺扁/挺貪/挺獨」的立場,令人大感意外。一方面,全力維護涉及貪汙案的陳水扁,這是「挺扁/挺貪」;另一方面,月底二十五萬人大遊行由台獨社團主導,這是「挺獨」。一時之間,陳水扁又成綠營所全力捍衛的政治符號,台獨社團則又成為綠營的動員引擎。

若將綠營如今的號召僅僅視為「倒馬」,那是皮相之見;因為,依蔡英文所標榜的政治思維,民進黨「倒馬」其實未必會導致「挺扁/挺獨」,反而可能導致「去扁/抑獨」;但現今綠營大遊行的企圖,卻是在「回復陳水扁的正當性/回復台獨的光榮感」。「倒馬」只是大遊行表面的口號,底下的暗潮則是:試圖修補及重建陳水扁與台獨的政治圖騰。

民進黨在大選前挺扁,尚可理解;但竟至今仍然挺扁護貪,卻是不可思議。蔡英文、民進黨及台獨社團今日有何理由挺扁?一、陳水扁所稱的「絕對機密」,在「補核定」為「絕對機密」前,早已公諸社會,那些究竟是犯罪證據,還是國家機密,難道蔡英文及民進黨不知?二、民進黨究竟是主張陳水扁根本不是貪汙犯,還是主張陳水扁即使犯了貪汙罪亦絕不應當受司法審判?三、台獨社團難道認為審判貪汙犯陳水扁,是台獨的政治價值所不能接受之事?

面對這一股突然回潮的「挺扁護貪」形勢,更可證明綠營的根本問題,是在其「價值思維體系」;如果連蔡英文也不能解開「扁/貪/獨」的「三合一死結」,則民進黨已無可能脫胎換骨,台灣政治也不可能出現新的選擇。因為,如前所述,「批馬/倒馬」的動力,未必能形成「挺扁/挺貪/挺獨/挺民進黨」的社會支持。

退一步說,今後四年,民進黨亦不無可能再度推倒國民黨;這不是新鮮事,因為民進黨在二○○○年就已擊倒國民黨。但接下來的問題卻是:民進黨即使再度推倒國民黨,它就能救得了台灣嗎?答案卻是未必,過去八年民進黨的表現即是血淚見證。

在三二二大敗後,民進黨首次參與發動的大遊行,理當標舉出新的價值與論述,不料卻居然仍是「挺扁/挺貪/挺獨」。這真是民進黨救台灣的政治宣示?抑是民進黨無法自拔的政治宿命?或只是要再次撕裂台灣?

除了為陳水扁脫罪,其實民進黨當為應為之事甚多。批評馬英九「活路外交」,但民進黨是否仍主張「烽火外交」?批評「兩岸共生」,但民進黨是否仍主張「閉關鎖國」?反對「九二共識」,但民進黨是否仍主張「正名制憲」、「台灣國」?反對審判陳水扁,但民進黨是否主張貪腐無罪?

民進黨擅於批評,國人盡知;但民進黨能否解決問題,卻是一個大問號,過去八年即是如此;如今民進黨批馬亦是批得淋漓盡致,但民進黨豈曾對前述重大問題提出過任何一個可行的另一選項?沒有,連一個也沒有。

蔡英文主席的辦公桌上有一面小國旗,但八三○大遊行的隊伍中大概還是不會見到任何一面國旗。民進黨正為奧運會場不能出現國旗而言詞尖酸,何不先在八三○大遊行中高舉青天白日滿地紅的國旗?

Monday, August 11, 2008

Regrets About the Pomp and Circumstance

Regrets About the Pomp and Circumstance
China Times editorial (Taipei, Taiwan, ROC)
A Translation
August 11, 2008

Everyone is happy that Republic of China weightlifter Chen Wei-ling won an Olympic bronze medal. At the same time reports have emerged that Taiwan cheerleading team members Yang Hui-ju and Li Kun-lin were forced to return to Taiwan on the same plane on which they departed. According to media reports, on opening day five westerners were arrested in Tiananmen Square protesting human rights in Tibet. Sporadic incidents such as these will of course not interfere with the smooth progress of the Olympic Games. But in view of the spectacle of the opening ceremony, these episodes of "crisis management" were nevertheless a source of regret.

No one can deny that the pomp and circumstance of the Olympic opening ceremony left the world with jaws agape. It allowed the world to witness the "rise of a great nation." That rise is not merely economic. It is scientific and technological, cultural, creative, and represents a comprehensive national strength. Such scenes were unprecedented in the history of the Olympics. The next host will have a hard time surpassing them. Rumor has it London, the next host of the Olympics, is already feeling the pressure. In other words, when it comes to demonstrating the power a great nation, Beijing has already succeeded. In terms of international public relations, Beijing has received a positive assessment from much of the world media. Unfortunately, when it comes to tolerating dissent, the Beijing authorities still cannot let go. Although China has already arisen, it is still one step behind in embracing universal values.

How much harm could Yang Hui-lin and Li Kun-ling, the Taiwan cheerleading team members repatriated to Taiwan, have done? On Taiwan, they are merely a couple of mavericks. Their political influence is minimal. They organized a trip to Beijing to cheer for the Chinese Taipei Olympic Team. If they behave inappropriately, they are the ones who will be criticized, not the Beijing Olympic organizers. Besides, they were probably merely going there as cheerleaders. To make a big deal of it by returning them to Taiwan, has perversely turned them into heroes. DPP politicians fell over each other receiving them at the airport. The photo op was too much to resist.

One day the Beijing authorities will realize that when mavericks such as Yang Hui-ju and Li Kun-lin go to Beijing to say and do certain things, they are engaging in free expression. When people lie down on Tiananmen Square to protest human rights issues, and are neither harassed nor removed, but allowed to peacefully express their opinions, that will be the moment when democracy has arisen in China. All year around people protest in front of the White House and the Capitol Building. We all have grown accustomed to it. Most of the time the media doesn't even cover it. Ketagalan Boulevard in front of the Presidential Office in Taipei is often very lively. People no longer think protests are a big deal. But in Beijing this sort of interference with personal expression, paradoxically allows protesters to make something out of nothing. The five westerners who lay down on Tiananmen Square pretending to be dead for less than 10 minutes, received global media coverage. Beijing lost points on its human rights record, for no reason. Isn't this losing proposition clear enough?

This relates to another feeling of ours about the opening ceremony for the Beijing Olympics. Internationally-famed director Zhang Yimou choreographed the opening ceremony. Three dimensional light shows plus an string of pyrotechnics, allowed Zhang full visual expression. Few people will decline to give this feast for the eyes a giant thumbs up. It used the universal language to introduce the world to Chinese culture. It proclaimed the Confucian tradition of "celebrating the arrival of friends from afar." It conspicuously stressed the Chinese values of "he" or harmony. These motives deserve affirmation. Unfortunately the momentum is temporary. It lacks a humanistic spirit. It mobilized a 2,000 drummer welcome, an 800 person living billboard, and over 3,000 persons to symbolize the disciples of Confucius. These formations allowed people to see the collective, but submerged the individual. Many people praised the disciplined uniformity. What was missing was public sounds of excitement.

The most vital legacy ancient Greek civilization bequeathed the modern world is statues with many different postures. The legacy ancient Chinese civilization bequeathed the modern world is terracotta warriors and horses arrayed in military formation. Movie director Zhang Yimou brought this formation to life in his film, "Hero." He reintroduced it in the opening ceremony for the Beijing Olympics. Whether this collectivist aesthetic, ought to be the main theme of Chinese culture is debatable.

Beijing has successfully used the Beijing Olympics to display its national strength to the world. The Beijing Olympics will probably end successfully as well. When it reaps its Olympic success, Beijing might also want to think about whether it wants to be a formidable power, or a benevolent power. Beijing has already achieved the former. It could do more to achieve the latter.

讚嘆炫麗排場後的些許遺憾
2008-08-11
中國時報

當大家正在在為我國舉重選手陳葦綾勇奪奧運銅牌而欣喜之際,同時卻傳出台灣加油隊的成員楊蕙如、李昆霖相繼遭原機遣返的憾事,據媒體報導在京奧賽事展開的第一天,有五位西方人士在天安門廣場為西藏人權抗議而遭逮捕,這些零星的事件當然不可能干擾奧運的順利進行,但在觀賞過炫麗的開幕式之後,對照這些被迅速「危機處理」掉的小插曲,還是讓人徒增些許的遺憾。

沒有人能否認,這場華麗排場的奧運開幕式,讓全球所有人都為之眼睛一亮,它確實讓世人見識到了中國的「大國崛起」,不僅僅是經濟的崛起、科技的崛起、文化創意的崛起,更是總體國力的崛起。這種場面不必懷疑已是奧運史上的空前,就算後繼者要超越也很辛苦,據說接辦下屆奧運的倫敦已經倍感壓力。換言之,在展現「大國氣勢」上,北京確實做到了,在國際公關操作上,北京也贏得全球媒體不少正面的評價。只不過很可惜的,在對異見包容的高度上,北京當局還是放不開,這使得中國縱然已經強勢崛起,卻依舊在「擁抱普世價值」上,總還是差那麼一步。

其實,被遣返的台灣加油團成員楊蕙如與李昆霖兩人,能有多大能耐?在台灣,他們不過只是行事風格特立獨行的人士,在政治影響力上其實微乎其微,他們組團到北京為中華奧運代表隊加油,如果出現不適當的言行,受到公評的是他們,不是京奧主辦當局,更何況他們很可能就只是單純的加油。如今這般大陣仗的將他們遣送回國,反而把他們捧成了英雄,再見到不少民進黨政客簇擁到機場接機插花,要不被政治化也很難了。

嘗試想想,如果有一天,北京當局學習認識到,類似如楊蕙如、李昆霖這類特立獨行人士到北京說什麼或表達什麼,都是他們個人的言論自由,有人躺在天安門廣場為人權議題抗議,既不干涉也不取締,就任其和平表達意見,那麼我們就可以說,中國是真的「民主崛起」了。美國白宮與國會大廈一年到頭都有人在示威抗議,但大家都早就習以為常,多半連媒體都上不了;如今台北總統府前的凱達格蘭大道上也經常很熱鬧,卻已經沒多少人還認為那有什麼大不了。但在北京這種對個人意見表達的強勢干涉,反而讓抗議者有更大操作空間,那五位躺在天安門廣場抗議的西方人士不過才「裝死」十分鐘不到,就成功登上全球媒體的版面,讓北京在人權紀錄上平白又失了分,這種得失之間,還不夠清楚嗎?

這其實也反襯出我們對京奧開幕式的另一種感受。是的,在國際大導演張藝謀的籌劃下,這場炫麗的開幕式藉由整齊劃一的舞步,結合現代三D光電科技,外加煙火串連,簡直讓張氏美學發揮到極致,很少人不會對這場視覺饗宴豎起大姆指,它標榜用世界的語言介紹中國文化,也不斷宣揚「有朋自遠方來,不亦樂乎」的儒家傳統,更刻意突出「和」的華夏價值,這些用心,絕對是值得肯定的。只不過這種氣勢美則美矣,還是少了人文氣息,試想動員兩千人擊缶迎賓,動員八百多人排活字印刷,動員三千多人象徵孔子弟子,這種陣仗讓人見識到了「集體」,卻消解了「個體」,讓人多了對整齊劃一的讚嘆,卻少了眾聲喧嘩的感動。

這就好像,古希臘文明留給當今世人最鮮活的資產,是表情、姿態不一的雕像,而古中國文明留存至今的主要資產,卻是軍容壯盛的兵馬俑,這支部隊張藝謀導演還曾在電影「英雄」中活化過,如今這種陣仗也再度展現在京奧開幕式裡,這種集體的美學,該不該是中華文化所要彰顯的主軸,真的值得討論。

北京已經成功的藉由京奧的順利開幕,向世人展現它的國力,預期中京奧也一定會圓滿閉幕,在收割奧運成功果實之際,北京或許也可以想想,是要做一個令人敬畏的大國,還是一個予人和善可親的大國,對於前者,北京已經做到了,對於後者,則還有更寬廣的努力空間!

Saturday, August 9, 2008

The KMT is the Key to Ma Becoming a President for All the People

The KMT is the Key to Ma Becoming a President for All the People
China Time editorial (Taipei, Taiwan, ROC)
A Translation
August 4, 2008

In order to break out of the vicious cycle of partisan Blue vs. Green struggles, President Ma has attempted to position himself as a "president for all the people." His advisers have urged him not to assume the role of KMT Chairman. His Examination Yuan and Control Yuan appointments were earnest attempts to rise above partisanship. Even when his political performance was under attack, he never used the opportunity to blame his predecessor's misrule. Although we all can see the effort he is making in this regard, the real question is how long he will be able to stay the course. This is not merely a harsh test for President Ma, it is a harsh test for Taiwan's politics. Will it be a test too harsh to survive?

President Ma has positioned himself as a "president for all the people." But neither the political opposition nor his own party appreciates what he is doing. He has even been booed and undermined. He appointed Lai Hsing-yuan as Chairman of the Mainland Affairs Council. Obviously his intent was to transcend partisanship. Instead it became the focal point for Blue vs. Green crossfire. He hoped his Examination Yuan and Control Yuan nominations would rise above partisanship. But instead they became stalled by a backlash from members of his own party. President Ma genuinely hoped to rise above the dilemma of Blue vs. Green polarization. Instead he found himself in the middle being squeezed from both ends. fighting a war on two fronts.

The irony is that his predecessor President Chen also experienced this same dilemma. When Chen Shui-bian took office eight years ago, he boasted that he would be a "president for all the people," and would even form a "government for all the people." He nominated former Defense Minister Tang Fei as Premier, and recruited numerous Blue Camp heavyweights to his cabinet. He invited Lee Yuan-tseh to become the convener of a group to "establish a cross-Strait framework for peace and stability." He hoped to resolve the differences between the ruling and opposition parties. No matter what the results may have been, at least President Chen tried to become a "president for all the people."

We already know what happened. This "voyage of the century" was fraught with peril. The Tang Cabinet lasted less than a year. Chen announced the cessation of construction on the Fourth Nuclear Power Plant. In one fell swoop, this destroyed the atmosphere of reconciliation Chen had created. After this, no solution to ruling vs. opposition party deadlock was possible. The 2004 "Bulletgate Incident" deepened this opposition. Chen Shui-bian even attempted to achieve reconciliation by cooperating with James Soong. In the end his attempt died a natural death from internal pressures. During the latter part of his term, scandals continually erupted. The Chen Shui-bian government incited Blue vs. Green antagonisms to maintain his own political momentum. President Chen became a Deep Green Godfather. He endlessly manipulated the most sensitive issues in society, in order to intensify confrontation between the ruling and opposition parties. The scars inflicted during this period have still not fully healed.

Today President Ma has also chosen to become a "president for all the people." He is also encountering resistance and pressure from both camps. Whether he will be able to stay the course is hard to say. He has only been in office two months. But President Ma has a number of advantages over former President Chen. One. For eight years, President Chen was a minority president confronting a majority legislature. Confrontation between the executive and the legislature resulted in continued deadlock. Reconciliation was even more difficult. This at least is something President Ma will not have to face. Two. The KMT is ideologically more flexibile than the DPP. At least the KMT is unlikely to play the "Ethnicity Card" in order to trump its opponents and hijack the policymaking process. Three. The current Executive Yuan consists mostly of ivory tower technocrats. These officials are not adept at communicating with the grassroots. But at least they are not predisposed to ideological demagoguery at the drop of a hat. Nor are they predisposed to politicizing every issue that arises.

A number of political disputes have arisen since the second change in ruling parties. The DPP launched surprise attacks over the "green card issue." Over the past few months, besides ideological issues, it has raised such issues as oil price increases, stimulation of domestic demand, tax reform, typhoon forecasting, and flood control programs. All these were policy issues rather than ideological issues. A number of sensitive issues, such as Japan's ramming of the Union, a Taiwanese fishing vessel, and the cross-Strait debate over the "Chinese Taipei" name for the Olympic team, were all resolved at the practical level and not blown out of proportion. The Ma administration's style has to some extent changed the manner in which the opposition DPP attempts to check and balance the ruling KMT. On issues such as the recent wave of oil price increases, tax rebates, and flood control, the DPP has been waging all out guerilla warfare against a larger force. It has maximized its ability to check and balance the ruling KMT. The KMT is exhausted and on the defensive. This kind of public policy debate and interaction between the government and the political opposition, is precisely what we want to see.

Whether President Ma will be able to become a "president for all the people" will not depend entirely upon whether the DPP engages in obstructionism. It will depend even more upon whether the KMT is sufficiently flexible. Many people in the Kuomintang are unwilling to rise above the level of Blue vs. Green confrontation. How long Ma Ying-jeou can remain committed to being a "president for all the people" will be hard to say.

馬要做全民總統 國民黨是關鍵
2008-08-04
中國時報

為了擺脫藍綠纏鬥的惡性循環,馬總統上任後一直努力維繫「全民總統」的定位,他在內部的勸進下堅持不兼黨主席,也在內閣重要人事布局、乃至考、監兩院委員的提名上,努力展現某種政治高度,他甚至在政績飽受抨擊之際,從不藉機牽拖前朝的失政,這些努力雖說大家都看得到,但真正的考驗還是在於這種堅持究竟能挺多久?這不僅對馬總統是一次嚴苛的考驗,對台灣政治,何嘗不也是一次嚴苛的考驗?

其實誰都看得出來,馬總統對「全民總統」的自我定位,不要說在野黨不領情,在執政黨內部也未得到任何掌聲,甚至還領受不少噓聲及扯後腿。他布局賴幸媛接掌陸委會,當然有超越黨派的寓意,但卻先後淪為藍綠駁火與撻伐的焦點,他刻意想在考、監兩院的提名人事上展現高度,卻硬是栽在自己黨內同志的反彈上。換言之,儘管馬總統衷心想跳出藍綠二元對立的困局,期望打開中間力量活動的空間,卻還是面臨被兩端擠壓,甚至是陷入兩面作戰的窘境。

很反諷的是,這種困境上一任的陳前總統也整套經歷過。陳水扁八年前甫上任之際,不僅積極標榜要做「全民總統」,甚至還籌組「全民政府」,除提名前國防部長唐飛擔任閣揆,也陸續延攬多位藍營重量級人士入閣,並請出李遠哲出任「建立兩岸和平穩定的互動架構」推動小組召集人,期盼整合朝野分歧。事後結果怎麼樣姑且不論,最起碼陳前總統原始初衷,還是希望能成就「全民總統」的。

事後的發展大家也都知道,這波「世紀首航」走得非常辛苦,唐內閣的壽命一年都不滿,核四停建案的宣布,幾乎同步摧毀了扁連會所營造的和解氛圍,之後這個僵局幾乎就沒解過,二○○四年兩顆子彈的效應,讓這種對立更形深化,陳水扁甚至一度尋求與宋楚瑜合作以促成另類和解,終究還是在內部壓力下無疾而終。待執政後期陸續爆出弊案之際,扁政府幾乎就是以擴大藍綠對立來維持動能了。那時節的陳總統,宛如深綠版塊的教主,不斷操縱最敏感的議題來激化朝野對立,這段期間所烙下的傷痕,不諱言說到此刻都未完全平復。

如今馬總統同樣選擇以「全民總統」自許,也同樣承受來自兩大陣營的抵制與擠壓,挺不挺得過去,才兩個月當然很難評斷,但馬總統較之陳前總統,還是占了幾項優勢:首先陳前總統終其八年都處在「朝小野大」的劣勢中,在行政立法持續對峙僵局下,和解之途難上加難,這點最起碼是馬總統不必面對的;其次,國民黨在意識形態的彈性上還是較民進黨寬鬆,至少國民黨不至動輒祭出「神主牌」,去凌駕政策的選擇;第三,目前行政院的核心團隊泰半皆技術官僚出身,這些官員在與基層民眾溝通上或許予人「隔一層」的感覺,但至少可以確定他們不會動輒就上綱到意識形態的層次,也不會動不動就將議題「政治化」。

二次政黨輪替後截至目前為止的若干政治紛擾,除民進黨一開始發動奇襲的「綠卡議題」還帶些意識形態色彩外,這幾個月來從油價調漲、擴大內需、賦稅改革、颱風預報,到最近治水方案等,幾乎所有爭議都只限於政策方案的抉擇,而非意識形態上的爭執,若干敏感的議題,如台日聯合號撞船事件,如兩岸有關奧運「中華台北」稱呼等,也都在務實面對下未將事端擴大,這種風格也一定程度上影響了在野黨的制衡操作,最近幾波從油價、退稅到治水等議題,民進黨團一路以小搏大,制衡戰力的極致發揮,打得國民黨簡直可說是疲於奔命,這種集中公共政策的朝野互動模式,其實也正是我們期待見到的模式。

也可以說,未來決定馬總統能否成就其「全民總統」定位的主要因素,並不全在民進黨的抵制,更多還在於國民黨是否願意調整,國民黨內部若還有許多人不願走出昔日藍綠對抗的窠臼,那馬英九對「全民總統」的自我期許還能堅持多久,就真的很難說了。

Wednesday, August 6, 2008

For Beijing, Forcible Reunification is Not the Best Option

For Beijing, Forcible Reunification is Not the Best Option
United Daily News editorial (Taipei, Taiwan, ROC)
A Translation
August 6, 2008

The eyes of the world are on the Beijing Olympics, which open tomorrow. Tibetan independence and and Xinjiang independence elements have been using the Olympic Games to draw attention to their causes. A grenade attack in Kashi, which killed 16 police officers and injured 16 more, was even more alarming. By comparison, cross-Strait relations in recent years have been a rare show of calm and stability. This suggests some thought-provoking political lessons.

In dealing with Taiwan, Beijing has at most three options: One. Unilateral, forcible reunification. Two. Accept "the establishment of a Nation of Taiwan." Three. Preserve the Republic of China. Rationally speaking, until mainland China's democratization and economic development is further along, the worst of the three options is unilateral, forcible reunification. The best is to preserve the Republic of China.

Why? First, let's consider reunification: One. Until mainland China's democratization and economic development is further along, reunifying Taiwan will almost certainly require military or quasi-military state violence. Two. Forcible annexation of Taiwan will inevitably make ruling the region a dilemma. Three. The Taiwan region has undergone four direct presidential elections. It already has a democratic system. If the forcible annexation of Taiwan leads to bloodshed and hatred, Taiwan will be more difficult to control than Xinjiang, Tibet and Hong Kong. For Beijing, unification may not be that difficult. All it needs to do is send troops. But forcible reunification will open up a Pandora's Box.

Why should Beijing "accept the establishment of a Nation of Taiwan" before it considers it "forcible reunification?" One. Because Beijing considers Taiwan independence provocative. Because the international community regards it as "unilaterally changing the status quo." If Beijing uses force in response, it will be interpreted as a defensive reaction, and not an aggressive declaration of war. Two. If Taiwan independence elements provoke a cross-Strait war, it may validate the aforementioned logic of "forcible reunification" as well as the resulting bloodshed and hatred.

Therefore the best option for Beijing is to "preserve the Republic of China." No matter how you look at it, Beijing has no reason to force Taiwan to become another Xinjiang, Tibet, or Hong Kong. Forcible reunification is unwarranted. One. Forcible reunification may result in a Pyrrhic victory. Two. Forcible reunification may lead to endless headaches. Three. Taiwan would become even more difficult to rule than Xinjiang, Tibet and Hong Kong. In fact, the Beijing authorities have in recent years already substantially altered its thinking regarding Taiwan: One. From opposing the status quo, it has changed to maintaining the status quo. Beijing once opposed the status quo,
because the status quo was a divided China. Now it advocates maintaining the status quo. It implicitly recognizes the reality of "divided rule." Two. From proclaiming that "the Republic of China has already perished," it has changed to "opposition to de jure Taiwan independence."
In other words, it merely opposes changing the name to "Taiwan." In order to reaffirm that a Republic of China does not equate with Taiwan independence, it wants to reaffirm that the Republic of China has not perished.

Therefore our list of Beijing's Three Options in its Taiwan Policy, in order of preference, is not merely our subjective opinion, but reflects objective facts the Beijing authorities must confront in their formulation of policy. For Beijing, only "preserving the Republic of China" can avoid the problems attendant with forcible reunification, as well as the risk of Taiwan independence. The best indication that this is Beijing's best option vis a vis Taiwan policy, is that Beijing already appears to be moving in this direction.

Cross-Strait relations must move from purpose-oriented old thinking to process-oriented new thinking. Purpose-oriented thinking stresses only the purpose -- either reunification or Taiwan independence. It only considers only purpose and ignores process. Process-oriented thinking is based on a win-win philosophy and goodwill. It concentrates on the process, on positive interaction, on the building of trust. Process-oriented thinking considers the achievement of a purpose the natural result of changing conditions. One may not pick fruit that is not ripe. The Beijing authorities' position has changed from "opposing the status" to "maintaining the status quo," From the "Republic of China has already perished" to "opposition to de jure Taiwan independence." This may be regarded as a move from purpose-oriented thinking to process-oriented thinking. This move may be strategic, or it may be pragmatic. It may be merely the result of encountering a situation and not knowing how to respond.

When the Beijing authorities look at the situation in Xinjiang, Tibet and Hong Kong, they know that the situation in Taiwan is not the same. They know that in dealing with the Taiwan issue, they cannot resort to their old "destroy the Republic of China" approach. But instead must seek to "preserve the Republic of China." That may be why Beijing has moved from denying the 1992 Consensus to recognizing the 1992 Consensus. During the Bush/Hu hotline conversation, and the English transcript published by Xinhua, Hu Jintao recognized "One China, Different Interpretations." The indications are thatBeijing's top leaders see this, but the rank and file have yet to familiarize themselves with it. Some readers may see this analysis as political trickery. They may not be able to set aside past prejudices, to adopt new values. The highest value in cross-Strait relations must be to establish a symbiotic, win-win relationship, and avoid mutual destruction.

Hu Jintao said: "To seek truth from facts and to seek a mutually acceptable solution, to genuinely solve problems, to create long term stability." Since reunification on Beijing's terms is unacceptable to Taipei, and Taiwan independence is not acceptable to Beijing, the best solution, the mutually acceptable solution, is to preserve the Republic of China.

統一不是北京的好選項
【聯合報╱社論】
2008.08.07 03:06 am

舉世矚目的北京奧運明天揭幕。利用奧運的聚焦效應,藏獨與疆獨皆生事端,日前喀什的手榴彈攻擊事件造成公安人員十六死十六傷,更是怵目驚心;相對而言,這段期間海峽兩岸的關係卻呈現出近年來難得的平和與安定,仔細思量,其間應有發人深省的政治啟示。

北京的對台政策,不外三個選項:一、片面強行統一;二、面對「台灣國成立」;三、維持中華民國。理智思考,在中國大陸的政治民主及經濟發展未達相對成熟的境界之前,對北京而言,上述三個對台政策的選項,最差的就是片面強行統一,最佳的則是維持中華民國。

為 何有此說法?先談統一:一、在中國大陸的政治民主及經濟發展未臻相對成熟前,若欲強行統一台灣,不免訴諸武力或接近武力的政治暴力;二、以武力或政治暴力 強行併吞的台灣,必然成為統治的難題;三、因為,台灣經歷四次總統直選,已有完整的民主體制,若以強力併吞的方式統一台灣,釀成血仇,台灣必較新疆、西藏 及香港更難治理。綜上所述,對北京而言,「統一」也許不難,出兵即有可能;但強行統一後,如同打開了潘朵拉魔盒。

再者,為何「面對台灣國 成立」的排序在「統一」之後。一、因為,台獨被北京視為挑釁,被國際視為「片面改變現狀」,屆時北京若採武力因應手段,可以解釋為被動作為,不是主動宣 戰;二、然而,台獨若引爆兩岸戰爭,則又不啻可能進入前述「強力統一」的邏輯之中,其後續血仇效應無異。

因此,對於北京而言,「維持中華民國」乃最佳選項。不論從任何觀點看,北京皆沒有將台灣強行變成新疆、西藏或香港的道理,亦即沒有強行統一台灣的道理:一、強行統一的過程可能玉石俱焚;二、強行統一後的局面可能後患無窮;三、台灣必將是比新疆、西藏及香港更大的統治難題。

其 實,北京當局近年來已然大幅調整了對台政策的主軸思維:一、由反對現狀,變成了「維持現狀」。過去北京反對現狀,因為現狀就是分裂;現在主張維持現狀,則 是默認「分裂分治」的現實,二、由宣稱「中華民國已亡」,變成「反對法理台獨」;換句話說,只是反對改名換姓的「台灣國」,但確認中華民國不是台獨,亦確 認中華民國未亡。

因此,本文指出「北京對台政策三選項」的排序,或許並非僅是出自主觀想像,而是點出了已經顯現於北京當局政策抉擇的客觀 事實。因為,對於北京來說,唯有「維持中華民國」,始能避免「統一」的難題,也才能避免「台獨」的風險;這應是北京對台政策的最佳選項,跡象顯示,北京似 乎也正朝這個方向移動。

我們曾經指出,兩岸關係應當從「目的論」的舊思維,改換成「過程論」的新觀念。所謂「目的論」,就是只知強調統一 或台獨之「目的」,甚至因「只問目的」而「不擇過程」;所謂「過程論」,則是基於雙贏的善意,不斷地在良性互動的過程中,累積互信;就「過程論」的觀點而 言,「目的」可以水到渠成,但不可「果未熟強摘瓜」。準此以論,北京當局從「反對現狀」變成「維持現狀」,從「中華民國已亡」變成「反對法理台獨」,皆可 視為由「目的論」向「過程論」的移動;這個移動,也許是謀定而動,亦可能是務實面對情勢而渾然尚不自知。

北京當局看一看新疆、西藏及香港 的情勢,即知台灣的情勢更非一般;若要處理台灣問題,必然不能如過去以「消滅中華民國」為手段,反而應在如何「維持中華民國」。或許正因如此,北京從否認 「九二共識」,變成承認「九二共識」;且胡錦濤更在布胡熱線及新華社英文稿中承認「一中各表」。跡象顯示,北京高層似乎已經漸有此見,但一般工作層次對此 尚無體會;或者,有此念者亦將此視為權謀,卻不能認知這是一個跳出過去窠臼的新信仰與新價值。因為,兩岸關係的最高信仰及最高價值,應是雙贏共生,而不是 相互毀滅。

胡錦濤說:「要實事求是地尋求(兩岸)雙方都能接受的解決辦法,真正解決問題,做到行穩致遠。」既然「統一」不為台灣接受,「台獨」不為大陸接受,就本文的論題而言,這個「雙方都能接受」的辦法就是:維持中華民國。

Defending the Constitution's Original Intent

Defending the Constitution's Original Intent
Choosing Virtue and Ability
KMT Department of Cultural Affairs
August 6, 2008

The President has exercised his right to nominate Examination Yuan and Control Yuan members, and the Legislative Yuan has exercised its right to confirm the President's nominations. This has established a positive precedent for future constitutional rule.

Control Yuan Nominees: 29
Confirmed: 25
Percentage Confirmed: 80%

Examination Yuan Nominees: 20
Confirmed: All 20
Percentage Confirmed: 100%

The Control Yuan and Examination Yuan nomination and confirmation process has established a positive precedent for constitutional rule. The President's nominations were public-spirited and unselfish, involving not the slightest hint of quid pro quo. The Legislative Yuan exercised its right of confirmation, energetically investigating the nominees' qualifications, upholding its role as stern gatekeepers. KMT Chairman Wu Po-hsiung noted that this was the first time the President had exercised his right of nomination. The party must respect and support the President's right. But the right of confirmation is also a sacred trust granted Legislators by the constitution. Legislators must rigorously investigate the nominees' qualifications, eliminating unfit nominees. This right must also be respected. The President's right of nomination, and the Legislators' right of confirmation are equally important, and must be granted the same respect under the constitution.

The Examination Yuan and Control Yuan nomination process was unlike anything in the past, where the President's list of nominees was forwarded to the party's Central Standing Committee for approval, or merely as a courtesy. Therefore from the party's perspective, it cannot be compared to past processes, in which party disciplinary measures were invoked, demanding that party legislators rubber-stamp the nominees. The party hasn't become lax however. Internal consensus remains solid. Some of the media have accused the party of losing control. This accusation does not accord with the facts.

During the exercise of its right of confirmation, the party caucus thoroughly investigated the nominees' qualifications on its own initiative. The party leadership did not agree with some Legislators' proposals that voting be made totally open. The party continued to maintain discipline. That is why the party caucus resolved the evening before to reject two of the 25 nominees -- Hsu Ping-ching and Chen Yao-chang. Control Yuan Vice-Presidential nominee Shen Fu-hsiung and Control Yuan nominee Yu Mei-jen were given "support in principle, open balloting." The result was 25 nominees were confirmed. Shen Fu-hsiung was unexpectedly rejected. Shen Fu-hsiung was rejected for three reasons: During a question and answer session with Legislator Chiu Yi, Shen provoked a sharp exchange. When asked about his "Four Possibilities" response to whether Chen Shui-bian ever accepted campaign contributions from Chen Yu-hao, Shen refused to come clean. This cast doubt on his courage to "go after big fish," and left a number of KMT legislators dissatisfied. Chiu Yi swore that if Shen was confirmed, Chiu would immediately resign. Some legislators "sacrifice Shen to save Chiu." Some DPP legislators declared their intention to shut out Wang Chien-hsuan, and openly voted for Shen Fu-hsiung. Some KMT legislators didn't think that Shen Fu-hsiung should receive more votes than Wang Chien-hsuan, therefore deliberately reduced the number of votes cast for Shen Fu-hsiung. Few DPP Legislators actually supported Shen Fu-hsiung. This led to Shen Fu-hsiung's unexpected rejection.

Compared to the past, the confirmation of 25 out of 29 nominees is not bad. US Presidents routinely submit their lists of key nominees to the Senate for confirmation. Even when the President personally lobbies every Senator, only 80% of the nominees are confirmed.

Outsiders have criticized the voting process as evidence of disunity between the Presidential Office, the KMT, and the KMT legislative caucus. As a result, President Ma personally stepped forward during the confirmation process for Examination Yuan Vice President and Examination Yuan members, communicating with legislators. KMT Chairman Wu Po-hsiung and Legislative Yuan President Wang Jing-pyng also mediated. As a result Examination Yuan Vice Presidential nominee Wu Ching-ling and 19 other Examination Yuan nominees were all confirmed, proving that the KMT remains unified, and that the party serves as a bridge between the Presidential Office and the Legislative Yuan.

Clean and Capable Government, Advancing with One Heart

Clean and Capable Government
Advancing with One Heart
KMT Department of Cultural Affairs
August 6, 2008

The Party helping the Government
The Party and Government helping each other help the People

Democratic Politics is party politics. Party politics is responsible politics. Only when party politics operate smoothly, can democratic politics undergo healthy development. The so-called separation of party and government cannot withstand scrutiny. The Presidential Office, the Executive Yuan, and the KMT leadership have never advocated the separation of party and government. The Presidential Office, the Executive Yuan, and the KMT leadership are of one voice on this. The government's policies are responses to the people's needs. Boundaries are necessary between the party and the government, but the KMT believes it must help the government help the people. It must wholeheartedly help the new administration fulfill its policy commitments.

As Chairman Wu Po-hsiung said, the party and the government should not be separate entities, but rather symbiotic entities. Leaders of government may come and go, but political parties abide.

The party must assume full responsibility for the success or failure of Executive Yuan policies and the quality of its elected officials. The DPP held office for eight years. It replaced Premiers six times. It replaced 50 to 60 ministry and committee heads. Nevertheless the public gave the DPP's political performance a thumbs down. The public taught the DPP a lesson by voting it out of office.

A political party must serve as a bridge between the Executive branch and the Legislative branch. More than anyone, the ruling party wants the ruling administration to do well. The role of political parties is not merely to wage election campaigns. Election campaigns are the means by which political parties acquire the right to govern, to fullfill their campaign promises and political ideals, to serve the public, and to benefit society.

Tuesday, August 5, 2008

Reform Now! With a Sure Hand at the Helm

Reform Now! With a Sure Hand at the Helm
KMT Department of Cultural Affairs
August 5, 2008

A new party is in office, sweeping out corruption and offering the nation a rebirth of hope

The new administration has already had an impact on mainland tourism

The new administration is doing its utmost to fight inflation and rescue the economy

A new party is in office, sweeping out corruption and offering the nation a rebirth of hope

A new political party is in office. Its assumption of office, alas, coincided with the rise in international oil prices, inflation, and the global stock market debacle. Taiwan was not spared. It is simply not possible for the cabinet to immediately show the public a glowing report card. Premier Liu naturally feels the weight of his office on his shoullders. He has no choice however, but to revise the KMT's election slogan from "Things will immediately get better!" to "Things will immediately begin getting better!" An expectant mother must undergo nine months of pregnancy -- ten months according to Chinese convention. The new administration is being asked to clean up its predecessor's mess in a few short months. This is no easy matter. We understand the public mood. We understand its high expectations. On May 20, once the new administration took over, at least three things completely changed for the better.

One. Now that the Ma administration is in office, government agencies are clean and uncorrupt. The Presidential Office is no longer inviting cronies over for "dumpling banquets." High officials are no longer engaged in insider trading. First Family members are no longer making back door deals. The corrupt political culture of the previous eight years has clearly been corrected.

Two. Presidential Office and Executive Yuan leaders are doing their utmost to create a harmonious society. No longer are political leaders taking the lead in inciting communal strife, tearing society apart. Past excesses during political mobilizations were an object lesson. The new administration understands that society needs time to heal. We must promote social unity and care more for the underprivileged members of society. This is a dramatic departure from the previous eight years.

Three. Cross-Strait relations have immediately improved. The potential fuse for conflict has been removed. With the new administration in office, talks between ARATS and the SEF, broken off for nine years, have been resumed. Ma Ying-jeou has made good on his campaign promise to permit direct weekend charter flights to bring mainland tourists to Taiwan on July 4th. The new administration has substituted openness for its predecessor's Closed Door Policy. It has substituted reconciliation for confrontation. More peaceful and harmonious cross-Strait relations mean greater opportunities for cross-Strait economic cooperation.

The new administration has already had an impact on mainland tourism

The very first July 4th cross-Strait weekend charter flight brought 735 mainland tourists to Taiwan. The event was widely covered by the media. Its ten day itinerary resulted in an estimated 50 million NT in retail sales. Beginning on July 18 mainland tourists will begin arriving on Taiwan officially, as a matter of routine. As the number of charter flights and passengers per flight increase, profits earned by the travel, restaurant, transportation, specialty retail store, and peripheral industries will increase sharply.

Tourism Association estimates are even more optimistic. If Taiwan allows 3000 mainland tourists to visit every day, in one year it will have allowed in one million tourists. If each mainland tourist stays seven to ten days, each will spend approximately 50,000 NT, not including air fare. If we take into account the consumer spending multiplier effect, this will increase the net worth of Taiwan's service industries by at least 100 billion NT.

Over the past decade or so, many Taiwan tourists have visited the mainland. They have already made an incalculable contribution to the mainland's foreign exchange reserves, and allowed the mainland to earn Taiwan money. But for the past eight years, the DPP has imposed a Closed Door Policy, refusing to expand weekend charter flights, refusing to permit mainland tourists to come to Taiwan to spend their tourist dollars. This has led to an imbalance in tourist trade. President Ma has declared that after weekend charter flights have been in place for six months, daily charter flights will be implemented, and in the second half of next year, normally-scheduled flights will be implemented. At that time the salutary economic impact of mainland tourism will become even more apparent.

The KMT's bold opening to the mainland has predictably inspired DPP envy. DPP leaders have been sounding sour notes and making snide comments all the way. Paradoxically, local DPP county and municipal leaders in southern Taiwan have collectively demanded that weekend charter flights "Enter from the South, and Depart from the South." The Kaohsiung Municipal Government dispatched a large team of representatives to Beijing to participate in a tourism industry expo. Yunlin County Commissioner Su Chi-feng visited Macau, Beijing, and Tianjing, in an effort to promote the sale of agricultural products and cross-Strait religious exchanges. Reality has proven the KMT correct in its policy of opening to the mainland. Grass roots political sentiment has compelled local DPP county and municipal leaders to follow suit. DPP Chairperson Tsai Ying-wen has occupied a number of important government positions over the years, during which she obstructed the normalization of cross-Strait relations. She needs to change her tune and listen to the people. She should not remain at loggerheads with DPP county and municipal leaders, to the detriment of the interests of the public in southern Taiwan. The normalization of cross-Strait relations will increase people to people understanding, promote cross-Strait reconciliation, and ensure cross-Strait peace. The Republic of China's system of freedom and democracy, free speech, differs little from the city to the countryside. These are factors beneficial to future cross-Strait development.

The new administration is doing its utmost to fight inflation and rescue the economy

On May 20, the new administration assumed office. It had no time to bring itself up to speed. It had to deal with the global inflationary crisis and the global stock market debacle. Peoples' pocket books had dramatically shrunk. Their pain index had dramatically increased. Opposition DPP leaders turned a blind eye to reality, and blasted the new administration's every move. They said that gasoline and electricity prices must remain frozen, and that the government must not stimulate domestic demand.

But the fact is ever since mid 2007, international oil prices have been skyrocketing. The US subprime mortgage crisis has persisted as a result of continuing uncertainty. The global economy is experiencing a crisis not seen for two decades, and consumer prices are fluctuating wildly. What's worse, the situation is deteriorating by the day. Taiwan's economy, which has long relied upon foreign exports, could hardly avoid being affected. In fact, the June Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 4.97% over the past year. In part this reflects the DPP's policy of deliberately suppressing necessary oil price increases. But compared to other southeast Asian economies 99% dependent upon imported oil, such as South Korea, Singapore, Hong Kong, our consumer prices have been relatively stable.

The government is responding to the domestic and global economic crisis, taking concrete steps to stabilize consumer prices, promote economic development, normalize cross-Strait relations, and accelerate the reform of monetary policy and tax policy.

Concrete Measures: The Government's Three-Pronged Approach

One. Stablize Consumer Prices: On May 22, the Executive Yuan announced its "Consumer Price Stabilization Plan." It established a "Consumer Price Stabilization Unit" to monitor consumer prices and coordinate with domestic retailers such as Carrefours, RT Mart, Geant, Sungching, Wellcome, and PXMart, which comprise 761 retail stores. It is establishing a special zone for low-priced consumer products. Together with web retailers such as PCHome, Yahoo! Kimo, it is providing an abundant supply of low-priced products, and preventing price inflation.

Two. Stimulate Domestic Demand, Promote Economic Growth: Accelerate plans to "increase local construction, stimulate domestic demand." If successful, annual government and state owned enterprise investments will increase 10.5% and 7.7% respectively, becoming the impetus for economic growth in the second half of the year.

Three. Protect the Underprivileged, Reduce the Impact of Inflation on Middle and Low Income Citizens: Promote the "Young Families Policy," providing young married couples with rent subsidies and no interest loans for first home purchases. To be implemented in 2009. Subsidies for Infants will be made a long-term plan. To be implemented in 2010. A "Working Families Income Guarantee Plan" directed at 450,000 low-income families, providing 6 month subsidies, from September 2008 to February 2009. This will maintain the purchasing power of borderline destitute workers and families during a period of inflation.

The KMT and the new administration are committed to "complete government, complete responsibility." We feel the people's pain. The KMT and the new administration are working hand in glove to achieve these goals. Together we will lead the nation safely out of the current financial crisis.