Beijing Washington Balance of Power Spells End to Taipei's Two-Pronged Strategy

Beijing Washington Balance of Power Spells End to Taipei's Two-Pronged Strategy
China Times Editorial (Taipei, Taiwan, ROC) 
A Translation 
September 23, 2016

Executive Summary: President Tsai must disabuse herself of the fantasy that she can ally with the US and Japan to oppose China. Instead, she should proclaim that the two sides of the Taiwan Strait “belong to one democratic China", and jointly ensure peace within the Taiwan Strait. She should propose a "Taiwan Strait Peace Initiative", changing Taiwan's long-held view of Mainland China as its enemy, legally and militarily.

Full Text Below:

Harry Harding is former US President Bill Clinton's China policy consultant. Recently he noted in a seminar at the Brookings Institution two extremely unfavorable scenarios in the Taiwan Strait. In the first, Beijing loses patience. In the second, Washington abandons Taiwan. If Washington abandons Taiwan, two more scenarios emerge. One, Washington uses Taiwan as a bargaining chip with Beijing, and the two reach an agreement. Two, an increasing powerful Mainland forces the US to bid farewell to Taiwan.

At the same venue, Bonnie Glaser from the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said that abandoning Taiwan is fundamentally contrary to the interests of the United States. She said that until the Chinese economy is stronger and its politics more open, the people of Taiwan may want a different relationship with the Mainland. However, former American Institute in Taiwan Chairman Richard Bush warned that when overall US strategy changes, or when the balance of power between the United States and Mainland China changes beyond a certain point, the United States may change its security commitments to Taiwan. What will the next US administration do? That will depend on officials responsible for Taiwan policy. Once the US decides that the military and economic costs of the Taiwan Relations Act are too high, it is likely to abandon Taiwan.

The US has long linked the Taiwan issue to Mainland China's internal affairs. Taiwan has long been seen by Beijing and Washington as a strategic bargaining chip. When US relations with Mainland China are strained, the Taiwan issue surfaces, and becomes the two sides' punching bag. When US relations with Mainland China are relaxed, Taiwan's importance diminishes. The discrepancy in power between Taipei and Beijing has steadily increased. Economic and trade interaction have increased, but so have disagreements over sovereignty. US and Mainland Chinese strategic competition has intensified. Cross-Strait relations have been lost in the melee. DPP leader Tsai Ing-wen has assumed power. The US must deal with a rising Mainland China. It too finds itself in a dilemma. Abandon Taiwan, and it may encourage the expansion of Mainland power in East Asia, and discredit the US in the Asian Pacific region. Back Taiwan fully against the Mainland, and it runs the risk of a shooting war. Meanwhile the widening gap in understanding between Taipei and Beijing over sovereignty, has sowed the seeds for future turmoil in the Taiwan Strait.

The US has long resorted to double deterrence. It has warned the CCP that it cannot use force against Taiwan. It has also warned the DPP that it cannot promote de jure Taiwan independence. Can it maintain the status quo? Can it maintain peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait? The US now faces a severe test. The Rand Corporation believes that the CCP will achieve air superiority in the Taiwan Strait by 2017. By 2025, the CCP's area denial capability will have increased significantly. Its strategic nuclear strike capability will be more assured. It would be hard to predict who would win in a war with the US. The only certainty is that both sides would suffer heavy losses, leaving both vulnerable. Mainland China's long-range nuclear missiles and submarine-launched JL-2 nuclear missiles have the ability to reach the continental United States. Mainstream public opinion in the United States opposes sending troops to fight on behalf of Taiwan independence.

The US government assumes that Tsai Ing-wen understands this. If the DPP disrupts cross-Strait communication channels, and military conflict erupts, that will undermine the vital interests of the United States in the Western Pacific. The Beijing authorities stress that without the 1992 Consensus, then “the cross-Strait foundation will become unstable, the earth will move, and the mountains will shake". Washington has urged Beijing to maintain flexibility and exercise restraint. But Mainland President Xi Jinping is resolute. Washington no longer dares to use psychological warfare against the Mainland. President Tsai is also DPP Chairman. She is caught between the Constitution of the Republic of China and the Taiwan Independence Party Platform. Does she want to be President of the Republic of China, Chairman of the DPP, or President of an independent Taiwan? She herself may be confused. Since her inauguration, the Presidential Office, the Executive Yuan, and deep green pressure groups have each proposed conflicting policy directions. President Tsai may wish to maintain stability. But she has sowed cross-Strait and international chaos.

If President Tsai allows DPP ministers to promote cultural Taiwan independence and collaborate with deep green pressure groups to engage in de-Sinicization, Beijing authorities will concluded that she is engaged in a two-pronged strategy. That would further undermine cross-Strait relations. It could even make Beijing lose patience, and conclude that peaceful reunification is no longer possible. Beijing may then establish a timetable for reunification, and take drastic action to deal with the Taiwan issue.

The disparity in the two sides' strength has steadily increased. So have the disagreements over sovereignty. The increasing military might of the Mainland makes the US policy of “strategic ambiguity” unsustainable. The Tsai government must exercise caution. It must be responsible for its own decisions. President Tsai must disabuse herself of the fantasy that she can ally with the US and Japan to oppose China. Instead, she should proclaim that the two sides of the Taiwan Strait “belong to one democratic China", and jointly ensure peace within the Taiwan Strait. She should propose a "Taiwan Strait Peace Initiative", changing Taiwan's long-held view of Mainland China as its enemy, legally and militarily. She should act in good faith toward both Beijing and Washington. This will enable the cessation of cross-Strait hostilities and the restoration of peace and stability. This would be in the core interests of the US, the Mainland, and Taiwan. It would also prevent the prophecy of the US abandoning Taiwan from coming true.

中美消長 台灣不能再玩兩手策略
2016/9/23 中國時報

美國前總統柯林頓的中國政策智囊何漢理（Harry Harding），日前在華府「布魯金斯研究院」研討會上指出，台海發生最壞的兩種可能狀況，第一是北京失去耐心，其次是美國放棄台灣；而「美棄台論」又分為華府以台灣為籌碼，與北京交易並達成協議，另一種則是因中國實力強大，讓美國必須跟台灣說再見。

在同場合，「戰略與國際問題研究中心」顧問葛來儀表示，放棄台灣在根本上有違美國利益，等到中國經濟更強大，政治更開放，或許台灣人民會希望與大陸有不一樣的關係。不過，美國前在台協會理事主席卜睿哲提出警訊認為，當美國整體戰略出現變化，或者美、中在東亞軍力消長達到某種程度時，美國可能會改變對台灣的安全承諾，至於未來美國政府會做什麼，很大程度取決於負責此政策官員對台灣問題的理解與判斷。一旦美國政府認為執行《台灣關係法》的軍事經濟成本及風險越來越高，「棄台論」成真的可能性將大幅上升。

台灣問題一直都是包含美國因素的中國內政議題，同時也經常被北京與華府視為「戰略緩衝」。當美中關係緊張時，台灣問題會浮上檯面，成為兩國的沙包，但美中關係和緩時，台灣的作用順勢下降。不過，由於兩岸綜合國力差距日益懸殊、經貿互動密切但主權意識分歧擴大，以及美、中兩國戰略競逐加劇，讓兩岸關係迷失在十字路口。蔡英文領導民進黨全面執政後，美國面對綜合國力茁壯的中國時，也正面臨政策兩難，一則是放棄台灣，但卻可能鼓勵中國在亞洲實力擴增，讓美國在亞太地區信用破產；另一則是全力支持台灣對抗中國，但卻必須冒著與中國開戰的風險。同時，日益擴大的兩岸主權鴻溝，正埋下今後台海地區動盪的新根源。

美國長期運用「雙重嚇阻」，一方面警告中共不可對台動武，另方面要求台灣不可推動「法理台獨」的策略，能否繼續維持台海和平穩定現狀，已經面臨嚴峻考驗。美國國防智庫「藍德公司」認為，共軍在2017年將取得台海空優，到2025年時，共軍反介入與區域拒止能量大增，戰略核武等二擊能力亦更趨穩定，美、中若開戰將勝負難料，但唯一可以確定的是，雙方都將損失慘重，讓兩國實力變得脆弱。更何況美國在共軍中長程核導彈以及巨浪二型潛射核導彈有能力攻擊本土的威脅下，美國主流民意已不可能同意出兵為保衛台獨而戰。

美國政府認為蔡英文應明白，兩岸交流溝通管道若因民進黨執政中斷，甚至引發軍事衝突，將破壞美國在西太平洋的關鍵利益。北京當局則強調，若沒有九二共識，兩岸「基礎不牢，地動山搖」。華府雖建議中方保持彈性與克制，但對大陸國家主席習近平的意志與決心已不敢視為心理戰運用。目前身兼民進黨主席的蔡總統，糾結在《中華民國憲法》與《台獨黨綱》之間，到底要當中華民國總統？民進黨總統？還是台獨總統？可能自己都已經搞不清楚。她就職以來，府院黨與深綠團體接連推出相互矛盾的政策方向，蔡總統雖想保持平衡感，卻讓兩岸與國際一頭霧水。

倘若蔡總統放任民進黨閣員力推「文化台獨」措施，並與深綠團體「去中國化」合唱雙簧，將會被北京當局解讀為玩弄兩手策略，恐進一步影響兩岸關係，甚至讓北京失去耐心，認為和平統一已無可能，將按照實現統一的時間表，斷然採取行動處理台灣問題。

台海兩岸綜合實力的懸殊差距與主權鴻溝擴大，加上美、中軍力消長新形勢，已讓美國運用兩面嚇阻的模糊戰略難以為繼，蔡政府務必要謹言慎行，並為自己的決定負責；同時蔡總統應擺脫「聯美日、抗中」迷思，發表兩岸以「同屬民主中國」政治基礎，共維台海和平穩定發展；另亦可主動提出「台海和平倡議」，改變台灣長期以大陸為假想敵的軍事戰略與法理架構，向北京與華府釋出最大誠意，讓兩岸協商中止敵對狀態，恢復和平穩定發展正道，此不僅符合美中台共同的核心利益，更能避免美國棄台論成真。