Taiwan and the Thucydides Trap

Taiwan and the Thucydides Trap
United Daily News Editorial (Taipei, Taiwan, ROC) 
A Translation 
September 23, 2016

Executive Summary: Following the G20 meeting in Hangzhou, the domestic and foreign media began paying closer attention to the Mainland's analysis of global political and economic issues. As Gideon Rachman, author of "Orientalism" noted, following the global financial crisis, political and economic forces shifted toward the East, in particular Mainland China. The rapid rise of China has the potential of lifting up emerging Asian nations. China's rise and theirs go hand in hand. As a result some Western nations have become increasingly apprehensive about Mainland China's international influence. Then there are the United States and China, which some believe are caught in a Thucydides Trap.

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Following the G20 meeting in Hangzhou, the domestic and foreign media began paying closer attention to the Mainland's analysis of global political and economic issues. As Gideon Rachman, author of "Orientalism" noted, following the global financial crisis, political and economic forces shifted toward the East, in particular Mainland China. The rapid rise of China has the potential of lifting up emerging Asian nations. China's rise and theirs go hand in hand. As a result some Western nations have become increasingly apprehensive about Mainland China's international influence. Then there are the United States and China, which some believe are caught in a Thucydides Trap.

In 2012 Harvard University political science professor Graham Allison published an article related to this in the Financial Times. But a truly thought-provoking incident took place last September. Xi Jinping visited the United States and made reference to the “Thucydides Trap”, something familiar only to Western political elites. Xi showed that Chinese leaders are increasingly comfortable with Western political rhetoric and global communications. Athenian historian Thucydides noted how fifth century BC Sparta found itself faced with the rise of Athens. Allison touted the term "Thucydides Trap", and noted how the rise of new powers provokes fear among existing powers. Both sides respond by attempting to seize the initiative. Allison warned about a head on collision between the current US hegemon and a rising China. China's political system remains highly centralized. Yet its leaders invoke Western historical precedents to challenge Western hegemony and advocate mutual respect and win-win. This is a highly intriguing situation.

Xi Jinping used the Thucydides Trap to make another important point. This one hit Western powers squarely in their sore spot. Upon entering the 21st century, long term global economic power has apparently shifted from West to East. The focus of economic thought has similarly turned to the East. After 2008, the United States, European nations, and other developed nations have been subject to internal bottlenecks. They have found it difficult to sustain their past economic advantages, and their military, political, and ideological dominance. First, the US hegemon once supported political democracy and economic freedom. In recent years however, nationalism, isolationism, and protectionism have gained traction. This year's US presidential election focuses on its loss of global dominance. Furthermore, Mainland China hosted the G20. This provided it with its first opportunity since joining the WTO to promote tariff reduction for new WTO members. The hope is that new members may help China become the world's largest market, and show that the United States is conservative while China is open.

Second, US allies have their own difficulties. Europe must deal with radical right wingers. The refugee problem amounts to riding a tiger. Economic growth remains sluggish. Brexit has rendered Europe unable to help the United States. Japan, in the Asian Pacific, remains in dire economic straits. Southeast Asian nations have now adopted a two-pronged strategy. They are friendly with both major powers. US allies are either unable to cope with their own problems, or they have their own plans. China is gathering economic strength. It is bringing benefits to its neighbors. It is accumulating power, making US political and economic dominance harder to maintain.

Previous CCP leaders resorted to more authoritarian language to depict China as one of the world's major powers. Xi Jinping put it bluntly. The US should not fall into the foregoing trap. He stressed that under the new big power relationship, China seeks to avoid conflicts and confrontation, to promote mutual respect and win-win cooperation. It advocates the avoidance of error, deceit, and emotionalism.  It argues that bilateral cooperation at all levels will ensure a better understanding of each others' positions. Xi exhibited a more "mature" political style that shrugged off Western nations' stereotype of Mainland China as a nation “beyond the pale”.

Consider the matter pragmatically. The key to preventing the Thucydides Trap from becoming a reality, is seeking common interests between the two nations, and subjecting the power struggle to risk management. On the eve of this year's G20 meeting, the two nations announced the approval of the Paris Climate Accord. That is one example. Nevertheless the rise and expansion of a new power continues to inspire fear and reaction on the part of the current hegemon. If in the future nationalist arguments prevail, or neither side is willing to compromise, war could erupt. By then, Washington, Beijing, and Taipei, constrained by political and economic considerations, will face a very dangerous predicament.

For this reason, Taipei must adopt a strategic overview of the situation. It must communicate with the Mainland much better than it has. It must formulate its own foreign policy vision, knowledge, and skills, as soon as possible. Otherwise, Taiwan will find itself relegated to the margins. By then it will be too late.

聯合／台灣不可不知的修昔底德陷阱
2016-09-23 03:55 聯合報 聯合報社論

杭州G20會議後，國內外媒體對中國大陸在全球政經話語權的引導及詮釋能力的評估似乎更上層樓，多所討論。一如《東方化》一書作者拉赫曼（G. Rachman）所說，金融海嘯後的全球政經趨勢更朝向東方聚焦，尤以中國為重。而中國大陸快速崛起，又有潛力日增的亞洲新興國家相隨，令西方國家對中國的國際影響力感到憂懼，遂有美、中兩國陷入「修昔底德陷阱」（the Thucydides trap）的說法。

此一說法雖早見於二○一二年哈佛大學政治學教授艾利森發表在《金融時報》的文章，但真正引人深思，是去年九月習近平藉訪美之機回應西方政治菁英方才通曉的「修昔底德陷阱」之說，顯示中國愈來愈懂得使用西式語言與全球溝通。艾利森借雅典史學家修昔底德描述西元前五世紀斯巴達面臨雅典崛起之情境，提出「修昔底德陷阱」一詞，指出新崛起的強權會引發既有強權的恐懼，使雙方以戰爭手段搶奪主導權的可能性升高，旨在預警當今霸權的美國和日漸竄起的強權中國須戒慎正面衝突的宿命。而政治體制仍處高度集權的中國，其領導人卻利用源自於挑戰霸權的西方經典歷史案例，向國際傳達所謂相互尊重與雙贏的強國樣貌，令人玩味。

習近平回應修昔底德陷阱觀點的另一個重要之處，在於該比喻恰恰好擊中西方國家的痛處。全球進入廿一世紀後，世界經濟實力出現由西往東的長期板塊移動，發展思維的焦點也轉向東方，二○○八年後美國與歐洲等國家發展則受制於內部瓶頸，難以維繫往昔利用經濟優勢帶動軍事、政治、意識形態的主導形勢。首先，過去支撐美國擴張霸權的政治民主、經濟自由開放兩大思維，近年遭到國家主義、孤立主義、保護主義的劇烈衝擊，其效應在今年的美國總統大選展露無遺，也削損其全球政經霸主的光環。何況，中國藉主辦本屆G20的機會，通過入世至今首次更動的「加入ＷＴＯ關稅減讓表修正案」，意欲迎接各國前來襄助中國成為全球最大市場，呈現出美、中兩國一保守、一開放的迥異姿態。

其次，美國的盟友也各有難關，如歐洲盛行的極右派激進言論、騎虎難下的難民問題、遲滯的經濟成長，乃至英國退歐激起的仿效危機，都使歐洲無力協助美國。而亞太地區的日本仍深陷經濟欲振乏力的困境，東南亞國家則採取兩手策略，與兩大強權分別保持友好。於是，盟友或因自顧不暇，或各有盤算，加上中國以強大經濟實力，澤被四鄰所累積的助力，皆使美國維繫政經霸主地位漸感不易。

相較於先前中共領導人多使用東方威權色彩的語言敘述中國融入世界的大國想像，習近平則直言中、美關係不可落入前述的陷阱，強調中國要建立的新形態大國關係是不衝突、不對抗、相互尊重與雙贏的合作，並主張要避免錯誤算計與情緒性決策，透過兩國各層面互動，對彼此思維有較完整與正確的解讀等說法，更演示出一種「成熟的」大國風範，擺脫西方國家眼中「化外之邦」的刻板印象。

務實來看，要擊破修昔底德陷阱的預言，關鍵在美、中兩國能否找出共同的利益，將權力的競逐轉化為風險管理，本屆Ｇ20會議前夕兩國宣布批准《巴黎氣候協定》，即為一例。但除此之外，崛起及擴張中的新強權vs.恐懼和反制的既有霸權故事仍在上演。倘若未來民族或國家主義的論調屢被提及，抑或雙方獨鍾自我利益的算計而寸步不讓，則走向衝突與戰爭的可能性恐將大增。屆時，政經兩面向多受制於美、中的台灣，必將面臨極險峻的困境。

有鑑於此，台灣不僅應全面審視這場強權競逐態勢，更須對中國大陸外交溝通能力已大幅提升為戒，盡速強化自身外交領域的視野、智識及運作技巧。否則，若台灣的聲音淪為邊緣之言，即為時已晚。