If Soong is not Running for President, Why the PFP Legislative Nominations?
United Daily News editorial (Taipei, Taiwan, ROC)
A Translation
August 15, 2011
Summary: The truth has finally emerged. James Soong has gradually revealed his full agenda. One. Consider the presidential election. His key objective is to topple Ma Ying-jeou. He is even willing to replace him with Tsai Ing-wen. Two. Consider the legislative elections. His key objective is to increase the number of seats held by the DPP. This will increase the People First Party's chances of becoming the "swing vote."
Full Text below:
The truth has finally emerged. James Soong has gradually revealed his full agenda. One. Consider the presidential election. His key objective is to topple Ma Ying-jeou. He is even willing to replace him with Tsai Ing-wen. Two. Consider the legislative elections. His key objective is to increase the number of seats held by the DPP. This will increase the People First Party's chances of becoming the "swing vote."
Consider the presidential election. James Soong has no chance of replacing Ma Ying-jeou. Even if Ma Ying-jeou is toppled as a result of James Soong's election bid, Tsai Ing-wen would become president, not James Soong. Consider the legislative elections. The People First Party campaign would substantially reduce the number of seats held by the KMT, and substantially increase in the number of seats held by the DPP. The PFP is unlikely to win many seats for itself. Now consider the following.
James Soong is out to get Ma Ying-jeou, plain and simple. He feels slighted and neglected. As a result, he is angry with Ma, and seeks revenge. In order to disguise Soong's personal vendetta, and to give it a veneer of rationality, the Soong camp is denouncing Ma, accusing him of "wreakng havoc upon the nation." It is disguising its personal vendetta as a quest for justice. Soong has been sniping at Ma relentlessly. He insists that Taiwan's most serious problem is a lack of "leadership." He says Ma Ying-jeou lacks the vision required by a commander in chief. He says "Ma is even worse than the Taiwan Affairs Office," Every word Soong utters suggests that "He can be replaced." Soong has urged immediate changes to the presidential election rules. To win, a candidate must win by an absolute majority. Soong is implying that he could then enter the race without fear that he would become a "spoiler." Most amusing of all is Soong's pretense of selflessness. He even urged Su Tseng-chang to run. That way both candidates could pursue their own agendas. In his quest for the presidency, James Soong has thought of everything. Unfortunately his quest for the presidency, is either the ravings of a lunatic or mere wishful thinking.
Consider the legislative elections. Consider the People First Party's first wave of nominations. Consider its alleged future waves of nominations. As we have seen, James Soong's key objective is to increase the number of Democratic Progressive Party legislators. The first wave of PFP nominations clearly targeted districts in which the Blue Camp is weak, or in which its leads only by the slimmest of margins. The People First Party insists on nominating candidates to these districts. It clearly wants the DPP to win. Because if the PFP merely nominates a few candidates to districts where the Blue Camp commands a huge advantage, it will merely replace a few KMT candidates. It will merely replace a few KMT legislative seats. But the PFP is fielding candidates in districts where the going is tough for the Blue Camp. That is the only way Soong can increase the number of DPP seats. That is the way he can increase the chances of the People First Party commanding the "swing vote." This is James Soong's underhanded and ruthless strategy vis a vis the legislative elections.
As noted above, suppose James Soong's key goal is to topple Ma and replace him as president. Unless he is elected president, he has not fulfilled this ambition. But James Soong stands no chance of being elected president. He can hardly acknowledge that "The real purpose behind my presidential bid is to ensure a Tsai Ing-wen victory."
But if Soong is not running for president, that casts doubt on the PFP's bid for legislative seats. One. Suppose the People First Party is nominating legislative candidates left and right, but Soong does not run for president. Soong will not replace Ma as president. At most, Tsai will replace Ma as president. Fielding legislative candidates will not help Soong topple Ma and take his place. Two. Suppose the People First Party nominates legislative candidates left and right. Suppose it increases the number of DPP seats in the legislature, but fails to improve election prospects for the PFP. The Blue Camp will lose. The Green Camp will receive a windfall. The Orange Camp will gain nothing. The People First Party will not benefit. The consequences will harm the entire nation. What would be the point?
James Soong can do little good, but he can inflict much harm. He must decide whether he wishes to play a destructive or constructive role during this election. After all, the KMT and Ma Ying-jeou are evenly matched against the DPP and Tsai Ing-wen. James Soong may hate Ma. He may oppose Ma. he may long to topple Ma. But if he cannot replace Ma after toppling him, he must explain himself. The alternatives are the KMT and Ma Ying-jeou and the DPP and Tsai Ing-wen. So why does he insist on toppling the KMT and Ma Ying-jeou, thereby ensuring a victory for Tsai Ing-wen and the DPP? Is James Soong's real purpose to topple Ma and ensure a victory for Tsai?
In sum, if Soong is running for president in order to topple Ma and replace him, then his indiscriminate legislative nominations have some justification, They represent an attempt to topple the Ma administration as a whole. But what if James Soong does not intend to run for president? What if he is merely using PFP legislative bids to undermine the Blue Camp and benefit the Green Camp, merely out of spite, and does not even benefit the Orange Camp? What if he cannot topple Ma and replace him as president? What if society pays the price for his divisive tactics? If Soong does not run for president, he must explain himself. Why the indiscriminate legislative nominations, clearly intended to ensure a DPP victory? James Soong may be a willing Green Camp tool. He may be willing to topple Ma and divide the Blue Camp, But People First Party legislative candidates need not become James Soong's tools, merely so that he may vent his spleen against Ma Ying-jeou.
The election has begun. On the one hand, James Soong, who is not running for president, has latched onto Ma Ying-jeou and is haranguing him on a daily basis. On the other hand, the PFP is fielding legislative candidates, thereby ensuring DPP victories. What an absurd scenario. James Soong is riding a tiger. He cannot get off. But his followers, PFP legislative candidates, can refuse to be his tools.
宋若不選總統，為何立委烽火提名？
【聯合報╱社論】 2011.08.15
圖窮匕現，宋楚瑜的心計，透過他累積的表述，已經完整顯露：一、在總統選舉中，他的核心目標是想拉下馬英九，即使用蔡英文拉下馬英九亦不違所願；二、在立委選舉中，他的手段則是以全力設法增加民進黨的當選名額為主要目標，俾相對增加親民黨成為「關鍵少數」的機率。
就總統選舉言，宋楚瑜絕無取代馬英九的可能性，馬英九即使因宋參選而被拉下，當選的也一定是蔡英文，而非宋楚瑜；就立委選舉言，則親民黨最大的戰果也將是大幅拉下國民黨的席位，相對即大幅增加了民進黨的名額，但親民黨能當選的席次極低。以下，進一步析論：
宋楚瑜完全是衝著馬英九而來的。他因自認受馬冷落漠視，而爆發反馬仇馬的報復怒火；接著，為了掩飾及合理化此種私怨，宋營斥馬為「禍國殃民」，將私仇轉為公義。日來，宋楚瑜不斷批馬，直指台灣最嚴重的問題就是「領導」，又稱馬英九無三軍統帥的見識，再指「馬辦不如台辦」，字字句句皆是「彼可取而代之」；宋又主張，應當立即將總統選舉改為「絕對多數制」，意謂如此他參選即無罣礙。最令人發噱的是：宋為表示無私，還要蘇貞昌也來參選總統，這樣就能各遂所願。宋楚瑜將自己的總統之路規劃至如此面面俱到的地步，若不是瘋言囈語，亦是太過一廂情願！
再談立委選舉。從親民黨首波提名名單，及聲稱仍將多波提名，就可看出，宋楚瑜的首要目標是要增加民進黨當選立委的名額；首波提名在許多藍營明明已居劣勢或領先極微的地區，親民黨也硬要提名，即擺明了一定要拱民進黨當選的態勢。因為，親民黨若只在少數幾個藍軍具巨幅優勢的地區提名，頂多只能取代國民黨，減少國民黨的立委席次而已；但唯有在藍軍艱困地區「遍地烽火」地大量提名，才能增加民進黨的席位，俾相對增加親民黨成為「關鍵少數」的機率。這就是宋楚瑜在立委選舉既毒又狠的大戰略。
據上所論，宋楚瑜若以「倒馬而取代之」為核心目標，則除非他當選總統，不能遂此心志；但宋楚瑜又絕無當選總統的可能性，他總不能以「我參選總統是要蔡英文當選」向社會交代吧？
然而，宋若不參選總統，則其立委選舉的布局即殊堪質疑：一、親民黨若僅「烽火提名」立委，但宋楚瑜不選總統，則一定不會導致「宋上馬下」的結果，頂多造成「馬下蔡上」；因此，以參選立委來「倒馬扶宋」，這顯然是文不對題。二、親民黨參選立委，倘若是「烽火提名」，所追求的是「增加民進黨席次的效果」大於「親民黨當選的效果」，亦即損藍、利綠、橘又吃不到，則親民黨未獲其利，整個政局卻將承負其後果，試問所為何來？
宋楚瑜絕無可能跳脫「成事不足，敗事有餘」的侷限；他必須決定，是否要在這場選舉中，扮演一個對大局只有「破壞性」而全無「建設性」的角色。畢竟，這是一場「國民黨馬英九」及「民進黨蔡英文」兩黨雙英相爭的五五波惡戰；宋楚瑜可以仇馬反馬倒馬，但若他自己不可能倒馬取而代之，則他必須解釋，為何在「國民黨馬英九」與「民進黨蔡英文」的相對選擇中，他一定要拉垮國民黨及馬英九，而協助保送民進黨及蔡英文？難道倒馬挺蔡竟是宋楚瑜的核心戰略目標？
總之，宋若親自參選總統，以「馬下宋上」為目標，則其「烽火提名」的立委布局即具合理正當性，反正就是要拉垮馬政權罷了！但若宋楚瑜不參選總統，卻在立委選舉中操弄「損藍、利綠，橘吃不到」的報復手段，這其實無法實現「倒馬扶宋／馬下宋上」的目標，反而令社會承受撕裂的後果。因而，宋若不參選總統，他就必須解釋為何要在立委選舉「烽火提名」，擺明了以保送民進黨為主要目標？即使宋楚瑜自甘被綠營利用為倒馬、撕裂藍的工具，親民黨欲參選立委者也不一定要自甘淪為宋楚瑜洩忿發飆的工具。
試想：選戰開火後，倘若一方面看到不參選總統的宋楚瑜每天盯著馬英九開罵，另一方面又看到親民黨在立委選區中擺明了以保送民進黨當選為主要任務，這是如何荒謬怪誕的場景？宋楚瑜已騎虎難下，但他的立委選舉追隨者可以選擇不被利用。
Monday, August 15, 2011
Thursday, August 11, 2011
New Cabinet: From Sean Chen to Lee Hong-yuan
New Cabinet: From Sean Chen to Lee Hong-yuan
United Daily News editorial (Taipei, Taiwan, ROC)
A Translation
August 12, 2011
Summary: Political appointees on Taiwan have long been subject to political interference and the bureaucratization of the administrative process. Sean Chen, Lee Hong-yuan, and others, represent the emergence of a new breed of political appointee, Their professionalism and courage have provided the cabinet with new drive. The cabinet needs more courageous and prudent cabinet officials, We hope such people will be given more room to develop.
Full Text below:
Under Vice Premier Sean Chen's leadership, yesterday government bonds caught fire. Using a paltry 10 billion NT, Chen boosted the index 400 points. This lifted Taiwan stocks out of the global recession. The timing, technique, and results, prove that his move was a success, Sean Chen's reputation for expertise and professionalism is well-deserved.
Heavy handed government intervention has been much too common on Taiwan. Shrewdly capable political appointees such as Sean Chen are rare. Much more common are fence-sitters and Yes Men. Power has shifted back and forth between the Blue Camp and the Green Camp. During the Chen Shui-bian era, cabinet reshuffles were routine. Political appointees were treated like domestics. Political affiliation trumped all. Professionalism was swept away. The Ma administration was unimaginative in its political appointments. It could not decide whether to trust technocrats or academics. Cabinet members were often unclear about the administration's policy direction. Sean Chen however, was a cabinet official capable of both offense and defense. A political appointee able to assume responsibility during a crisis is rare indeed.
Compared to other financial and economic experts in the cabinet, Sean Chen and Central Bank President Perng Huai-nan are more trusted by the public. They are skilled professionals who respect the line between public and private, and who have an easy manner about them. Their reputations are well deserved and were earned over time. Therefore, when they are ordered into battle during a crisis, they have a calming effect. Take the recent stock market crash for example, The TAIEX was dragged down by international panic inspired by the US debt crisis. Taiwan's economic fundamentals are not a problem. But people felt the heat. President Ma's repeated reassurances rang hollow. Sean Chen used government bonds as leverage. He called on banks and corporations holding stocks to support the market. With minimal effort, he stopped the bleeding, He bolstered the confidence of 8 million investors.
The government intervenes in the stock market from time to time, But an intervention as adroit as this is rare. Consider Sean Chen's approach. He did not bang the drums. He did not threaten businesses. He did not disseminate superfluous public propaganda. He quietly noted the underlying trend, He locked onto his target. He waited for the opportunity to strike, Sure enough, his aim was true, He prevented foreign vultures from swooping in. Amidst this international disaster, a shrewd and courageous political appointee successfully dodged a stock market crisis, He did not even need to make use of the national security funds. He has earned our respect.
Besides Sean Chen, a few other political appointees have caught the public eye. The most notable example, is Lee Hong-yuan, who joined the cabinet this spring as Chairman of the Council of Public Works. Immediately upon taking office, he reviewed and canceled unnecessary public construction. He canceled 50 boondoggles in two months. These projects were destined for perpetually unoccupied "Mosquito Hall" status. In an even more proactive move, he launched a plan to remedy land subsidence in the Yunlin and Chaiyi regions. He intends to seal one thousand wells within the decade, in order to prevent the continued subsidence of the high-speed railway, and for that matter, the entire western half of the island.
Interestingly enough, work will conclude on New Year's Day next year. Lee Hong-yuan was originally a fill-in. But for this very reason, he has been able to make full use of his water resources and engineering expertise, He has given new meaning to the job description. Unlike past chairmen, he need fuss over the details or quality of public works. Instead, he can view these projects from a more elevated perspective, and reconsider their necessity, He can confront the land management crisis from the perspective of long term sustainability. The pressure of his short term, has paradoxically enabled him to transcend the constraints of his position. It has enabled him to tackle more urgent problems that confront the nation.
Bureaucratic inertia is inherent in the government's division of labor. Normally, no government agency would take the initiative to highlight problems such as "mosquito halls" and regional subsidence, let alone propose improvements. Normally, by the time a problem becomes known, it is invariably too late. Lee Hong-yuan took the initiative to study the issue. He even provided solutions to each problem. Such courageous political appointees have established a new paradigm. They have provided the cabinet with forward momentum. Lee Hong-yuan's term may be over in only 275 days. But the contribution he has made far exceeds those who merely sit at their desk reviewing documents.
The Executive Yuan has been discussing the tax burden and 12-year compulsory education. Cabinet members have offered different views on these subjects. This is a good sign. From one perspective, the agencies in charge must be able to withstand internal challenges. Only then can they suggest better policies to the public. From another perspective, cabinet members with different professional backgrounds challenging each other, enables them to be less egocentric in their thinking, to learn from each and to think more innovatively. Stirring things up within the cabinet may help reinvigorate it, and win it greater public approval. Premier Wu should encourage these development. He must not deliberately suppress them.
Political appointees on Taiwan have long been subject to political interference and the bureaucratization of the administrative process. Sean Chen, Lee Hong-yuan, and others, represent the emergence of a new breed of political appointee, Their professionalism and courage have provided the cabinet with new drive. The cabinet needs more courageous and prudent cabinet officials, We hope such people will be given more room to develop.
內閣新典型：從陳?到李鴻源
【聯合報╱社論】
2011.08.12 03:16 am
在副閣揆陳?領軍下，政府基金前天適時護盤點火，僅用了區區一百億元的彈藥，即拉升了四百多點指數，使台股率先擺脫國際盤的大崩跌泥淖。從時機、手法和成效看，這都是一次成功的出擊，證明陳?的專業和穩健名不虛傳。
在政治力的過度干預下，多年來，台灣已不容易看到精明幹練又能發揮所長的政務官；大家更常見的，是觀風望向、聽命行事的閣員，在藍綠的潮起潮落中浮沉。陳水扁時代，把內閣改組當成家常便飯，政務官被當成家臣使喚，政治掛帥，專業毀棄。馬政府的用人，在技術官僚與學者之間游移，開創性不強，有些閣員有時連政策都說不清楚；也因此，像陳?這樣能攻能守、臨危堪擔當大任的政務官，實屬難得。
相對於其他財經閣員，陳?和央行總裁彭淮南之所以深受社會信任，主要是他們不僅嫺熟專業，且公私分明，行事穩健圓熟，累積了長期口碑。因此，他們在緊要關頭受命上陣，就能發揮安定人心的作用。以這次股災為例，台股是遭美債引發的國際恐慌所累，並非經濟基本面出了問題；但當火燒眉毛，馬總統的信心喊話已告失靈。陳?以政府基金為槓桿，號召銀行團及企業庫藏股共同護盤，用最小的力氣，止住台股的失血，也穩住了八百萬股民的信心。
政府干預股市時有所聞，但手法像這次這麼乾淨俐落，卻是罕見。觀察陳?的作法，他沒有敲鑼打鼓，沒有向企業威逼利誘，也不向民眾作無謂的喊話；他只是默默觀察盤勢，鎖定目標，伺機發動，果然彈無虛發，也阻止了外資禿鷹趁亂掠奪。在這場國際性的災難中，一個政務官憑其智勇成功征服了股災，甚至未動用到國安基金，值得喝采。
除了陳?，最近人們也看到了一些不一樣的政務官身影。最顯著的例子，是今年春天才加入內閣行列的李鴻源。李鴻源的職務是公共工程會主委，但他一上任，率先執行的任務，卻是檢視並淘汰不必要的公共建設，兩個月即擋下五十多件可能成為「蚊子館」的建設案。他更主動出擊，對雲嘉地層下陷的問題提出搶救計劃，要在十年內封掉千口井，以阻止高鐵乃至整個西部繼續沉陷。
有趣的是，工程會明年元旦即將裁撤，李鴻源入閣原屬過渡；但也正因為如此，他妥善利用自己的水利與工程專才，為這個角色注入截然不同的意義。他不像以往的主委那樣關注公共工程的細節或品質，而以更高的視野去反省這些工程的必要性，同時以永續經營的觀點來面對國土的危機。任期的迫促，反而激發他跨出職務的局限，主動迎戰國家更急切的問題。
試想，若依政府體制的慣性分工，蚊子館的誕生、區域性的地層下陷等問題，幾乎不會有任何單位願主動指出問題，遑論提議改善；俟問題爆發，總是已經太遲。李鴻源不僅主動探討問題，更逐一提供解決對策；如此勇於任事的政務官，除締造了一種新的典型，也為內閣提供了前進的動力。李鴻源的任期雖只有兩百七十多天，但他留下的貢獻，絕對比那些只坐在辦公室批公文的閣員多。
最近，行政院會在討論租稅負擔及十二年國教方案時，都出現了閣員不同意見的交鋒，這是相當可喜的現象。從一方面看，主管部會要禁得起內部的挑戰，才可能向人民提出更完善的政策；從另一方面看，不同專業的閣員相互質疑、切磋，有助於活化決策思維，祛除本位主義。內閣這樣的激盪效應，其實比起死氣沉沉的虛假和諧更能贏得社會迴響；吳揆應該多加鼓勵，而不必刻意抑制。
在台灣政務官因政治干預而走向「行政官僚化」後，如今陳?和李鴻源等新類型政務官的出現，以專業和膽識為內閣注入了新的動力。內閣需要更多這樣有勇有謀的閣員，也期待這樣的人才得到更大的發揮空間。
United Daily News editorial (Taipei, Taiwan, ROC)
A Translation
August 12, 2011
Summary: Political appointees on Taiwan have long been subject to political interference and the bureaucratization of the administrative process. Sean Chen, Lee Hong-yuan, and others, represent the emergence of a new breed of political appointee, Their professionalism and courage have provided the cabinet with new drive. The cabinet needs more courageous and prudent cabinet officials, We hope such people will be given more room to develop.
Full Text below:
Under Vice Premier Sean Chen's leadership, yesterday government bonds caught fire. Using a paltry 10 billion NT, Chen boosted the index 400 points. This lifted Taiwan stocks out of the global recession. The timing, technique, and results, prove that his move was a success, Sean Chen's reputation for expertise and professionalism is well-deserved.
Heavy handed government intervention has been much too common on Taiwan. Shrewdly capable political appointees such as Sean Chen are rare. Much more common are fence-sitters and Yes Men. Power has shifted back and forth between the Blue Camp and the Green Camp. During the Chen Shui-bian era, cabinet reshuffles were routine. Political appointees were treated like domestics. Political affiliation trumped all. Professionalism was swept away. The Ma administration was unimaginative in its political appointments. It could not decide whether to trust technocrats or academics. Cabinet members were often unclear about the administration's policy direction. Sean Chen however, was a cabinet official capable of both offense and defense. A political appointee able to assume responsibility during a crisis is rare indeed.
Compared to other financial and economic experts in the cabinet, Sean Chen and Central Bank President Perng Huai-nan are more trusted by the public. They are skilled professionals who respect the line between public and private, and who have an easy manner about them. Their reputations are well deserved and were earned over time. Therefore, when they are ordered into battle during a crisis, they have a calming effect. Take the recent stock market crash for example, The TAIEX was dragged down by international panic inspired by the US debt crisis. Taiwan's economic fundamentals are not a problem. But people felt the heat. President Ma's repeated reassurances rang hollow. Sean Chen used government bonds as leverage. He called on banks and corporations holding stocks to support the market. With minimal effort, he stopped the bleeding, He bolstered the confidence of 8 million investors.
The government intervenes in the stock market from time to time, But an intervention as adroit as this is rare. Consider Sean Chen's approach. He did not bang the drums. He did not threaten businesses. He did not disseminate superfluous public propaganda. He quietly noted the underlying trend, He locked onto his target. He waited for the opportunity to strike, Sure enough, his aim was true, He prevented foreign vultures from swooping in. Amidst this international disaster, a shrewd and courageous political appointee successfully dodged a stock market crisis, He did not even need to make use of the national security funds. He has earned our respect.
Besides Sean Chen, a few other political appointees have caught the public eye. The most notable example, is Lee Hong-yuan, who joined the cabinet this spring as Chairman of the Council of Public Works. Immediately upon taking office, he reviewed and canceled unnecessary public construction. He canceled 50 boondoggles in two months. These projects were destined for perpetually unoccupied "Mosquito Hall" status. In an even more proactive move, he launched a plan to remedy land subsidence in the Yunlin and Chaiyi regions. He intends to seal one thousand wells within the decade, in order to prevent the continued subsidence of the high-speed railway, and for that matter, the entire western half of the island.
Interestingly enough, work will conclude on New Year's Day next year. Lee Hong-yuan was originally a fill-in. But for this very reason, he has been able to make full use of his water resources and engineering expertise, He has given new meaning to the job description. Unlike past chairmen, he need fuss over the details or quality of public works. Instead, he can view these projects from a more elevated perspective, and reconsider their necessity, He can confront the land management crisis from the perspective of long term sustainability. The pressure of his short term, has paradoxically enabled him to transcend the constraints of his position. It has enabled him to tackle more urgent problems that confront the nation.
Bureaucratic inertia is inherent in the government's division of labor. Normally, no government agency would take the initiative to highlight problems such as "mosquito halls" and regional subsidence, let alone propose improvements. Normally, by the time a problem becomes known, it is invariably too late. Lee Hong-yuan took the initiative to study the issue. He even provided solutions to each problem. Such courageous political appointees have established a new paradigm. They have provided the cabinet with forward momentum. Lee Hong-yuan's term may be over in only 275 days. But the contribution he has made far exceeds those who merely sit at their desk reviewing documents.
The Executive Yuan has been discussing the tax burden and 12-year compulsory education. Cabinet members have offered different views on these subjects. This is a good sign. From one perspective, the agencies in charge must be able to withstand internal challenges. Only then can they suggest better policies to the public. From another perspective, cabinet members with different professional backgrounds challenging each other, enables them to be less egocentric in their thinking, to learn from each and to think more innovatively. Stirring things up within the cabinet may help reinvigorate it, and win it greater public approval. Premier Wu should encourage these development. He must not deliberately suppress them.
Political appointees on Taiwan have long been subject to political interference and the bureaucratization of the administrative process. Sean Chen, Lee Hong-yuan, and others, represent the emergence of a new breed of political appointee, Their professionalism and courage have provided the cabinet with new drive. The cabinet needs more courageous and prudent cabinet officials, We hope such people will be given more room to develop.
內閣新典型：從陳?到李鴻源
【聯合報╱社論】
2011.08.12 03:16 am
在副閣揆陳?領軍下，政府基金前天適時護盤點火，僅用了區區一百億元的彈藥，即拉升了四百多點指數，使台股率先擺脫國際盤的大崩跌泥淖。從時機、手法和成效看，這都是一次成功的出擊，證明陳?的專業和穩健名不虛傳。
在政治力的過度干預下，多年來，台灣已不容易看到精明幹練又能發揮所長的政務官；大家更常見的，是觀風望向、聽命行事的閣員，在藍綠的潮起潮落中浮沉。陳水扁時代，把內閣改組當成家常便飯，政務官被當成家臣使喚，政治掛帥，專業毀棄。馬政府的用人，在技術官僚與學者之間游移，開創性不強，有些閣員有時連政策都說不清楚；也因此，像陳?這樣能攻能守、臨危堪擔當大任的政務官，實屬難得。
相對於其他財經閣員，陳?和央行總裁彭淮南之所以深受社會信任，主要是他們不僅嫺熟專業，且公私分明，行事穩健圓熟，累積了長期口碑。因此，他們在緊要關頭受命上陣，就能發揮安定人心的作用。以這次股災為例，台股是遭美債引發的國際恐慌所累，並非經濟基本面出了問題；但當火燒眉毛，馬總統的信心喊話已告失靈。陳?以政府基金為槓桿，號召銀行團及企業庫藏股共同護盤，用最小的力氣，止住台股的失血，也穩住了八百萬股民的信心。
政府干預股市時有所聞，但手法像這次這麼乾淨俐落，卻是罕見。觀察陳?的作法，他沒有敲鑼打鼓，沒有向企業威逼利誘，也不向民眾作無謂的喊話；他只是默默觀察盤勢，鎖定目標，伺機發動，果然彈無虛發，也阻止了外資禿鷹趁亂掠奪。在這場國際性的災難中，一個政務官憑其智勇成功征服了股災，甚至未動用到國安基金，值得喝采。
除了陳?，最近人們也看到了一些不一樣的政務官身影。最顯著的例子，是今年春天才加入內閣行列的李鴻源。李鴻源的職務是公共工程會主委，但他一上任，率先執行的任務，卻是檢視並淘汰不必要的公共建設，兩個月即擋下五十多件可能成為「蚊子館」的建設案。他更主動出擊，對雲嘉地層下陷的問題提出搶救計劃，要在十年內封掉千口井，以阻止高鐵乃至整個西部繼續沉陷。
有趣的是，工程會明年元旦即將裁撤，李鴻源入閣原屬過渡；但也正因為如此，他妥善利用自己的水利與工程專才，為這個角色注入截然不同的意義。他不像以往的主委那樣關注公共工程的細節或品質，而以更高的視野去反省這些工程的必要性，同時以永續經營的觀點來面對國土的危機。任期的迫促，反而激發他跨出職務的局限，主動迎戰國家更急切的問題。
試想，若依政府體制的慣性分工，蚊子館的誕生、區域性的地層下陷等問題，幾乎不會有任何單位願主動指出問題，遑論提議改善；俟問題爆發，總是已經太遲。李鴻源不僅主動探討問題，更逐一提供解決對策；如此勇於任事的政務官，除締造了一種新的典型，也為內閣提供了前進的動力。李鴻源的任期雖只有兩百七十多天，但他留下的貢獻，絕對比那些只坐在辦公室批公文的閣員多。
最近，行政院會在討論租稅負擔及十二年國教方案時，都出現了閣員不同意見的交鋒，這是相當可喜的現象。從一方面看，主管部會要禁得起內部的挑戰，才可能向人民提出更完善的政策；從另一方面看，不同專業的閣員相互質疑、切磋，有助於活化決策思維，祛除本位主義。內閣這樣的激盪效應，其實比起死氣沉沉的虛假和諧更能贏得社會迴響；吳揆應該多加鼓勵，而不必刻意抑制。
在台灣政務官因政治干預而走向「行政官僚化」後，如今陳?和李鴻源等新類型政務官的出現，以專業和膽識為內閣注入了新的動力。內閣需要更多這樣有勇有謀的閣員，也期待這樣的人才得到更大的發揮空間。
Is the PFP Blowing Smoke or Clearing the Air?
Is the PFP Blowing Smoke or Clearing the Air?
United Daily News editorial (Taipei, Taiwan, ROC)
A Translation
August 11, 2011
Summary: The first wave of PFP nominations includes candidates who may be able to unseat KMT candidates in their own electoral districts. But most observers do not believe the PFP candidates themselves can get elected. The KMT and PFP candidates can only ensure mutual defeat and a DPP victory. Voters will conclude that a vote for the PFP is a vote for the DPP. The PFP may attempt to cloud the issue. But voters will resist any split. The opposite may happen. As the smoke clears, the PFP may be marginalized. The PFP can cloud the issue, or it can allow the smoke to clear. But the fact remains, the PFP is in a no-win situation.
Full Text below:
Yesterday James Soong officially announced the first wave of People First Party (PFP) legislative candidates. Is the power struggle between the KMT and the PFP generating a Fog of War? Or is this a sign that the smoke is finally clearing?
James Soong and the PFP may find themselves in a dilemma. The PFP after all, seeks primarily Blue Camp votes, If the PFP escalates its confrontation with the KMT, it may anger Pan Blue voters, making it difficult for PFP candidates to win support. On the other hand, if it keeps a low profile, it will have no issues to run on, This too will make it difficult for PFP candidates to attract votes. In other words, the People First Party may have entered the fray. But it is caught on the horns of a dilemma. Neither raising a ruckus nor laying low will enable it to win votes.
Soong's recent reentry into the political arena, was initially driven by emotion. The immediate reaction of voters was also predominantly emotional. But once the election begins in earnest, Soong will find it difficult to stir up voter sentiment. The more he stirs the pot, the more he will provoke resentment. The more he will inspire voter doubts and fears. The public may become indifferent. Emotions are fleeting, In the long run, candidates must rely on rational discussion and persuasion. The PFP is no exception.
PFP candidates raised the possibility of running for office. They precipitated a tempest in a teapot. But less than a week later, the smoke was already beginning to clear. At first, the People First Party openly denounced the "Ma/King establishment," saying it had "wreaked havoc upon the nation." Two days later however, they assured voters that they firmly "supported Ma's cross-Strait policy and foreign policy," and that they firmly "supported President Ma's reelection bid." This of course raises a question. Why would the PFP firmly "support" the reelection bid of a president who had "wreaked havoc upon the nation?" The PFP wanted to stir up voter sentiment. But voter sentiment invariably settles back down. As we can see, the PFP is caught in a dilemma.
In fact, when the PFP officially announced its candidates, it may have calmed voter sentiment. The PFP "supports Ma's cross-strait policy." The DPP promises voters that "if we return to power, we will continue the previous administration's cross-Strait policy." The PFP and the DPP are unable to find fault with President Ma's cross-Strait policy. Therefore in response to election season, they are attempting to cloud the issues. But given the Big Picture, the more they attempt to cloud the issues, the faster the smoke will dissipate, and the clearer the situation will become.
The PFP touts James Soong as a man of ability. The implication is that President Ma is "incompetent." It argues that President Ma's cross-Strait policy deserves support. But Ma is "incompetent." Therefore the PFP is reluctant to support President Ma's reelection bid. Therefore the KMT must be deprived of its absolute majority in the legislature, and the PFP must be allowed to play the role of a "deciding minority." But this contradictory and feeble argument does not hold water. If President Ma is that "incompetent," how can we possibly support his re-election? If the KMT loses its absolute majority in the legislature, how will that address the problem of President Ma's alleged "incompetence?" Suppose the People First Party is elected to the legislature? Consider the negative precedent set by the "Chen/Soong Meeting." Can they really gain peoples' trust? Besides, Ma's record may be unsatisfactory in many ways. His restrained style may come across as stiff and irresolute. But to characterize it as "incompetent" is uncalled for. The fact is: when President Ma assumed office, the situation on Taiwan was the worst it has been in two decades. Since he assumed office, the situation, in many ways, is the best it has been in two decades. Lee Teng-hui and Chen Shui-bian loved making political waves. They wreaked havoc upon the nation. Yet their conduct is characterized as "capable." On the other hand, Ma Ying-jeou's introverted, restrained, and reserved style is characterized as "incompetent."
President Ma does deserve to be reprimanded in certain areas. But the Ma administration led the nation out of the financial tsunami. It enabled the two sides to proceed down a win/win road toward "peaceful development." It helped people escape the nightmare of endless battles over reunification vs. independence, The Ma administration has been free of corruption scandals, It has restored judicial independence, One hundred and seventeen nations now grant the ROC visa-free treatment. The diplomatic truce has saved hundreds of billions of hard earned ROC taxpayer dollars. Consider the recent stock market crash and U.S. debt, Cabinet members such as Sean Chen may lack charisma. But when push comes to shove, they are far from "incompetent." The public must not equate fast-talking snake oil salesmen such as Chen Shui-bian and Frank Hsieh with "men of ability." It must not naively characterize mild-mannered Ma administration officials such as Sean Chen as "incompetent." The People First Party must not parrot everything the DPP says. This is an issue that can be easily obscured. In the end, the smoke will clear and the truth will emerge.
The first wave of PFP nominations includes candidates who may be able to unseat KMT candidates in their own electoral districts. But most observers do not believe the PFP candidates themselves can get elected. The KMT and PFP candidates can only ensure mutual defeat and a DPP victory. Voters will conclude that a vote for the PFP is a vote for the DPP. The PFP may attempt to cloud the issue. But voters will resist any split. The opposite may happen. As the smoke clears, the PFP may be marginalized. The PFP can cloud the issue, or it can allow the smoke to clear. But the fact remains, the PFP is in a no-win situation.
親民黨下水：攪渾或沉澱？
【聯合報╱社論】
2011.08.11 02:31 am
宋楚瑜昨天正式公布親民黨第一波區域立委提名名單。這究竟是宣告國親兩黨的爭鬥自此愈攪愈渾，或反而從此進入了沉澱期？
今後，宋楚瑜及親民黨的操作可能陷於兩難處境。畢竟親民黨追求的主要仍是泛藍票源，若欲升高與國民黨的衝突，可能引發泛藍選民反感，不易吸引選票；反之，倘如放低姿態，不能造成話題，亦難吸引選票。也就是說，親民黨下了水，但攪渾不易，沉澱不利，極可能進入清濁兩難的困境。
宋楚瑜進場，當初主要是憑著一股情緒；而選民當下的反應也主要是出自一股情緒。但真正進入選舉流程後，宋想攪動情緒不易，愈攪選民的疑懼及反感愈大，社會的情緒即可能轉而趨向沉澱。因為，情緒是一時的，續航力仍須仰賴理智的論述與說服力；在這一方面，卻似乎看不出親民黨有另樹一幟，自成一家之言的條件。
其實，親民黨在掀起參選話題後，不到一個星期就從「攪渾期」進入了「沉澱期」。一開始，親民黨有人公開斥罵「馬金體制，禍國殃民」；但是，兩天後就統一口徑為「支持馬總統的兩岸政策及外交政策」，並「支持馬總統連任」。試問：親民黨如何主張「支持」一名「禍國殃民」的總統連任？由此即可見它想要攪動的選民情緒，若與勢必漸趨沉澱的選民情緒相對照，其間確實存有操作上的矛盾。
其實，親民黨正式提名後，或許有使渾濁的情勢趨於沉澱的可能性。如今，在兩岸政策方面，親民黨「支持馬總統的兩岸政策」，民進黨則稱「若再執政將延續前朝兩岸政策」；而馬總統的兩岸政策，倘若親民黨及民進黨皆難以搖撼，經由選季的激盪，整個大局即應當不是愈攪愈渾，而可能是漸趨沉澱。
另一個話題是親民黨標榜宋楚瑜是有能力的人，用以對照馬總統之「無能」。親民黨的邏輯似乎是：馬總統的兩岸政策是應當支持的，但因馬總統「無能」，所以雖支持馬總統連任，卻應當讓國民黨在國會不過半，由親民黨來扮演「關鍵的少數」。然而，這樣矛盾又脆弱的論述似乎不易立足：倘若馬總統已「無能」至此地步，豈能支持其連任？而若使國民黨失去國會多數，難道就是治療馬總統「無能」的藥方？而親民黨若進入國會，以「扁宋會」的歷史紀錄言，又如何能獲得國人之信任？何況，馬英九的治理績效固有諸多未能盡如人意之處，但他的那種相對內斂的風格，縱似稍欠霸氣及略顯生硬，但若指其「無能」，恐亦有失公允。事實則是：馬總統接任時，台灣可謂處於二十年來最惡劣的情勢，但他接任迄今，在諸多領域卻堪謂是二十年來最佳狀態。為何如李登輝、陳水扁那般興風作浪的領袖是「有能力」，但馬英九這種內斂自制含蓄者就是「無能」？
馬總統確有諸多可以求全責備之處，但馬政府帶領國人通過金融海嘯的衝擊、使兩岸走上「和平發展」互惠雙贏之路、引導國人跳脫日日統獨惡鬥的噩夢、馬團隊中未見貪腐醜聞、司法獨立已告體現，且除了完成一一七國免簽證外，因外交休兵而節省的人民血汗錢恐以千億元計；即以近日美債股災言，像陳?這樣的閣員，平日雖不惹眼，但要緊時刻以具體表現證明絕非「無能」；國人不能將陳水扁、謝長廷那種將整個國家置於舌尖翻滾者稱為「有能力」，卻將馬團隊中如陳?這種素樸的典型謂為「無能」，因而親民黨也就不必如此人云亦云了。因為，這也是一個不易攪渾的題目，最後必趨沉澱。
再者，從親民黨首波提名名單看，其中或有足以拉下同選區國民黨參選者，但一般認為尚無自己當選的實力，其結果即是鷸蚌相爭，民進黨得利，此一情勢將使選民認為投親民黨就是投民進黨。面對這種氛圍，親民黨的手法若趨向攪渾，選民會抗拒撕裂；反之，若聽其沉澱，親民黨又可能被邊緣化。在攪渾與沉澱之間，親民黨的操作大不易。
United Daily News editorial (Taipei, Taiwan, ROC)
A Translation
August 11, 2011
Summary: The first wave of PFP nominations includes candidates who may be able to unseat KMT candidates in their own electoral districts. But most observers do not believe the PFP candidates themselves can get elected. The KMT and PFP candidates can only ensure mutual defeat and a DPP victory. Voters will conclude that a vote for the PFP is a vote for the DPP. The PFP may attempt to cloud the issue. But voters will resist any split. The opposite may happen. As the smoke clears, the PFP may be marginalized. The PFP can cloud the issue, or it can allow the smoke to clear. But the fact remains, the PFP is in a no-win situation.
Full Text below:
Yesterday James Soong officially announced the first wave of People First Party (PFP) legislative candidates. Is the power struggle between the KMT and the PFP generating a Fog of War? Or is this a sign that the smoke is finally clearing?
James Soong and the PFP may find themselves in a dilemma. The PFP after all, seeks primarily Blue Camp votes, If the PFP escalates its confrontation with the KMT, it may anger Pan Blue voters, making it difficult for PFP candidates to win support. On the other hand, if it keeps a low profile, it will have no issues to run on, This too will make it difficult for PFP candidates to attract votes. In other words, the People First Party may have entered the fray. But it is caught on the horns of a dilemma. Neither raising a ruckus nor laying low will enable it to win votes.
Soong's recent reentry into the political arena, was initially driven by emotion. The immediate reaction of voters was also predominantly emotional. But once the election begins in earnest, Soong will find it difficult to stir up voter sentiment. The more he stirs the pot, the more he will provoke resentment. The more he will inspire voter doubts and fears. The public may become indifferent. Emotions are fleeting, In the long run, candidates must rely on rational discussion and persuasion. The PFP is no exception.
PFP candidates raised the possibility of running for office. They precipitated a tempest in a teapot. But less than a week later, the smoke was already beginning to clear. At first, the People First Party openly denounced the "Ma/King establishment," saying it had "wreaked havoc upon the nation." Two days later however, they assured voters that they firmly "supported Ma's cross-Strait policy and foreign policy," and that they firmly "supported President Ma's reelection bid." This of course raises a question. Why would the PFP firmly "support" the reelection bid of a president who had "wreaked havoc upon the nation?" The PFP wanted to stir up voter sentiment. But voter sentiment invariably settles back down. As we can see, the PFP is caught in a dilemma.
In fact, when the PFP officially announced its candidates, it may have calmed voter sentiment. The PFP "supports Ma's cross-strait policy." The DPP promises voters that "if we return to power, we will continue the previous administration's cross-Strait policy." The PFP and the DPP are unable to find fault with President Ma's cross-Strait policy. Therefore in response to election season, they are attempting to cloud the issues. But given the Big Picture, the more they attempt to cloud the issues, the faster the smoke will dissipate, and the clearer the situation will become.
The PFP touts James Soong as a man of ability. The implication is that President Ma is "incompetent." It argues that President Ma's cross-Strait policy deserves support. But Ma is "incompetent." Therefore the PFP is reluctant to support President Ma's reelection bid. Therefore the KMT must be deprived of its absolute majority in the legislature, and the PFP must be allowed to play the role of a "deciding minority." But this contradictory and feeble argument does not hold water. If President Ma is that "incompetent," how can we possibly support his re-election? If the KMT loses its absolute majority in the legislature, how will that address the problem of President Ma's alleged "incompetence?" Suppose the People First Party is elected to the legislature? Consider the negative precedent set by the "Chen/Soong Meeting." Can they really gain peoples' trust? Besides, Ma's record may be unsatisfactory in many ways. His restrained style may come across as stiff and irresolute. But to characterize it as "incompetent" is uncalled for. The fact is: when President Ma assumed office, the situation on Taiwan was the worst it has been in two decades. Since he assumed office, the situation, in many ways, is the best it has been in two decades. Lee Teng-hui and Chen Shui-bian loved making political waves. They wreaked havoc upon the nation. Yet their conduct is characterized as "capable." On the other hand, Ma Ying-jeou's introverted, restrained, and reserved style is characterized as "incompetent."
President Ma does deserve to be reprimanded in certain areas. But the Ma administration led the nation out of the financial tsunami. It enabled the two sides to proceed down a win/win road toward "peaceful development." It helped people escape the nightmare of endless battles over reunification vs. independence, The Ma administration has been free of corruption scandals, It has restored judicial independence, One hundred and seventeen nations now grant the ROC visa-free treatment. The diplomatic truce has saved hundreds of billions of hard earned ROC taxpayer dollars. Consider the recent stock market crash and U.S. debt, Cabinet members such as Sean Chen may lack charisma. But when push comes to shove, they are far from "incompetent." The public must not equate fast-talking snake oil salesmen such as Chen Shui-bian and Frank Hsieh with "men of ability." It must not naively characterize mild-mannered Ma administration officials such as Sean Chen as "incompetent." The People First Party must not parrot everything the DPP says. This is an issue that can be easily obscured. In the end, the smoke will clear and the truth will emerge.
The first wave of PFP nominations includes candidates who may be able to unseat KMT candidates in their own electoral districts. But most observers do not believe the PFP candidates themselves can get elected. The KMT and PFP candidates can only ensure mutual defeat and a DPP victory. Voters will conclude that a vote for the PFP is a vote for the DPP. The PFP may attempt to cloud the issue. But voters will resist any split. The opposite may happen. As the smoke clears, the PFP may be marginalized. The PFP can cloud the issue, or it can allow the smoke to clear. But the fact remains, the PFP is in a no-win situation.
親民黨下水：攪渾或沉澱？
【聯合報╱社論】
2011.08.11 02:31 am
宋楚瑜昨天正式公布親民黨第一波區域立委提名名單。這究竟是宣告國親兩黨的爭鬥自此愈攪愈渾，或反而從此進入了沉澱期？
今後，宋楚瑜及親民黨的操作可能陷於兩難處境。畢竟親民黨追求的主要仍是泛藍票源，若欲升高與國民黨的衝突，可能引發泛藍選民反感，不易吸引選票；反之，倘如放低姿態，不能造成話題，亦難吸引選票。也就是說，親民黨下了水，但攪渾不易，沉澱不利，極可能進入清濁兩難的困境。
宋楚瑜進場，當初主要是憑著一股情緒；而選民當下的反應也主要是出自一股情緒。但真正進入選舉流程後，宋想攪動情緒不易，愈攪選民的疑懼及反感愈大，社會的情緒即可能轉而趨向沉澱。因為，情緒是一時的，續航力仍須仰賴理智的論述與說服力；在這一方面，卻似乎看不出親民黨有另樹一幟，自成一家之言的條件。
其實，親民黨在掀起參選話題後，不到一個星期就從「攪渾期」進入了「沉澱期」。一開始，親民黨有人公開斥罵「馬金體制，禍國殃民」；但是，兩天後就統一口徑為「支持馬總統的兩岸政策及外交政策」，並「支持馬總統連任」。試問：親民黨如何主張「支持」一名「禍國殃民」的總統連任？由此即可見它想要攪動的選民情緒，若與勢必漸趨沉澱的選民情緒相對照，其間確實存有操作上的矛盾。
其實，親民黨正式提名後，或許有使渾濁的情勢趨於沉澱的可能性。如今，在兩岸政策方面，親民黨「支持馬總統的兩岸政策」，民進黨則稱「若再執政將延續前朝兩岸政策」；而馬總統的兩岸政策，倘若親民黨及民進黨皆難以搖撼，經由選季的激盪，整個大局即應當不是愈攪愈渾，而可能是漸趨沉澱。
另一個話題是親民黨標榜宋楚瑜是有能力的人，用以對照馬總統之「無能」。親民黨的邏輯似乎是：馬總統的兩岸政策是應當支持的，但因馬總統「無能」，所以雖支持馬總統連任，卻應當讓國民黨在國會不過半，由親民黨來扮演「關鍵的少數」。然而，這樣矛盾又脆弱的論述似乎不易立足：倘若馬總統已「無能」至此地步，豈能支持其連任？而若使國民黨失去國會多數，難道就是治療馬總統「無能」的藥方？而親民黨若進入國會，以「扁宋會」的歷史紀錄言，又如何能獲得國人之信任？何況，馬英九的治理績效固有諸多未能盡如人意之處，但他的那種相對內斂的風格，縱似稍欠霸氣及略顯生硬，但若指其「無能」，恐亦有失公允。事實則是：馬總統接任時，台灣可謂處於二十年來最惡劣的情勢，但他接任迄今，在諸多領域卻堪謂是二十年來最佳狀態。為何如李登輝、陳水扁那般興風作浪的領袖是「有能力」，但馬英九這種內斂自制含蓄者就是「無能」？
馬總統確有諸多可以求全責備之處，但馬政府帶領國人通過金融海嘯的衝擊、使兩岸走上「和平發展」互惠雙贏之路、引導國人跳脫日日統獨惡鬥的噩夢、馬團隊中未見貪腐醜聞、司法獨立已告體現，且除了完成一一七國免簽證外，因外交休兵而節省的人民血汗錢恐以千億元計；即以近日美債股災言，像陳?這樣的閣員，平日雖不惹眼，但要緊時刻以具體表現證明絕非「無能」；國人不能將陳水扁、謝長廷那種將整個國家置於舌尖翻滾者稱為「有能力」，卻將馬團隊中如陳?這種素樸的典型謂為「無能」，因而親民黨也就不必如此人云亦云了。因為，這也是一個不易攪渾的題目，最後必趨沉澱。
再者，從親民黨首波提名名單看，其中或有足以拉下同選區國民黨參選者，但一般認為尚無自己當選的實力，其結果即是鷸蚌相爭，民進黨得利，此一情勢將使選民認為投親民黨就是投民進黨。面對這種氛圍，親民黨的手法若趨向攪渾，選民會抗拒撕裂；反之，若聽其沉澱，親民黨又可能被邊緣化。在攪渾與沉澱之間，親民黨的操作大不易。
Wednesday, August 10, 2011
Do Not Exploit Disaster Victims for Votes
Do Not Exploit Disaster Victims for Votes
China Times editorial (Taipei, Taiwan, ROC)
A Translation
August 10, 2011
Summary: In the face of natural disasters, man will not always prevail. The road to reconstruction will be a long one. The second anniversary of the disaster is merely a mile marker along the way. As we proceed toward the third anniversary, we hope the government will be more proactive, more patient, more communicative, and more adept at coordination. It is not merely the infrastructure that needs rehabilitation. We too need spiritual rehabilitation.
Full Text below:
"That is my home, the autumn maple tree is my house number." People who have homes will find it hard to feel the pain of those who have lost their homes. Two years ago, Typhoon Morakot took over 400 lives in Hsiao Lin village, Victims' families held memorial services in honor of loved ones, Thes people can never return to Hsiao Lin Village, Some people carved their house number on rocks. Some people planted sunflowers, or autumn maples. The trees represent homes. The survivors' hearts are filled with thoughts of home. But they are also filled with pain.
Two years ago, on August 7, Typhoon Morakot struck Taiwan. Record rains caused severe flooding in central, southern, and eastern Taiwan. These widespread floods caused landslides. In Hsiao Lin village hundreds of people were buried alive. Other areas suffered severe damage, including Namasia Township, Kaohsiung County, Liuguai Township, Pingtung County, Linbian Township, Jiadong Township, Taitung County, Beinan Township, and Taimali. According to official statistics, the storm caused 681 deaths. Eighteen people are still missing. President Ma Ying-jeou's approval rating has plummeted. Premier Liu weathered the global financial tsunami, but was forced to resign in September over the disaster relief issue.
Hundreds of deaths have left wounds in the hearts of survivors that will never heal.
The Ma administration will find it difficult to emerge from under this shadow.
On the eve of the 8/8 Floods, President Ma Ying-jeou revisited the disaster area and stayed overnight in Hsiao Lin Village. DPP Chairman Tsai Ing-wen criticized Ma. She accused him of visiting the disaster area on the second anniversary of the flood, after neglecting it for over two years, In fact, President Ma visited the disaster area 82 times. Actually, for disaster victims, the number of visits to the disaster area is not that meaningful. It is however, part of the Ma administration's required homework. It enables the administration to keep a close eye on reconstruction. It also enables the administration to continuously track the effectiveness of its disaster prevention and disaster relief efforts.
Over the past two years, reconstruction work has continued unabated. According to the government's numbers, it has provided more than 200 hectares of land to disaster victims. In cooperation with charitable organizations, it has completed nearly 3000 permanent homes, and benefited over 10,000 people. The government undertook Infrastructure projects in 18 major disaster areas. These include the Chi Chi Section of Taiwan Route 16, the Alishan Highway, the Da Jin Bridge, the Chiahsien Bridge, the Liuguai Bridge, the Qishan Bridge, and the Xinfa Bridge on Taiwan Route 27. The Gaoshu Levee in Pingtung is already complete. Industrial reconstruction includes orchid flower cultivation and grouper fish farming. Over 400 hectares of farmland lost during the disaster were recovered.
Nevertheless, reconstruction remains incomplete. For example, Aborigines are most concerned about Taiwan Highway Route 20 and Taiwan Highway Route 21. These have yet to be approved. Some Aborigines are still getting used to living in permanent dwellings, far from their native villages, Some roads remain impassable, The damage caused by the disaster was too extensive. It poses obstacles to swift reconstruction. Some villages have been unable to stabilize the soil. Rains still bring disaster. It is unlikely they will be able to return to their native villages in the near term. To most victims, the homes they lost were their real homes.
Premier Wu Den-yih teared up during the press conference held on the second anniversary of disaster reconstruction. But a number of Aboriginal elected officials protested on behalf of Aboriginal peoples outside the Executive Yuan. Their protests signs read,"Aboriginal Village Restoration Rate: 0. Eviction Rate: 90." Premier Wu, who was moved to tears, may feel wronged. Demanding that victims move away from their tribal villages is a last resort. After all, human life is more important than a particular locale. No one on Taiwan, including the government, can endure an even worse disaster.
When victims protest, the government must listen. The wounds the victims have endured cannot be healed merely by providing them with attractive new homes. What they really want is to return to their old homes. They do not want to be evicted and forced to move north, Their wishes, alas, cannot be fulfilled any time soon. Under the circumstances, all the government can do is remain humble. All it can do is help victims to the best of its ability, The holes in the victims' hearts can never be healed.
Reconstruction has proceeded for two years. Some people are angry at the government over the slow pace of reconstruction. Many more meanwhile, suffer in silence. They do their best to endure, They find ways to integrate themselves into unfamiliar new environments. They learn how to begin anew. "Nature shows no mercy, but among men there is love." Premier Wu bowed low before disaster victims three times during the press conference, He thanked reconstruction personnel. He expressed his gratitude to survivors who have remained positive and optimistic towards life, These survivors have withstood these challenges of nature, and these tests of their character. They have proven their love of mankind.
Those who have not undergone such an experience, cannot imagine how the past two years have been for disaster victims. Tsai Ing-wen criticized Ma Ying-jeou, saying he visited the disaster site only on the second anniversary of the typhoon. But how many times did she visit the same site? How many times did DPP county chiefs and city mayors visit disaster sites under their jurisdiction? The Democratic Progressive Party accused Premier Wu of shedding "crocodile tears." But how many tears have DPP officials shed for the disaster victims? DPP officials' callous sniping, all for the sake of electoral advantage, does nobody any good. It does no good for the victims. It does no good for the reconstruction effort. It does no good for the hearts of men.
In the face of natural disasters, man will not always prevail. The road to reconstruction will be a long one. The second anniversary of the disaster is merely a mile marker along the way. As we proceed toward the third anniversary, we hope the government will be more proactive, more patient, more communicative, and more adept at coordination. It is not merely the infrastructure that needs rehabilitation. We too need spiritual rehabilitation.
中時電子報 新聞
中國時報 2011.08.10
社論－不要為了選舉消費重建災民
本報訊
「那是我的家，茄冬樹就是我家的門牌」。有家的人很難深刻體會失去家的人心中永遠的痛。兩年前莫拉克風災奪走小林村四百多條人命，罹難者家屬舉辦法會追悼親人，他們重回再看不到家的小林村，有人在石頭上刻下門牌號碼，有人種下一株向日葵，或者茄冬樹，一顆樹代表一個家。家，在他們的心裡；痛，也還在他們心裡。
兩年前的八月七日，莫拉克颱風侵台，破歷史紀錄的雨勢，造成台灣中南部及東部嚴重水災，引發多處水患、坍崩與土石流，小林村數百人慘遭活埋；其他災情慘重的災區，還包括當時高雄縣那瑪夏鄉、六龜鄉、屏東縣林邊鄉、佳冬鄉、台東縣卑南鄉、太麻里等地區。根據官方統計，這次風災造成六百八十一人死亡、十八人失蹤；馬英九總統民意聲望大跌，才度過全球金融海嘯的行政院長劉兆玄於救災告一段落後於九月請辭。
數百人命既是倖存者心底無法撫平的痛，更是馬政府執政難以抹去的陰影。
就在八八風災前夕，馬英九總統重回災區，夜宿小林村。民進黨主席蔡英文批評馬只有在風災兩周年紀念時才前往災區，卻疏忽了這兩年多來，馬總統已經前往災區八十二次。訪視災區的次數，對所有災民而言，其實沒有太大意義；但是，對馬政府而言，卻是必要的功課，一方面盯緊重建進度，二方面藉此不斷檢視政府防災救災的效能。
在這兩年中，重建工作無一刻停頓，根據政府匯整統計，政府提供二百多公頃土地，結合眾多慈善團體，完成近三千間永久屋，受益者超過萬人。基礎建設方面包括台16線集集路段、阿里山公路、台27線大津橋、甲仙大橋、六龜大橋、旗山大橋、新發大橋、十八處重大土石災區、屏東高樹舊寮堤防等重建均已完成。產業重建方面，包括蘭花或石斑魚也都復養，若干流失的農田也復建約四百多公頃。
儘管如此，重建工作仍未竟全功，諸如原住民最介意的台20與台21線，迄今未通；部分原住民對遠離原鄉，進住永久屋，還在調適。儘管部分路段未通，肇因於災損太巨，快速大幅重建有實質的困難；部分原鄉迄今土石未能有效保養生息，遇雨依舊成災，短期內重回部落也有根本的困難，但是，對多數失去家園的災民而言，那個失落的家才是他們真正的家。
就在行政院長吳敦義舉行重建兩周年記者會哽咽落淚的同時，部分原住民代表集聚行政院外抗議：「原鄉零進度、迫遷達九成。」紅了眼的吳揆或許心中也有委曲，要災民遠離原鄉也是情非得已，畢竟人命更重要，不要說政府，所有的台灣人，也承受不起更大的災難了。
對於災民的抗議，政府只能敬謹受之。他們心中的創傷不是任何優美的永久屋可以安慰的；他們只想回到自己家，不要被迫北遷，這個願望幾乎可以預言，短期內很難實現。在這種狀況下，政府只能用更謙卑的心，盡最大能力滿足災民的需求，雖然，災民心中那個缺口是怎麼也填不回了。
重建兩年，有人憤怒政府重建速度還是太慢，但是，更多數災民默默地承擔發生在他們身上的災難，努力與堅毅的走下去，想辦法融入他們並不熟悉的新環境，學習展開新的生活。「天災無情，人間有愛」，吳揆在記者會三度九十度鞠躬，感謝所有的重建人員，更感謝的應該是所有展現積極樂觀的人生態度的災民們，是他們讓台灣度過天災的挑戰、人性的考驗，照見台灣的愛與光輝。
不是身歷其境者，很難想像災民是如何走過這重建的兩年，當蔡英文指責馬英九只在周年紀念才前往災區的時候，或許也該想想自己去了幾次？或者民進黨執政的災區縣市首長訪視了幾次？當民進黨指責吳揆之淚是「鱷魚的眼淚」的時候，或許也該想想自己為災民掉過淚沒有？為了選舉利害的冷漠批評，於災民、於重建、於人心俱無益。
面對災難，總有人力難以對抗的時候，災後重建是一條漫長的道路，災滿兩周年只是重建工作的一個檢驗點，邁向重建第三年的此刻，期許政府更積極、更有耐心地溝通協調，不只是硬體設施的復建，我們還需要心靈的復健。
China Times editorial (Taipei, Taiwan, ROC)
A Translation
August 10, 2011
Summary: In the face of natural disasters, man will not always prevail. The road to reconstruction will be a long one. The second anniversary of the disaster is merely a mile marker along the way. As we proceed toward the third anniversary, we hope the government will be more proactive, more patient, more communicative, and more adept at coordination. It is not merely the infrastructure that needs rehabilitation. We too need spiritual rehabilitation.
Full Text below:
"That is my home, the autumn maple tree is my house number." People who have homes will find it hard to feel the pain of those who have lost their homes. Two years ago, Typhoon Morakot took over 400 lives in Hsiao Lin village, Victims' families held memorial services in honor of loved ones, Thes people can never return to Hsiao Lin Village, Some people carved their house number on rocks. Some people planted sunflowers, or autumn maples. The trees represent homes. The survivors' hearts are filled with thoughts of home. But they are also filled with pain.
Two years ago, on August 7, Typhoon Morakot struck Taiwan. Record rains caused severe flooding in central, southern, and eastern Taiwan. These widespread floods caused landslides. In Hsiao Lin village hundreds of people were buried alive. Other areas suffered severe damage, including Namasia Township, Kaohsiung County, Liuguai Township, Pingtung County, Linbian Township, Jiadong Township, Taitung County, Beinan Township, and Taimali. According to official statistics, the storm caused 681 deaths. Eighteen people are still missing. President Ma Ying-jeou's approval rating has plummeted. Premier Liu weathered the global financial tsunami, but was forced to resign in September over the disaster relief issue.
Hundreds of deaths have left wounds in the hearts of survivors that will never heal.
The Ma administration will find it difficult to emerge from under this shadow.
On the eve of the 8/8 Floods, President Ma Ying-jeou revisited the disaster area and stayed overnight in Hsiao Lin Village. DPP Chairman Tsai Ing-wen criticized Ma. She accused him of visiting the disaster area on the second anniversary of the flood, after neglecting it for over two years, In fact, President Ma visited the disaster area 82 times. Actually, for disaster victims, the number of visits to the disaster area is not that meaningful. It is however, part of the Ma administration's required homework. It enables the administration to keep a close eye on reconstruction. It also enables the administration to continuously track the effectiveness of its disaster prevention and disaster relief efforts.
Over the past two years, reconstruction work has continued unabated. According to the government's numbers, it has provided more than 200 hectares of land to disaster victims. In cooperation with charitable organizations, it has completed nearly 3000 permanent homes, and benefited over 10,000 people. The government undertook Infrastructure projects in 18 major disaster areas. These include the Chi Chi Section of Taiwan Route 16, the Alishan Highway, the Da Jin Bridge, the Chiahsien Bridge, the Liuguai Bridge, the Qishan Bridge, and the Xinfa Bridge on Taiwan Route 27. The Gaoshu Levee in Pingtung is already complete. Industrial reconstruction includes orchid flower cultivation and grouper fish farming. Over 400 hectares of farmland lost during the disaster were recovered.
Nevertheless, reconstruction remains incomplete. For example, Aborigines are most concerned about Taiwan Highway Route 20 and Taiwan Highway Route 21. These have yet to be approved. Some Aborigines are still getting used to living in permanent dwellings, far from their native villages, Some roads remain impassable, The damage caused by the disaster was too extensive. It poses obstacles to swift reconstruction. Some villages have been unable to stabilize the soil. Rains still bring disaster. It is unlikely they will be able to return to their native villages in the near term. To most victims, the homes they lost were their real homes.
Premier Wu Den-yih teared up during the press conference held on the second anniversary of disaster reconstruction. But a number of Aboriginal elected officials protested on behalf of Aboriginal peoples outside the Executive Yuan. Their protests signs read,"Aboriginal Village Restoration Rate: 0. Eviction Rate: 90." Premier Wu, who was moved to tears, may feel wronged. Demanding that victims move away from their tribal villages is a last resort. After all, human life is more important than a particular locale. No one on Taiwan, including the government, can endure an even worse disaster.
When victims protest, the government must listen. The wounds the victims have endured cannot be healed merely by providing them with attractive new homes. What they really want is to return to their old homes. They do not want to be evicted and forced to move north, Their wishes, alas, cannot be fulfilled any time soon. Under the circumstances, all the government can do is remain humble. All it can do is help victims to the best of its ability, The holes in the victims' hearts can never be healed.
Reconstruction has proceeded for two years. Some people are angry at the government over the slow pace of reconstruction. Many more meanwhile, suffer in silence. They do their best to endure, They find ways to integrate themselves into unfamiliar new environments. They learn how to begin anew. "Nature shows no mercy, but among men there is love." Premier Wu bowed low before disaster victims three times during the press conference, He thanked reconstruction personnel. He expressed his gratitude to survivors who have remained positive and optimistic towards life, These survivors have withstood these challenges of nature, and these tests of their character. They have proven their love of mankind.
Those who have not undergone such an experience, cannot imagine how the past two years have been for disaster victims. Tsai Ing-wen criticized Ma Ying-jeou, saying he visited the disaster site only on the second anniversary of the typhoon. But how many times did she visit the same site? How many times did DPP county chiefs and city mayors visit disaster sites under their jurisdiction? The Democratic Progressive Party accused Premier Wu of shedding "crocodile tears." But how many tears have DPP officials shed for the disaster victims? DPP officials' callous sniping, all for the sake of electoral advantage, does nobody any good. It does no good for the victims. It does no good for the reconstruction effort. It does no good for the hearts of men.
In the face of natural disasters, man will not always prevail. The road to reconstruction will be a long one. The second anniversary of the disaster is merely a mile marker along the way. As we proceed toward the third anniversary, we hope the government will be more proactive, more patient, more communicative, and more adept at coordination. It is not merely the infrastructure that needs rehabilitation. We too need spiritual rehabilitation.
中時電子報 新聞
中國時報 2011.08.10
社論－不要為了選舉消費重建災民
本報訊
「那是我的家，茄冬樹就是我家的門牌」。有家的人很難深刻體會失去家的人心中永遠的痛。兩年前莫拉克風災奪走小林村四百多條人命，罹難者家屬舉辦法會追悼親人，他們重回再看不到家的小林村，有人在石頭上刻下門牌號碼，有人種下一株向日葵，或者茄冬樹，一顆樹代表一個家。家，在他們的心裡；痛，也還在他們心裡。
兩年前的八月七日，莫拉克颱風侵台，破歷史紀錄的雨勢，造成台灣中南部及東部嚴重水災，引發多處水患、坍崩與土石流，小林村數百人慘遭活埋；其他災情慘重的災區，還包括當時高雄縣那瑪夏鄉、六龜鄉、屏東縣林邊鄉、佳冬鄉、台東縣卑南鄉、太麻里等地區。根據官方統計，這次風災造成六百八十一人死亡、十八人失蹤；馬英九總統民意聲望大跌，才度過全球金融海嘯的行政院長劉兆玄於救災告一段落後於九月請辭。
數百人命既是倖存者心底無法撫平的痛，更是馬政府執政難以抹去的陰影。
就在八八風災前夕，馬英九總統重回災區，夜宿小林村。民進黨主席蔡英文批評馬只有在風災兩周年紀念時才前往災區，卻疏忽了這兩年多來，馬總統已經前往災區八十二次。訪視災區的次數，對所有災民而言，其實沒有太大意義；但是，對馬政府而言，卻是必要的功課，一方面盯緊重建進度，二方面藉此不斷檢視政府防災救災的效能。
在這兩年中，重建工作無一刻停頓，根據政府匯整統計，政府提供二百多公頃土地，結合眾多慈善團體，完成近三千間永久屋，受益者超過萬人。基礎建設方面包括台16線集集路段、阿里山公路、台27線大津橋、甲仙大橋、六龜大橋、旗山大橋、新發大橋、十八處重大土石災區、屏東高樹舊寮堤防等重建均已完成。產業重建方面，包括蘭花或石斑魚也都復養，若干流失的農田也復建約四百多公頃。
儘管如此，重建工作仍未竟全功，諸如原住民最介意的台20與台21線，迄今未通；部分原住民對遠離原鄉，進住永久屋，還在調適。儘管部分路段未通，肇因於災損太巨，快速大幅重建有實質的困難；部分原鄉迄今土石未能有效保養生息，遇雨依舊成災，短期內重回部落也有根本的困難，但是，對多數失去家園的災民而言，那個失落的家才是他們真正的家。
就在行政院長吳敦義舉行重建兩周年記者會哽咽落淚的同時，部分原住民代表集聚行政院外抗議：「原鄉零進度、迫遷達九成。」紅了眼的吳揆或許心中也有委曲，要災民遠離原鄉也是情非得已，畢竟人命更重要，不要說政府，所有的台灣人，也承受不起更大的災難了。
對於災民的抗議，政府只能敬謹受之。他們心中的創傷不是任何優美的永久屋可以安慰的；他們只想回到自己家，不要被迫北遷，這個願望幾乎可以預言，短期內很難實現。在這種狀況下，政府只能用更謙卑的心，盡最大能力滿足災民的需求，雖然，災民心中那個缺口是怎麼也填不回了。
重建兩年，有人憤怒政府重建速度還是太慢，但是，更多數災民默默地承擔發生在他們身上的災難，努力與堅毅的走下去，想辦法融入他們並不熟悉的新環境，學習展開新的生活。「天災無情，人間有愛」，吳揆在記者會三度九十度鞠躬，感謝所有的重建人員，更感謝的應該是所有展現積極樂觀的人生態度的災民們，是他們讓台灣度過天災的挑戰、人性的考驗，照見台灣的愛與光輝。
不是身歷其境者，很難想像災民是如何走過這重建的兩年，當蔡英文指責馬英九只在周年紀念才前往災區的時候，或許也該想想自己去了幾次？或者民進黨執政的災區縣市首長訪視了幾次？當民進黨指責吳揆之淚是「鱷魚的眼淚」的時候，或許也該想想自己為災民掉過淚沒有？為了選舉利害的冷漠批評，於災民、於重建、於人心俱無益。
面對災難，總有人力難以對抗的時候，災後重建是一條漫長的道路，災滿兩周年只是重建工作的一個檢驗點，邁向重建第三年的此刻，期許政府更積極、更有耐心地溝通協調，不只是硬體設施的復建，我們還需要心靈的復健。
Tuesday, August 9, 2011
Fiscal Sustainability Policy Debate Must Continue
Fiscal Sustainability Policy Debate Must Continue
United Daily News editorial (Taipei, Taiwan, ROC)
A Translation
August 9, 2011
Summary: Executive Yuan political appointee Chu Ching-yi has clashed with Minister of Finance Li Yi-teh. Chu pointed out that the low tax burden would "make it impossible for the government to survive." This shows that the tax system, which has given priority to economic development, is out of balance, and is now leading to our government's fiscal collapse.
Full Text below:
Executive Yuan political appointee Chu Ching-yi has clashed with Minister of Finance Li Yi-teh. Chu pointed out that the low tax burden would "make it impossible for the government to survive." This shows that the tax system, which has given priority to economic development, is out of balance, and is now leading to our government's fiscal collapse.
The government has long relied on tax cuts to spur economic growth. But this approach has led to the loss of tax revenue. It has made the government oblivious to this structural problem in its fiscal affairs. Family members may publicly air the family's dirty laundry. But infighting within the cabinet must not stop debate. The government must respond to questions about the fiscal sustainability of the economy. It must find a solution acceptable to the public.
Under normal circumstances, a low national tax burden need not mean fiscal unsustainability. But the tax burden remains low, government spending remains high, and the debt is steadily increasing. Together, these add up to a chain reaction fatal to fiscal sustainability. As a cabinet member, Chu Ching-yi has touched a raw nerve. He has slaughtered a sacred cow. Onlookers in the government and opposition must not regard this as nothing more than a war of words or battle of wills between two political appointees.
What precisely is fiscal sustainability? In December 2009, following the financial tsunami, the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) convened a seminar in Malaysia on strategies for fiscal stability and economic recovery. At the time, the definition of fiscal sustainability rested on two principles. First, the public debt to gross domestic product (GDP) ratio must not be too high, Second, debt must be limited, allowing room for for the next fiscal crisis. Now let us apply these two principles to Taiwan. The Public Debt Law stipulates that government debt at all levels must not exceed 48% of the GNP for the previous three years. For the central government, that figure is 40%. By the end of this year, the central government estimates that debts exceeding one year will approach 37%. Existing debt is almost 90% of the debt limit. Based on the government's own debt limit redline, the national debt is already too high.
How dangerous are high levels of debt? That depends on government solvency. Tax revenues are the government's most dependable source of income, Naturally it is an important way to limit debt. But in recent years the government has adopted an expansionary fiscal policy in response to the financial tsunami. It has aggressively cut taxes. It has accumulated a great deal of debt. As a result, over the past three years, it has collected 75 billion NT less in taxes than before. The tax burden in 2008 was 13.9%, By 2010 it fell to 11.9%. Total tax revenues as a percentage of the government's annual expenditures fell from 73% to 61%, Government solvency declined markedly.
Government income remained low. Government expenditures remained high. This forced the government to borrow to get by. Over the past three years the government accumulated nearly one trillion NT in new debt. Its single year budget deficit, jumped from less than 1% of GDP to over 3%. Clearly the data shows the fiscal situation on Taiwan moving toward extremes. Incomes are lower. Expenditures are higher. Debts are higher. The Ministry of Finance touted its tax cuts and ultralow tax burden as political accomplishments. Chu Ching-yi accused it of misleading the public. The fear is that the government and the public will become accustomed to the status quo. This will plant the seeds of irreversible fiscal ruin.
The government's debt structure differs from the United States, which is also mired in debt. Ours is not foreign debt. Our debt is domestic. Seventy percent of that debt is held by government banks. The national debt may be approaching the limit. But there is no risk of imminent default. Chu Ching-yi warned that "Obviously such a fiscal policy is unsustainable." He was not being alarmist. The government continues to ignore the warning signs. It clings to the "tax cuts are political accomplishments" mentality, The high debt burden means high interest on the debt, It means structural rigidities in government expenditures. It means a vicious cycle of debt owed on debt. The government cannot jump start the economy. It cannot meet the aforementioned second principle of financial sustainability. The high debt burden may even hijack monetary policy. Increasing interest rates increase the government's debt interest expense.
Can the government ensure its fiscal sustainability? This cannot be determined merely by looking at the amount of debt or the tax burden. Two government officials engaged in a battle of wills. Their respective definitions and interpretations of fiscal sustainability represent two extremes. They have laid their cards on the table. How can they not intersect? The government must establish a long-range fiscal strategy. It must determine how much money the nation requires. It must determine the magnitude of the nation's fiscal structure. It must determine how much tax revenue is adequate. It must determine the impact of these factors on the deficit, Only then can it objectively evaluate the nation's fiscal affairs. Only then can it alter its fiscal policy accordingly.
財政永續論辯不應停格於政策內訌
【聯合報╱社論】 2011.08.09
行政院政務委員朱敬一槓上財政部長李述德，點出租稅負擔率偏低「會讓國家活不下去」的問題，凸顯稅制長期以發展經濟為先的失衡表現，正使台灣朝著財政基石崩解的道路前進。
仰賴減稅帶動經濟的執政習慣及對稅收流失的無感，確已降低執政者對財政結構出現危機的警覺性。自家人自揭瘡疤之舉，不應停格在內閣裡的內訌，當政者須為這場質疑財政永續的爭辯，找出社會能夠接受的答案。
一般情況下，國民租稅負擔率偏低，不等於國家財政無法永續；但當租稅負擔率偏低、政府支出不減、舉債日增等三者呈現連鎖反應時，就是財政永續致命的威脅。身為內閣成員，朱敬一主動挑激脆弱財政的敏感神經，打破了當局者迷的定律。旁觀者不論在朝、在野，都不該視之為吵過就算的口水戰，更不能當成是兩位政務官彼此唇槍舌劍的意氣之爭。
然而，什麼是財政永續？二○○九年十二月，亞太經濟合作會議（ＡＰＥＣ）在金融海嘯後，特別在馬來西亞舉辦一場促進財政穩定與經濟復甦策略的研討會，當時即定義財政永續必須建立在兩項基本原則上，一是公共債務占國內生產毛額（ＧＤＰ）比率不能太高，二是控制債務以為下一次危機預留財政空間。依循這兩大原則來看台灣，公共債務法訂定各級政府債務餘額不能超過前三年國民生產毛額（ＧＮＰ）的百分之四十八，中央政府則為百分之四十，而今年底時，中央政府估列一年期以上債務餘額比率已接近百分之三十七，現有國債已逼近舉債限額的九成。就政府自己設下的債務警戒線而言，我國的國債已不可謂不高。
高額國債的危險度，取決於國家償債能力的強弱。做為國家最穩定財源的賦稅收入，自然是控制債務的重要命脈。但近年來，政府因應金融海嘯採行擴張性財政政策，積極減稅、大量舉債的結果，這三年累計減徵七百五十億元稅捐，租稅負擔率因此從民國九十七年的百分之十三點九，滑落至九十九年的百分之十一點九，賦稅收入占政府歲出淨額比重也從百分之七十三，跌落到僅剩百分之六十一，財政支撐的穩定力明顯下降。
收入未增、支出不降，迫使政府必須舉債度日，近三年政府新增債務金額幾近一兆元；單一年度入不敷出的財政赤字，占ＧＤＰ比重則從穩定的低於百分之一水準，跳升到百分之三以上。顯然，數據呈現出來的台灣財政現況，正朝向低收入、高支出及高負債的兩高一低趨勢發展。朱敬一質疑財政部拿減稅、超低租稅負擔率當政績是一種「誤導」，怕的就是政府與國人一旦對現況習以為常，將會埋下日後財政結構扭轉不易的後患。
我國的國債結構，與正陷在債務泥淖中的美國不同。我政府並無外債，現有的國債都是內債，而且七成握在公股銀行手上，即使國債逼近上限，也沒有迫在眉睫的違約壓力。但是，朱敬一「用膝蓋想都知道這樣的財政無法永續」的說法，也非危言聳聽，只要政府繼續無視債務發出的警訊，堅持「減稅才是政績」的心態不變，高額國債的債息負擔，會使政府支出結構僵化，陷入以債養債的惡性循環，無力帶動經濟，不符前述財政永續的第二個原則；甚至可能綁架貨幣政策，因為升息將加重政府債息支出。
然而，台灣有無維繫財政永續的能力，單憑國債金額多寡或租稅負擔率高低仍不足以論斷。兩位政府高官挑起的戰火，對財政現況的描述與解讀，可視為兩種極端的代表。交鋒既已檯面化，豈能沒有交集。執政者有必要建立一套中長程財政策略，確立國家財政所需規模，用以檢驗租稅適足性與赤字缺口的變化，從中尋求調整財政體質之道；如此，有關財政良窳的爭辯，才能有客觀的評價。
United Daily News editorial (Taipei, Taiwan, ROC)
A Translation
August 9, 2011
Summary: Executive Yuan political appointee Chu Ching-yi has clashed with Minister of Finance Li Yi-teh. Chu pointed out that the low tax burden would "make it impossible for the government to survive." This shows that the tax system, which has given priority to economic development, is out of balance, and is now leading to our government's fiscal collapse.
Full Text below:
Executive Yuan political appointee Chu Ching-yi has clashed with Minister of Finance Li Yi-teh. Chu pointed out that the low tax burden would "make it impossible for the government to survive." This shows that the tax system, which has given priority to economic development, is out of balance, and is now leading to our government's fiscal collapse.
The government has long relied on tax cuts to spur economic growth. But this approach has led to the loss of tax revenue. It has made the government oblivious to this structural problem in its fiscal affairs. Family members may publicly air the family's dirty laundry. But infighting within the cabinet must not stop debate. The government must respond to questions about the fiscal sustainability of the economy. It must find a solution acceptable to the public.
Under normal circumstances, a low national tax burden need not mean fiscal unsustainability. But the tax burden remains low, government spending remains high, and the debt is steadily increasing. Together, these add up to a chain reaction fatal to fiscal sustainability. As a cabinet member, Chu Ching-yi has touched a raw nerve. He has slaughtered a sacred cow. Onlookers in the government and opposition must not regard this as nothing more than a war of words or battle of wills between two political appointees.
What precisely is fiscal sustainability? In December 2009, following the financial tsunami, the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) convened a seminar in Malaysia on strategies for fiscal stability and economic recovery. At the time, the definition of fiscal sustainability rested on two principles. First, the public debt to gross domestic product (GDP) ratio must not be too high, Second, debt must be limited, allowing room for for the next fiscal crisis. Now let us apply these two principles to Taiwan. The Public Debt Law stipulates that government debt at all levels must not exceed 48% of the GNP for the previous three years. For the central government, that figure is 40%. By the end of this year, the central government estimates that debts exceeding one year will approach 37%. Existing debt is almost 90% of the debt limit. Based on the government's own debt limit redline, the national debt is already too high.
How dangerous are high levels of debt? That depends on government solvency. Tax revenues are the government's most dependable source of income, Naturally it is an important way to limit debt. But in recent years the government has adopted an expansionary fiscal policy in response to the financial tsunami. It has aggressively cut taxes. It has accumulated a great deal of debt. As a result, over the past three years, it has collected 75 billion NT less in taxes than before. The tax burden in 2008 was 13.9%, By 2010 it fell to 11.9%. Total tax revenues as a percentage of the government's annual expenditures fell from 73% to 61%, Government solvency declined markedly.
Government income remained low. Government expenditures remained high. This forced the government to borrow to get by. Over the past three years the government accumulated nearly one trillion NT in new debt. Its single year budget deficit, jumped from less than 1% of GDP to over 3%. Clearly the data shows the fiscal situation on Taiwan moving toward extremes. Incomes are lower. Expenditures are higher. Debts are higher. The Ministry of Finance touted its tax cuts and ultralow tax burden as political accomplishments. Chu Ching-yi accused it of misleading the public. The fear is that the government and the public will become accustomed to the status quo. This will plant the seeds of irreversible fiscal ruin.
The government's debt structure differs from the United States, which is also mired in debt. Ours is not foreign debt. Our debt is domestic. Seventy percent of that debt is held by government banks. The national debt may be approaching the limit. But there is no risk of imminent default. Chu Ching-yi warned that "Obviously such a fiscal policy is unsustainable." He was not being alarmist. The government continues to ignore the warning signs. It clings to the "tax cuts are political accomplishments" mentality, The high debt burden means high interest on the debt, It means structural rigidities in government expenditures. It means a vicious cycle of debt owed on debt. The government cannot jump start the economy. It cannot meet the aforementioned second principle of financial sustainability. The high debt burden may even hijack monetary policy. Increasing interest rates increase the government's debt interest expense.
Can the government ensure its fiscal sustainability? This cannot be determined merely by looking at the amount of debt or the tax burden. Two government officials engaged in a battle of wills. Their respective definitions and interpretations of fiscal sustainability represent two extremes. They have laid their cards on the table. How can they not intersect? The government must establish a long-range fiscal strategy. It must determine how much money the nation requires. It must determine the magnitude of the nation's fiscal structure. It must determine how much tax revenue is adequate. It must determine the impact of these factors on the deficit, Only then can it objectively evaluate the nation's fiscal affairs. Only then can it alter its fiscal policy accordingly.
財政永續論辯不應停格於政策內訌
【聯合報╱社論】 2011.08.09
行政院政務委員朱敬一槓上財政部長李述德，點出租稅負擔率偏低「會讓國家活不下去」的問題，凸顯稅制長期以發展經濟為先的失衡表現，正使台灣朝著財政基石崩解的道路前進。
仰賴減稅帶動經濟的執政習慣及對稅收流失的無感，確已降低執政者對財政結構出現危機的警覺性。自家人自揭瘡疤之舉，不應停格在內閣裡的內訌，當政者須為這場質疑財政永續的爭辯，找出社會能夠接受的答案。
一般情況下，國民租稅負擔率偏低，不等於國家財政無法永續；但當租稅負擔率偏低、政府支出不減、舉債日增等三者呈現連鎖反應時，就是財政永續致命的威脅。身為內閣成員，朱敬一主動挑激脆弱財政的敏感神經，打破了當局者迷的定律。旁觀者不論在朝、在野，都不該視之為吵過就算的口水戰，更不能當成是兩位政務官彼此唇槍舌劍的意氣之爭。
然而，什麼是財政永續？二○○九年十二月，亞太經濟合作會議（ＡＰＥＣ）在金融海嘯後，特別在馬來西亞舉辦一場促進財政穩定與經濟復甦策略的研討會，當時即定義財政永續必須建立在兩項基本原則上，一是公共債務占國內生產毛額（ＧＤＰ）比率不能太高，二是控制債務以為下一次危機預留財政空間。依循這兩大原則來看台灣，公共債務法訂定各級政府債務餘額不能超過前三年國民生產毛額（ＧＮＰ）的百分之四十八，中央政府則為百分之四十，而今年底時，中央政府估列一年期以上債務餘額比率已接近百分之三十七，現有國債已逼近舉債限額的九成。就政府自己設下的債務警戒線而言，我國的國債已不可謂不高。
高額國債的危險度，取決於國家償債能力的強弱。做為國家最穩定財源的賦稅收入，自然是控制債務的重要命脈。但近年來，政府因應金融海嘯採行擴張性財政政策，積極減稅、大量舉債的結果，這三年累計減徵七百五十億元稅捐，租稅負擔率因此從民國九十七年的百分之十三點九，滑落至九十九年的百分之十一點九，賦稅收入占政府歲出淨額比重也從百分之七十三，跌落到僅剩百分之六十一，財政支撐的穩定力明顯下降。
收入未增、支出不降，迫使政府必須舉債度日，近三年政府新增債務金額幾近一兆元；單一年度入不敷出的財政赤字，占ＧＤＰ比重則從穩定的低於百分之一水準，跳升到百分之三以上。顯然，數據呈現出來的台灣財政現況，正朝向低收入、高支出及高負債的兩高一低趨勢發展。朱敬一質疑財政部拿減稅、超低租稅負擔率當政績是一種「誤導」，怕的就是政府與國人一旦對現況習以為常，將會埋下日後財政結構扭轉不易的後患。
我國的國債結構，與正陷在債務泥淖中的美國不同。我政府並無外債，現有的國債都是內債，而且七成握在公股銀行手上，即使國債逼近上限，也沒有迫在眉睫的違約壓力。但是，朱敬一「用膝蓋想都知道這樣的財政無法永續」的說法，也非危言聳聽，只要政府繼續無視債務發出的警訊，堅持「減稅才是政績」的心態不變，高額國債的債息負擔，會使政府支出結構僵化，陷入以債養債的惡性循環，無力帶動經濟，不符前述財政永續的第二個原則；甚至可能綁架貨幣政策，因為升息將加重政府債息支出。
然而，台灣有無維繫財政永續的能力，單憑國債金額多寡或租稅負擔率高低仍不足以論斷。兩位政府高官挑起的戰火，對財政現況的描述與解讀，可視為兩種極端的代表。交鋒既已檯面化，豈能沒有交集。執政者有必要建立一套中長程財政策略，確立國家財政所需規模，用以檢驗租稅適足性與赤字缺口的變化，從中尋求調整財政體質之道；如此，有關財政良窳的爭辯，才能有客觀的評價。
Monday, August 8, 2011
Typhoon Morakot is History, But Its Lessons Must Not Be Forgotten
Typhoon Morakot is History, But Its Lessons Must Not Be Forgotten
United Daily News editorial (Taipei, Taiwan, ROC)
A Translation
August 8, 2011
Summary: Typhoon Muifa brushed past and left. Today is the second anniversary of Typhoon Morakot. Typhoon Morakot, which struck in 2009, was the disaster of the century. This notorious typhoon is now history. But its lessons must not be forgotten. Post-disaster reconstruction or disaster prevention requires swift passage of the Three National Land Protection Laws. Only then can we begin land surveying, verifying the safety of each and every tract of land, verifying use restrictions, expanding land restoration, reducing man made contributions to natural disasters.
Full Text below:
Typhoon Muifa brushed past and left. Today is the second anniversary of Typhoon Morakot. Typhoon Morakot, which struck in 2009, was the disaster of the century. This notorious typhoon is now history. But its lessons must not be forgotten.
Typhoon Morakot wiped Hsiao Lin Village off the map. It was a natural disaster that shocked the world. It has become important research material for disaster researchers the world over. Many countries have send experts to Mount Zion to investigate, in the hope of finding clues. In particular, Japan's efforts have commanded respect. The first time Japan sent experts to investigate, they confirmed that large areas showed signs of rock creep. This was followed by a survey of the entire land area of Japan. The survey identified potential slide areas and issued warnings. By contrast, authorities on Taiwan took almost no action.
Before the Mount Zion landslide, low frequency signals were detected. Investigators hope this will contribute to an early-warning mechanism for large scale landslides. The subject has been of great interest to the international scientific community. Multinational research teams from Britain, Japan, and the United States are investigating. They hope to develop an early warning mechanism that will benefit mankind, by making a significant contribution to landslide or earthquake prediction. Taiwan is situated in a region prone to natural disasters. Yet political leaders on Taiwan have clearly been lax in their response.
For the past two years, the government has promoted post-disaster reconstruction. In both men and materiel, its reconstruction efforts have been considerably more aggressive than in the past. They have been larger in scale, and more efficient in execution. Nevertheless, the recovery has been disappointing. This is especially true for reservoirs, roads, and other infrastructure. As of today, long lasting solutions have yet to be found. The key reason is the potential impact they may have on the National Land Rehabilitation Program. The legislature must pass the required national land use laws. Only then can officials take charge. Otherwise it will remain difficult to effect any permanent cures.
The massive 9/21 Earthquake struck 12 years ago. It wreaked havoc on the geological structures beneath the island. Typhoon Morakot inundated that already fractured and loose earth with hundreds of thousands of tons of precipitation. It accelerated this soil erosion. As a result, Hsiao Lin Village in Kaohsiung, Taimali Township in Taitung, and Chen Youlan Creek Township in Nantou all suffered landslides.
The Legislative Yuan approved special regulations and a special budget for disaster recovery and disaster reconstruction two years ago. Central and local governments have dedicated special staff to the problem. They have made real progress. They have sheltered, cared for, and subsidized disaster victims. They have built prefabricated and permanent housing units. They have begun economic renewal. They have relocated entire villages away from high-risk areas. In this, they have done well. The government has significantly upgraded its disaster response ability. Central and local governments have published disaster prevention maps. Rescue relief officials have affirmed that village, township, and district officials are in charge. These are all useful actions.
But it has done virtually nothing vis a vis the reconstruction of roads, bridges, and other infrastructure. The 8/8 Floods heavily impacted the headwaters of Kaoping Creek. The Provincial Highway, which runs through Namasia, Taoyuan, and Hsiao Lin districts in Kaohsiung City, was cut. On the other side of Feng Shui Ya Kou, villages on the upper reaches of the Chen Youlan Creek constitute another kind of disaster area. As of today, no reconstruction has initiated whatsoever. The construction of permanent roads or bridges is anticipated. But how will they go about it? As of today, no one has had the courage to make any decisions.
Consider road reconstruction. Roads in Namasia, Minzhu, and other districts in Kaohsiung City, were cut. Two years of reconstruction have been limited to the repair of steel structures, freight containers, culverts, sidewalks, or temporary bridges, No permanent roads or bridges have been constructed. Local protestors were accorded second-class citizen treatment. The 8/8 Floods dumped 94 million tons of silt into Laonong Creek, raising the creekbed 30 meters. Highway authorities have no response. Over the past two years, whenever it rains in the mountain regions, pathways and temporary bridges are all swept into the sea like so much flotsam. A dozen or more reconstructed pathways and temporary bridges were battered by southwest winds from Typhoon Milei. Half of them were washed into the sea
Creek beds in Laonong Creek and other disaster areas were suddenly raised. This affected road or bridge reconstruction. The well-known Tsengwen Creek overflowed and diverted water into tunnels. Hsiao Lin Villagers inititally assumed tunnel blasting caused the landslides that destroyed their village. But long term experiments and surveys prove tunnel blasting had nothing to do with the destruction of the village. Construction on the diversion tunnel was halted all the same. The east outlet of the diversion tunnel runs the risk of being buried at any moment, because the Laonong Creek bed has been raised. Even if it is built, it may not be able to divert much water.
More fundamentally, the problem was the government waited too long. The Three National Land Use Laws intended to protect national lands have been delayed for over five years. The limited amount of usable land on Taiwan has been left in limbo, under non-sustainable conditions, unprotected by National Land Protection Laws. Cumulative erosion resulted in the failure to conserve national lands.
Given such developments, post-disaster reconstruction or disaster prevention requires swift passage of the Three National Land Protection Laws. Only then can we begin land surveying, verifying the safety of each and every tract of land, verifying use restrictions, expanding land restoration, reducing man made contributions to natural disasters.
莫拉克惡名除籍，但教訓應當記取
【聯合報╱社論】 2011.08.08
梅花颱風過門而去，莫拉克八八風災今日屆滿兩周年。莫拉克是世紀災難，颱風名冊上已因其惡名昭彰而將之除籍，但我們應將它的教訓記取下來。
莫拉克颱風導致小林村滅村，是讓全球震驚的天災，已然成為全世界災害研究的重要教材。許多國家派專家前往獻肚山勘查，希望找出蛛絲馬跡，其中日本的努力最為國人嘆服。日本第一時間派專家來考察，確認大面積地滑之前地表會出現岩石蠕動現象（Rock Creep），隨即展開日本全境國土普查，找出潛在的大面積地滑區域並發布預警。相對於此，台灣自己卻幾乎沒有動作。
至於在獻肚山崩山前偵測到的低頻訊號，希望能對大面積地滑的預警機制提供教材，更是國際科學界現下的大熱門。至少英、日、美都有好幾組跨國研究團隊投入研究，希望早一步發展出對人類有重大貢獻的地滑或地震預警機制。相形之下，台灣處在自然災害的高危險區，因應動作卻顯得不夠積極。
兩年來，政府推動災後重建工作，無論人員或物資投入，較以往災後重建，規模、效率雖積極得多，但復原的程度卻不如預期；尤其是水庫、道路等基礎系統的復原，至今仍找不到長治久安的對策。關鍵原因是這些牽涉到國土計畫的復建任務，除非居於上位的國土三法通過立法，能夠到位主導，否則難有治本的功效。
如果十二年前的九二一震災對台灣的傷害是國土的深層解構，那莫拉克則是在已然解構、鬆脫的國土上，潑下數以億噸的降水，讓這塊土地加速蝕解。高雄小林村、台東太麻里鄉、南投陳有蘭溪上游原鄉的沖刷崩解都如是。
兩年來，災區復原工作在立法院第一時間通過重建特別條例，編列特別預算，中央到地方都設有專責推動人員編組，確實做出一定成績；包括罹難、失依災民的撫恤、安置及照顧，興建組合屋及永久住宅，產業重建、甚至高危險區遷村等，均見一定績效；政府部門的防災對策也有相當升級，包括從中央到地方的防災地圖製作，救災指揮官確認由鄉鎮區長擔綱，都是紮根的動作。
但是，在公路、橋樑等基礎重建方面，以「一籌莫展」來形容應不算過當。八八水災的重災區高屏溪發源地，高雄市那瑪夏、桃源、小林等區的省道公路柔腸寸斷，跨過分水埡口到另一重災區陳有蘭溪上游的鄉村，至今也無復原的根本對策。雖然訂出修建永久性道路或橋樑的期程，但怎麼做？至今未敢率然決定。
以公路復建為例，高市那瑪夏、民族等區道路柔腸寸斷，兩年來的復建，始終僅止於修築鋼構、貨櫃、涵管等的便道或便橋，並沒有永久性的道路或橋樑興建；地方抗議遭二等國民待遇，但公路單位面對八八風災後九千四百萬噸淤砂瞬間抬升三十公尺的荖濃溪等河床，確實遲遲思考不出根本應對之道。這兩年來，山區一有豪大雨，便道、便橋便被摧枯拉朽般遭直推入海；十幾座一再復建的便道、便橋，前不久因米雷颱風引進的西南氣流，又有一半「逕流入海」。
荖濃溪等災區河床的瞬間抬升，影響的不只是公路或橋樑復建。知名的曾文溪越域引水隧道，小林村民原認為炸隧道引發獻肚山崩是滅村主因，但長時間的實驗及調查已證實滅村與炸隧道無關；然而，引水隧道仍難逃停工命運，關鍵的原因是在引水隧道東口因為荖濃溪溪床抬升，隨時有埋掉引水隧道口的可能，即使蓋成也引不了水。
更根本、也是蹉跎太久的，是攸關確保國土安全的國土三法立法延宕已不止五年，以致台灣有限面積的土地利用，一直處在不永續、無國土安全概念的細碎處置，致這些巨量的「蠶食」累積擴大，造成了國土無以存續。
事到如今，不論為了災後重建或防災於未然，國土三法皆應及早通過，如此才能及早辦理國土普查，確認每塊土地的安全屬性，進而確認利用限制，進而展開國土復育，降低人為因素增加災害的規模。
United Daily News editorial (Taipei, Taiwan, ROC)
A Translation
August 8, 2011
Summary: Typhoon Muifa brushed past and left. Today is the second anniversary of Typhoon Morakot. Typhoon Morakot, which struck in 2009, was the disaster of the century. This notorious typhoon is now history. But its lessons must not be forgotten. Post-disaster reconstruction or disaster prevention requires swift passage of the Three National Land Protection Laws. Only then can we begin land surveying, verifying the safety of each and every tract of land, verifying use restrictions, expanding land restoration, reducing man made contributions to natural disasters.
Full Text below:
Typhoon Muifa brushed past and left. Today is the second anniversary of Typhoon Morakot. Typhoon Morakot, which struck in 2009, was the disaster of the century. This notorious typhoon is now history. But its lessons must not be forgotten.
Typhoon Morakot wiped Hsiao Lin Village off the map. It was a natural disaster that shocked the world. It has become important research material for disaster researchers the world over. Many countries have send experts to Mount Zion to investigate, in the hope of finding clues. In particular, Japan's efforts have commanded respect. The first time Japan sent experts to investigate, they confirmed that large areas showed signs of rock creep. This was followed by a survey of the entire land area of Japan. The survey identified potential slide areas and issued warnings. By contrast, authorities on Taiwan took almost no action.
Before the Mount Zion landslide, low frequency signals were detected. Investigators hope this will contribute to an early-warning mechanism for large scale landslides. The subject has been of great interest to the international scientific community. Multinational research teams from Britain, Japan, and the United States are investigating. They hope to develop an early warning mechanism that will benefit mankind, by making a significant contribution to landslide or earthquake prediction. Taiwan is situated in a region prone to natural disasters. Yet political leaders on Taiwan have clearly been lax in their response.
For the past two years, the government has promoted post-disaster reconstruction. In both men and materiel, its reconstruction efforts have been considerably more aggressive than in the past. They have been larger in scale, and more efficient in execution. Nevertheless, the recovery has been disappointing. This is especially true for reservoirs, roads, and other infrastructure. As of today, long lasting solutions have yet to be found. The key reason is the potential impact they may have on the National Land Rehabilitation Program. The legislature must pass the required national land use laws. Only then can officials take charge. Otherwise it will remain difficult to effect any permanent cures.
The massive 9/21 Earthquake struck 12 years ago. It wreaked havoc on the geological structures beneath the island. Typhoon Morakot inundated that already fractured and loose earth with hundreds of thousands of tons of precipitation. It accelerated this soil erosion. As a result, Hsiao Lin Village in Kaohsiung, Taimali Township in Taitung, and Chen Youlan Creek Township in Nantou all suffered landslides.
The Legislative Yuan approved special regulations and a special budget for disaster recovery and disaster reconstruction two years ago. Central and local governments have dedicated special staff to the problem. They have made real progress. They have sheltered, cared for, and subsidized disaster victims. They have built prefabricated and permanent housing units. They have begun economic renewal. They have relocated entire villages away from high-risk areas. In this, they have done well. The government has significantly upgraded its disaster response ability. Central and local governments have published disaster prevention maps. Rescue relief officials have affirmed that village, township, and district officials are in charge. These are all useful actions.
But it has done virtually nothing vis a vis the reconstruction of roads, bridges, and other infrastructure. The 8/8 Floods heavily impacted the headwaters of Kaoping Creek. The Provincial Highway, which runs through Namasia, Taoyuan, and Hsiao Lin districts in Kaohsiung City, was cut. On the other side of Feng Shui Ya Kou, villages on the upper reaches of the Chen Youlan Creek constitute another kind of disaster area. As of today, no reconstruction has initiated whatsoever. The construction of permanent roads or bridges is anticipated. But how will they go about it? As of today, no one has had the courage to make any decisions.
Consider road reconstruction. Roads in Namasia, Minzhu, and other districts in Kaohsiung City, were cut. Two years of reconstruction have been limited to the repair of steel structures, freight containers, culverts, sidewalks, or temporary bridges, No permanent roads or bridges have been constructed. Local protestors were accorded second-class citizen treatment. The 8/8 Floods dumped 94 million tons of silt into Laonong Creek, raising the creekbed 30 meters. Highway authorities have no response. Over the past two years, whenever it rains in the mountain regions, pathways and temporary bridges are all swept into the sea like so much flotsam. A dozen or more reconstructed pathways and temporary bridges were battered by southwest winds from Typhoon Milei. Half of them were washed into the sea
Creek beds in Laonong Creek and other disaster areas were suddenly raised. This affected road or bridge reconstruction. The well-known Tsengwen Creek overflowed and diverted water into tunnels. Hsiao Lin Villagers inititally assumed tunnel blasting caused the landslides that destroyed their village. But long term experiments and surveys prove tunnel blasting had nothing to do with the destruction of the village. Construction on the diversion tunnel was halted all the same. The east outlet of the diversion tunnel runs the risk of being buried at any moment, because the Laonong Creek bed has been raised. Even if it is built, it may not be able to divert much water.
More fundamentally, the problem was the government waited too long. The Three National Land Use Laws intended to protect national lands have been delayed for over five years. The limited amount of usable land on Taiwan has been left in limbo, under non-sustainable conditions, unprotected by National Land Protection Laws. Cumulative erosion resulted in the failure to conserve national lands.
Given such developments, post-disaster reconstruction or disaster prevention requires swift passage of the Three National Land Protection Laws. Only then can we begin land surveying, verifying the safety of each and every tract of land, verifying use restrictions, expanding land restoration, reducing man made contributions to natural disasters.
莫拉克惡名除籍，但教訓應當記取
【聯合報╱社論】 2011.08.08
梅花颱風過門而去，莫拉克八八風災今日屆滿兩周年。莫拉克是世紀災難，颱風名冊上已因其惡名昭彰而將之除籍，但我們應將它的教訓記取下來。
莫拉克颱風導致小林村滅村，是讓全球震驚的天災，已然成為全世界災害研究的重要教材。許多國家派專家前往獻肚山勘查，希望找出蛛絲馬跡，其中日本的努力最為國人嘆服。日本第一時間派專家來考察，確認大面積地滑之前地表會出現岩石蠕動現象（Rock Creep），隨即展開日本全境國土普查，找出潛在的大面積地滑區域並發布預警。相對於此，台灣自己卻幾乎沒有動作。
至於在獻肚山崩山前偵測到的低頻訊號，希望能對大面積地滑的預警機制提供教材，更是國際科學界現下的大熱門。至少英、日、美都有好幾組跨國研究團隊投入研究，希望早一步發展出對人類有重大貢獻的地滑或地震預警機制。相形之下，台灣處在自然災害的高危險區，因應動作卻顯得不夠積極。
兩年來，政府推動災後重建工作，無論人員或物資投入，較以往災後重建，規模、效率雖積極得多，但復原的程度卻不如預期；尤其是水庫、道路等基礎系統的復原，至今仍找不到長治久安的對策。關鍵原因是這些牽涉到國土計畫的復建任務，除非居於上位的國土三法通過立法，能夠到位主導，否則難有治本的功效。
如果十二年前的九二一震災對台灣的傷害是國土的深層解構，那莫拉克則是在已然解構、鬆脫的國土上，潑下數以億噸的降水，讓這塊土地加速蝕解。高雄小林村、台東太麻里鄉、南投陳有蘭溪上游原鄉的沖刷崩解都如是。
兩年來，災區復原工作在立法院第一時間通過重建特別條例，編列特別預算，中央到地方都設有專責推動人員編組，確實做出一定成績；包括罹難、失依災民的撫恤、安置及照顧，興建組合屋及永久住宅，產業重建、甚至高危險區遷村等，均見一定績效；政府部門的防災對策也有相當升級，包括從中央到地方的防災地圖製作，救災指揮官確認由鄉鎮區長擔綱，都是紮根的動作。
但是，在公路、橋樑等基礎重建方面，以「一籌莫展」來形容應不算過當。八八水災的重災區高屏溪發源地，高雄市那瑪夏、桃源、小林等區的省道公路柔腸寸斷，跨過分水埡口到另一重災區陳有蘭溪上游的鄉村，至今也無復原的根本對策。雖然訂出修建永久性道路或橋樑的期程，但怎麼做？至今未敢率然決定。
以公路復建為例，高市那瑪夏、民族等區道路柔腸寸斷，兩年來的復建，始終僅止於修築鋼構、貨櫃、涵管等的便道或便橋，並沒有永久性的道路或橋樑興建；地方抗議遭二等國民待遇，但公路單位面對八八風災後九千四百萬噸淤砂瞬間抬升三十公尺的荖濃溪等河床，確實遲遲思考不出根本應對之道。這兩年來，山區一有豪大雨，便道、便橋便被摧枯拉朽般遭直推入海；十幾座一再復建的便道、便橋，前不久因米雷颱風引進的西南氣流，又有一半「逕流入海」。
荖濃溪等災區河床的瞬間抬升，影響的不只是公路或橋樑復建。知名的曾文溪越域引水隧道，小林村民原認為炸隧道引發獻肚山崩是滅村主因，但長時間的實驗及調查已證實滅村與炸隧道無關；然而，引水隧道仍難逃停工命運，關鍵的原因是在引水隧道東口因為荖濃溪溪床抬升，隨時有埋掉引水隧道口的可能，即使蓋成也引不了水。
更根本、也是蹉跎太久的，是攸關確保國土安全的國土三法立法延宕已不止五年，以致台灣有限面積的土地利用，一直處在不永續、無國土安全概念的細碎處置，致這些巨量的「蠶食」累積擴大，造成了國土無以存續。
事到如今，不論為了災後重建或防災於未然，國土三法皆應及早通過，如此才能及早辦理國土普查，確認每塊土地的安全屬性，進而確認利用限制，進而展開國土復育，降低人為因素增加災害的規模。
Thursday, August 4, 2011
The Ministry of Foreign Affairs Must Tighten Discipline
The Ministry of Foreign Affairs Must Tighten Discipline
China Times editorial (Taipei, Taiwan, ROC)
A Translation
August 4, 2011
Summary: Former Representative to Fiji Victor Chin is suspected of having an affair with one Ms. Kurokawa, a secretary at the Japanese Embassy. A Ministry of Foreign Affairs ad hoc group has investigated and found Victor Chin guilty of corruption and administrative negligence, and suspended him, The case will be referred to the Independent Commission Against Corruption and the Control Yuan. The conduct of diplomatic personnel may affect national security. That is why this matter must not be taken lightly. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs should work hand in hand with the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Japan, and uncover the facts as soon as possible.
Full Text below:
Former Representative to Fiji Victor Chin is suspected of having an affair with one Ms. Kurokawa, a secretary at the Japanese Embassy. A Ministry of Foreign Affairs ad hoc group has investigated and found Victor Chin guilty of corruption and administrative negligence, and suspended him, The case will be referred to the Independent Commission Against Corruption and the Control Yuan. The conduct of diplomatic personnel may affect national security. That is why this matter must not be taken lightly. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs should work hand in hand with the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Japan, and uncover the facts as soon as possible.
When legislators first revealed the affair, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs accepted Victor Chin's explanation and stood behind his claim of innocence. But an investigative team traveled to Fiji and interviewed staffers at the de facto embassy, overseas Chinese, and other witnesses. After gaining access to evidence relating to the case, it learned the situation was not that simple. Security guards at the official residence saw Kurokawa entering and exiting the official residence freely more than once. She was not accompanied by Victor Chin. This violated the security requirements for offices abroad. Female hairs were even found in the bathtub at the official residence. Further confirmation is required, but there is at least physical evidence that a woman stayed overnight.
Chin is believed to have given Kurokawa a pearl necklace, Chin said he bought four necklaces and four designer pens to give to politicians in Fiji. The last necklace however, was not given away. The investigative team found a necklace at the official residence. The weight and design was different from those originally purchased. Some suspect Chin bought it with cash only after legislators broke the news. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs has therefore found Chin guilty of corruption. It has suspended Chin and referred the case to the Control Yuan and the Ministry of Justice ICAC for further investigation.
Ministry of Foreign Affairs investigators found that Chin may have filed false reimbursement claims for banquets, He may have charged private meals to official accounts. In 2006, Chin began applying for subsidies for family members. Beginning in February of the following year, his wife ceased accompanying him. Yet Chin continued applying for and receiving the subsidies. He applied for and received 44 months worth of subsidies, amounting to over 630,000 NT.
In fact, Chin was previously implicated over a case of red wine. This falsified documents case took place just before Chin was transferred to New Zealand. In order to use up the North American Division's "Foreign Affairs Administrative Expenses," Chin instructed former North American Division Department Chief Yang Ching-hui to spend over 210,000 NT purchasing 36 bottles of red wine. He intended to use them as official gifts, after he was assigned to his new post in New Zealand, Later it was discovered that Chin falsified the vouchers. Chin claimed the funds were used to entertain American and Canadian officials posted to Taiwan.
Some people may consider such personal affairs private matters. But diplomats are involved in matters of state security. These include the establishment and promotion of diplomatic relations with other countries, and the content of negotiations. Therefore diplomats cannot afford to be lax about their personal conduct, Their conduct may have serious consequences.
For example, Mainland China assigned a "Mata Hari" to seduce a Japanese diplomat. They threatened to expose him unless he revealed diplomatic secrets. Eventually the diplomat committed suicide. Luo Hsien-che, an ROC diplomat, became an informant after losing his head over a woman. Former U.S. State Department Deputy Assistant Secretary of State Donald Keyser became obsessed with Chen Nian-chi, an ROC National Security Bureau official assigned to Washington. The affair rocked Taipei/Washington relations. Keyser was discredited and forced to resign.
Typically men go wrong, first over money, second over sex, or the two together. Diplomats are privy to diplomatic secrets. They may fall prey to "Mata Haris." An extra-marital affair or corruption may leave them susceptible to extortion. This may result in leaks of secret information, damaging to national security. This is why every nation has rigorous loyalty tests and behavior monitoring procedures for high-level personnel with access to secret information. A single individual's weakness or slip up, can jeopardize an entire nation. The price is too high. The risk is too great, Extramarital affairs for diplomats cannot be seen as a purely private matter.
Consider the incident as a whole. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs was clearly lax in its oversight procedures. It had too much faith in Chin's one sided account. Now the first priority is to conduct a thorough investigation to get to the bottom of the matter, All doubts must be allayed. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs must dispatch investigators to Fiji. It must work with Japan's Ministry of Foreign Affairs to uncover the truth. If Victor Chin and Aiko Kurokawa did not have an affair, they must be cleared of such suspicions.
Victor Chin has been implicated in several scandals. These scandals Involve a pearl necklace, red wine, banquets, telephone charges, and subsidies to family members. This shows that the Ministry of Foreign Affairs has long been negligent in its auditing procedures. Gifts to foreign dignitaries or their wives enable us to build relationships with them, One can of course come back later and request reimbursement. Usually such gifts are purchased in bulk. Considerable time may elapse before one needs to an appropriate gift for another foreign dignitary, The Ministry of Foreign Affairs must trust diplomatic personnel to deal with such matters on their own. But after all, this is hard-earned taxpayer money, The auditing process must not become a mere formality, Otherwise it will be impossible to prevent the private use of public funds. This is corruption, and inexcusable.
The Taipei District Prosecutor's Office has recently investigated the case. The result has been a rare example of concurrent investigations by the Control Yuan, the Independent Commission Against Corruption, and the Bureau of Investigation. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs is cooperating with the investigation to uncover the truth, But it must also take the opportunity to review its audit oversight mechanisms, It must close the holes as soon as possible, It must strengthen internal discipline, in order to avoid similar incidents.
中時電子報 新聞
中國時報 2011.08.05
社論－外交部須對外館管理上緊發條
本報訊
前駐斐濟代表秦日新疑似與日本女外交官有染，外交部專案小組日前完成調查，認定秦日新涉嫌貪瀆及行政疏失情節重大，即日起予以停職，並將全案移送廉政署及監察院。外交人員的操守可以關係到國家安全，絕對不容輕忽；而外交部也應該尋求與日本外務省合作，儘早釐清事實真相。
此事在立委爆料時，外交部一開始也接受秦日新的解說而力挺其清白。但在組成調查小組遠赴斐濟實地訪談館員、僑界等證人，並調閱搜查相關事證之後，卻發現狀況並不單純。包括官邸警衛不止一次看到黑川自由進出官邸，甚至沒有秦日新陪同，違反了駐外館處的安全規定。甚至還傳出官邸浴缸發現女性毛髮，雖然未獲證實，但至少確已發現女性留宿的物證。
至於贈送珍珠項鍊給黑川之事，秦日新辯稱曾買了四串項鍊及四支名筆要送給斐濟政要，但有一串項鍊最後未送出。但調查小組在官邸找到的項鍊型號、重量和款式都與當初購買的項鍊不符，疑似是立委踢爆後秦才以現金購買。外交部因此認定秦日新確有貪瀆行為，決定立即將秦日新停職，並移送監察院與法務部廉政署調查。
外交部調查還發現，秦日新疑似虛報宴客名單及地點，拿私人餐費報公帳。而秦日新自二○○六年開始申領眷屬補助費，但隔年二月起配偶未隨行，秦卻未停領，前後溢領補助費四十四個月、超過六十三萬元。
其實秦日新之前還涉及了一椿紅酒案。這起偽造文書案，是秦日新在調任紐西蘭代表前，為了消化北美司的「外交事務管理費」，交代前北美司科長楊慶輝花廿一萬餘元購買卅六瓶紅酒，準備赴紐西蘭履新時做公務贈禮之用，事後被查出這筆錢涉嫌偽造宴請美、加駐台人員的名目核銷。
也許有人認為個人感情出軌屬於私生活，但外交官的許多業務涉及國家機密，包括與其他國家的建交進度、談判內容等等，因此品格操守尤其不能馬虎鬆懈，有些狀況甚至可能帶來嚴重後果。
例如，中國大陸便發生過派風月女子色誘日本外交官後，以此為把柄要脅洩露外交機密，逼得該外交官最後走上自殺一途。台灣羅賢哲之所以成為共諜，也是敗在色字頭上。而前美國國務院副助理國務卿凱德磊迷戀台灣國安局駐美人員程念慈，事情爆發引發台美轟動，凱德磊也身敗名裂黯然去職。
通常，男人會出亂子，一是為財，一是為色，或者兩個一起來。外交人員知曉許多外交機密，如果被美女間諜攻陷，或者婚外情被有心人拿來勒索，乃至Ａ錢被逮到把柄，導致機密資訊外流，可能會對國家安全造成重大損傷。這也是為什麼，各國對能夠接觸高層級機密的人員都有嚴密的忠誠考核與行為監督。因為一個人的軟弱失足，可能會危及整個國家，代價實在太大，風險也實在太高，絕對不能只視為個人行為。
回顧整起事件，外交部顯然在考核監督方面太過鬆散，一開始又過分相信秦日新的片面之辭。現在最重要的是徹底查個水落石出，把所有爭議疑點一一釐清，除了派員親赴斐濟調查之外，也應該透過管道要求取得日本外務省的合作，共同查明事實的真相。如果秦日新和黑川愛子之間沒有出軌，也要還人家一個清白。
秦日新的這幾件案子，涉及了珍珠項鍊、紅酒、宴飲電話費、眷屬補助等多項爭議，而這也反映了外交部門長久以來稽核方面的問題。贈送禮品給外國政要或夫人時，是為了建立關係拉攏對方，當然不可能還要人家寫收條回來報帳。禮品通常會一次購買相當的數量，日後再依不同對象選擇適當的禮品相贈，時間可能拉得很長，因此在相當程度上，外交部是信賴並授權外交人員在一定範圍內自行處理的。不過畢竟仍然出自民脂民膏，稽核程序不能流於形式，否則難以阻絕出現公禮私用的弊端。那是侵占公款的貪瀆行為，不可原諒。
台北地檢署日前已先分案調查，形成監察院、廉政署、調查局三路偵辦秦日新案的罕見局面。外交部除了配合調查釐清事實外，也應該藉機徹底檢討現行稽核監督機制的疏失，及早補好破網，並且加強整飭內部風氣，才能避免類似事件重演。
China Times editorial (Taipei, Taiwan, ROC)
A Translation
August 4, 2011
Summary: Former Representative to Fiji Victor Chin is suspected of having an affair with one Ms. Kurokawa, a secretary at the Japanese Embassy. A Ministry of Foreign Affairs ad hoc group has investigated and found Victor Chin guilty of corruption and administrative negligence, and suspended him, The case will be referred to the Independent Commission Against Corruption and the Control Yuan. The conduct of diplomatic personnel may affect national security. That is why this matter must not be taken lightly. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs should work hand in hand with the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Japan, and uncover the facts as soon as possible.
Full Text below:
Former Representative to Fiji Victor Chin is suspected of having an affair with one Ms. Kurokawa, a secretary at the Japanese Embassy. A Ministry of Foreign Affairs ad hoc group has investigated and found Victor Chin guilty of corruption and administrative negligence, and suspended him, The case will be referred to the Independent Commission Against Corruption and the Control Yuan. The conduct of diplomatic personnel may affect national security. That is why this matter must not be taken lightly. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs should work hand in hand with the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Japan, and uncover the facts as soon as possible.
When legislators first revealed the affair, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs accepted Victor Chin's explanation and stood behind his claim of innocence. But an investigative team traveled to Fiji and interviewed staffers at the de facto embassy, overseas Chinese, and other witnesses. After gaining access to evidence relating to the case, it learned the situation was not that simple. Security guards at the official residence saw Kurokawa entering and exiting the official residence freely more than once. She was not accompanied by Victor Chin. This violated the security requirements for offices abroad. Female hairs were even found in the bathtub at the official residence. Further confirmation is required, but there is at least physical evidence that a woman stayed overnight.
Chin is believed to have given Kurokawa a pearl necklace, Chin said he bought four necklaces and four designer pens to give to politicians in Fiji. The last necklace however, was not given away. The investigative team found a necklace at the official residence. The weight and design was different from those originally purchased. Some suspect Chin bought it with cash only after legislators broke the news. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs has therefore found Chin guilty of corruption. It has suspended Chin and referred the case to the Control Yuan and the Ministry of Justice ICAC for further investigation.
Ministry of Foreign Affairs investigators found that Chin may have filed false reimbursement claims for banquets, He may have charged private meals to official accounts. In 2006, Chin began applying for subsidies for family members. Beginning in February of the following year, his wife ceased accompanying him. Yet Chin continued applying for and receiving the subsidies. He applied for and received 44 months worth of subsidies, amounting to over 630,000 NT.
In fact, Chin was previously implicated over a case of red wine. This falsified documents case took place just before Chin was transferred to New Zealand. In order to use up the North American Division's "Foreign Affairs Administrative Expenses," Chin instructed former North American Division Department Chief Yang Ching-hui to spend over 210,000 NT purchasing 36 bottles of red wine. He intended to use them as official gifts, after he was assigned to his new post in New Zealand, Later it was discovered that Chin falsified the vouchers. Chin claimed the funds were used to entertain American and Canadian officials posted to Taiwan.
Some people may consider such personal affairs private matters. But diplomats are involved in matters of state security. These include the establishment and promotion of diplomatic relations with other countries, and the content of negotiations. Therefore diplomats cannot afford to be lax about their personal conduct, Their conduct may have serious consequences.
For example, Mainland China assigned a "Mata Hari" to seduce a Japanese diplomat. They threatened to expose him unless he revealed diplomatic secrets. Eventually the diplomat committed suicide. Luo Hsien-che, an ROC diplomat, became an informant after losing his head over a woman. Former U.S. State Department Deputy Assistant Secretary of State Donald Keyser became obsessed with Chen Nian-chi, an ROC National Security Bureau official assigned to Washington. The affair rocked Taipei/Washington relations. Keyser was discredited and forced to resign.
Typically men go wrong, first over money, second over sex, or the two together. Diplomats are privy to diplomatic secrets. They may fall prey to "Mata Haris." An extra-marital affair or corruption may leave them susceptible to extortion. This may result in leaks of secret information, damaging to national security. This is why every nation has rigorous loyalty tests and behavior monitoring procedures for high-level personnel with access to secret information. A single individual's weakness or slip up, can jeopardize an entire nation. The price is too high. The risk is too great, Extramarital affairs for diplomats cannot be seen as a purely private matter.
Consider the incident as a whole. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs was clearly lax in its oversight procedures. It had too much faith in Chin's one sided account. Now the first priority is to conduct a thorough investigation to get to the bottom of the matter, All doubts must be allayed. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs must dispatch investigators to Fiji. It must work with Japan's Ministry of Foreign Affairs to uncover the truth. If Victor Chin and Aiko Kurokawa did not have an affair, they must be cleared of such suspicions.
Victor Chin has been implicated in several scandals. These scandals Involve a pearl necklace, red wine, banquets, telephone charges, and subsidies to family members. This shows that the Ministry of Foreign Affairs has long been negligent in its auditing procedures. Gifts to foreign dignitaries or their wives enable us to build relationships with them, One can of course come back later and request reimbursement. Usually such gifts are purchased in bulk. Considerable time may elapse before one needs to an appropriate gift for another foreign dignitary, The Ministry of Foreign Affairs must trust diplomatic personnel to deal with such matters on their own. But after all, this is hard-earned taxpayer money, The auditing process must not become a mere formality, Otherwise it will be impossible to prevent the private use of public funds. This is corruption, and inexcusable.
The Taipei District Prosecutor's Office has recently investigated the case. The result has been a rare example of concurrent investigations by the Control Yuan, the Independent Commission Against Corruption, and the Bureau of Investigation. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs is cooperating with the investigation to uncover the truth, But it must also take the opportunity to review its audit oversight mechanisms, It must close the holes as soon as possible, It must strengthen internal discipline, in order to avoid similar incidents.
中時電子報 新聞
中國時報 2011.08.05
社論－外交部須對外館管理上緊發條
本報訊
前駐斐濟代表秦日新疑似與日本女外交官有染，外交部專案小組日前完成調查，認定秦日新涉嫌貪瀆及行政疏失情節重大，即日起予以停職，並將全案移送廉政署及監察院。外交人員的操守可以關係到國家安全，絕對不容輕忽；而外交部也應該尋求與日本外務省合作，儘早釐清事實真相。
此事在立委爆料時，外交部一開始也接受秦日新的解說而力挺其清白。但在組成調查小組遠赴斐濟實地訪談館員、僑界等證人，並調閱搜查相關事證之後，卻發現狀況並不單純。包括官邸警衛不止一次看到黑川自由進出官邸，甚至沒有秦日新陪同，違反了駐外館處的安全規定。甚至還傳出官邸浴缸發現女性毛髮，雖然未獲證實，但至少確已發現女性留宿的物證。
至於贈送珍珠項鍊給黑川之事，秦日新辯稱曾買了四串項鍊及四支名筆要送給斐濟政要，但有一串項鍊最後未送出。但調查小組在官邸找到的項鍊型號、重量和款式都與當初購買的項鍊不符，疑似是立委踢爆後秦才以現金購買。外交部因此認定秦日新確有貪瀆行為，決定立即將秦日新停職，並移送監察院與法務部廉政署調查。
外交部調查還發現，秦日新疑似虛報宴客名單及地點，拿私人餐費報公帳。而秦日新自二○○六年開始申領眷屬補助費，但隔年二月起配偶未隨行，秦卻未停領，前後溢領補助費四十四個月、超過六十三萬元。
其實秦日新之前還涉及了一椿紅酒案。這起偽造文書案，是秦日新在調任紐西蘭代表前，為了消化北美司的「外交事務管理費」，交代前北美司科長楊慶輝花廿一萬餘元購買卅六瓶紅酒，準備赴紐西蘭履新時做公務贈禮之用，事後被查出這筆錢涉嫌偽造宴請美、加駐台人員的名目核銷。
也許有人認為個人感情出軌屬於私生活，但外交官的許多業務涉及國家機密，包括與其他國家的建交進度、談判內容等等，因此品格操守尤其不能馬虎鬆懈，有些狀況甚至可能帶來嚴重後果。
例如，中國大陸便發生過派風月女子色誘日本外交官後，以此為把柄要脅洩露外交機密，逼得該外交官最後走上自殺一途。台灣羅賢哲之所以成為共諜，也是敗在色字頭上。而前美國國務院副助理國務卿凱德磊迷戀台灣國安局駐美人員程念慈，事情爆發引發台美轟動，凱德磊也身敗名裂黯然去職。
通常，男人會出亂子，一是為財，一是為色，或者兩個一起來。外交人員知曉許多外交機密，如果被美女間諜攻陷，或者婚外情被有心人拿來勒索，乃至Ａ錢被逮到把柄，導致機密資訊外流，可能會對國家安全造成重大損傷。這也是為什麼，各國對能夠接觸高層級機密的人員都有嚴密的忠誠考核與行為監督。因為一個人的軟弱失足，可能會危及整個國家，代價實在太大，風險也實在太高，絕對不能只視為個人行為。
回顧整起事件，外交部顯然在考核監督方面太過鬆散，一開始又過分相信秦日新的片面之辭。現在最重要的是徹底查個水落石出，把所有爭議疑點一一釐清，除了派員親赴斐濟調查之外，也應該透過管道要求取得日本外務省的合作，共同查明事實的真相。如果秦日新和黑川愛子之間沒有出軌，也要還人家一個清白。
秦日新的這幾件案子，涉及了珍珠項鍊、紅酒、宴飲電話費、眷屬補助等多項爭議，而這也反映了外交部門長久以來稽核方面的問題。贈送禮品給外國政要或夫人時，是為了建立關係拉攏對方，當然不可能還要人家寫收條回來報帳。禮品通常會一次購買相當的數量，日後再依不同對象選擇適當的禮品相贈，時間可能拉得很長，因此在相當程度上，外交部是信賴並授權外交人員在一定範圍內自行處理的。不過畢竟仍然出自民脂民膏，稽核程序不能流於形式，否則難以阻絕出現公禮私用的弊端。那是侵占公款的貪瀆行為，不可原諒。
台北地檢署日前已先分案調查，形成監察院、廉政署、調查局三路偵辦秦日新案的罕見局面。外交部除了配合調查釐清事實外，也應該藉機徹底檢討現行稽核監督機制的疏失，及早補好破網，並且加強整飭內部風氣，才能避免類似事件重演。
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