Economic Rejuvenation: Is the Government Applying Force in the Wrong Place?

Economic Rejuvenation: Is the Government Applying Force in the Wrong Place?  
United Daily News Editorial (Taipei, Taiwan, ROC) 
A Translation 
September 5, 2016

Executive Summary: Taiwanese Public Opinion Foundation polls show public approval for the new government after 100 days at only 61%, barely making the grade. Nearly 45% are dissatisfied with the government's economic record. Foundation Chairman You Ying-lung said dissatisfaction with the economy is the main reason for the president's swift decline in popularity. It also signals the end of Tsai's honeymoon period. Even pro-green poll results are like this. Polls conducted by others are even more dire. All point to the economy and cross-Strait relations as the main source of dissatisfaction.

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Taiwanese Public Opinion Foundation polls show public approval for the new government after 100 days at only 61%, barely making the grade. Nearly 45% are dissatisfied with the government's economic record. Foundation Chairman You Ying-lung said dissatisfaction with the economy is the main reason for the president's swift decline in popularity. It also signals the end of Tsai's honeymoon period. Even pro-green poll results are like this. Polls conducted by others are even more dire. All point to the economy and cross-Strait relations as the main source of dissatisfaction.

Over the past year and a half, Taiwan's economy has been in a long dark tunnel. Economic indicators call for a blue light. Exports have fallen 17 straight quarters in a row. This is the longest decline in the island's history. People are weary with the recession. They are losing patience. This was reflected in the KMT election rout, and is reflected in disappointment with the DPP. President Tsai made "economic restructuring" one of her five major policy planks. She knows people expect her to revive the economy. But the new government has blundered repeatedly. It is overwhelmed with fighting fires. There is no economic revitalization to be found. Public disappointment is spreading like a wildfire. The diminishing number of Mainland tourists continues to impact the tourism industry. Public dissatisfaction with the Lin Chuan cabinet will probably soon extend to Tsai Ing-wen herself.

Tsai Ing-wen is unable to reconcile the DPP as a political party, with her own presidency. She is unable to change Taiwan's "politics uber alles" value system. This is the chief reason the new government has been unable to grow the economy. Premier Lin Chuan may be an expert in finance. But he is not an expert in economics and industry. Also, he lacks the requisite political instincts. During the first 100 days he found himself besieged by all manner of crises large and small. He has had no time to devote to fiscal matters. As a result, the Lin Chuan cabinet may be a “cabinet of economic experts” in name, but it has been unable to jump start the fiscal engine of the nation.

The Lin Chuan cabinet appointed a number of blue camp officials. They hoped the old veteran would bring with him fresh blood, and achieve seamless integration. The Tsai government vowed “not to suspect those whom it recruited”. But somewhere along the way, it “ceased recruiting those whom it suspected”. Lin Chuan originally hoped that NDC Chairman Chen Tian-jy could establish a "Grand National Development Council", as the Executive Yuan's most authoritative and detail conscious organization. But Chen Tian-jy found himself in an awkward position within the new government. He was stigmatized as "old, blue, male”. He could not rally the troops like other political appointees who were green camp standard bearers. Therefore NDC inter-ministerial coordination of fiscal policy failed. This naturally undermined the economic outcome.

The remaining three economics and finance related ministries, the Ministry of Economic Affairs, the Ministry of Finance, and the FSC, are virtually non-existent. Minister of Economic Affairs Roy S. Lee has been struggling to implement President Tsai's "nuclear-free homeland" policy. The Ministry of Economic Affairs, from top to bottom, has been revolving around the energy question. Just what is Roy S. Lee? Minister of Energy? Or Minister of Economic Affairs? As a result, the Ministry of Economic Affairs is doing virtually none of the economic restructuring that the public cares about. The heads of the Ministry of Finance and the FSC seldom show their faces. Only when MegaBank was subjected to heavy penalties by the US, was there a public outcry. The two men have yet to stand on the front lines. They have done as little as possible. The result has been deadly.

The Ministry of Finance has performed poorly. The new government has been indecisive in dealing with official holidays, labor strikes, and other issues. It has attempted to please everyone, only to increase labor vs. management opposition, and instill labor and management doubts about the government's position. As approval ratings plummeted, the Executive Yuan hastily proposed "expanding investments", hoping to boost economic performance. But its core business plan was to provide SOEs with 345 billion NT in subsidies. It is not addressing what ails the nation. Too much private sector hot money is seeking a destination. Government policy should lead private investment in the right direction. So why is it increasing investment in state-owned enterprises? A closer look reveals that even Taipower's "renting" of emergency power generation equipment is classified as part of the new government's investment plan. This reveals not only a lack of vision, but number inflation.

To boost domestic investment, the government should focus on short-term policy that optimizes the investment environment, encourages private investment, and reduces the impact of the weak international economy of Taiwan. Long-term policy must solve the structural problems of our industrial structure and aging population. But the moment President Tsai took office, she put labor disputes first. She personally encouraged strikes and protests. She adopted exactly the opposite approach. This was particularly unwise. Besides, economic restructuring is a huge project. One can devote ten years to it and still have nothing to show.

The new government faces widespread discontent. As it attempts to grow the economy, it must ask itself: Is it applying force in the wrong place?

政府拚經濟是否用錯洪荒之力？
2016-09-05 聯合報

台灣民意基金會的民調顯示，民眾對新政府執政百日的整體評分僅六十一分，勉強及格，其中逾四成五對政府經濟成績不滿意。該基金會董事長游盈隆說，不滿意經濟表現，是總統聲望急速下滑的主因，也意味蜜月期將結束。親綠的民調結果尚且如此，其他機構民調則更嚴重，皆直指經濟、兩岸是民眾最感不滿之處。

過去一年半，台灣的經濟猶如困在見不到光的長長隧道中，景氣燈號一直難脫藍燈，出口連十七衰，是史上最長衰退期。國人對經濟衰疲的不耐，已直接投射在國民黨選情的大崩壞上，現在又逐漸轉向對民進黨的失望。蔡總統把「經濟結構轉型」列為五大施政項目之首，顯示她深知人民對重振經濟的期盼；但新政府連連突槌，忙於收拾危機，民眾幾乎看不到任何拚經濟的作為。以民眾失望情緒的膨脹速度，以陸客衰退對觀光產業衝擊的不斷擴大，人們對林全內閣的不滿，恐怕很快會直撲蔡英文而去。

蔡英文無法有效統合「黨」和「政」這兩匹馬車，又不能改變台灣長期以來「政治掛帥」的文化，這是新政府拚經濟難有起色的主因。閣揆林全本身雖是財金專家，但他對經濟、產業並不熟稔；加上政治手感欠缺，百日來他一直困陷在四面八方而來的大小事件中，與各項爭議糾纏奮戰，根本無暇回神照顧財經事務。也因此，林全內閣雖有「財經內閣」之名，但財經發動機始終未能點火。

此外，林內閣任命不少藍營官員，原是寄望「老將帶新人」，做到政策無縫接軌；然而，蔡政府的路線卻從「用人不疑」一路向「勿用疑人」傾倒。林全原寄望國發會主委陳添枝打造「大國發會」，成為行政院最權威、縝密的幕僚機構；但陳添枝在新政府角色尷尬，「老藍男」的指指點點，使他無法像其他「正綠旗」的政委般有效號令各部會。也因此，國發會跨部會協調財經政策的功能未能彰顯，拚經濟的成果自然大打折扣。

其餘三個財金部會——經濟部、財政部與金管會，則是「若有似無」的存在。經濟部長李世光一直忙著替蔡總統的「非核家園」政策找尋實踐路徑，經濟部從上到下一直圍繞著能源議題打轉，讓外界質疑李世光究竟是「能源部長」還是「經濟部長」？也因此，對於民眾關切的「經濟結構轉型」問題，經濟部反而毫無著墨。財政部與金管會兩位首長則始終罕見露臉，直到兆豐銀遭美國重罰後引發輿論譁然，兩人仍未站上第一線積極處理，「把官做小了」是其致命傷。

財金部會表現不佳，加上新政府在處理勞工七天例休及罷工等議題上的瞻前顧後，想要兩面討好卻反而加劇了勞資對立，勞、資雙方都對政府的立場打了大問號。更值得注意的是，在民調直落之際，行政院倉促提出「擴大投資方案」，希望提振經濟表現；但其核心計畫是提出三千四百億元的國營事業擴大投資方案，卻顯有「不對症下藥」之憂。原因是，目前是民間游資太多，找不到去處，政府政策應該引領民間投資方向才對，怎麼反而回頭擴大國營事業投資？再仔細檢視其計畫內容，連台電向國外「租用」緊急發電設備都列為投資計畫之一，可見此方案不僅缺乏遠見，更有灌水之嫌。

要提振國內投資，政府短期施政主軸應著重於優化投資環境，鼓勵民間投資，減少國際景氣疲弱對台灣的衝擊；中長期施政，則是要解決我國產業結構與人口老化等結構性問題。但蔡總統一上台，就先把勞資爭議推上檯面，親自鼓勵罷工和抗爭，都是反其道而行的作法，殊為不智。更別提，經濟結構轉型是鉅大工程，耗費十年都未必能有所成。

面對民怨之海，新政府首要檢討：拚經濟的「洪荒之力」是否用錯了地方？