United Daily News Editorial (Taipei, Taiwan, ROC)
A Translation
September 20, 2016
Executive Summary: This newspaper's survey on cross-Strait relations, yielded results that were expected and unexpected. Not surprisingly, the current cross-Strait situation is close to what observers expected from Tsai Ing-wen before she was elected. Surprisingly however, Tsai Ing-wen believed that holding high the banner of "maintaining the status quo" would win over the US and Japan, appease the CCP, and calm in the dispute. The fact is, exchanges have chilled, tourism has fallen, and uncertainty has increased. Dissatisfaction with the government's decisions mas made Tsai Ing-wen's highly touted “maintaining the status quo” ever more difficult to maintain.
Full Text Below:
Eight blue camp county chiefs and city mayors are touring the Mainland, hoping to restart cross-Strait exchanges. But the Presidential Office and the Executive Yuan insist that cross-Strait exchanges not be based on preconditions. Early this month, political appointee Chang Ching-sen said "Mainland tourists are those we most need as friends". The Executive Yuan denied that this was its official position. Those scoring the Tsai government's handling of cross-Strait relations are giving it a failing grade.
This newspaper's annual survey on cross-Strait relations found that people are unhappy with Tsai Ing-wen's mismanagement of cross-Strait relations. They worry about escalating bilateral tensions. The survey reflects peoples' opinions on cross-Strait relations. It also reflects the probable direction for cross-Strait relations in the near future.
According to this newspaper's past surveys, cross-Strait relations have inevitably experienced ups and downs. They have waxed and waned. They have been on the brink of crisis only in isolated areas. The latest survey however, found that only people to people relations remain stable and warm. All other areas are on the brink of crisis. In particular, the diplomatic peace has come to an abrupt end. Cross-Strait diplomatic war has for the first time crossed a red line. The poll on the cross-Strait status quo shows the diplomatic war in a genuine state of crisis. Can the government prevent the diplomatic war from spiraling out of control? That depends on the Tsai government's ability to respond.
The Hsiung Feng III missile fiasco revealed the lack of national security measures. The South China Sea arbitration fiasco revealed the lack of a national security overview. Can the Tsai government handle cross-Strait tensions? The public cannot help but wonder. People do not believe the Tsai government is capable of handling cross-Strait issues. They worry about the deterioration in cross-Strait trust. Yet strangely enough, they do not believe the two sides will go to war. But we would remind the Tsai Government. People are unconcerned about the outbreak of a cross-Strait war only because cross-Strait exchanges in recent years have had a moderating effect on relations. That goodwill must be maintained. One must not be emboldened by it. The cross-Strait status quo cannot be maintained out of thin air. Those who assume it can are misjudging the situation.
We would also remind national leaders to not idly wait for change, or bury their heads in the sand. That will only lead to the loss of any advantage. Before the election Tsai Ing-wen repeatedly pledged to "maintain the status quo". But people no longer believe the status quo can be maintained. The Tsai government has refused to state its position on the 1992 Consensus. It feigns confidence even though cross-Strait channels of communication have been cut. To the public, this is the main reason cross-Strait relations have changed. The DPP has long trumpeted the "China Threat Theory". But according to our poll, the number of people concerned about the Mainland being more powerful than Taiwan has reached a new low. This shows that DPP hostility toward the Mainland is a relic of the Cold War and must be thoroughly updated.
Another issue is even more worthy of the ruling government's attention. Public perception of Taiwan's future often differs from the perception of those in power. Sometimes it is diametrically opposed. Ma Ying-jeou championed "no reunification, no independence, and no use of force". Yet the green camp relentlessly characterized this as "pro-China". During his term, advocacy of Taiwan independence reached new highs. By contrast, Tsai Ing-wen's "maintaining the status quo" is perceived as "soft Taiwan independence". Yet only four months into her term, the percentage of people who advocate reunification has reached new highs. The Sunflower Student Movement showed that the public thought the Ma government had tilted too far to the Mainland. As a result, Taiwan independence sentiment reached new highs. Conversely, the public is unhappy with the Tsai government's cross-Strait policy, and concerned for its future. As a result, the number of people who advocate reunification has reached new highs. Clearly the public does not necessarily march to the drums of those in power.
Once the Tsai government came to power, the number of people who advocate reunification has increased. But so has the number of people who advocate Taiwan independence. It is often said that 'Circumstances are more powerful than individuals”. Perhaps that is why many who once advocated immediate independence have slammed on the brakes and now advocate gradual independence. Their numbers too have reached new highs. In fact, the increase in pro-reunification and Taiwan independence sentiment may be backlashes to pressure from Beijing and soft Taiwan independence. The increase in the number of people at both ends of reunification vs. independence spectrum, draws from those in the middle who would "maintain the status quo indefinitely". In other words, Tsai Ing-wen's cross-Strait policy has led to an increasingly divided society detrimental to Taiwan's future.
This newspaper's survey on cross-Strait relations, yielded results that were expected and unexpected. Not surprisingly, the current cross-Strait situation is close to what observers expected from Tsai Ing-wen before she was elected. Surprisingly however, Tsai Ing-wen believed that holding high the banner of "maintaining the status quo" would win over the US and Japan, appease the CCP, and calm in the dispute. The fact is, exchanges have chilled, tourism has fallen, and uncertainty has increased. Dissatisfaction with the government's decisions mas made Tsai Ing-wen's highly touted “maintaining the status quo” ever more difficult to maintain.
現狀，已非蔡英文以為的現狀
2016-09-20 聯合報
藍營八縣市首長赴大陸拚觀光，希望重啟兩岸正向交流，府院卻力斥兩岸交流不應預設前提。月初，政委張景森喊話「陸客是我們最需要交的朋友」，行政院也否認是「政院立場」。不過，對於蔡政府處理兩岸關係的表現，民眾則給了完全不及格的評價。
本報兩岸關係年度調查顯示，民眾非僅不滿意蔡英文處理兩岸關係的表現，更對兩岸之間升高的緊張態勢感到相當憂慮。這份調查，反映了台灣民眾對於當前兩岸關係的主客觀看法，也指出了兩岸關係在可預期未來的可能走向。
本報歷次調查，兩岸之間各領域的關係不免起伏，或弛或張，最多是部分領域升高到緊張邊緣。但這次調查，除民間關係仍屬穩定和緩外，各領域幾已全面性瀕臨緊張；尤其外交休兵結束，兩岸外交競爭更首度跨越警戒線，進入真正的緊張狀態。民調反映的兩岸「現狀」，顯然正快速遷移。如何防止兩岸之間出現螺旋式升高的激盪互撞，考驗著蔡政府的應對能力。
從雄三誤射暴露國安空虛、南海仲裁反映國安無措來看，蔡政府能否穩健應對兩岸緊張關係，不免令人擔心。耐人尋味的是，民眾雖不信任蔡政府處理兩岸問題的能力，也憂心兩岸關係惡化，卻又寧可相信兩岸不會爆發戰爭。就此而言，我們要提醒蔡政府：民眾不擔心兩岸爆發戰爭，其實是近年兩岸交流對雙方的關係具有緩和作用，這種善意必須維持，切不可以因此有恃無恐，以為兩岸現狀可以憑空維持下去，那恐將錯估形勢。
我們也要提醒，國家領導人不能只求以拖待變，或明知不安卻埋首沙堆逆勢而為，那只會使自己的優勢喪失。蔡英文選前一再保證要「維持兩岸現狀」，但越來越多民眾已不相信「現狀」能繼續維持。蔡政府迴避「九二共識」，卻又對另闢蹊徑維繫兩岸溝通裝作很有把握的樣子；在民眾心裡，卻明白這正是兩岸關係生變的主因。民進黨長期強調「中國威脅論」，但根據這次民調，不擔心大陸強盛不利台灣的民眾卻創下新高。這顯示，民進黨對中國的敵意其實還殘留在冷戰年代的思維，必須徹底更新。
更值得執政者警惕的是，民眾對台灣前途的看法，往往並不隨掌權者的主觀意志而移轉，有時反逆向而行。馬英九標舉「不統、不獨、不武」，屢被綠營質疑「親中」，其任內民眾主張「獨立」的聲音達到高點。相對的，蔡英文強調「維持現狀」，被認為是「柔性台獨」，但其上任才四個月，主張「統一」的民眾比率已創新高。如果說太陽花學運反映了民眾認為馬政府兩岸政策過度傾斜，使當年的台獨音量擴到最大；那麼，民眾對蔡政府兩岸政策的不滿與對未來的憂心，也讓主張統一的民眾比率攀上新高。可見，民意對掌權者的主觀意志並不買帳。
蔡政府上台後，不只統一的聲音增加，主張獨立的民眾比率也提高了。但或許看清「形勢比人強」，部分原急獨民眾踩煞車觀望，因此主獨者增加的比率主要集中在「緩獨」，並創新高。其實，統獨比率的升高還混雜著對於北京進逼與「柔性台獨」的反彈或呼應；必須注意的是，統獨兩端增加的民眾，正是從光譜中間的「永遠維持現狀」向兩端挪移。換言之，蔡英文的兩岸政策已導致社會益發分歧，這對台灣是不利的。
本報兩岸關係調查結果，有些在意料之中，有些則在意料之外。不意外的是，兩岸當前態勢，並未脫外界對蔡英文當選總統前的預期；意外的是，蔡英文似乎以為只要高舉「維持兩岸現狀」大旗，即可拉攏美日、安撫中共、平息內爭。事實卻是，不論就外在情勢或內部民意而言，冷卻的交流、緊縮的觀光、對前景不明的憂慮、對政府決策的不滿，蔡英文標榜的「現狀」如今都已難以維持了。
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