Xi-Obama Summit and Sino-US Power Politics

Xi-Obama Summit and Sino-US Power Politics
United Daily News Editorial (Taipei, Taiwan, ROC) 
A Translation 
September 7, 2016

Executive Summary: During the 2008 Beijing Olympics, the Chinese mainland threw open its doors to the outside world. During the Hangzhou G20 summit, it offered an even grander view of the Mainland. The heads of the world's top 20 economies, along with leaders of the major international economic organizations, gathered in Hangzhou. This summit is considered the most important international conference since the CCP founded the PRC. It announced to the world that China had arrived.

Full Text Below:

During the 2008 Beijing Olympics, the Chinese mainland threw open its doors to the outside world. During the Hangzhou G20 summit, it offered an even grander view of the Mainland. The heads of the world's top 20 economies, along with leaders of the major international economic organizations, gathered in Hangzhou. This summit is considered the most important international conference since the CCP founded the PRC. It announced to the world that China had arrived.

When it first joined the G20, the Mainland merely wanted to be a respected partner. It did not expect to become its leader. At the time, Beijing thought the G20 might be a Western trap, intended to force Mainland China take on more responsibility for global governance, in order to slow its internal development. But in 2012, when Xi Jinping came to power, the Mainland's low profile strategy changed to one of "showing the world what China can do”. This raised eyebrows in neighboring nations and alarmed the United States. It also made Mainland China more actively involved in international affairs. As Xi Jinping said earlier during the Enterprise Summit, China's development has benefited from the international community, therefore China is willing to provide the international community with more public goods.

Consider the international situation. The Mainland government is one of the few governments willing and able to promote global economic and trade relations. The 2008 financial crisis was not that long ago. Global economic growth remains sluggish. This year the projected growth rate is a mere 2.9%. The Mainland is the world's economic engine. It constitutes 26.4% of the world economy. Its development affects the prosperity of the entire world. Therefore the Mainland's development strategy, including the One Belt, One Road (OBOR), the AIIB, RCEP, and FTAs with Japan and South Korea, are matters of global concern. As the host of the Hangzhou summit, the Mainland made economic growth its theme.

The summit sidelines included over 20 bilateral summits. The most notable was Xi Jinping's meeting with Barack Obama. When Obama's plane arrived, negligence on the part of security and ground personnel forced him to exit Air Force One from the rear of the aircraft, leading to a minor flareup. The White House tried to explain that it was a careless mistake. But the media pounced on the issue and alleged that a rising China deliberately "belittled" the US.

In fact, Beijing had no desire to embarrass the United States. On the contrary, the Chinese mainland deliberately avoided giving the impression that an emerging power was challenging a current power. This was why Beijing arranged for an informal meeting between Xi and Obama. It wanted to establish a "new great power relationship”. The Mainland deliberately chose the Xihu State Guest House for the meeting. This was where US President Richard Nixon and Chinese Premier Zhou Enlai signed the Sino-US Joint Communiques in 1972. The Mainland was deliberately reminding everyone that the Cold War between the two nations was over, and that relations between them were already normalized.

Obama is an outgoing president. Therefore the Xi-Obama meeting will be the last meeting between the two. The Mainland hopes to revisit and summarize recent Sino-US relations. More importantly, the United States will have a new president by the end of this year. Beijing hopes to stabilize Sino-US relations before that.

Some think Xi Jinping need not concern himself with an outgoing president. Sino-US issues are complex. They need not be resolved during the summit. By contrast, Obama needs Mainland Chinese cooperation to secure his legacy. That being the case, Beijing need not cooperate with foreign policies not in the Mainland's best interests, such as Asian-Pacific rebalancing and the TPP. But it will certainly be willing to cooperate with policies in both sides' interests, such as the Paris Climate Accord.

As a result, on the eve of the G20 summit, Obama and Xi Jinping each ratified the Paris Climate Accord and submitted it to UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon. This drew global attention. For this agreement to enter into force, it must be approved by those nations responsible for 55% of the world's carbon emissions. The United States and Mainland China alone contribute 40% of all emissions. This constitutes a giant step forward for global warming. Obama's delight was palpable.

The Hangzhou summit was a golden opportunity for the two major powers to meet. Mainland China set the stage, and gave Asian-Pacific nations the opportunity to make new choices. Former Australian Prime Minister Paul Keating said Australia needs a new foreign policy that responds to China's inevitable rise, and the United States' change from a dominant power, to a power that must compromise. Keating's words echoed the sentiments of many nations.

Taiwan was not invited to the meeting. That may be why the media and the government focused on the Xi-Obama summit. They wondered whether the two men discussed Taiwan. They asked the United States to make clear whether Taiwan's interests were harmed. As everyone knows, the global situation following the Hangzhou summit is significantly changed. Taiwan must look beyond the old Washington/Beijing/Taipei relationship. Only then can it accurately perceive the changing global situation.

從杭州歐習會看中美爭鋒的表裡
2016-09-07 聯合報

如果二○○八北京奧運是中國大陸向世界打開門戶，杭州Ｇ20峰會則是另一番勝景。全世界經濟規模前二十名國家之元首，加上各主要國際經濟組織的領導人齊聚杭州，這次峰會被視為中共建政以來最重要的國際會議，向全球發出「中國走向世界」的訊號。

當初加入Ｇ20，中國大陸只希望在其間扮演受尊敬的合作夥伴角色，並未想到引領。當時，北京擔心Ｇ20是西方的「陷阱」，意圖讓中國負擔更多全球治理責任，以拖慢大陸內部的發展。二○一二年習近平上台後，把原先的「韜光養晦」策略轉成「有所作為」，這讓四鄰側目、美國戒慎，卻也讓中國更積極參與國際事務。如同習近平稍早在企業峰會所言：中國的發展得益於國際社會，也願為國際社會提供更多公共產品。

放眼國際，中國大陸是目前少數有能力、也有意願促進全球發展與經貿的經濟體之一。二○○八年的金融危機迄今，全球經濟成長仍然緩慢，今年預估成長率僅二．九％。它也是全球經濟的火車頭，對世界經濟的貢獻率達廿六．四％，其發展攸關全球榮枯。因此，大陸的發展戰略無論是亞投行的一帶一路、ＲＣＥＰ、乃至中日韓自貿區，皆受全球關切。做為杭州峰會的東道主，中國更將發展增長設定為峰會的優先議題。

在這場峰會場邊，還有超過廿場的雙邊高峰會，其中最受矚目的，就是習近平與歐巴馬的會晤。在歐巴馬專機抵達時，由於安全與地勤的疏忽，他被迫從「空軍一號」的機腹下機，引起一場小爭端。白宮雖極力解釋這是無心之失，但所有媒體都藉題發揮，描繪崛起的中國如何刻意「貶低」美國的地位。

事實上，未必是北京有意要給美國難看；相反的，中國刻意避免留下新興大國挑戰傳統大國的印象；這也是北京極力經營不拘形式的「歐習會」，意圖建構「新型大國關係」的原因。這次中方精心安排的歐習會地點，是一九七二年美國總統尼克森與中共總理周恩來簽署《中美聯合公報》的西湖國賓館，便是有意喚醒兩國歷經冷戰對抗走向「關係正常化」的記憶。

由於歐巴馬即將卸任，這次歐習會是兩個領導人最後一次雙邊會晤，大陸希望能對近年中美關係做出回顧和總結。更重要的是，面對美國年底將產生新總統的不確定性，北京希望設法穩住中美關係。

有人認為，習近平其實無需在意一位即將卸任的總統，中美間問題千頭萬緒，本就無法一時三刻解決，有些議題拖過峰會無妨。相對的，反而是歐巴馬更需要中方配合，才能維持其特定政治遺產。在這種思維下，對於不符大陸利益的外交政策，如亞太再平衡與ＴＰＰ等，北京自無必要與對方合作；但對於雙方利益與共的，如《巴黎氣候協定》，中方當然樂於配合。

也因此，在Ｇ20峰會前夕，歐巴馬與習近平分別將《巴黎氣候協定》的批准文書交給聯合國秘書長潘基文，受到全球矚目。這項協定若要生效，必須獲得全球碳排放量五五％以上國家的批准，而美、中兩個排放量最大國家的總量已達四十％，讓全球改善暖化前景邁開大步。歐巴馬的欣喜之情更是溢於言表。

經過杭州峰會，中美兩大強權似乎來到了一個黃金交叉點。中國登上主導的舞台，也讓亞太各國面臨新的選擇關頭。澳洲前總理基亭即表示，澳洲需要全新的外交政策，來因應中國「無可避免」的崛起，以及美國「從主導到妥協」的角色轉變。基亭之言，說出不少國家之心聲。

對台灣而言，或許因未獲邀與會，媒體與政府的關注焦點仍然圍繞在「歐習會」是否談及台灣問題，並汲汲要求美國澄清沒有損及台灣權益。殊不知，杭州峰會後的全球局勢已大幅改觀，台灣必須跨出舊有的美中台視野，才能看清楚變化中的全球大局。