The Truth Tsai Ing-wen Needs Most To Speak

The Truth Tsai Ing-wen Needs Most To Speak
China Times Editorial (Taipei, Taiwan, ROC) 
A Translation 
September 12, 2016

Executive Summary: Tsai Ing-wen is growing weak. Ending in one fell swoop the DPP's long term dependence on the sacred cow of Taiwan independence may seem cold-blooded and ruthless. But the fact remains, it is all up to Tsai Ing-wen. Tsai Ing-wen need merely utter a single sentence, and she can silence Taiwan independence advocates forever. "The rectification of names and the authoring of a new constitution is impossible. Impossible means impossible. Lee Teng-hui couldn't do it, and I can't do it. Stop kidding yourself.”

Full Text Below:

On January 16, Tsai Ing-wen received 6.89 million votes, or 56% of all votes cast. She defeated the KMT candidate by over 3 million votes. She won because the KMT was unpopular, but also because she made a series of changes to her election platform during her campaign. In particular, she moved significantly closer to the KMT on cross-Strait policy. This won her the public trust and led to her sweeping victory.

Immediately following the election, she pledged to govern with "humility, humility, and more humility". On May 20, during her inaugural address, she made a goodwill gesture toward the Mainland. It failed to break the cross-Strait deadlock because it was incomplete. But at least it avoided an immediate “earth shattering” break between the two sides. She attempted to appoint blue camp members to her cabinet as diplomatic and cross-Strait representatives. This showed Tsai Ing-wen's desire to continue moving towards the middle. This is the right path. If Tsai's transformation succeeds, it will be good not just for Tsai, but for the DPP, for Taiwan, and for both sides of the Strait. Unfortunately the government has repeatedly flip-flopped on its policies, and the cabinet has repeatedly dropped the ball. Taiwan's economic outlook remains grim. Tsai's administration is inexperienced. It has mishandled crises. Like a hemophiliac, it can't seem to stop the bleeding. As a result Tsai Ing-wen's poll numbers have been in free fall. She has rapidly lost her credibility.

Blue camp supporters have regrouped. Support from swing voters has fallen. Deep green Taiwan independence groups have begun rubbing their hands, eager to go into action. Taiwan independence elements have blasted Tsai Ing-wen, wondering “Does she really have so little respect for Taiwan independence advocates?” Green camp elders Wu Li-pei and Koo Kuan-min have continued blasting Tsai Ing-wen. They have attacked Lin Chuan. They are ven demanding that Tsai step down after only one term. They are taking advantage of Tsai Ing-wen's weakness to pressure her, and force her back into the deep green fold. They have deliberately thrown her a bone, hoping she will turn back.

Tsai Ing-wen and the DPP have begun caving in. Tsai Ing-wen has appointed deep greens as President and Vice President of the Judicial Yuan. She has yielded to deep green pressure. Deep green influences have come into play. DPP morale has been shaken. Deputy Secretary-General Li Chun-yi echoed Taiwan independence groups, saying that “When people demand membership in the UN under the name “Taiwan”, the DPP will be there". The Tsai government immediately slapped him in the face and slammed on the brakes. But this revealed how fearful DPP politicians are of deep green pressure. When that happens, it's every man for himself, and the devil take the hindmost. The result it internal panic and chaos.

Tsai Ing-wen faces a dilemma. She must break with one of two groups of supporters. Should she break with swing voters, and cave in to Taiwan independence demands? Or should she break with Taiwan independence elements, and pick up her pace down the centrist path? Tsai Ing-wen has three choices. First consider choice number two. Continue tap dancing and continue her incrementalism. Mollify deep greens while continuing to take a centrist path. This choice may have been feasible while Tsai rode high in the polls. But now that Tsai's prestige has plummeted, she can no longer keep a lid on the deep greens. Tap dancing and incrementalism will only inspire deep greens to trip her up. It will only increase the determination of Taiwan independence forces to hijack the Tsai administration. It will only mire Taiwan in turmoil.

The worst choice however, is to pander to Taiwan independence forces and backtrack. This is extremely unwise. Leave aside for the moment cross-Strait and international strategic considerations. Taiwan independence is a dead end. Even from the perspective of mainstream public opinion on Taiwan, deep green supporters of Taiwan independence are a vanishingly small minority. Embracing Taiwan independence is not huddling in front of a warm fire in winter. It is binding oneself to a stake to be burned alive. Not only will it burn the Tsai government to a cinder, it will spell the end of the DPP as a political force.

Deep green Taiwan independence forces have made the first move. Therefore the best choice for Tsai Ing-wen, assuming she possesses the wisdom, is to use this opportunity to draw a line in the sand, and tell deep elements, “Stop kidding yourself. Taiwan independence is impossible”. If Tsai Ing-wen has the courage to do this, four things will happen. Tsai Ing-wen will have demonstrated leadership and restored her credibility. She will have liberated herself. She will ended deep green Taiwan independence power over Taiwan. The DPP must liberate itself totally from Taiwan independence influences. Only then can Tsai Ing-wen truly lead the DPP down a centrist path. Only then can the DPP ensure stable governance. Tsai Ing-wen surely realizes this. On cross-Strait relations, Tsai Ing-wen must demonstrate good faith above and beyond that embodied in the 1992 Consensus. She has the chance to to reverse in one fell swoop the current downturn in cross-Strait relations. Cross-Strait relations are the foundation of Taiwan's economy. If cross-Strait relations are good, Taiwan's economy will be good. Tsai Ing-wen's long-term crisis of governance can then be fundamentally resolved. Taiwan can then rid itself of the specter of Taiwan independence. Taiwan has squandered so much time and energy on the infeasible and impossible pipe dream of independence. Every day this source of friction is not removed, Taiwan will remain marginalized and stagnant.

Tsai Ing-wen is growing weak. Ending in one fell swoop the DPP's long term dependence on the sacred cow of Taiwan independence may seem cold-blooded and ruthless. But the fact remains, it is all up to Tsai Ing-wen. Tsai Ing-wen need merely utter a single sentence, and she can silence Taiwan independence advocates forever. "The rectification of names and the authoring of a new constitution is impossible. Impossible means impossible. Lee Teng-hui couldn't do it, and I can't do it. Stop kidding yourself.”

This sentence, uttered by former president Chen Shui-bian, was the unvarnished truth. Unfortunately Chen Shui-bian turned his back on his centrist path and reverted to Taiwan independence. Only then did he admit that Taiwan independence was self-deception. The lesson is clear. What Tsai Ing-wen needs, now more than ever, is the above words of truth.

蔡英文最該說的一句實話
2016/9/12 中國時報

1月16日蔡英文以689萬票、56%得票率，大勝國民黨300餘萬票。她之所以大勝，除了國民黨不得人心外，也得力於她選前一系列向中間調整，特別是在兩岸政策上大幅度向國民黨靠攏，才贏得人民信任，一舉完勝。

當選後她立刻宣示「謙卑、謙卑、再謙卑」的執政基調，並在520就職演講中對兩岸關係釋出善意，最終雖未能打開僵局，只被視為「未完成的答卷」，但至少避免了兩岸立刻的「地動山搖」。在剛開始的內閣人事布局上，也啟用被視為有藍營色彩的官員出任外交、兩岸等要職，都可看出蔡英文繼續向中間路線邁進的使命感與企圖心。這是正確的道路，如果蔡英文轉型成功，不僅是蔡英文、民進黨之幸，也是台灣、兩岸之幸。然而，由於政府政策反覆搖擺、內閣不斷出包、台灣經濟前景晦暗，加以蔡團隊新手上路，危機處理失當，彷彿凝血功能失去作用，一出血就難以止血，使得蔡英文民調支持度如自由落體墜落，威望資產快速流失。

藍營支持者重新凝聚、中間選民支持力度降低，深綠、台獨團體開始磨拳擦掌、蠢蠢欲動。獨派人士重批蔡英文「真的這麼看不起台獨陣營嗎？」綠營大老吳澧培、辜寬敏相繼對蔡英文開炮，除了劍指林全，甚至直接逼宮，要蔡英文只做1任就好。趁著蔡英文體弱氣虛，台獨人士認為這是對蔡壓迫的好機會，企圖逼她回防深綠取暖，故頻頻拋出套索，要綁架蔡英文走回頭路。

蔡英文和民進黨開始動搖，蔡英文在司法院正副院長提名案上，向深綠力量屈服，深綠影響力開始發揮作用；民進黨內部也軍心動搖，副祕書長李俊毅呼應台獨團體，表示：「以台灣名義加入聯合國，民進黨不會缺席。」蔡政府雖立刻打臉、踩煞車，但也顯示了民進黨政治人物憚於深綠壓力，「隨人顧性命」的現象，內部頗有蝦慌蟹亂之兆。

此時的蔡英文，已經面臨了「兩個決裂」的關鍵時刻。是要與中間路線決裂，臣服台獨派的壓力？還是與台獨派決裂，加大步伐走中間路？放在蔡英文面前的僅有三策。先談中策，繼續以小步跳舞方式，一面懷柔深綠，一面繼續走中間路線，但此路在蔡英文民調高踞巔頂時尚有可能，現在蔡英文的威望已經壓不住深綠，小步跳舞只會讓深綠人士一再趁機絆腳，反而給台獨派加大綁架力道的想像空間，台灣內部及兩岸關係都將動盪不安。

下策，則是遂了台獨派的心願，走回頭路。這是極不智之舉，先不說從兩岸與國際大局而言，台獨是台灣發展的死巷，即便從台灣內部的主流民意言，深綠台獨的支持者也是極少數，擁抱台獨，擁抱的不是冬日的暖暖包，而是自縛於炙熱的炮烙銅柱，不但會讓蔡英文政府焦肌灼膚，也是民進黨政治發展的死路。

蔡英文若有前瞻智慧，其上策是，既然台獨深綠發難在先，反是蔡英文劃清路線的機會，斷然向深綠人士表明政府立場「莫再自欺，台獨行不通」。若蔡英文有此勇氣，則將收四個效果。於蔡英文，展現不受要脅的領導魄力，重塑領導人威信，斷了台獨人士挾深綠自重擴權的盤算。於民進黨，明白斷去台獨牽制，蔡英文才能真正領導民進黨向中間路線脫胎轉型，民進黨得以穩定執政，這一點蔡英文應該非常清楚。於兩岸，也將是對大陸釋出超過承認九二共識的最大善意，有機會一舉翻轉目前低迷的兩岸關係，兩岸關係是台灣經濟之本，兩岸好、經濟好，蔡英文的中長期執政危機才能根本解決。於台灣，也可擺脫台獨幽靈糾纏。為了不可行、也不可能實現的台獨，台灣虛擲了多少時間、虛耗了多大的力氣，此一內耗病根一日不拔，台灣就難掙脫邊緣化空轉的命運。

在蔡英文逐漸走向虛弱的時候，一舉斷掉民進黨長期依賴的台獨神主牌，看起來有點「反人性」。但其實，這只在於蔡英文智慧的一念間。事實上，蔡英文只要輕巧地複述一句話，就可以讓台獨人士閉嘴：「正名制憲，做不到就是做不到。李登輝做不到，我也做不到，不要自欺欺人。」

這句話，是前總統陳水扁的名言，也是實話，可惜的是，陳水扁是從中間路線向台獨路線靠攏失敗後，才有感而發台獨自欺欺人。殷鑑在前，蔡英文最需要的，是現在就說出這句實話！