The Tsai Government Must Calmly Seek a New Cross-Strait Consensus

The Tsai Government Must Calmly Seek a New Cross-Strait Consensus
United Daily News Editorial (Taipei, Taiwan, ROC) 
A Translation 
September 24, 2016

Executive Summary: Taiwan has definitely been shut out of the ICAO conference. It cannot attend the conference as a “special guest” as it did three years ago. This amounts to a major diplomatic defeat for the Tsai government. Mainland officials have also issued an unprecedented statement, making clear this was the handiwork of the Tsai government. President Tsai must now remain calm and not overreact. After all, this was the expected reaction of the Mainland to the DPP government's rejection of the 1992 Consensus. The DPP government must now reestablish trust with the Mainland. It must reach a new consensus as the basis for consultations, in order to avoid further harm to Taiwan.

Full Text Below:

Taiwan has definitely been shut out of the ICAO conference. It cannot attend the conference as a “special guest” as it did three years ago. This amounts to a major diplomatic defeat for the Tsai government. Mainland officials have also issued an unprecedented statement, making clear this was the handiwork of the Tsai government. President Tsai must now remain calm and not overreact. After all, this was the expected reaction of the Mainland to the DPP government's rejection of the 1992 Consensus. The DPP government must now reestablish trust with the Mainland. It must reach a new consensus as the basis for consultations, in order to avoid further harm to Taiwan.

The Ma government was able to achieve a series of major breakthroughs and take part in international activities precisely because it recognized the 1992 Consensus. The Ma government affirmed the 1992 Consensus as the political foundation for cross-Strait relations. It affirmed that cross-Strait relations were not state to state relations. That established trust between the Mainland and Taiwan, and enabled Taiwan to take part in international activities through a series of pragmatic arrangements. But the situation has changed. The Tsai government has stubbornly refused to recognize the 1992 Consensus. Therefore the Mainland's pragmatic arrangements are now null and void. Being shut out of the ICAO conference was 100% predictable.

Ever since President Tsai took office, she has misjudged the situation on both cross-Strait and national security matters. She had too much faith in purported help from the United States, and too little appreciation for the Mainland's adherence to fundamental principles. The Mainland made abundantly clear that Taiwan's participation in international activities was predicated upon recognition of the 1992 Consensus. Yet the Tsai government ignored its warnings. It assumed that repeated US expressions of support, along with behind the scenes negotiations, would ensure Taiwan's eventual attendance. But in the end it was forced to admit it was shut out completely.

The fiasco was a major warning for the Tsai government. It confirmed Mainland leader Xi Jinping's declaration that "without a solid foundation, the earth will move and the mountains will shake". That was not an offhand remark. That summed up the Mainland's fundamental posture. The Mainland's basic position is crystal clear. As long as the DPP government recognizes the 1992 Consensus, all issues are negotiable. During the Ma era, the Mainland honored that commitment. Critics have demeaned Taiwan's participation in international activities under those conditions as merely temporary measures, rife with uncertainty. But the international reality is that the vast majority of nations and international organizations recognize the one China principle. For organizations that require the status of a sovereign state, even the United States only supports Taiwan's participation, not its membership. Also, the ICAO immediately issued a statement explaining that it adheres to the one-China principle, and that Taiwan's past participation was exclusively the result of invitation by the Mainland. Taiwan may participate in the activities of international organizations only with the blessing of the Mainland. There is no other way.

Therefore the first priority for cross-Strait relations at this stage is to reaffirm the nature of cross-Strait relations. If the Tsai government cannot bring itself to reaffirm the one China premise or the 1992 Consensus, then Taiwan will be less and less able to participate in international activities. The cross-Strait diplomatic war could then resume at any time. This obviously is not a blessing for people on either side, and definitely not a blessing for Taiwan.

The most worrisome aspect of this is the Tsai government's continuing refusal to face international reality. It even cites public sentiment as an excuse, claiming that the people of Taiwan "chose democracy and have been subject to unfair treatment". In fact most people on Taiwan want to maintain the status quo. They want the government to negotiate with the Mainland, to maintain Taiwan's status as a political entity, and to ensure economic growth and international participation. The Tsai government's refusal to recognize the 1992 Consensus has set back cross-Strait relations. If the Tsai government truly values public opinion, it will listen carefully to what people have to say about cross-Strait relations. It will acknowledge the Mainland's core concerns. It will as soon as possible, adopt a pragmatic attitude regarding the political foundation for cross-Strait exchanges, and arrive at a new consensus.

The Mainland refuses to allow the Tsai government to participate in international activities. We must acknowledge that fact. At the same time, we must not allow this to become a sticking point for the two sides. We hope the Mainland will allow Taiwan greater participation in international activities, particularly on matters of public welfare such as the ICAO and the WHA. Pragmatism on the part of the Mainland will avoid damage to the interests of the public on Taiwan.

The Mainland has noted that Taiwan retains access to international civil aviation data. But if Taiwan cannot participate in ICAO activities, it can only access the relevant information through third nations or business pipeline. The process is arduous, and the information is incomplete. The Mainland must let people understand in a clear and unambiguous manner that aviation safety will not be affected. It must actively provide the relevant data, or allow the relevant organizations and nations and Taiwan to expand technical cooperation. Only then can the public on Taiwan experience the Mainland's sincerity and goodwill. Only then can it prevent cross-Strait political disputes from affecting the public interest.

社論》蔡政府要冷靜 尋求兩岸新共識
2016/9/24 下午 08:14:45  主筆室

台灣確定未獲國際民航組織邀請，無法如3年前一樣以「特邀貴賓」身分出席大會，這是蔡政府在外交領域遭受的重大挫敗。對此，大陸官方也在第一時間發出聲明，直指這是蔡政府所造成。蔡總統此刻宜冷靜，不要過度反應，畢竟這是大陸針對台灣拒絕九二共識的預期性作為；民進黨政府應該做的是和大陸累積互信、協商建立新共識，以免再對台灣造成傷害。

事實上，馬政府時期之所以能在國際參與上接連取得重大突破，就是跟九二共識有關。也正因為當時台灣方面認同九二共識這一政治基礎，並確認了兩岸關係非國與國的性質，才讓大陸與台灣之間的互信不斷增強，也才有後續針對台灣參與國際組織的一系列務實安排。如今情勢丕變，蔡政府始終對九二共識採取迴避態度，因此大陸做出務實安排的前提也就不復存在，台灣此番未獲國際民航組織邀請自是意料中事。

蔡總統執政後，連續在兩岸和國安議題上發生誤判，過於相信來自美國的所謂協助，又過於輕視大陸對基本原則問題的堅持，因此，雖然大陸多次明確表示台灣參與國際組織相關活動應以九二共識為前提，蔡政府仍然充耳不聞，認為美國已經多次公開聲明支持台灣有意義參與，且私下也在密集進行，因此台灣最終仍會出席，直到最後一刻才肯承認無法參與的事實。

這次事件無疑是對蔡政府的一大警訊，再度證明大陸領導人習近平所謂「基礎不牢、地動山搖」的說法並不只是隨口一說，而是大陸的基本態度。大陸的基本立場其實相當清楚，就是只要確認九二共識，兩岸之間的各種問題都可納入協商，在馬政府時期大陸也兌現了這一承諾。雖然外界批評台灣參與國際組織相關活動都是以臨時方式，充滿不確定性，但國際現實正是如此，世界各國和國際組織絕大多數都認可一中原則，即便美國也只是支持台灣有意義參與那些要求主權國家身分的國際組織活動，並未支持台灣成為其會員。此次國際民航組織也立即發出聲明，解釋該組織是基於一中原則，過去台灣之所以能夠參與是因為大陸主動邀請。這也就意味著，台灣要參與國際組織活動，來自大陸的善意是基本前提，捨此並無他途。

因此，現階段兩岸關係的首要大事就是重新確認兩岸關係的性質，若無法針對九二共識或者一中意涵做出答覆，相信後續台灣參與國際活動的空間只會進一步限縮，兩岸外交戰也將隨時上演，這顯然不是兩岸人民之福，更不是台灣之福。

令人憂慮的是，蔡政府仍然沒有正視這一國際現狀，甚至再度祭出民意作為理由，認為這是因為台灣人民「選擇民主而受到不公平的待遇」，這種說法顯然有待商榷。台灣的主流民意是維持現狀，就是要求政府必須設法與大陸協商，既維護台灣的主體性，又能為台灣的經濟發展和國際參與創造更大可能。蔡政府迄今迴避九二共識導致兩岸關係倒退，若蔡政府真的重視民意，那就應該認真傾聽民眾對兩岸關係的心聲，面對大陸的核心關切，以務實態度盡速和大陸就兩岸交流政治基礎問題進行協商，並協議出一個新的共識。

大陸方面拒絕我方參與國際組織，我們予以尊重，與此同時，我們也不願意看到此次事件演變成兩岸對抗的起點，仍然希望大陸方面能夠給予台灣更廣闊的國際參與空間，特別是有關民眾福祉的相關活動，如WHA和國際民航組織大會等等，需要大陸採取務實舉動避免台灣民眾相關權益受損。

大陸方面指出台灣獲取國際民航資料的管道暢通，但現實卻是台灣若無法參與國際民航組織活動，就只能透過第三國或者商業管道來獲取相關資訊，過程艱辛且資訊並不完整。大陸要以明確、不含糊的態度讓民眾了解，台灣飛安問題不受影響，且要積極主動提供相關數據資料，或者允許相關組織與國家和台灣展開技術性合作，以便解決問題，如此才能讓台灣民眾感受到大陸的善意與誠意，避免兩岸政治糾紛波及民眾利益。